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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    In isolation I like this move. Other than Machado, I wouldn’t want to give a multiyear contract to any of the middle infielders only to get one good year and pay for the decline. At 27 Schoop would have been a multiyear option but I don’t see why that would be his interest. The Twins still need a good bat for the middle of the lineup. A bat that they can count on to get on base and drive in runs. A bat that can work a count. They can’t be done with the line up.
  2. jorgenswest
    I like both deals and I think it shows they believe in the young middle infielders for the near future. I hope they are pursuing a bat that can hit right handed pitching for DH/1B.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins really need a bat against right handed pitching. My preference would be to take the full contract and maybe even get prospect value back. They can also look elsewhere but they must fill this spot.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would go with the infielder who will take a one year deal. I think this is the position to wait out. The losing team will be the one that spends big on Gonzalez. Through his prime he has a career negative UZR around the infield. He has one fantastic year surrounded by years that won’t work well as a LF. As he declines and has to move away from middle infield I don’t think his bat will play well on a corner.
  5. jorgenswest
    The Twins can’t count on him for the late innings. If he comes back it needs to be a bonus. They need to plan for him to be a low leverage guy and acquire high leverage help.
  6. jorgenswest
    Giving a Lance Lynn type a one year 12 million dollar deal is something they should do every year. I think it will be a plus more often than a loss and the loss is minimal on a one year deal. Austin has a really narrow set of skills where he helps. He really hits lefties well. My plan this spring would be to see if he can play RF near a Grossman level. With Buxton the Twins can afford to have one corner with limited range. That allows them to sit Kepler or Rosario against a lefty. If he can’t play OF it is really unlikely he can make a career as the short side of a 1B or DH platoon. The Twins can designate him at the start of the season when all teams are facing a roster crunch. His lack of position is going to make him very difficult to roster for other teams. He may stick and provide depth in AAA. The other hope is that his pitch recognition skill against right handed pitching makes tremendous improvement. That should be a hope and not something the Twins count on. They need to add that left handed bat this winter.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins did not fill any holes in the line up with Cron. Cron is a fine upgrade over Austin against right handed pitching and comparable against left handed pitching but he does not reduce the need for a player like Bour. If the Twins are thinking that a lineup with Cron and Austin against right handed pitching is a good lineup, we need new leaders doing the thinking.
  8. jorgenswest
    The problem with Austin at DH or 1B is that there is little evidence that he will be a plus bat against right handed pitching. His strike out walk rates vs righties in the minors are not encouraging nor is his performance against right handed pitching in the majors. His best fit was as the short side of a platoon at 1B with the Twins bringing in a left handed bat for 1B. With the acquisition of Cron the Twins still need a good left handed bat for the middle of the line up against right handed pitching. If they go out and sign that left handed bat and he is limited to 1B, I don’t see how they roster three players who can only play 1B. Cron didn’t fill any holes. He is an upgrade over Austin. The Twins still need to fill that hole in the middle of the lineup against right handed pitching.
  9. jorgenswest
    Looking at the Steamer projections, Kepler is projected for the most WAR among the batters and has a WOBA projection second on the team following Cron. I definitely am not in favor of benching Kepler for the same reason I was hopeful about Hicks. It is really hard to improve the plate discipline skill at the major league level. Hicks had that skill and needed to learn how to jump on pitches he could attack rather than work the count every time. Kepler is in that same place.
  10. jorgenswest
    Austin is a good hitter against left handed pitching. Is there anything else? That skill would fit really well with a left handed hitting 1B. With the right handed bats of Cron and Garver I don’t see the fit. My concern is that the Twins will not look for another bat and they really need a left handed bat for the middle of the line up. They don’t need Austin unless he is better than Cron. They certainly can’t afford to give a bench spot to a DH in the short side of the platoon.
  11. jorgenswest
    Grossman has a long track record of solid on base skills. You don’t need to value that skill but partial season slash stat splits are not enough sample to support an different conclusion. He can get on base. That skill has value. He might not bring enough other value but I don’t see many guys on this team that will work a count and draw a walk. If the plan is to bring in a guy with power and on base skills I am all in.
  12. jorgenswest
    OBP probably most unappreciated stat in baseball. It correlates with wins better than SLG and AVG. Working long counts and making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches in an at bat is a relative weakness on the Twins. While not appreciated Grossman has a track record of getting on base and drawing walks better than most of the roster. Who would you project to have a better OBP next year? I can’t think of anyone. I think I would tender his contract.
  13. jorgenswest
    It should be noted that Austin’s data is skewed up due to usage. Cron had a more typical usage with 30% of his plate appearances against lefties. Austin was at 38% in his role. When balanced the difference swings much more in favor of Cron. The Twins really need a Matt Adams type to go with Cron.
