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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The only quote that I can find directly from Byron is the one above where he acknowledges being upset about not getting called up and also says he wants to end his career as a Twin. What else has he said that leads us to believe he has a strong desire to leave? Is it possible it is noise that his agent or even the Twins inject as part of the negotiation process? Is it in the interest of the Twins to feed someone like Reusse off hand remarks like he might not be happy? Would it help when he leaves to have a narrative of he didn’t want to be here? It may be a good baseball decision from a mid to small market team to let him move on rather than pay up. Game changing center fielders (and number 2 pitchers) are going to get big pay days. Buxton may well leave but the only narrative should be that the Twins chose not to pay up for an elite frequently injured centerfielder.
  2. jorgenswest
    While I have no trouble finding a “might be” from Reusse i have a hard time finding words from Buxton that indicate he doesn’t want to be here. This is from 2018 after they did not call him up in September. I will take those words as stated without trying to read into them my own biases. Buxton has been fantastic since. There has always been an offer that exists where he would have signed an extension. The Twins haven’t been willing to make that offer instead hoping for something team friendly. The same goes for Berrios. Both are betting on themselves and I think both will win that bet. I would pay for both with 2023-2025 in mind while accepting the reality that the current window has closed and won’t reopen again until the Twins develop their own starting pitching. The two will be the foundation of the next window.
  3. jorgenswest
    Tom Hall He looked so promising ages 20-23. I was so disappointed when they traded him for Wayne Granger. The Twins trade Granger to a year later for What looked to be nothing, They received back a 26 year old outfielder who a year earlier wasn’t good enough to crack the historically bad (with the exception of Carlton) Phillies roster. The Phillies traded him to the Dodgers for Tom Hutton who then traded him to the Cardinals for Greg Millikan. Larry Hisle made up for the loss of Tom Hall but they could have had both. … and two for Seth that never got the chance. Chuck Weatherspoon and Ollie Brantley were cited by Rod Carew in his book as being a great help getting through the minors. Both started out in the negro leagues in the 50s. Both were in the Twins system from years playing and mentoring several future Twins including Rod Carew, Jim Kaat, Zoilo Versailles, Tony Oliva, Cesar Tovar, Bert Blyleven and Tom Hall.
  4. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the correction on Barnes. The Twins would just need to keep him on the 40. Jax was effectively the starter tonight with Coulombe the opener. I hope he gets this win.
  5. jorgenswest
    Charlie Barnes was the St. Paul starting pitcher and he got hit hard by Columbus today. I suppose they could have added Barnes. Like Coulombe he is out of options. Who do you want to expose to other teams when trying to return them to St. Paul? My answer to that question is Shoemaker but I would rather keep Barnes than Coulombe.
  6. jorgenswest
    One from a Fangraphs chat… Nate Pearson for Berrios. The Blue Jays get 2 shots at a postseason with Berrios plus a comp pick if he leaves (depending on future union agreement). Twins get 6 years of one of the better pitching prospects taking the risk that he follows the Alex Meyer path.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins should trade expiring contracts. They traded two months of Liriano and received a 23 year old Escobar. It took a while to realize that return but he was worth many times the two months of Liriano in a lost season. They traded two months of Escobar in a lost season and Duran is a very good prospect. They also received de la Trinidad who has a .933 OPS in AA. Maciel doesn’t look like he will make it but as a fast athletic centerfielder at 22 there is still hope the bat will develop. If they are presented the option of a younger high ceiling guys a few years away or low ceiling players ready next year I will take the younger players and wait hopefully on the upside. This is a lost season. They need to move the expiring contracts.
  8. jorgenswest
    Buxton. Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins. The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz. if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.
  9. jorgenswest
    Seems like the return is in line. Hopefully with competition for Cruz the return will be more. The most recent trade I found for a possible comp DH is Beltran to the Rangers in 2016. The Rangers parted with more to get him. Two other rental bats that moved in the last five years were Nick Castellanos to the Cubs (return was similar to those above) and JD Martinez (return somewhat better). I am sure the ability to play OF opened up more competition for their services.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins should not pay for his decline. Keep him through age 31 if they want but do not extend. According to baseball reference the most similar pitcher is Sean Doolittle. He was very good through age 31 and mediocre or injured since. The A’s traded him at 30 and got back a good reliever in Treinen and a good prospect in Luzardo.
  11. jorgenswest
    Rogers is 30. He is not under control for 2023. He is at an age where I would not extend and pay for the decline. The Twins should absolutely look to trade him. It isn’t a situation where they need to trade him no matter the best offer but they shouldn’t need to be blown away either. Sell high. Sell this summer.
