jorgenswest

In Cave’s case it could simply be random variation due to sample. If our perception of Cave’s ability is significantly influenced by slash stats in a partial season then we don’t start with a very reliable picture. He could perform this year at the same skill level and put up a very different slash of 250/305/410. Some will wonder what happened. It would look like a slump but I think it is more likely the variation of slash stats driven by several factors out of the batters control.

Astudillo

I would hope Austin has been working his tail of getting ready to show the Twins he can play corner OF. I think it is his only path to a significant major league career.

The Twins can’t top the pitcher prospect. The Twins don’t have a 25 year old catcher with promise. If the Marlins’ priorities were getting the best pitching prospect and young catcher they can find, the Twins can’t win that deal. Kiriloff, Graterol and Garver is as close as they can get to beating that offer.

I don’t think we need the three batter minimum. The problem is the mound visits and warm up. If you want to change the pitcher, inform the umpire and bring him in. No commercial breaks. No prolonged mound visit as they get ready. No warm ups on the mound. Play baseball. We also need to end the coach visit to the mound. If it is health related go to the umpire and check the pitcher. Otherwise prepare your team so they know what to do during the game. You don’t need a mound visit where the purpose is often to delay the game.

My interest is anything that improves pace of play and adds generates debate about in game strategy. I also want to see great play from skilled players. Going outside the box I suggest trying... 1) eliminate DH 2) in its place allow all starters one re-entry during the game 3) instead of 3 batters no longer allow warm up pitches for a reliever entering mid inning. 4) add the 26th spot I think the re-entry will be generate strategic talk all game. When do you bat for pitcher? Do you put in a pinch runner defender for Sanó? Follow with a debate when to re-enter Sanó. Teams will have a need for a deeper bench of position players. Their value to the team will be greater than LOOGYs and reduce the number of mid inning changes. It will also bring back platooning. As for the relievers with out warm ups, the time when bullpen mounds were non existent or very poor has long since gone by. Want to change your pitcher? Great. Bring him in and let him go. No commercial. I don’t think we need a mound meeting for this either. Just go tell the home plate umpire. The re-entry is radical but no more radical than the DH was in the 70s. This will lead to better baseball and fewer empty moments in the game. Let’s argue about whether or not to use that pinch hitter for the pitcher with two outs and a runner on second. Let’s argue about how to use that speedy outfielder with great range and no power. I don’t know if it will shorten the game but I do believe the time in the game will be much better spent.

Catcher might be shaky. I am not confident Castro will return as plus defender given his injury and age at the catcher position. I really hope they are ready to cut ties or disable him if he doesn’t return to his previous form. I am also not confident that Garver and Astudillo will be adequate defensively as the regular. Of the three Astudillo might offer the best overall contribution. With question marks for all three I don’t think it is a stretch to think they might need to turn to a Wilson or Gimenez type for too many starts.

They don’t need a good glove as a 4th OF. Kepler and Rosario can play all three spots. It could be Austin or Astudillo. Cruz can finish a game. Cave is a call away if a starter goes down.

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys. They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.

The Marlins have held onto Realmuto demanding an elite prospect. The Twins are s fit. The Twins should strongly consider this deal contingent on a three year extension with Realmuto. They should front load it the first two years. It will be expensive but the Twins should pay up.

It doesn’t seem like blown saves is a very useful data point to support an argument. Bad teams don’t have as many opportunities and good teams more often have bigger leads. I don’t think we need anything to support that the Twins bullpen doesn’t look very competitive at this point. It appears the bullpen is going to cost the team wins next year and it certainly did early last year when the Twins were on the losing side of a bunch of close games.

I have two wonders about Polanco before being convinced he is a top of the batting order hitter. I wonder if PEDs were a factor in his huge spike in power (as shown by ISO) the second half of 2017. I wonder if his relatively high BABIP in 2018 gave a more favorable perception of his performance than his true skill level. One thing that has been very consistent is a DRC+ that is 3%-7% below league average. He is young. He should improve. I just wonder about the baseline where that improvement starts.

