jorgenswest

Duffey did well in the role and allowed Stewart to begin with the 8 and 9 hitters. I think it worked the way it is supposed to last night.

It supports the opener as long as that opener is a really good pitcher or you can take advantage of match ups like opening with a left handed pitcher against left handed batters. Those top of the lineup batters are usually going to get an extra at bat against someone. If starting pitcher is clearly the better pitcher than I think you want that starting pitcher going up against the better hitter that extra time.

I am not sure that Berrios or even Gibson would call if suffering.

Everyone knows that pitchers have much more difficulty the third time through the lineup. Right? Isn't this established baseball knowledge? Data does back it up. Anecdotally we hear stats on almost every baseball broadcast about how much poorer a pitcher performs his third time through the order. League wide there is data to support this claim. According to OPS+ here is how starting pitchers have performed the first, second and third time through the order this season. PA#1: 91 OPS+ PA#2: 101 OPS+ PA#3: 117 OPS+ Wow! There is a huge difference between a 91 OPS+ batter and a 117 OPS+ batter. We can see it in the ERA also. PA#1: 4.08 PA#2: 4.20 PA#3: 4.57 Teams may be making significant decisions based on this data. I am skeptical. I think the data is very skewed by the group. A pitcher facing a team the third time through is guaranteed to face the better hitters on the team and unlikely to face the weaker hitters on a team the third time through. We can see it in the data. PAs 1st time through: 37803 PAs 3rd time through: 22470 The majority of those missing 15333 plate appearances come from players who would have been batting at or near the bottom of the order. The top 6 position is the batting order have an OPS+ of 110. The bottom 3 (excluding pitchers) have an OPS+ of 87. I don't have data including pitchers for the group but the 9th place hitters have an OPS+ of 56 with pitchers so that 87 would certainly be lower. That OPS+ range of 23 between the early part of the order and the bottom of the order nearly matches the OPS+ range of 26 between the first time through the order and the third time through the order. Maybe this shouldn't be established baseball knowledge. Maybe a pitcher's performance really hasn't dropped significantly the third time through. Maybe it is the statistical illusion created by the group. The majority of the hitters in the third time through group are simply the better hitters. I wondered if there might be a different angle to attack the question of whether a pitcher's skill level really drops the third time he sees a hitter. I used baseball reference play index and looked at the group of batters instead. Using the season 2015-2017 and selecting a minimum of 570 plate appearances in those seasons I created a group of 294 batting seasons. I wondered if those batters as a group performed significantly better the third time they saw a pitcher. Here is the median OPS+ of the group according to time through the order. PA#1: 101 OPS+ PA#2: 102 OPS+ PA#3: 105.5 OPS+ The third plate appearance was better the third time through. The range as we often hear when reported in terms of pitchers is not nearly as vast. In fact it might not be worthy of comment on a broadcast. Of the 294 seasons for a batter in 2015-2017, 113 of those seasons the batter had their best OPS in their third at bat. PA#1 - Best OPS 31% of batters PA#2 - Best OPS 31% of batters PA#3 - Best OPS 38% of batters More batters had their best OPS+ the third time they saw a pitcher. I wouldn't describe it as many more though. I am not sure that a pitcher's ability drops that significantly the third time through the order. I think much of the reported difference is simply the group of batters who they happen to see the third time through. Batters do seem to perform slightly better the third time they see a pitcher over the last three seasons. Is that difference enough to drive decisions about a pitching staff? Is the opener a solution to this problem? Does a real problem exist? Those better hitters at the top of the order are likely to get an extra at bat against someone every game. If the solution is using an opener, that opener is going to have to be a really good pitcher to get through a team's best hitters. Note: Baseball Reference Play Index was used to gather the data.

I don’t think catcher ERA is a thing but both had better strikeout and walk rates with Wilson. Wilson was the primary catcher for these two until his early August injury.

Service time is the primary factor. The Twins can extend control by offering and extension or managing service time. It was widely reported that the Twins offered Buxton a multiyear extension last winter. Buxton turned them down. That is a gamble on Buxton’s part as he is betting on himself the remain healthy and performing at an elected level. Buxton performed poorly and the Twins went with plan B.

Austin has extremely high strikeout rates with low walk rates against right handed pitching. It isn’t a big jump to think that Mauer might be a better hitter against right handed pitching next year. I hope they find a way to put Austin in the line up against every left handed pitcher. I also hope they have a 1B plan for right handed pitching. If not Mauer, then maybe Kepler with Cave taking over RF.

I would really appreciate to have the full post quoted so that the part after the sentence you chose that started being convinced was included. I apologize if that sentence out of context implied that I haven’t read have written. My fault. I am not convinced that a month this year is better than a few weeks next year.

