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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Wondering... The Twins didn’t lose anyone in the minor league phase and added two. Does this suggest that the depth of their system is relatively weak?
  2. jorgenswest
    It becomes an issue when they go belly up year 1.
  3. jorgenswest
    There isn't a more un reliable career path than that of a reliever. It is folly to use 2017 stats to project 2018-2020. Go back two years and look at the relievers that received multi-year contracts. John Axford Steve Cishek Jason Motte Tyler Clippard Antonio Bastardo Mark Lowe Tony Barnette Chad Qualls Jonathan Broxton Oliver Perez Shawn Kelley Tony Sipp Ryan Madson Joakim Soria Darren O'Day If Rodney doesn't pitch well, it is easy to cut ties. It is much harder to cut ties when multiple years are committed.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am sure I said somewhere that I would rather the Twins go big for someone like Davis or Darvish or sign an old guy like Sabathia and try to squeeze out a year. This fits the old guy signing. I still don’t like it. Intellectually I know that many of the multi year reliever free agent deals work out badly for the teams. My intellect isn’t taking over here. It should be telling me that the likelihood of Rodney pitching acceptably well in 2018 is similar to many of the relievers recently signed. My gut isn’t impressed with the signing.
  5. jorgenswest
    If he pitches well it won’t be a disappointment.
  6. jorgenswest
    He could be a September addition to the bullpen when rosters expand. The bullpen might be the best spot for 2018 also.
  7. jorgenswest
    ... and if you go back to 2015 both Cobb and Lynn have xFIPs ranked below Kyle Gibson over the last 3 years. Yes. They had serious injuries but that shouldn’t be a plus. What is the likelihood they return to their form of 2012-2014? There might be a few front offices seriously concerned about committing to 4 years of their decline.
  8. jorgenswest
    Just adding context to the statements related to the Morris signing that was used on both sides of the debate.
  9. jorgenswest
    Some context... The contract guaranteed 3/2/2 if Morris accepted the player option. Higuera had signed a 4 year 13 million guaranteed contract early that winter. Other pitchers were getting guarantees of 10 million or more. Baseball was coming out of collusion and salaries were escalating very quickly. The going rate for a top pitcher was going to pass 5 million. Gooden signed a 3 year extension for 15.45 million guaranteed prior to the 1991 season. Three days after the Twins signed Morris, Clemens signed a 4 year extension worth a guaranteed 21.521 with an option for 5.5 million more. Collusion a thing of the past, salaries were escalating and each new contract seemed remarkable to newspapers. The Twins guaranteed 7 million to Morris and 3 days later Clemens got a guarantee of three times as much. The Morris signing was critical to the Twins, but he didn't get Clemens money or even Higuera money. He didn't earn top tier pitcher money until after 1991 when the Blue Jays gave him more than 5 million a year. Relative to Twins signings the commitment was more similar to that of Nolasco or Santana.
  10. jorgenswest

    Morris contract next day

  11. jorgenswest
    There was a very interesting series of articles by Matt Swartz in fangraphs this summer. He looked at several aspects including varying methods for calculating the dollar amount and the aspect of linearity. It makes me wonder about Lynn and Cobb. Lynn is projected by steamer to have 1.3 WAR next year. Over 4 years with decline and chance of injury he might project for 3-4 WAR. A generous projection might give him 6 WAR perhaps declining from something starting above 2 next year. Teams might be in at around 50 million for 4 years to buy that hope of 6 WAR. By steamer Cobb projects better next year at 1.7, but a 6 WAR over the next 4 is reasonable though a little generous. Interesting steamer projected Chatwood at 1.9 fWAR. He is younger and decline isn’t a factor but injury is a factor. If the Cubs projected him at 4.5 WAR over three years his contract is close to market. A team’s ability to project is incredibly important here. The in house work is critical. Teams are getting better but ERA, wins and holds are still overvalued and overpaid. One of his articles shows a premium for FIP vs. ERA that is still present in the market.
  12. jorgenswest
    Preventing opponent runs scored is the major task of the new front office. Their first step was to address catching and emphasize outfield defense. I think both helped to prevent runs. The next task has to be to address pitching. Your trade would go a long way to addressing that need. If the front office is unable to package Dozier and Santana towards getting a front line pitcher, would you consider the performance of the front office to be a failure this winter?
