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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I am neither excited nor concerned about Gordon. I am confident he will be a starting and contributing major league infielder. The Twins need to be patient and make sure he has demonstrated command of the strike zone in AAA. That will happen though maybe not timed with Dozier’s departure.
  2. jorgenswest
    Sometimes I am not sure if you would prefer for the Twins to win or Dozier to have a game like tonight.
  3. jorgenswest
    Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers? The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money. The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?
  4. jorgenswest
    Context for the facts... If you press 2B and qualified on fangraphs you will get players like Zobrist who have played 2B but are not primarilynthe Cubs 2B. That is how you end up with two Cubs and 171 games of 2B play in the list. If you want to see just play at 2B you can choose the split as a 2B. If you do the split and choose team you can compare Dozier’s performance compared to the play team’s are getting at 2B. This will give a clearer picture of the season up to the all star break as long as you are comparing rate stats. If you want to use slash based stats to project forward this partial season is not enough sample to be provide a reliable comparison. You really need to include 2017 and 2016 weighing each year prior a little less. Facts are tricky. They can be framed in so many different ways. I would argue pressing the 2B button on fangraphs does not give a fair representation of how teams will project Dozier’s value the last two months of the season.
  5. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a fifth starter until next week. Seems like a position player helps more than a ninth bullpen arm with a rested pen. It should be a short stay until either a 5th starter is needed or Morrison is ready. Is there a different position player who is a better option for the weekend? Would it be better to have a ninth reliever for a series against Kansas City?
  6. jorgenswest
    I agree. Earlier I said a return of a guy like Adalberto Mejia at the time of the Nunez trade was above that bar. A similar return for Dozier or Escobar is better than the expected value of a comp pick.
  7. jorgenswest
    I look at the qualifying offer of ~18 million a little differently. When teams give a veteran free agent pitcher 4 years and 60 million they know they are likely to get 2 good years. That is what the Twins got from Santana which is a lot better than the return from Hughes and Nolasco. The Twins will likely get one good year from Castro for the three years. A one year deal for ~18 million to a player in their 30s can work out better than a 3/30 deal. As long as Dozier and Escobar finish strong, I would make the qualifying offer. I don’t go into the deadline feeling I must trade them. Instead I expect a return of at least a comp pick before I deal them.
  8. jorgenswest
    There are at least 8 pitchers in Rochester already on the 40 man roster that have earned the opportunity to play a month or two in the majors this season. That doesn’t include the possibility that Pineda is ready to throw in September. I really hope that Lynn, Rodney and Duke can be traded. Belisle can be released. I am not certain about Magill and whether he can sustain a mid 3 ERA given some of his peripherals. The staff doesn’t seem to want to use him in even moderate leverage situations. If they don’t see him as part of a contending pitching staff, they should men on. As for position players I would trust the process with Sano and Buxton as to whether they return this season. The one player not on the 40 that should get his feet wet is Wade. They already have team control through his prime. If he struggles, it is late enough in the season where they won’t need to send him back and burn an option. The lack of position players and the high number of pitchers in Rochester ready for an opportunity might guide them as they consider offers. They really could use a few position players near ready with options. They might go for higher upside younger pitchers that don’t need a 40 man spot next year. If the end up with a near ready catcher and middle infielder with a few A ball pitchers while moving players with expiring contracts it will be a successful trade deadline.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am able to look it up if you like though I don’t think the sample is large enough to be considered meaningful. It really would be mathematically best to combine the 2017 with 2018 for wRC+, OPS+ or other slash stat driven data.
  10. jorgenswest
    I don’t agree with your use of statistics. I am pretty sure that there couldn’t be 28 qualified first basemen though there could be 28 guys who played at least 1 game at first base and also had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. That list has to include players whose primary position was not 1B. The wRC+ overall for first basemen in 2017 was 113. It would be fair to note that Mauer hit better than average first base play. In addition wRC+ does not include his contribution in the field which by the eyes of many was better than league average. There is enough to support your argument for not re-signing Mauer without using statistics in a misleading way (though that may not have been your intent). If fangraphs was your source, you do not get a list of qualified firstbasemen by clicking 1B.
