jorgenswest
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Everything posted by jorgenswest
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Is it reasonable that he gets 2 starts at catcher and 2 starts at 3B a week? Gonzalez can sit one and replace Schoop on the other day. At the point Sano returns maybe he has shown enough to get a bigger share of catcher.
- 84 replies
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- michael pineda
- willians astudillo
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The Twins won the strike zone that day against a pitcher with a Cy Young reputation and a very good catcher. Let’s hope for more strike zone wins. The catching trio is very encouraging to me. I am hopeful about the defense of both Garver and Astudillo approaching average with their above average bats for a catcher.
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I guess I would wonder about the record for the season prior to the 82-80 or 80-82. Were those teams that fired managers also around 81 wins?
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You might be better looking to the median of 30 for those 26 for typical starter which is .712. I will take that difference in OPS in return for above average defense at catcher. I would do the same in center field. I would have said the same thing about shortstop but infield shifting may be lessening the impact of great defense at that spot.
- 96 replies
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- jose berrios
- marwin gonzalez
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There should have been no thought to pinch hitting for Castro in the 7th with a two run lead. He rewarded the team in the top 8 with that called strike 3 on a 3-2 count. That was so impactful. With another catcher it could easily have been ball 4. Rogers then needs to go deeper in the 8th with the top of the line up. Maybe he gets out of it but can’t finish the 9th as he would be facing at least Santana. When the Twins are behind in the 7th pinch hitting would make sense.
- 96 replies
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- jose berrios
- marwin gonzalez
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So many positives and Berrios dominated. I really appreciated Castro behind the plate. The Indians were off balance all game. I don’t know if Baldelli considered pinch hitting for him in the bottom of the 7th but he really helped with that last out in the 8th receiving that called strike on the bottom edge of the strike zone.
- 96 replies
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- jose berrios
- marwin gonzalez
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Isn’t WPA a counting stat? Wouldn’t it be far worse to have a poorer WPA in fewer innings? Should we discount a home run title because a batter didn’t have enough plate appearances?
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Hildenberger and Rogers have options. Les hope all three pitch so well that they stay in the majors.
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There is a lot of space between below average and bad. I think it is a rare skill set to be play several positions at an adequate level with a bat that is at least league average. I am not confident that his play at SS is still adequate but I think he will be at least adequate at 3B, 2B and LF and provide a good deal of flexibility.
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Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together? I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up. I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.
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I think the teams like Baltimore with a high waiver claim will wait to see who is available on waivers. Why make a deal for Austin? Wait and claim him or claim a similar player.
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I am not sure of a way to pull that from BR play index but since the number of pitchers per game has increased significantly the number of all types of appearances has likely increased including those that start an inning. I did check for how many appearances were less than an inning. Virtually all of those would result in a mid-inning change with the exception of walk offs. In 2018 there were 4492 appearances of less than an inning and in 1998 there were 3479 for a little over 29% increase. Last year ranks second in those type of appearances behind 2015 (4613). 1998 fits in line with the trend with more than any year previous and fewer than any year since with the exception of 2000 (3474).
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This is a result of a steadily increasing number of pitchers used in each game. Since so many more pitchers were used in 2018 than 20 years ago that 11% is part of a much larger number. The number of 1 and 2 batter outing has increased significantly since the 90s but not quite as fast as the number of pitchers per game (partly due to shorter starts). Last year a record number of pitchers were used in games making the fourth straight year that record was broken.
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The trend of pitcher games with 1 or 2 batters faced continues up since LaRussa's use of the bullpen in the late 80's. In 1988 there were 1006 games where pitchers faced 2 or fewer batters. His impact caused a large jump in the 1990s but the trend continues. 1998: 1876 2008: 2057 2018: 2307 2015: 2588 (most) Note: In 1988 there were fewer teams and thus fewer games. From 1988 to 1998 the number of games increased by 15% but the number of short relief stints by 86%. I appreciate that MLB and MLBPA are addressing the number of mid inning pitching changes. My preference would have been to address it by no mound visit/no warm up and no restriction on batters faced but this will help.
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From the album: Images
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From the album: Images
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From the album: tables
1 or 2 batters faced 1961 to 2018 -
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Wouldn’t every calculation of UZR come out the same? The subjective piece has always been part of baseball. A score keeper is deciding whether a hit is an error and 1000 people might not always make the same decision. An umpire has to decide if it is a ball or a strike. Once determined the calculation is the same. I think UZR and DRS would be the same. If we want to use a measure to project the future, it is important to consider how well it correlates year to year. The defensive measures correlate similarly to many outcome based hitting stats like slugging percentage. Like those stat they need a full season of data or more to be reliable.
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(13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP + constant (usually around 3.2) Some might argue that the weights assigned to each event is worthy of debate.
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Should the Twins purposefully overuse Pineda next year? Of course not. I do think that they should not treat him the same as a younger longer term asset though. They should not be shutting him down on the short end of a range of innings as the Nationals did with Strasburg as he passed 150 innings. It is in the Twins interest and Pineda’s that they push the higher end of that range erroring on the overuse side of that range. Pineda is in his prime. He missed his first shot at a contract with injury. Next off season will likely be his last chance at a significant contract. He needs to show that he is fully healthy and can be very effective at handling a full load. The Twins need those innings. They can’t afford to invest into a one year asset shortened starts or extra days for rest. If the Twins are in contention later in the season they need to keep giving him the ball. If they aren’t in contention, they need to show he can handle the workload so they can trade him at the deadline. Perhaps the the term overuse in my earlier phrase “error on the side of overuse” carried to much weight. The Twins need to push the upper end of the innings expectation. It is in their interest and Pineda’s.
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Thanks. I appreciate the work. Pineda is likely a one year Twin. I would error on the side of overuse.
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Defensive stats do need a significant sample size so do many of the batting and pitching numbers that are heavily used on almost any baseball telecast. Not only are these stats presented as meaningful in a partial season sample they are often used in splits that further degrade the sample. One 2018 article with some discussion of the reliability of defensive metrics and reliability. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcasts-outs-above-average-and-uzr/ Defensive stats have evolved since 2012 but here is an early article on their reliability. They have improved since. https://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/ I join those of you that are skeptical of defensive metrics in samples smaller than a full season or even more. I think we should be just as skeptical of slash stats, ERA, FIP and others that are much more commonly cited.
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Article: Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher
jorgenswest replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am not so sure. The difference between his uncertain value due to injury/age and salary may be negligible. Where is the market? Are there enough buyers to drive up the prospect close?- 67 replies
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- jason castro
- mitch garver
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