  13. jorgenswest
    Seems like the smart move for the Pirates would be to trade those pieces individually as the White Sox. McCutcheon is a better player than Eaton, but he only has one year left on a reasonable contract. Even with the one year of control, he will get a good return. I think they need to trade him this winter so he retains the value of the compensation pick. The return for Eaton was two prospects better than anyone prospect the Twins gave to offer. McCutcheon is really a comp to Dozier though. Would trading one for the other make sense for the Pirates? Possibly if they were a contender and had a top prospect blocked by McCutcheon. Like Cole, Quintana and Sale both had two years of control last winter. Cole slots in between them in value. Quintana returned an MLB top 10 prospect and an MLB top 100 prospect and two others. Sale netted the number 2 prospect in baseball, a top 30 MLB prospect and two others. The Twins don’t have anyone to match those top prospects. They might have to offer the Pirates their choice of any three prospects in the organization plus one more. The deal of Robertson and Kahnle netted them Blake Rutherford a top 50 prospect and two others. Robertson is more like McCutcheon and Rivero is more like Eaton in terms of control. Rivero should be able to return a top 50 prospect plus a few Cs. The Pirates have an opportunity similar to the White Sox if they are wise about moving their assets. Trading them in one deal would not be wise. The Twins would have to go all in on Cole and gut their system given they won’t have the level of prospects other teams can offer. Thrylos’ trade broken down might be the young players for Cole, McCutcheon for Dozier and Rivero for Santana. McCutcheon and a Dozier are of similar value. Santana and many years of control of a Rivero are of similar value. The Twins could come up with 4 young players to get Cole. The trade is fair. The Pirates won’t need to be fair. They should be patient until they are long term winners for all three players.
  14. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are going to compete for a very good starter in the trade market, they need to go in with all of their cards. They can’t enter those discussions holding back discussions for any of their prospects. They don’t have any premium prospects like those that have been traded on the last year for pitchers. Reservations about gutting the system to get a very good pitcher are reasonable, but that is what it is going to take. Taking the reasonable position of being unwilling to trade Gordon or Lewis or Gonsalves would be a message to trade partners that the Twins aren’t serious about making a deal. I am seriously interested in the Twins acquiring an Archer or Cole. Every prospect is in that discussion.
  15. jorgenswest
    Lance Lynn among Dave Cameron’s free agent land mines. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/
  16. jorgenswest
    The point is that a third catcher can add flexibility on the bench that you don’t get with a first baseman. Teams value that flexibility more in the playoffs but it can add value. I went back to 2000 to find a 1B. Gibbons stuck with Baltimore. He was older and had great OPS in AA the previous year. His bat was ready to be a platoon player. He wasn’t stashed. He played. I can’t find anyone similar to Diaz. Why aren’t there comps to Diaz of a low A rule 5 1B stashed by a team for a season? Catchers get stashed frequently. I don’t think it is the same.
  17. jorgenswest
    Sigh... How about Maddon on the flexibility of a third catcher? http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-cubs/why-maddon-cubs-opted-keep-three-catchers-after-miguel-monteros-return Or maybe Girardi... http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140821&content_id=90729754&vkey=news_milb Astros appreciated the flexibility of a third catcher in the playoffs https://climbingtalshill.com/2017/09/30/astros-most-likely-to-carry-three-catchers-in-the-playoffs/ We disagree on whether a third catcher adds flexibility. Coming back with “This makes no sense” as if no one in their right mind would consider it is just annoying.
  18. jorgenswest
    Except a team might pinch hit for their catcher which makes that third catcher useful. I don’t know if a team will be pinch hitting for their first baseman. The Padres pinch hit for their catchers at least 32 times last year. There will be more but I don’t know how to count the times that they pinch hit for the catcher and then did not go out in the field again. I can’t imagine a team pinch hitting at 1B that many times. Even if they did, there are many players on the team that could play 1B. Diaz brings no worthwhile major league skills to the table. Being able to play 1B isn’t helpful.
  19. jorgenswest
    The challenge with Diaz is that he doesn’t have any skill close to major league ready. Select an up the middle player and they can contribute with the glove and often positional flexibility. Guys who play middle infield or centerfield often can be used as pinch runners. Pitchers can be given low leverage innings. What do you do with Diaz on the bench? He would likely be the worst pinch hit, running and glove option on the bench.
  20. jorgenswest
    Is there a 20 day rule about options? He would have been recalled in September just short of 20 days.
  21. jorgenswest
    Was his first appearance as the 26th man in a double header? Does it matter? He was optioned August 18 and recalled September 4. Does that matter?
  22. jorgenswest
    Do you like Pentecost over Garver? In the long run he could be much better. However, I think he has TJ prior to being drafted and three shoulder surgeries since. As a result he has caught 20 games since 2014. Being selected and stashed will be another year of lost development. He really deserves a chance to play a few full seasons in the minors to develop his catching and have a real shot at a major league career.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think someone could take Burdi with the knowledge he would need to start on the 25 man roster in 2019 and finish his 90 days. At that point, if he needs more minor league time he could be sent out. I would imagine that it will take him some time to regain his command which was a big problem prior to TJ. It is hard to imagine he will be useful before 2020. Winkler is a similar case. He still hasn’t paid off for the Braves after 3 years and many days on the DL.
  24. jorgenswest
    Rule 5 and 60 day DL https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ask-ba-deciphering-disabled-lists-rule-5-draft/#LegrR4ciGcXfx7Rt.97
  25. jorgenswest
    It might be stats. I think more likely it is measuring a player’s long term ceiling vs. their real need to have enough of the 40 man roster devoted to players that can make a 2018 contribution. Anyone they protest by adding now, they can’t drop later this winter. They can remove Slegers and Boshers to make room for a free agent. Stewart and Burdi will be of no help in 2018. They must feel that they can do better than Reed and Bard who might have helped. None of the four have high ceilings.
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