jorgenswest

What does it say about an organization when the 19th best asset was available on waivers? What does it say about Gordon who sits behind at 20? In ranking players would it be reasonable to ask the question, “Would I trade number 20 to get number 19?” Would the Twins have traded Gordon for Cron this winter? If offered a Gordon for Cron today, would the Twins take the deal? Cron has done nothing this winter to increase his value. He can hit but very similarly skilled players have been easily available.

I would think projections will be 2-3 WAR. Starting players but not stars.

I don’t think any reasonable projection would be based on a single season and certainly not a season where plate appearances were limited.

What is the objective measure for “not trying to win”?

Mauer's number absolutely needs to be retired. I look forward to the ceremony. If the bar remains the same, I think the only possible next number is Joe Nathan. Relative to the era, it would be difficult to put Jim Kaat in before Brad Radke based on their performance as a Twin only. Santana and Pascual (with his WAS years) also have more WAR in the organization than Kaat but none of the three is very close to Radke. For hitters the next after Hrbek in terms of Twins WAR is Knoblauch and I don't think we will see Knoblauch's number retired. Allison is next and then there is a drop.

If the Twins project Odorizzi to progress from a number 4 towards a number 3 extending him makes some sense. Even number 4 pitchers are very useful pieces. How important is it to have a core of veteran players locked up beyond 2019? I am not sure there is a great deal of value but I would rather pay for the rest of the prime in Odorizzi’s case rather than the decline of an older player into his 30s. Interesting thought.

Next? I like the question though I want to find an objective way to comment. Radke has nearly as much baseball reference WAR as Blyleven in a Twins uniform. Knoblauch is even closer to Hrbek as a position player. Nathan is the reliever with the most WAR. Any new addition may be lowering the bar though I am not sure where the bar should be for Nathan other than he is clearly the best reliever to wear a Twins uniform. I wonder if anyone would stand out differently with Jay Jaffe’s JAWS. Do we consider the season in Senator uniforms for Kaat, Pascual and Allison? I don’t think they catch Radke or Knoblauch but it would be closer.

According to roster resource Duffey has 1 option. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ I am not sure. He was optioned to start the 2016 season but return before the 20th day of the AAA season. He was optioned again at the end August. Maybe an option wasn’t used. If Duffey has an option he could be helpful as a shuttle from AAA to avoid the need for the 13th pitcher.

Thanks for the work. I was interested in his K/BB ratio splits in the minors. Going back three years there is not a significant difference in the splits like there is in Austin's major league numbers. 136/65 v right 65/30 v left With your prompting, I have more hope that Austin will hit right handed pitching much better than he has show the last three years in the majors.

Thanks for the article. I trust the front office’s goal is a path of sustained success. To get there they definitely need to develop the talent of the 27 and below talent. It is year 3 now and this is their team and their manager. They need results this year. I would set the bar this year as buyers at the deadline. If they can’t make that bar, it is time to look elsewhere for leadership.

My plan would be a 7 man bullpen with the last two spots dedicated to players on options that can shuttle if needed to AAA. Looking at the roster resource https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ The Twins have Hildenberger, Moya, DeJong, Curtiss, Duffey, Vazquez and a bunch of AAA starters with options for those two spots. I was surprised by Duffey but maybe an option wasn’t used in 2016. He was recalled in April before that season was 20 days old. The Twins need to fill the top 5 spots adding two free agent relievers to May, Rogers and Reed. I am not sure Magill has the upside to roster without the flexibility of options. He certainly could open the season at the back end of the pen and then get DFA’d when a reliever is needed.

Do you cut a guy who might be your best bat against a left handed pitcher? Is that bat more valuable than a 13th pitcher?

I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable. The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.

By WOBA Tyler Austin is Goldschmidt against lefties and LaMarre against righties. I hope the Twins can find a way to keep him as that 13th bat and start him against every lefty. He also is a good option on the bench to come in against that left handed reliever or the threat keeps that reliever in the pen. In order to have 12 pitchers they need the back two in the pen with options matched with a few in AAA. Hildenberger is on my planned shuttle. A rule 5 guy is not in the plan.

