Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,175

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Too many years spent in A Ball? Slow played? I think that shifted in this decade. I don’t think our perception shifted? Arcia - 20 games A, 114 games A+ Buxton - 68/87 Sano - 129/56 Polanco - 115/94 Kepler - 61/108 Rosario - 95/60 Hicks - 172/122 Hicks is the only one who needed two years between A and A+. Everyone else was advanced. All arrived at a young age. None arrived with a good idea of the strike zone. Was it because they were moved too fast? Was it a failure of development? Maybe it was an inability to recognize talent. This core of players has changed my view of moving players quickly through the minors. I think it is far better to error on the side of moving too slow. I don’t think it will hurt the ultimate development and it will likely shift a year of service to additional season in a player’s prime.
  2. jorgenswest
    I used to think that the Twins needed to bring the prospects up earlier to the major leagues. I am certain I debated with Seth the merits of pushing prospects to the majors. I was excited to see Sano, Arcia and Hicks jump from AA. Buxton made the jump after a cup of coffee in AAA. It turns out Seth was right. I don’t see how the rush helped any of the four. It does rush service time though. For Rooker an option would need to be used. I now believe there is a lot of value in AAA and learning to manage the strike zone. I would much prefer an additional season in their prime rather than the ups and downs of a 22 year old season. I really want to see the current group of young players establish an understanding of the strike zone in AAA before they hit the majors. That can happen in half of a season.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t have much hope but he still has an option. There is enough hope in his curveball and strikeout/walk rates to give him another year in AAA on An options shuttle. Let’s hope the new pitching coaches will find the adjustment he needs, I wouldn’t give up his spot on the 40 before Granite’s or Reed’s. Relief pitchers with options will be needed to extend the bullpen.
  4. jorgenswest
    Nick- Does the Cruz signing reduce the Twins need for Cron? At best his value this year is the difference between he and Austin in 2019 performance. Cron projects at 1.6 WAR. We also have control in 2020 but Rooker or Kirilloff may be in the picture at that point. If you did the rankings with Cruz in mind would Cron slot in the same place given the reduction in need?
  5. jorgenswest
    I will only argue that slash stats don’t give a good picture of performance. They are far too heavily influenced by BABip and other factors not independent to the batter. I look forward to measures derived from the pitch level and batted ball data. Baseball Prospectus has a new DRC+ that I want to dig into. I would love to see how Kepler, Rosario and Cave measure up. I expect teams are designing even better models. Before the Cruz deal, Kepler was projected for the most WAR among the Twin position players (fangraphs/steamer) for 2019. That projection is based on his numbers the last three years. As always I appreciate the your thoughtful responses. Thanks for the debate.
  6. jorgenswest
    I am saying that data in smaller samples should not be considered in the decision making process. We rely on the eyes of a skilled staff. The Twins also have a wealth of pitch level data that we don’t see. We rely on the talents of the staff interpreting that data. One partial year of slash stats should have no weight in the decision making progress. There may be pitch level and batted ball data that supports Cave but we see little of that data. It will be a race for organizations to learn how to interpret that data and its reliability in projecting performance. As for Kepler I find the progress in strike out rate and walk rate encouraging. He has good command of the strike zone. He now needs to improve his ability to recognize those pitches he can attack and be aggressive. It was the same with Hicks.
  7. jorgenswest
    Stats in small samples are not a good measure of future performance. Cave doesn’t have near the sample to project forward based on last year’s major league slash stats. They are not near enough sample to support an argument that he has earned a job. The only traditional measures that become reliable short of a full season of regular play are strike out rate and walk rate. Those measures from last year can give a good picture of plate discipline. Danny Santana had an OPS of .824 in 430 plate appearances his rookie year at 23. He also had 98 strike outs and 19 walks. The Twins should only have paid attention to the strike outs and walks at that sample. They were the best measures of his ability to perform.
  8. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t the end of spring training be the right time to try to get Austin to AAA. All teams will be feeling a roster crunch and dealing with players without options. His lack of positional flexibility makes him tough to add as the short side of a 1B platoon. A team like the Mariners would still likely sign a guy like Austin only to DFA him in a few weeks with the hope of keeping him in the organization but the end of spring is still the best time. There will be several players DFA’d and he might not be the best option.
  9. jorgenswest
    How does the Cruz signing limit their focus on developing a system?
