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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Marlins have held onto Realmuto demanding an elite prospect. The Twins are s fit. The Twins should strongly consider this deal contingent on a three year extension with Realmuto. They should front load it the first two years. It will be expensive but the Twins should pay up.
  2. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t seem like blown saves is a very useful data point to support an argument. Bad teams don’t have as many opportunities and good teams more often have bigger leads. I don’t think we need anything to support that the Twins bullpen doesn’t look very competitive at this point. It appears the bullpen is going to cost the team wins next year and it certainly did early last year when the Twins were on the losing side of a bunch of close games.
  3. jorgenswest
    I have two wonders about Polanco before being convinced he is a top of the batting order hitter. I wonder if PEDs were a factor in his huge spike in power (as shown by ISO) the second half of 2017. I wonder if his relatively high BABIP in 2018 gave a more favorable perception of his performance than his true skill level. One thing that has been very consistent is a DRC+ that is 3%-7% below league average. He is young. He should improve. I just wonder about the baseline where that improvement starts.
  4. jorgenswest
    A good bunter is going to need good pitch recognition and good hands. Buxton needs that pitch recognition to be a good bunter. Without it he will end up in a bad count having to swing away way too often. I don’t think regular bunting is s good plan.
  5. jorgenswest
    The hidden benefit to preventing more runs at the cost of scoring fewer runs is the reduced burden on the pitching staff. If the differential is the same I believe the better team more often will be the one with fewer runs scored. It is a hidden benefit because the additional run prevention resulting from better pitching the rested staff will not show up in the data of the defensive players. If you believe in the Pythagorean win expectation the best way to improve a .500 team is to prevent runs even at the cost of scoring fewer runs. On the other hand if you are a bad team trying to get to .500 adding offense is the quicker path towards mediocrity.
  6. jorgenswest
    With Buxton’s defense they can be incredibly patient with the bat even if it takes as long as Hicks.
  7. jorgenswest
    The money to Perez only matters if it impacts roster decisions. It should have been clear that Hughes was done early last spring yet he was rostered. It should have clear at the time they dropped Sanchez. If Mejia is clearly the better pitcher and Moya is a better lefty option in the pen they need to be able to cut ties and take the loss. If the 3.5 million is enough to influence that decision it matters.
  8. jorgenswest
    In projecting Perez I think the 2016-2017 should carry significant weight. Last year started with injury and never went well.The 2016-17 version with the slightly below league average FIP (FIP- 102 both years) is a number 4 starter and a good value at the contract. I just don’t care about getting good value though. With their payroll space I want them to take a big risk on an elite player.
  9. jorgenswest
    Looking at Perez data over his career... His best and only positive pitch last year was his sinker. The change up had been a positive pitch in the past. It is hard to imagine decreasing the use f his most effective pitch will be helpful. He has been equally ineffective over his career regardless of time through the line up or pitch count. To me this suggests that he will not be helped by pairing with an opener or stacked with another starter. Over his career he has been much more effective against left handed batters. Maybe they see him as a second left handed arm in the bullpen. I hope the bullpen is the Twins plan for Perez.
  10. jorgenswest
    I don’t see how this helps but this is Falvey’s team and Falvey’s staff. They need to be buyers at the deadline this season or they need to clean out the leadership. I would have added to the top of the rotation and pushed everybody back a slot. I would have looked to the lack of starting pitching in 2020 and found a mid rotation or better starter with 2020 control.
  11. jorgenswest
    Such a contrast between the Angels approach to their bullpen and the Twins. They added Allen and Curtiss this week while not tendering Parker earlier. It is hard for me to see how the Twins come out ahead with these moves. I also realize looking at reliever stats has very little projection value. The Twins have much more data as well as scouts. It is critical they have made the right moves this winter. This is Falvey’s team. This is his coaching staff. My bar for his return next year is the Twins need to be buyers at the deadline. Short of that he and the other front office management must be replaced.
  12. jorgenswest
    The roster resource has Duffey with 1 option. If that is the case the Twins must not have used an option in 2015 or 2016.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would have 5 solid relievers that I would count on to get to the end of games. The 5 now appear to be Rogers, May, Reed, Parker and Magill. Would anyone argue that is competitive? It is hard to be sure that any can be counted on. They need to put somebody in the front of that list and let the others fight it out or a roster spot. I want a 12 man staff to allow a fourth bench spot for a bat like Astudillo so the last two spots need options. Two of these guys make it with the others in Rochester waiting for the shuttle. Moya, Hildenberger, Duffey, Vazquez, De Jong and the AAA starters. If Jay or Reed look good during the season put them on the 40 and get them on the shuttle. They fight it out for the two spots. Romero can win one of the top 5 or be in Rochester and starting. Rogers has an option and can join this group but they are going to need to add two relievers to the top 5 before that happens.
  14. jorgenswest
    Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.
  15. jorgenswest
    It is still the off season. I think they will add at least one significant reliever. I would have passed on Cron and sought a left handed bat. I am not sure adding a left handed bat without options now helps. My Sano insurance would be Astudillo. In fact Astudillo would be my starting catcher until he proves otherwise but I don’t think the Twins will go that direction.
  16. jorgenswest
    Unfortunately neither is helpful in projecting the future performance of a reliever.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins are interested in extensions. I wonder if the players on the advice of their agents are not interested. Seems like there are fewer extensions where teams are buying years of free agency in the last few years.
  18. jorgenswest
    Maybe it was his first game
  19. jorgenswest
    I think I agree but I wouldn’t be very upset if they trade Kirilloff for Realmuto. They would be selling Kirilloff at his highest point thus far in his career and getting a huge upgrade at catcher. We could easily sitting in July 2020 with no solution at catcher while keeping a top prospect significantly struggling with plate discipline in the major leagues.
  20. jorgenswest
    Would you trade Kirilloff or Lewis for Realmuto? I think that would get it done.
  21. jorgenswest
    He wouldn’t be my next to go but sign two more relievers and it might be time. The reasons I will think twice right now... 1) He has an option and can be the virtual 13th or 14th pitcher waiting in AAA to be shuttled back and forth. 2) His strike out and walk ratios remain solid and stable. Those peripherals lead to an xFIP similar to Parker and Hildenberger and much better than Magill. A reliever’s xFIP is a far better predictor for the future than ERA or FIP. 3) He has a good curve ball and I want to see how the new pitching staff can refine and utilize it. He needs a spot on the 40 but not the 25. I would remove Magill and Michael Reed who don’t have options remaining first. I think I would also remove Granite from the 40 before Duffey.
  22. jorgenswest
    I wondered about extensions. I don’t know if I have seen many across baseball this winter. I know that Kershaw and Escobar signed extensions but both could have become free agents this off season. Are there many examples of a player like Gibson signing an extension?
  23. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t look at slash stat splits. They really need a large sample to be reliable. The natural variation of BABip and short term injuries highly influence that data. There may be reason to be concerned about Rosario but shifts in OPS by month do not make a path or a trend or a streak. It is most likely random variation due to sample while his skill level remained the same.
  24. jorgenswest
    Would the statcast coach probability numbers give us an idea about Rosario’s range independent of Buxton? The data goes back three years so we might see if there has been a decline since 2016.
  25. jorgenswest
    Is this directed towards me for a reason? I am not sure how it fits either my few previous comments about Kirilloff or anything we need to know about the Cruz deal. Maybe you are advocating for Kirilloff to start in the majors opening day instead of signing Cruz. I can assure you I would never call a human a hack or trash or something from a dumpster.
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