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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    They will also have a lot of positions to fill. Polanco and Sano return as the only viable infielders under contract. They need a catcher. They need better options at DH. They will need a bullpen and a probably a starting pitcher. They have young players that they should pursue long term deals. The dollars will make a difference.
  2. jorgenswest
    My meh... Which has more value? A pick 74 for which only a small minority of players have had a significant career or Villalobos and a one year free agent signing at around 7.5 million. It seems like there is space to argue on both sides. Isn’t that different from saying why bother drafting? It just might not be worth Villalobos and 7.5 million. I would prefer the pick only because there is about a 5% chance that a truly valuable player will emerge. I don’t know the likelihood that a free agent at 7.5 million (or upgrading to a better free agent with 7.5 million) will result in a truly valuable addition for a season. Maybe it is around 50%. Bet on improving next season or take a flier on a player that might help 5 years down the road. Meh.
  3. jorgenswest
    The pmajority of players picked 74 never play in the majors. By WAR Mike Benjamin is 8th of 53 and the last of the useful players. A few other recent draftees might join the group but pick 74 has minimal but better odds of being a useful player than the catcher they received. With the 7 some million they can add a bat like Morrison for a year or a set up man for a year. I am not sure that there is anything here to get very passionate about.
  4. jorgenswest
    Additionally Magill can multiple innings. The Twins need the guy holding the last spot in the pen to be able to go more than 2 innings.
  5. jorgenswest
    Did you watch Sano’s at bats last night? Two walks. The second walk was at least 9 pitches and became the game tying run in the 8th. A drive to the left center gap and a diving catch by Gamel. A fly ball to the wall that advanced a runner from second to third. Four very good at bats out of four.
  6. jorgenswest
    It is really hard to sort out the experts. There is so much scouting and prospect reporting by the stat line. Reports are repeated by other sources giving them additional weight. The only way to reliably assess a catcher’s defense is to watch them in person several times. How many experts saw him catch several games? I think he has worked very hard and improved considerably from the time he was drafted. We have read about his hard work and improvement. Those phrases are also a cautionary flag about a player. I don’t recall reading about Buxton improving defensively or working hard on his defense.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think Seth’s maybe is reasonable. Do we know if he can be close to an average shortstop defensively? Hitting major league pitching is incredibly difficult. We have seen several players do well in AA and struggle. There is no way in looking at a stat line to know a player’s readiness in the field or at the plate. The staff seeing him every day is in a much position to better determine readiness. The Twins long term success relies on the skill of their staff. He could easily struggle at the plate and be much worse in the field than Adrianza right now. Long term Gordon appears to be at least a starting 2B. I hope they keep developing his glove at SS where his bat will play much better.
  8. jorgenswest
    Just took a look at AAA... It is hard to find a someone playing better than Astudillo that a team would be willing to trade. In the IL only one player younger than Astudillo his hitting and I would guess it would take a lot to pry Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays. The other young catchers are Francisco Mejia and Reese McGuire. We might go after McGuire but he has never hit in the minors. In the PCL the younger catchers have been called up in Carson Kelly and Jacob Nottingham. Nottingham is back in AAA. He didn’t hit well outside of PCL. When the Cards brought up Kelly, they also moved Andrew Knizner up a level. He is a good prospect. The Cardinals have Molina through 2020 and a few good 23 year olds. They are the only team I can see to target once Molina is healthy. Gordon might be a fit here. The Blue Jays have Jansen and McGuire but they also have a major league need at catcher. I can’t see them very interested in moving either and certainly not Jansen. Maybe there is some hope in Astudillo.
  9. jorgenswest
    i think Wade needs more time to develop his bat. We don’t know how often he is getting a pitch he should barrel up and instead he misses it hitting a foul ball or puts it in play to weak contact. With his large number of walks, he must be seeing lots of pitches and should have more opportunities to get a good pitch to hit. With all of those walks must be plenty of counts in his favor and pitchers needing to throw him a good pitch. How often is he getting those good pitches and not taking advantage or recognizing them? How often does he end up with a walk when somewhere earlier in the count he should have barreled up a pitch? We don’t know. The Twins staff should know. There should always be a at least a caution flag up when you see a player with a lot of walks and little power in the minors.
  10. jorgenswest
    Still a chance to get a return for Buxton. Do you trade him for a major league catcher?
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins should know what they have in Garver defensively. They shouldn’t have to wait until he is in the majors wondering what they have in his defense. They should know or they need to overhaul the minor league staff. There isn’t anyway for outsiders to know and most data in a partial season is of little value. If the Twins have assessed Garver to be an average or better defender they should be playing in 4-5 times a week. If not, they need to be aggressively seeking their next catcher.