  14. jorgenswest
    It might help to start the season with a full bullpen rather than stashing a rule 5 guy and burying a dead arm high salary starter with nothing to offer. Is it a surprise that the real options get overused? Every roster spot matters. That is on the front office.
  15. jorgenswest
    If really like the move if a left handed DH/1B is added. Austin is spring training insurance and late DFA when other teams are also facing a roster crunch. He will be hard to roster. The Twins have an inexpensive upgrade for Austin’s roster slot. This does not fill one of the holes on the roster. Now they need to upgrade Grossman’s spot.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Austin is an option against right handed pitching. His strike out rates against righties through the minors and majors does not project well. I think he will be very good against lefties. Ideally the Twins would have found someone to take the that half of the platoon. Cron is better against right handed pitching but it would be nice to have a left handed bat that could play 1B while sitting him a few times a week. He isn’t someone you want in the middle of the line up against right handed pitching. Cron is likely an upgrade over Austin. If this move means the Twins stop looking for a bat to replace Mauer, I am disappointed.
  17. jorgenswest
    I agree. Aggressively approach taking them both. Taking Grienke’s full contract will ease the return on prospects. It will mean spending virtually all of the space in the budget. I still do it. Spend the bulk of the rest on one reliever. Go inexpensive on a one year 2B contract to a player looking to have a turn around year. Non tender Grossman to save a little. The Twins may never have this much flexibility in their budget. How many other teams are in a position to make this deal? Go for it. Add two real difference makers.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is a never nor is it an always, A rebuilding team can always find space. A contending team needs to find a player and role that fits the roster. In today’s game team’s utilize options to shuttle relievers. You don’t get options with a rule 5 player. If the Twins target a middle infielder that can compete with Adrianza for that bench spot it could be a fit. The back of the bullpen has to be flexible.
  19. jorgenswest
    The cost is roster flexibility. Even if you do roster that player it would be years before you get a return. Ryan Pressly was taken in 2013 and was used in low leverage situations. The Twins in turn had to carry 13 pitchers much of the year. He was sent to AAA in 2014 and pitched less than 30 major league innings in both 2014-2015. In 2016-2017 he was at the back of the bullpen just above replacement level. Finally a pay off in 2018 and the Twins do get good prospects. Likely best case is the guy we take this year pays off in 2024. The much greater likelihood is that the rule 5 addition will be stuck on the roster and increase the need for a 13th pitcher. This will really limit the opportunity for an extra bench bat like Astudillo. I would rather bet on Astudillo and roster those last spots in the pen to guys with options that can shuttled back and forth rather so that the staff can stay at 12 most of the year. How many contenders are going to trade roster flexibility to stash a rule 5 guy in 2019? How many did it last year? If it was foolish not to take a rule 5 player wouldn’t every team take one?
  20. jorgenswest
    I hope the open spots will not result in them taking a player in rule 5. A pitcher nearly guarantees an extra man in the bullpen and a bat like Astudillo in AAA. The only pick might be a middle infielder on the bench who competes with Adrianza for the roster spot.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think Jay is the most likely to get taken. He can be rostered as a LOOGY as well as the usual rule 5 mop up role. It is hard to see where Arraez will fit as a bench player. Teams will still need a back up at SS in addition to him on the bench. He doesn’t offer much as a pinch runner. He doesn’t offer power yet. A team could try to stash him for a year and then put him back in the minors for 2020. I wonder about Navarreto. Is there a parallel to Stuart Turner? Teams can easily roster a good defensive catcher that can’t hit as a back up. They would then return Navarreto to the minors for 2020.
  22. jorgenswest
    Can Arraez play SS? If not, he will be hard to roster. I haven’t seen him play. I know he has also played SS, 3B and LF but they may not be close to major league level. Gordon and Wade would be easy for teams to roster.
  23. jorgenswest
    Was Dombrowski there when they drafted Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Devers or Benintendi? The Red Sox did a fantastic job of draft and development. The Twins need to work on that development part. Hopefully the new Twins staff can develop the young talent on the Twins.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think too many teams will be in a Gonzales given his versatility. I am also concerned that one fantastic year distorts his value. He has 4 other years in his prime centered around 730 OPS and one great year. I would expect around 730 this year and decline from there. He will also decline defensively. His bat won’t play well on a corner as he ages. The Astros have the space to extend him. Why didn’t they? If think he will get three or more years and I don’t want to pay for that decline. I would love to have his 2019 season though.
  25. jorgenswest
    Falvey has his coaching staff. Falvey has a lot of flexibility with the budget. This is his team now and real progress must be evident this year.
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