A good bunter is going to need good pitch recognition and good hands. Buxton needs that pitch recognition to be a good bunter. Without it he will end up in a bad count having to swing away way too often. I don’t think regular bunting is s good plan.

The hidden benefit to preventing more runs at the cost of scoring fewer runs is the reduced burden on the pitching staff. If the differential is the same I believe the better team more often will be the one with fewer runs scored. It is a hidden benefit because the additional run prevention resulting from better pitching the rested staff will not show up in the data of the defensive players. If you believe in the Pythagorean win expectation the best way to improve a .500 team is to prevent runs even at the cost of scoring fewer runs. On the other hand if you are a bad team trying to get to .500 adding offense is the quicker path towards mediocrity.

With Buxton’s defense they can be incredibly patient with the bat even if it takes as long as Hicks.

The money to Perez only matters if it impacts roster decisions. It should have been clear that Hughes was done early last spring yet he was rostered. It should have clear at the time they dropped Sanchez. If Mejia is clearly the better pitcher and Moya is a better lefty option in the pen they need to be able to cut ties and take the loss. If the 3.5 million is enough to influence that decision it matters.

In projecting Perez I think the 2016-2017 should carry significant weight. Last year started with injury and never went well.The 2016-17 version with the slightly below league average FIP (FIP- 102 both years) is a number 4 starter and a good value at the contract. I just don’t care about getting good value though. With their payroll space I want them to take a big risk on an elite player.

Looking at Perez data over his career... His best and only positive pitch last year was his sinker. The change up had been a positive pitch in the past. It is hard to imagine decreasing the use f his most effective pitch will be helpful. He has been equally ineffective over his career regardless of time through the line up or pitch count. To me this suggests that he will not be helped by pairing with an opener or stacked with another starter. Over his career he has been much more effective against left handed batters. Maybe they see him as a second left handed arm in the bullpen. I hope the bullpen is the Twins plan for Perez.

I don’t see how this helps but this is Falvey’s team and Falvey’s staff. They need to be buyers at the deadline this season or they need to clean out the leadership. I would have added to the top of the rotation and pushed everybody back a slot. I would have looked to the lack of starting pitching in 2020 and found a mid rotation or better starter with 2020 control.

Such a contrast between the Angels approach to their bullpen and the Twins. They added Allen and Curtiss this week while not tendering Parker earlier. It is hard for me to see how the Twins come out ahead with these moves. I also realize looking at reliever stats has very little projection value. The Twins have much more data as well as scouts. It is critical they have made the right moves this winter. This is Falvey’s team. This is his coaching staff. My bar for his return next year is the Twins need to be buyers at the deadline. Short of that he and the other front office management must be replaced.

The roster resource has Duffey with 1 option. If that is the case the Twins must not have used an option in 2015 or 2016.

I would have 5 solid relievers that I would count on to get to the end of games. The 5 now appear to be Rogers, May, Reed, Parker and Magill. Would anyone argue that is competitive? It is hard to be sure that any can be counted on. They need to put somebody in the front of that list and let the others fight it out or a roster spot. I want a 12 man staff to allow a fourth bench spot for a bat like Astudillo so the last two spots need options. Two of these guys make it with the others in Rochester waiting for the shuttle. Moya, Hildenberger, Duffey, Vazquez, De Jong and the AAA starters. If Jay or Reed look good during the season put them on the 40 and get them on the shuttle. They fight it out for the two spots. Romero can win one of the top 5 or be in Rochester and starting. Rogers has an option and can join this group but they are going to need to add two relievers to the top 5 before that happens.

Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.

It is still the off season. I think they will add at least one significant reliever. I would have passed on Cron and sought a left handed bat. I am not sure adding a left handed bat without options now helps. My Sano insurance would be Astudillo. In fact Astudillo would be my starting catcher until he proves otherwise but I don’t think the Twins will go that direction.

Unfortunately neither is helpful in projecting the future performance of a reliever.