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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins are interested in extensions. I wonder if the players on the advice of their agents are not interested. Seems like there are fewer extensions where teams are buying years of free agency in the last few years.
  2. jorgenswest
    Maybe it was his first game
  3. jorgenswest
    I think I agree but I wouldn’t be very upset if they trade Kirilloff for Realmuto. They would be selling Kirilloff at his highest point thus far in his career and getting a huge upgrade at catcher. We could easily sitting in July 2020 with no solution at catcher while keeping a top prospect significantly struggling with plate discipline in the major leagues.
  4. jorgenswest
    Would you trade Kirilloff or Lewis for Realmuto? I think that would get it done.
  5. jorgenswest
    He wouldn’t be my next to go but sign two more relievers and it might be time. The reasons I will think twice right now... 1) He has an option and can be the virtual 13th or 14th pitcher waiting in AAA to be shuttled back and forth. 2) His strike out and walk ratios remain solid and stable. Those peripherals lead to an xFIP similar to Parker and Hildenberger and much better than Magill. A reliever’s xFIP is a far better predictor for the future than ERA or FIP. 3) He has a good curve ball and I want to see how the new pitching staff can refine and utilize it. He needs a spot on the 40 but not the 25. I would remove Magill and Michael Reed who don’t have options remaining first. I think I would also remove Granite from the 40 before Duffey.
  6. jorgenswest
    I wondered about extensions. I don’t know if I have seen many across baseball this winter. I know that Kershaw and Escobar signed extensions but both could have become free agents this off season. Are there many examples of a player like Gibson signing an extension?
  7. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t look at slash stat splits. They really need a large sample to be reliable. The natural variation of BABip and short term injuries highly influence that data. There may be reason to be concerned about Rosario but shifts in OPS by month do not make a path or a trend or a streak. It is most likely random variation due to sample while his skill level remained the same.
  8. jorgenswest
    Would the statcast coach probability numbers give us an idea about Rosario’s range independent of Buxton? The data goes back three years so we might see if there has been a decline since 2016.
  9. jorgenswest
    Is this directed towards me for a reason? I am not sure how it fits either my few previous comments about Kirilloff or anything we need to know about the Cruz deal. Maybe you are advocating for Kirilloff to start in the majors opening day instead of signing Cruz. I can assure you I would never call a human a hack or trash or something from a dumpster.
  10. jorgenswest
    With Buxton in CF and likely good range on the other corner I think the Twins can survive some games with Cruz in the outfield.
  11. jorgenswest
    There will be one player removed now and hopefully at least two other spots as they sign pitchers. It doesn’t matter to me whether they remove an outfielder or pitcher today. I do care that this isn’t the last spot on the 40 they will need to clear.
  12. jorgenswest
    Editing my comment above... Willians Astudillo is an alternative that could match Sano’s defense and provide some offense at 3B.
  13. jorgenswest
    I am encouraged by both the reduction in strike out rate and increase in walk rate in 2018.
  14. jorgenswest
    Good list and they may all go as relievers are added. I would start with those that don’t have options. I think that is Reed and Magill.
  15. jorgenswest
    To project forward I think you would be better off capturing a bigger sample. Most would look back at least three years. There is too much variability in slash stats due to balls in play and injury. That natural variation makes it appear there is a trend when it is more likely that the skill level has not changed.
  16. jorgenswest
    Sano at 3B is critical to the Twins success this year. I don’t think there is an alternative in the organization that would be anything other than replacement level at 3B.
  17. jorgenswest
    Hrbek signed a 5 year extension following the 1984 season extending the team control. He would have become a free agent following the 1987 season after 6 years as a Twin. Kirilloff could be on a similar path relative to age.
  18. jorgenswest
    In any era the players that show the best hope of being successful rushed are going to demonstrate elite pitch recognition and management of the strike zone. The best we have in numbers is strike out and walk rates but that isn’t sufficient. Pitch recognition goes both ways. Players need to lay off pitches that are not in the strike zone. They also need to demonstrate that recognition of pitches that they should barrel up and attack those pitches. We only have traditional data to try to make that assessment about Hrbek. I would look for... - low strike out rates - high ISO (relative to league) - red flag with high walk rates. ISO isn’t great but the best thing we might have to evaluate barrels. I would be concerned about a very high walk rate particularly when the ISO isn’t also high relative to league. I think this is an indicator that the player is not recognizing pitches they should be attacking or are simply unable to barrel the ball up. Instead of an extra base hit they may fouls that good pitch off or take that pitch only to walk later in that at bat. Aaron Hicks needed more time to recognize pitches he should attack. I think a Hrbek fared well in all three. Of the current prospects I am very encouraged by Kirilloff’s ISO and strike out rates. He has 793 minor league plate appearances. Even the rushed Hrbek had 1008. Signing Cruz is not blocking Kirilloff. He needs more time but with another 300 plate appearances as solid as his first 793 I will join the group advocating for his arrival.
  19. jorgenswest
    Are these unique views? Are forum discussions and multiple returns to discuss the article (or often something unrelated) all counted as different views?
  20. jorgenswest
    I would only add that it really isn’t the relievers themselves or their ability that is volatile year to year. The inherit sample of any reliever is too small to be reliable and it is the variablility of a small sample that drives the perception of volatility. This is important in our perception of Addison Reed. We see last year’s number and assume a drop off in skill but that may not be the case. We might have been seeing the 10th percentile results of a reliever his skill level.
  21. jorgenswest
    Sano is very tough to project. I also think he is more likely than others on the list to find himself in trouble off the field which will impact his play or his status to play on the field.
  22. jorgenswest
    Opinion or based on projection models?
  23. jorgenswest
    I don’t think you wait on the HoF. They don’t have a clear borderline. The Twins have done a good job in selection. There is a pretty clear borderline (at least in terms of bWAR in a Twins uniform). Hrbek and Blyleven are the borderline. Knoblauch and Radke are just on the other side. Nathan is another territory for which the border has nor been defined.
  24. jorgenswest
    Cruz is projected for more WAR than any positional player on the team. Adding a player to the top moves the needle for me. They need to add to the top of the bullpen next.
  25. jorgenswest
    I should have included Dozier. I was looking at top prospects and I missed him or he wasn’t there. He was 39/142 in A/A+ I think strike zone management manifests itself two ways. For most it is laying off stuff out of the zone. For Hicks and maybe Kepler it is recognizing and aggressively attacking pitches that should be barreled up. The Twins are getting better data in the minor leagues related to both.
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