  11. jorgenswest
    I wonder if it is consistency or variation due to sample. SLG and OBP stabilize near a full season and batting average around 900 plate appearances. Any conclusion drawn from slash stat splits or partial seasons is on shaky ground.
  12. jorgenswest
    Why would Astudillo put on a catcher's mitt? He stopped playing catcher in AAA four weeks before his first appearance in the major leagues. Since June 2 he played primarily 3B with a couple of starts in LF and one a DH for Rochester. They gave him two months at AAA to show he was an acceptable catcher. The staff moved him off of catcher and to 3B. Why would they move him back once he hit the majors? I can see how we might question Molitor if he played him at catcher and ignored what was learned in Rochester. I don't get the persistent questioning of why Astudillo isn't getting a chance at catcher. He had a chance for two months before they moved him to 3B.
  13. jorgenswest
    I hope Romero. He should be available.
  14. jorgenswest
    His status relative to other prospects may have fallen or risen. Isn’t that what matters? I don’t think we know whether he has fallen or risen in status without knowing how many left the group. The numbers shouldn’t be compared. It could be I am wrong and my understanding of winter vs. summer rankings is flawed.
  15. jorgenswest
    Aren’t there some players who have been taken off the list? Wouldn’t we expect everyone to move up? Has Gordon moved ahead of any shortstops previously ahead of him? Have any shortstops passed him up? It could be that moving up 15 spots isn’t really moving up at all. How many players above him were taken off due to playing in the majors?
  16. jorgenswest
    Should Gordon play if Adrianza and Polanco are playing well? Is it possible that the pairing that gives the Twins the best overall play next year is Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B? Adrianza didn’t come to the Twins with the Baseball America or Fangraphs prospect stamp of approval but he might have a window in his prime where he is a contributing starter on a good team.
  17. jorgenswest
    Loved the at bats early in the game pushing the pitch count. Grossman and Adrianza had some very good early at bats.
  18. jorgenswest
    Great topic... Is It possible that Adrianza can provide near league average shortstop play in 2019? I think I asked the same question about Escobar when the discussion was about adding Drew in free agency. Adrianza in his prime may have a window where he is a starting shortstop.
  19. jorgenswest
    In general going back two or three years to project forward will give a much more reliable projection than the current partial season or previous season. This breaks down if there is an injury that drives a sudden drop. I don’t think that is the case with a Dozier. If a team needs a starting 2B to finish out the season and are given the option of Dozier or Escobar, I think they choose Dozier.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think Gordon will benefit from more AAA based on his strikeout and walk rates but it is those that see him everyday that can assess his pitch recognition. If he still has work to do at AAA then they need to be patient. I wonder if they see Polanco in the near term at SS. The best defensive pairing for next year might have Polanco at 2B and Adrianza at SS. Can Adrianza hit close enough to the median SS to provide acceptable production over the span of his peak seasons? The most productive offense/defense pairing next year might be Polanco and Adrianza but that could be at the cost of developing Gordon long term and allowing him to struggle in the majors next year. I would go with the pairing I think will be best in the near term and go with Adrianza as long as his bat is close to league median SS.
  21. jorgenswest
    If Gray is available they will get a better return than those offered here. His peripherals are solid this year so I think the Rockies will have him back up soon. Sending players down around the break is not unusual. I will join in the dream of acquiring Gray for expiring contracts though. I am sure other teams are inquiring about what it would take to pry away Gray. The Twins should be inquiring.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split. It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.
  23. jorgenswest
    You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important. The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop. The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league. Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.
  25. jorgenswest
    Everyone would want 2+ years of Realmuto. Everyone would want 6 years of Lewis. Given the choice, where do you stand? I am with Lewis. Last off-season I was on the other side but that was when Realmuto had a chance to impact three seasons. In spite of the hope of the last few games, the real opportunity is 2019- and 2020. One of the Astros or Nationals will pay up. Packages of several players won’t be enough. The Marlins should seek the very best prospect in return for Realmuto. Lewis may not be enough.
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