  12. jorgenswest
    They should cash that in soon. Wilson playing once a series is OK but they should be actively looking for an upgrade.
  13. jorgenswest
    Yes. I keep pitching Lynn. I count on his walk rate to return to his career norm prior to this season and I trade him in July. I start May in AAA with his last option and I ease his workload up. He hasn’t been a starter since June of 2015. The time in AAA will be valuable and it will be much easier to adjust his workload and give him any needed extra rest at that level. I think we do agree that this roster is not one that can compete with the best of the AL. My plan would be to try to squeeze out the most value I can from the players who will be free agents. It is reasonable that Lynn will perform over his next 8 starts near his career norms. If that happens, the Twins will find a trade partner. The previous 8 starts aren’t a great predictor of the next 8 starts particularly when those previous 8 are not inline with career norms.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am not sure 8 previous starts is predictive of the next 8 starts. If they were and it was reasonable to expect the same walk rate going forward then he should be removed from the rotation. It might also be reasonable to expect the walk rate to return to previous norms. I hope he has a good June and July so they can flip him at the deadline.
  15. jorgenswest
    I look at the Yelich deal where Brinson was often top 25 plus three others. Catcher is more scarce than centerfield. They have to expect to get better for Realmuto even when comparing 3 years of control against a possible 5 for Yelich. Gordon is seen by many as a 2B which is not a position of high value and Gonsalves as a 4th starter. They are good prospects with a major league future. It will take a great prospect. Is there anyone willing to trade Lewis or Romero for Realmuto. Note. Low ceiling does not equate to mediocre. A likely future starting 2B and 4th starter are not mediocre prospects.
  16. jorgenswest
    To advocate it has to include willingness to trade the high upside prospect the Marlins are seeking. The Twins have two of those guys in Lewis and Romero though Graterol may get there by midseason. I think most of us would trade a package of lower ceiling guys like Gordon and Gonsalves. To me, that isn’t calling for a Realmuto trade. Should the Twins have been willing to part with Lewis or Romero? Some team will be willing to trade a prospect with that upside.
  17. jorgenswest
    Seth can probably chime in on whether my perception seems accurate. In tracking back on a few players who have moved up in season, there appears to be a migration upwards coinciding with the A ball all star games. The MWL and FSL host their all star games on the June 15-17 weekend. I would expect that some of the better performing high end prospects will be moved up around that time frame this year. It also coincides with EST ending and draft signings filling some slots in A-Ball.
  18. jorgenswest
    Wade on base 4 times and another good game from Gordon. We will see several teams start moving guys up as extended spring training ends and some of those players fill low A pushing other guys up through the system. The June draft will also fill the system with a few players that need a spot in A ball. I expect both to move in the first half of June.
  19. jorgenswest
    He had to be relieved. The high fastball he missed that allowed the runner to advance from 2nd to 3rd and leading to the fielders choice run from 3rd and the the ball he missed later leading to the third run kept the Angels in the game led to 2 runs. Those are plays most major league catchers makes. Yesterday he didn’t need to make either but making one of them would have prevented extra innings.
  20. jorgenswest
    What does that tell us about the second half? How much should it be a significant factor in the playing time decision?
  21. jorgenswest
    The bullpen was rested after some good starts. Tomorrow is an off day. The Twins had a comfortable lead. Odorizzi could have gone another inning but it seems like a good move by Molitor. There was little to gain having him go through the lineup the third time and push his pitch count over 100. A week ago when the bullpen was gassed in the middle of a long stretch of games without a day off it would have made sense to keep him in another inning.
  22. jorgenswest
    I agree. It is critical midmarket teams make good decisions. Thus far the Twins have 3 good seasons to show for the 13 they purchased in Santana, Nolasco and Hughes. That is not a winning recipe. Midmarket teams can’t easily dump a Nolasco or Hughes contract. Every time we advocate for that winter signing we have to know that it comes with the risk that we will likely be buying some bad years that will be hard to watch.
  23. jorgenswest
    Maybe Wade is working on his swing to get more power. If that is the case, they really need to give him the time to develop that stroke. With moderate power, he might project similar to Matt Lawton instead of Robbie Grossman.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would prefer another bat over the extra mop up reliever. Hopefully one of them is removed when Buxton returns
  25. jorgenswest
    Lots of stuff above. LaMarre is the only true centerfielder of the group. Grossman is the best hitter (today) of the group. Could that why be the front office has chosen these two? As for sample, I didn’t use rate stats for that reason and used a count but the ISO are so similar I could have done the count across two years. When using ISO I used his 2017 numbers. Yes 8 singles would turn into doubles otherwise the batting average would change. In this case it was about increasing in power to increase SLG without increasing AVG. To stay focused on the big picture though... A minor league corner OF profile of very good OBP and low ISO does not translate well to the majors.
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