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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would prefer to see Hughes healthy and pitching well as well as the other options get off to good starts.
  2. jorgenswest
    There is no guarantee it goes well and he is ready. Who starts for Rochester April 6? Chattanooga April 5/6?
  3. jorgenswest
    Took a moment to get it but noted and edited.
  4. jorgenswest
    Command will outdo velocity. He had the command to make it effective prior to Tommy John. According to fangraphs, he threw his fastball 81.1% of the time in 2017. That was the most frequent among qualified starters by a huge margin. He threw his fastball more often before TJS in 2015 at 85.4%. His success in the major leagues is due to the effectiveness of his fastball.
  5. jorgenswest
    Sorry. Didn’t mean to suggest there is anything to be concerned about short term. The one year deal is a great deal. His heavy reliance on the fastball I think made him a poor long term contract gamble. I have confidence he will find his fastball that has been very effective.
  6. jorgenswest
    The strike zone map on brooks baseball. Seems like the umpire did a respectable job. One really noticeable ball called on a pitch in the middle of the plate thrown by a Pirates pitcher. A few pitches called ball at the bottom of the zone. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=4&day=02&year=2018&game=gid_2018_04_02_minmlb_pitmlb_1/&prevDate=0402 Lynn’s couldn’t command his fastball. He turned to the curve more often (17%) than he had in any game last year. He will find his fastball but his performance might hint why he had a hard time finding a long term contract. Like Phil Hughes, when his fastball loses effectiveness he will have a hard time finding major league success.
  7. jorgenswest
    Lynn is a fastball pitcher and he didn’t have command of the fastball today. His offspeed offerings aren’t likely to bail him out when he can’t command the fastball.
  8. jorgenswest
    The game is played by humans. Hard work, persistence and inspiration results in a few players every year that totally defy expectations based on their record. Maybe LaMarre will defy expectations and staff in the organization recognized that growth. Maybe not. I look forward to following the story.
  9. jorgenswest
    It just isn’t enough plate appearances to compare. Slash stats don’t stabilize until near a full season of at bats. The batting average part is over 900 ABs. There just isn’t enough sample to support a conclusion that he has the ability to be a league average hitter as a SS. His three measures where his sample might be meaningful are K%, BB% and ISO. His K% was good, BB% was OK and ISO was poor for a shortstop.
  10. jorgenswest
    Polanco was not suspended at the time Vargas was waived (to clear a spot for Cave). If he had been suspended earlier, Vargas would have remained on the 40 a few weeks longer. Sano avoids suspension lessening the need to fill the empty spot on the 40 man with an infielder. The empty spot allows the Twins to try to add depth with a bench bat. They may waive him again at the roster deadline but it will be harder for teams like the Reds to find space on the 25 in that window.
  11. jorgenswest
    It is a different context a week later. Polanco is out. Sano isn’t suspended. A bench of Garver, Adrianza, Grossman and Vargas is possible. If Rosario needs the DL, Granite is a call away. Meanwhile Vargas needs to show he is a better bench bat than Grossman
  12. jorgenswest
    The lack of platoon split is much more common for hitters like Granite and LaMarre that rely on speed and contact rather than driving the ball. Neither would make a good platoon on a corner or bench bat to hit against a left handed pitcher. I am hoping that Garver can be an effective late inning pinch hitter against a lefty reliever.
  13. jorgenswest
    Spring training matters. Spring training data available to us is meaningless. The eyes of a skilled staff seeing these players everyday matters. Jobs can and should be won in spring training. From our end, we have no means to argue one way or another who should be on the roster based on spring. We certainly shouldn’t use the small and skewed sample we see in the stat lines. Performance in spring training matters and I hope the Twins have a staff skilled in evaluating that performance because there will be little correlation to performance in the data we can see.
  14. jorgenswest
    LaMarre bats right handed but he has had better splits the last two years against right handed pitching. Last year he was 7/40 against left handed pitching with no extra base hits, 4 walks and 14 strikeouts. Most of the at bats were in the hitter friendly PCL. He played more in 2016 and his OPS against right handed pitching was better 851 vs 752. Granite also hits better against right handed pitching but his 822/781 differential is relatively neutral. I don’t see how LaMarre’s batting right handed helps here. It should matter more how well he hits left handed pitching.
  15. jorgenswest
    I like the moves and the depth this year. I think both Duffey and Busenitz have some upside that a stay in AAA might help them realize. It would be harder to do that at the back end of the bullpen. I expect at least one of them will return and be a sold contributor.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Ervin situation is good relative to Nolasco/Hughes but it could turn out to be 2 good years out of 4.
  17. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine so many teams missed out on Adrianza if he can match above average defense with a close to league average (for a SS). That is starter quality. He put up those PCL averages prior to being DFA’d twice A year ago. I don’t think those numbers impressed anyone or he would have acquired in trade before the DFA process. On the other hand, he is at a point in his career where he would likely be near his peak. It is possible the very best of his bat matched with good defense come perfectly timed for this opportunity. I wouldn’t trust any good numbers long term, but there is reasonable hope for a good first half.
  18. jorgenswest
    We won’t know from data we can see but the Twins better have a pretty good idea right now.
  19. jorgenswest
    I agree with starting the best player and I would give more weight to the better defender at the catcher position. I suspect Castro is the better defender but I really don’t know how much better.
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is reasonable to think that the Twins can get a lot of benefit from a catcher platoon unless they go with three catchers. Let’s suppose the catcher spot is hitting near the bottom of the order against a lefty starter. Unless that pitcher is an ace, he is out of the game after two plate appearances from the catcher. The other two plate appearances are against a reliever. Most teams aren’t pinch hitting for the catcher unless they carry three so the remaining at bats are likely against a right handed pitcher. I think there is more to gain by matching the catcher with our pitcher. It can also help to switch catchers in a day game following a night game even if those two games are started by a lefty. There just isn’t enough to gain by planning to start Garver against all lefties.
  21. jorgenswest
    I wonder if Vargas will have a beak out season like Morrison in his late 20s. I would have had more confidence in Morrison though. The strike out and walk rates distinguish the two. I don’t think Vargas will walk enough to succeed with a strike out rate near 30%. Morrison changed his approach last year and his k% went up but so did his bb%. Vargas really needed to show progress last year and the nearly 500 plate appearances between Rochester and Minnesota at age 26 were underwhelming for a DH.
  22. jorgenswest
    They need both Granite and Cave. Their position player depth on the 40 was very thin.
  23. jorgenswest
    Rochester got hammered by weather early last year. I think they had something like 6 postponements in the first month. Romero in AA is much more likely to get regular work and be ready if needed early.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would add Mejia as one in the developed category also as the Twins get all of his years of control. Next year could be the year where they have 80% home grown.
  25. jorgenswest
    I agree. The only road to winning for a small to mid revenue team is devloping minor league talent. The Twins won’t sustain success unless they develop their own pitching. Signing free agent pitchers whether short or long term will not lead to sustained success. The free agent signings this winter are great. Lynn is a great add on a short term deal. The long term success relies on their ability to develop their talent to success at the major league level.
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