I think they signed him because he is young, he has had success and they have reason to believe from their data that 2018 was an outlier. I can’t imagine they would look at slash stat data in this size sample.

I wonder if there is any other place to discuss the stuff that happened before 2019 or maybe we need to start a discussion group called 2019 Minnesota Twins Talk. Looking forward I think Schoop will help the 2019 team. Additionally, I think at least one of Gordon, Arraez or Lewis will be ready in 2020. In the best case, Schoop does well and wants to stay to the tune of a contract similar to the one Escobar received from the DBacks. The void is a good left handed bat with both power and on base ability that will slot in at DH and play a little of a corner spot.

Team OBP correlates with team runs scored. Is it true in every run scoring environment? Maybe not. http://www.banishedtothepen.com/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

His career WOBA against lefties is .387. He is 2018 Paul Goldschmidt against lefties. His career WOBA against righties is .285. With the Twins last year, Ryan LaMarre was .284. I would love to have a Goldschmidt at DH or 1B in the lineup against every lefty. It is the other 72% of the time that needs a plan. Ryan LaMarre is not a good plan.

Is strike zone recognition a talent or a mindset? Some of both no doubt and players do improve their pitch recognition as they see more major league pitches. I think it is more skill and talent than mindset. It is hard to have plate discipline when your pitch recognition talent is weak. Rosario makes up for it with great hands. His pitch recognition will get better but I don’t think his deficit is lack of discipline. I think it is lack of that talent/skill.

I hope he is still a catcher because I don’t think he is a major leaguer without catcher. He can compete with Tyler Austin with the bat and roster spot. They both had WOBAs of .325 last year. They both are 27. They get to their WOBAs in different ways. Garver gets on base more often and had less power. His platoon splits are less extreme and in the reverse direction where he has hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching. As a catcher having less extreme platoon splits is a benefit since mangers are reluctant to pinch hit for that spot. It also helps because it is difficult to platoon catcher by swing as they can often be tied to their own starting pitcher. Austin WOBA is power driven. He has extreme platoon splits. His WOBA is skewed given his disproportionate use against left handed pitching. A more normal distribution with a greater percentage of his at bats against right handed pitching may give us a different picture of his future value. He certainly can hit lefties. This is great as a bench bat and platoon player. It is not so great if he is in the middle of the order and has a key at bat late in the game against a right handed pitcher. I am not sure who is more valuable on the bench (assuming that Astudillo is there as a catcher). Austin has no positional flexibility but can really hit left handed pitching. Garver has more position flexibility but isn’t going to scare a right or left handed pitcher. Which is more helpful to the team? One great skill in the short side of the platoon with little else or a broader set of mediocre skills?

Trading Kepler for A prospects or part of a deal to get a top of the rotation pitcher is a no brainer. I would not move him for lesser prospects. We don’t need another JR Murphy deal. I don’t think he brings in that top prospect or pitcher so I am keeping him. His strikeout and walk rates are trending the right way. His defense in RF is a plus. He may not have any single stand out skill but his all around game is the reason steamer projects him for more WAR than any other Twin position player in 2019.

Just a wonder... Are high strikeout players with an OPS that is homer driven more likely to slumps? Do teams with a lot of these players tend to win their games by multiple runs but lose lots of close games? Why does OBP have a higher correlation to wins than SLG?

In isolation I like this move. Other than Machado, I wouldn’t want to give a multiyear contract to any of the middle infielders only to get one good year and pay for the decline. At 27 Schoop would have been a multiyear option but I don’t see why that would be his interest. The Twins still need a good bat for the middle of the lineup. A bat that they can count on to get on base and drive in runs. A bat that can work a count. They can’t be done with the line up.

I like both deals and I think it shows they believe in the young middle infielders for the near future. I hope they are pursuing a bat that can hit right handed pitching for DH/1B.

The Twins really need a bat against right handed pitching. My preference would be to take the full contract and maybe even get prospect value back. They can also look elsewhere but they must fill this spot.