It is a business and it should be. It is the front office’s obligation to protect the interests of the organization. I haven’t seen an argument that a month this year is better than a full season in his prime. I haven’t seen an argument that a month of this losing season is better than a few weeks next April. I am not convinced that the at bats he will get this month are critical to his success. I also am not convinced that his reaction to the decision will have an impact on his future performance. Will the White Sox call up Eloy Jimenez who has destroyed minor league pitching and has shown solid pitch recognition in his strike out rates? Probably not. It is in the best interest of the organization to keep control an additional year of his prime.

The opportunity for Gonsalves is more about his learning and getting his feet wet than the Twins learning about him. I am certain their view of his future is no different today than it was a couple of weeks ago. Ours shouldn’t be either.

How is this any different than trading an expiring contract in a losing season. Would I trade a month of Buxton this year for a full season in his prime? Yes. Would I trade a month of Buxton this year to have him the full season next year? Yes. The only stable numbers in AAA are a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6.5%. That is not worthy of a call up. If he loses a year of service it is because he had so little command of the strike zone in the majors and minors. Those same rates we’re no different and maybe better in 2015-16 AAA than this year. I must add that it would be folly to look at slash stats or any numbers on the last month. However the skilled eyes of those watching him everyday will know of a skill change long before they stabilize in the data. If those watching him are extremely confident that he has turned the corner in his strike zone recognition bringing him up could have benefit entering the off season.

I think Wilson has been both helpful to the development of Garver as well as the two pitchers for whom he was the primary catcher in Gibson and Berrios. I hope he is healthy and able to contribute to the Cuns success.

I wouldn’t pursue Logan Forsythe. I probably wouldn’t pursue any of the age 32+ free agent second baseman. Ideally they have the talent in their scouting department to identify the ~25-26 year old 2B that can be the next Dozier/Forsythe and acquire that player buying low.

Well thought out and intriguing. My first reaction is that I would prefer a model that might work with a 12 man pitching staff. This model works for September and maybe for the 25 with 2 piggyback slots. I am certain they are studying the opener model and thinking about whether the talents of some of their staff would fit that model. The remainder of the season is a great opportunity to try a different model. I prefer that look be something that they might also be able to use next April.

Drafting a high school pitcher #4 is a risky decision. Of the 14 drafted only 5 had a good a career (Matlock, Fernandez, Wood, Morgan and Brett). Six ended with a negative WAR or no appearance in the majors. Dylan Bundy (2011), Kohl Stewart (2013) and Riley Pint (2016) remain and none are a sure thing for a significant career. Bundy has a chance and Pint has been awful in the minors. The 2013 first round doesn't look very good. Of the top 12 picks only 2 have positive WAR and after pick 3 (Gray) you need to go down to supplemental round pick 32 before finding a significant player in Aaron Judge.

If he isn’t moved by September, I would play Adrianza every day possibly at SS. The other in house option they might consider is Rosario at 2B with Polanco at SS. Gordon hasn’t given them any reason to start his service time.

Every game matters to me. No way do I want any player or coach on the team not giving everything to win everyday. Playing to win matters. It matters to those watching the game. It matters to the development of players. It matters way more than a handful of spots in a draft.

The home run was awesome. I wasn’t expecting a home run but I was expecting Joe to come through. He is the Twin I want up in that situation.

If he has value to the bench or lineup of a contending team, they should be able to find a trade partner. If he doesn’t have that value, they shouldn’t be interested in fostering him next year. A three man bench has a spot for an OF, middle infield and catcher. He can’t fill any of those roles as a 2B/3B. The fourth guy needs options to give them roster flexibility.

Trade him for the best the market will offer and play Adrianza.

My mistake bringing in my preference for Wade and Austin. I retract. It is only a distraction. I don’t believe there is nearly as much value in a month of September at bats versus his value next April much less an extra full year at the end. Could the difference be that I believe Buxton will be a very valuable player in that extra year and you believe the September at bats are critical to any possibility of future success? If that’s the case, we disagree. I don’t think the at bats are very valuable but I get your point.

I prefer the value of the extra year and would send him to Florida. Wade and maybe even Austin can get time when Cave, Rosario or Kepler sit. Buxton isn’t playing every day and I don’t know if he is even playing back to back days. He isn’t going to be seeing the best pitching in AAA or September. Given that pitching the data will be less reliable even at 150 PAs.

120-150 PAs In season I start looking at those rare stats around Memorial Day.

They have stated they will be careful with May’s use. That is a tough mix with the need to get him in front of major league batters. They do have enough arms in the pen to manage his more limited use.

They should not bring him up based on performance and health. If he is playing every other day he doesn’t even have time to establish playing well and he certainly hasn’t met that bar yet. These September at bats are not going to matter next spring.