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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    This was a steamer projection. My understanding of steamer is that it uses a system of weighted averages and not component comps of minor leaguers. I don’t see a lot of difference either but 8 total bases would be an increase from 22 to 30 doubles. Wade has 3 extra base hits in 91 PAs this year. I don’t see how that is going to work well as a starting major league player on a corner. In AA, the first thing I look at as a hitter is age. The second is ISO. Walks are way down on the list for a few reasons. 1) Absent of power walks don’t translate well to the major leagues. 2) In order to get to that walk, the batter often would have seen a pitch or two that they could have barreled up in that at bat but didn’t. With all of his walks, Wade has seen a lot of pitches with few extra base hits as a result.
  2. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the link. It is the 1 PA steamer projection that they are comparing. I hope that steamer and other minor league projections based only on data can not be found in the Twins front office. It would be better to find comps of guys the same age with an ISO near 100 at 23 in AA but good OBP. How many of those guys make it? How long does it take them? Grossman is kind of close but better. He was 22 in AA with an ISO of 144 and lots of walks. ISO is a better indicator of future success because those walks off of minor league pitchers drop significantly against major league pitchers particularly if a player has little power.
  3. jorgenswest
    I see a steamer 1 plate appearance projection. Is that the one you are referring to?
  4. jorgenswest
    . Reminds of a guy the Twins have who started as a CF in the minors but moved to a corner while producing low ISOs and lots of walks. In his prime with luck we might expect a Robbie Grossman. Wade’s defense is better than Grossman at 28 but no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat. Walks with low ISO doesn’t translate well to the majors.
  5. jorgenswest
    I don’t think anyone really expected Garver to be more than a below average defensive catcher this year. He is going to have bad games. He certainly will be exposed by a pitcher that isn’t close to hitting the target.
  6. jorgenswest
    Rotating through the end of the bullpen with options and AAAA pitchers is reasonably typical practice for competeting teams. The Yankees certainly lengthen their bullpen with this practice. It fixes a short term need while doing little for the long term. Where is the Twins focus? Should it shift towards the long term? The middling short term signings kind of make it appear that they want to focus on both. They aren’t doing it both well thus far this season.
  7. jorgenswest
    Is there data on how often Twin pitchers are throwing first pitch fastballs? The Reds were jumping all over those fastballs. I am not sure Hughes has any useful pitch but he was getting killed on early fastballs. Duffey’s rate of throwing fastballs is way up in his short stint this year at the expense of his curve ball. Maybe he needs to reverse and throw his off speed and breaking stuff first. Neither of these pitchers should be consistently throwing fastballs early in the count. On the other hand, Hildenberger’s most successful pitch last year was his fastball. Why is his fastball usage way down this year?
  8. jorgenswest
    I am sending out a reliever. If forced to pick I have to go with the younger player who has the longer track record. The older guy has options.
  9. jorgenswest
    I was wondering what the thoughts were about the Hughes extension at the time of the signing. I think this is the most critical comment.
  10. jorgenswest
    If we are going to judge by numbers, we can start using slash stats at around a full season of plate appearances. We can look at strike out rates, walk rates and ISO at around a quarter season of regular play. Are you asking for to get an opportunity to the point where the sample is meaningful?
  11. jorgenswest
    According to JAWs, Joe is the 7th ranked catcher and Ernie is the 7th ranked SS.
  12. jorgenswest
    I I think they will treat him like Ernie Banks who is in as a SS though he only had 45% of his PA as a SS and more as a 1B. He was a great SS through age 30 winning both his MVPs. 80% of his WAR came through age 30. Banks was a HOF SS and mostly a below average 1B the second half of his career. I have no doubt that Joe Mauer will be in the HOF.
  13. jorgenswest
    Are you arguing this is how you expect HOF voters to look at his career or is this how you personally look at his career? I have to believe most voters will see him as a catcher for those 10 years and understand the significance. There will always be critics but a solid majority will get him elected to the HOF.
  14. jorgenswest
    Joe Mauer was a catcher through 2013. In every one of those years he had the wear and tear of catching. It is hard to imagine that he is close to matching his plate appearance in seasons since. It can’t even be close. It would not make sense to split out any DH/PH/1B at bats from his seasons as a catcher but maybe that was what was done. He was still catching a lot of games in those years which would be tough on the body,
  15. jorgenswest
    All the credit does to Dozier. He would have made it with someone. He worked himself into a player way beyond any expectations. It is so rare for an 8th round pick to have a significant career. At his pick #252, he has more WAR than all of the 52 other pick #252s combined.
  16. jorgenswest
    He has some shaky defense behind him in Sano and Adrianza that resulted in an elevated pitch count and stressful innings. The Gibson of old might have imploded and left the game in a lot worse shape than down 2-0.
  17. jorgenswest
    I would prefer to see Hughes healthy and pitching well as well as the other options get off to good starts.
  18. jorgenswest
    There is no guarantee it goes well and he is ready. Who starts for Rochester April 6? Chattanooga April 5/6?
  19. jorgenswest
    Took a moment to get it but noted and edited.
  20. jorgenswest
    Command will outdo velocity. He had the command to make it effective prior to Tommy John. According to fangraphs, he threw his fastball 81.1% of the time in 2017. That was the most frequent among qualified starters by a huge margin. He threw his fastball more often before TJS in 2015 at 85.4%. His success in the major leagues is due to the effectiveness of his fastball.
  21. jorgenswest
    Sorry. Didn’t mean to suggest there is anything to be concerned about short term. The one year deal is a great deal. His heavy reliance on the fastball I think made him a poor long term contract gamble. I have confidence he will find his fastball that has been very effective.
  22. jorgenswest
    The strike zone map on brooks baseball. Seems like the umpire did a respectable job. One really noticeable ball called on a pitch in the middle of the plate thrown by a Pirates pitcher. A few pitches called ball at the bottom of the zone. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=4&day=02&year=2018&game=gid_2018_04_02_minmlb_pitmlb_1/&prevDate=0402 Lynn’s couldn’t command his fastball. He turned to the curve more often (17%) than he had in any game last year. He will find his fastball but his performance might hint why he had a hard time finding a long term contract. Like Phil Hughes, when his fastball loses effectiveness he will have a hard time finding major league success.
  23. jorgenswest
    Lynn is a fastball pitcher and he didn’t have command of the fastball today. His offspeed offerings aren’t likely to bail him out when he can’t command the fastball.
  24. jorgenswest
    The game is played by humans. Hard work, persistence and inspiration results in a few players every year that totally defy expectations based on their record. Maybe LaMarre will defy expectations and staff in the organization recognized that growth. Maybe not. I look forward to following the story.
  25. jorgenswest
    It just isn’t enough plate appearances to compare. Slash stats don’t stabilize until near a full season of at bats. The batting average part is over 900 ABs. There just isn’t enough sample to support a conclusion that he has the ability to be a league average hitter as a SS. His three measures where his sample might be meaningful are K%, BB% and ISO. His K% was good, BB% was OK and ISO was poor for a shortstop.
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