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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Loved the at bats early in the game pushing the pitch count. Grossman and Adrianza had some very good early at bats.
  2. jorgenswest
    Great topic... Is It possible that Adrianza can provide near league average shortstop play in 2019? I think I asked the same question about Escobar when the discussion was about adding Drew in free agency. Adrianza in his prime may have a window where he is a starting shortstop.
  3. jorgenswest
    In general going back two or three years to project forward will give a much more reliable projection than the current partial season or previous season. This breaks down if there is an injury that drives a sudden drop. I don’t think that is the case with a Dozier. If a team needs a starting 2B to finish out the season and are given the option of Dozier or Escobar, I think they choose Dozier.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think Gordon will benefit from more AAA based on his strikeout and walk rates but it is those that see him everyday that can assess his pitch recognition. If he still has work to do at AAA then they need to be patient. I wonder if they see Polanco in the near term at SS. The best defensive pairing for next year might have Polanco at 2B and Adrianza at SS. Can Adrianza hit close enough to the median SS to provide acceptable production over the span of his peak seasons? The most productive offense/defense pairing next year might be Polanco and Adrianza but that could be at the cost of developing Gordon long term and allowing him to struggle in the majors next year. I would go with the pairing I think will be best in the near term and go with Adrianza as long as his bat is close to league median SS.
  5. jorgenswest
    If Gray is available they will get a better return than those offered here. His peripherals are solid this year so I think the Rockies will have him back up soon. Sending players down around the break is not unusual. I will join in the dream of acquiring Gray for expiring contracts though. I am sure other teams are inquiring about what it would take to pry away Gray. The Twins should be inquiring.
  6. jorgenswest
    I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split. It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.
  7. jorgenswest
    You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.
  8. jorgenswest
    Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important. The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop. The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league. Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.
  9. jorgenswest
    Everyone would want 2+ years of Realmuto. Everyone would want 6 years of Lewis. Given the choice, where do you stand? I am with Lewis. Last off-season I was on the other side but that was when Realmuto had a chance to impact three seasons. In spite of the hope of the last few games, the real opportunity is 2019- and 2020. One of the Astros or Nationals will pay up. Packages of several players won’t be enough. The Marlins should seek the very best prospect in return for Realmuto. Lewis may not be enough.
  10. jorgenswest
    I agree. I don’t want to part with Lewis. However wouldn’t every teams option 1 look better? The Twins would never try to acquire that top tier player in trade.
  11. jorgenswest
    If Kyle Tucker is in play, Lewis isn’t going to be enough.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think the offer will help the Marlins force another team to take that step.
  13. jorgenswest
    If Lewis is off the table, I don’t think they need to make the call. Teams do trade prospects like Lewis. Someone will and the Twins will be left watching.
  14. jorgenswest
    There must also be some selection bias in there. Minor leaguers with very high rates are probably not spending a lot of time in the majors and get taken out of the group. Is Gordon’s low rate a reason to be encouraged?
  15. jorgenswest
    Maybe he never forced them to address their flaws knowing that with change comes struggle. With struggle more losses. Was it more important to him to win games or develop players? Those flaws didn’t get exposed until the majors. Could they have been addressed in the minors?
  16. jorgenswest
    Yes. In addition, he doesn’t need a league average BABIP with his peripherals. He just needs to get back towards his norm which is much better than .239. He would have an OPS around .800 when he gets back to his norm.
  17. jorgenswest
    Did Mientkiewicz prioritize wins over development? What would that mean for his players as they transition to the majors? Are they left with fundamentals/approach that worked in AA or A ball but not in the majors? Probably not. Sano came up with a pretty good approach. It doesn’t matter today anyway. Drastic measures were needed and keeping Sano and Buxton down for a long stay in the minors might be the best hope to right their careers. That takes time. Send them to instructional also. It might be best to see them again next spring.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am curious about the vast difference in infield fly ball percentage in Nick Gordon and Lamonte Wade and wonder how much it matters projecting their bats as major league hitters. I was able to find a few articles on IFFB% but those authors leave wondering also. One claim is that players with a lower IFFB rate tend to post higher BABIPs. Another claim is that minor league IFFB rates are greater than major league rates. A wonder is whether this is selection bias and those with greater IFFB rates don’t tend to make it in the majors. Here is what I noticed... Nick Gordon had a 2.3% IFFB rate this year in AA and AAA. He consistently is among the lowest in his league. Lamonte Wade has posted among the greater rates of 34.6% in AA and 28.6% in AAA. For context, Todd Frazier had the greatest IFFB% in 2017 at 18.9% and Freddie Freeman was 0%. Joey Votto is always low and last year he was at 0.5%. And I wonder... What does this mean projecting forward? I don’t have answers but it is something I want to study and blog further. I would appreciate any thoughts.
  19. jorgenswest
    His AA strike out with the Twins this year was 31.7% (101 batters) vs his AA rate of 29.7% (175 batters) with the Yankees. I am not sure how to compare AA with AAA. His walk rate in AA was also greater compared to the Yankees. I am not very hopeful but I do think missing more bats is the key to his usefulness in the majors.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am puzzled by Garver. I thought the trade of Murphy was an indicator of the front office’s confidence in his defense. They could really use Murphy’s defense right now.
  21. jorgenswest
    Low walk rates for pitchers in the minors doesn’t translate well to the majors. It often is an indicator that the pitcher isn’t missing a lot of bats. Missing bats leads to longer counts and more walks. If the change in those measures is driven by more missed bats it is a positive step towards being useful in the majors.
  22. jorgenswest
    Set the bar high for a Gibson trade. Get a good return for Odorizzi or keep him. Same for Reed. Take any offer better than a comp pick for Escobar and approaching a comp pick for Dozier. Take the best offer for Rodney, Duke, Lynn, Morrison. DFA Grossman. Release Belisle. Fill those spots with young players either acquired in trade or in the system. Prioritize catcher. DFA Wilson upon acquisition.
  23. jorgenswest
    Mid market teams are going to need among the best front office and contend. Is Molitor among the best 10 managers in baseball? If not, they need to seek a better manager. Mediocre to average isn’t good enough for this market.
  24. jorgenswest
    If he is down there and working to make changes to his swing or approach then it isn’t going to go well immediately. He may need longer than a rehab stay.
  25. jorgenswest
    Attended my first Kernels game last night. It is a fantastic setting for baseball. Both young pitchers looked very promising. Hopefully Enlow is healthy and will have a solid second half.
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