  12. jorgenswest
    Is it typical for a 2B to improve with age when it was their primary position in the minors? The footwork, the first step, the arm required to get minor league runners out isn’t that different in the majors. I suppose it was encouraging that his OOA was -2 last year in a shorter season. I hope the Twins see him for the player he is rather than hope on improvement. He is a valuable player even fielding his position in the bottom third at 2B. I think his play at 3B has a better chance for improvement given his lack of time at the position. Perhaps he can approach average if that spot. Even if he can’t how much does it matter when so few groundballs are put in play compared to a few decades ago?
  13. jorgenswest
    Has shifting changed the defensive spectrum? How about the increase in fly balls or fewer balls in play as a result of strike outs? Where does second base fit now? When Bill James presented the defensive spectrum 35 or so years ago defense at second base was more important than CF. I wonder if it is on par with a corner OF or even less important today. Yes. Arraez is a poor fielding 2B. How much does it matter? He is passable at 2B and 3B. His bat needs to be in the lineup most days.
  14. jorgenswest
    The window for contending has closed. To contend for a World Series they need more pitching than they can afford. Minimally they needs number 1 , a number 4, a closer and two other good bullpen arms. They will also need a bat. I get that they can be competitive next year with less but next year should be about the expected growing pains of a young staff as they transition from the oldest staff in the AL. Extend Buxton and Berrios. Front load if necessary. Go through the growing pains of a young team.
  15. jorgenswest
    Garver is already 30 years old. His strike out rate is very high and I think his decline comes faster. I would absolutely take a good trade offer. I don’t need to be blown away.
  16. jorgenswest
    They won’t be able to sign him to a fair or reasonable contract. They will need to pay a premium on that fair deal. Berrios’ motivation to sign is the same for any pitcher. Pitchers risk injury that can keep them out of baseball for long stretches. Berrios will have motivation to sign.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to make a very good offer this summer. This will not be a team friendly deal. If he is not willing to deal they need to trade him this summer to maximize the return. The worst case is thinking this year is an aberration and believing 2022 they cabin truly contend for a World Series thereby keeping Berrios for his last season. They are too many arms away from making that happen. Any attempt will result in the signings of several decline phase veterans in hopes of squeezing out one more year.
  18. jorgenswest
    I watched him pitch in the KBO playoffs last year. I would assume the Twins did also. He signed a major league contract to a team looking forward. He may not work out but we need a front office with foresight. We also need a front office that does not factor in the fan base when making baseball decisions.
  19. jorgenswest
    Seems irresponsible on Reusse’s part to report someone might be unhappy. “Might” isn’t news. You can say that about anyone. This lapse in responsibility gets magnified when others cite Reusse’s report and soon the “might” part gets lost in the noise. Reusse knows that. This same article could have been written without citing Reusse’s empty report. I am confident there exists a number that the Twins can offer in an extension that Buxton will be happy to sign. Are the Twins willing to find that number? Would they be wise to do so? I am not certain. If Buxton leaves it will have nothing to do with happiness. It will be because the Twins weren’t willing to find that number.
  20. jorgenswest
    Great performance from Flexen. He was available this winter. While our front office continues to fill the back end of the rotation with decline phase veterans the Mariners found a 26 year old that might help them at the end of the rotation for a few years. We need a front office that can find potentially useful players like Flexen. Anyone can hope on getting another year of back end pitching from Happ or Shoemaker. Neither is more than a one year hope and the problem of the back end persists to the next off season.
  21. jorgenswest
    Simmons has an OPS+ of 93 which is better than his previous two seasons. He is among the best players in outs above average. He is the player they should have expected. They need to find a team looking for a starting shortstop but they won’t have to give him away.
  22. jorgenswest
    At the deadline in 2011 Baker was having a fantastic year with an ERA of 2.86 and then had arm trouble in August. Cuddyer was also having a great year with an OPS of .852 at the deadline. The rest of the way it was below .700. Those were valuable trade assets.
  23. jorgenswest
    They might be able to compete. I don’t think they can contend next year. In 2011 they might have convinced themselves they could be competitive in 2012 and that did not go well. Get rid of the Donaldson money somehow and spend it towards Berrios and Buxton. If neither is willing to negotiate move them as the White Sox moved several players like Chris Sale a few years back.
  24. jorgenswest
    They should have a reasonable bar set now for those with expiring contracts. They also need to find a way to get out of Donaldson’s contract and move him before he gets injured again. Will it disrupt team chemistry? Of course. The current chemistry is headed 100 losses, can’t score late in games and can’t close games out.
  25. jorgenswest
    I think it goes back to committing so much of the budget to the lineup with the signing of Donaldson. It put them in the position to roll the dice with Hill, Bailey, Happ and Shoemaker in the rotation as well as the bullpen pieces you cited. They could have kept Sano at 3B and went with an inexpensive 1B in order to put more of the budget into a pitcher or two with a greater likelihood of success. Did they have too much confidence in their ability to identify pitching?
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