  10. jorgenswest
    Nice to have Cruz. It seems important to some that the Twins either be in a rebuilding box or a contending box. I think he fits in either box. Rebuilding teams benefit from veteran leaders. Contending teams benefit from good hitters. He certainly fits in my box. I really enjoy the game of baseball and will be following almost every game. He is likely to make several of those 162 more enjoyable. Now let’s go get a few relievers.
  11. jorgenswest
    The only way to get all of Austin, Cruz and Cron in the lineup against a left handed pitcher is to play one of them in RF or LF. If that is feasible, it should be a very good lineup against a left handed starter.
  12. jorgenswest
    Astudillo offers both positional flexibility and roster flexibility with his option.
  13. jorgenswest
    What does it say about an organization when the 19th best asset was available on waivers? What does it say about Gordon who sits behind at 20? In ranking players would it be reasonable to ask the question, “Would I trade number 20 to get number 19?” Would the Twins have traded Gordon for Cron this winter? If offered a Gordon for Cron today, would the Twins take the deal? Cron has done nothing this winter to increase his value. He can hit but very similarly skilled players have been easily available.
  14. jorgenswest
    I would think projections will be 2-3 WAR. Starting players but not stars.
  15. jorgenswest
    I don’t think any reasonable projection would be based on a single season and certainly not a season where plate appearances were limited.
  16. jorgenswest
    What is the objective measure for “not trying to win”?
  17. jorgenswest
    Mauer's number absolutely needs to be retired. I look forward to the ceremony. If the bar remains the same, I think the only possible next number is Joe Nathan. Relative to the era, it would be difficult to put Jim Kaat in before Brad Radke based on their performance as a Twin only. Santana and Pascual (with his WAS years) also have more WAR in the organization than Kaat but none of the three is very close to Radke. For hitters the next after Hrbek in terms of Twins WAR is Knoblauch and I don't think we will see Knoblauch's number retired. Allison is next and then there is a drop.
  18. jorgenswest
    If the Twins project Odorizzi to progress from a number 4 towards a number 3 extending him makes some sense. Even number 4 pitchers are very useful pieces. How important is it to have a core of veteran players locked up beyond 2019? I am not sure there is a great deal of value but I would rather pay for the rest of the prime in Odorizzi’s case rather than the decline of an older player into his 30s. Interesting thought.
  19. jorgenswest
    Next? I like the question though I want to find an objective way to comment. Radke has nearly as much baseball reference WAR as Blyleven in a Twins uniform. Knoblauch is even closer to Hrbek as a position player. Nathan is the reliever with the most WAR. Any new addition may be lowering the bar though I am not sure where the bar should be for Nathan other than he is clearly the best reliever to wear a Twins uniform. I wonder if anyone would stand out differently with Jay Jaffe’s JAWS. Do we consider the season in Senator uniforms for Kaat, Pascual and Allison? I don’t think they catch Radke or Knoblauch but it would be closer.
  20. jorgenswest
    According to roster resource Duffey has 1 option. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ I am not sure. He was optioned to start the 2016 season but return before the 20th day of the AAA season. He was optioned again at the end August. Maybe an option wasn’t used. If Duffey has an option he could be helpful as a shuttle from AAA to avoid the need for the 13th pitcher.
  21. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the work. I was interested in his K/BB ratio splits in the minors. Going back three years there is not a significant difference in the splits like there is in Austin's major league numbers. 136/65 v right 65/30 v left With your prompting, I have more hope that Austin will hit right handed pitching much better than he has show the last three years in the majors.
  22. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the article. I trust the front office’s goal is a path of sustained success. To get there they definitely need to develop the talent of the 27 and below talent. It is year 3 now and this is their team and their manager. They need results this year. I would set the bar this year as buyers at the deadline. If they can’t make that bar, it is time to look elsewhere for leadership.
  23. jorgenswest
    My plan would be a 7 man bullpen with the last two spots dedicated to players on options that can shuttle if needed to AAA. Looking at the roster resource https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ The Twins have Hildenberger, Moya, DeJong, Curtiss, Duffey, Vazquez and a bunch of AAA starters with options for those two spots. I was surprised by Duffey but maybe an option wasn’t used in 2016. He was recalled in April before that season was 20 days old. The Twins need to fill the top 5 spots adding two free agent relievers to May, Rogers and Reed. I am not sure Magill has the upside to roster without the flexibility of options. He certainly could open the season at the back end of the pen and then get DFA’d when a reliever is needed.
  24. jorgenswest
    Do you cut a guy who might be your best bat against a left handed pitcher? Is that bat more valuable than a 13th pitcher?
  25. jorgenswest
    I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable. The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.
×
×
  • Create New...