jorgenswest

Thanks. I appreciate the work. Pineda is likely a one year Twin. I would error on the side of overuse.

Defensive stats do need a significant sample size so do many of the batting and pitching numbers that are heavily used on almost any baseball telecast. Not only are these stats presented as meaningful in a partial season sample they are often used in splits that further degrade the sample. One 2018 article with some discussion of the reliability of defensive metrics and reliability. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcasts-outs-above-average-and-uzr/ Defensive stats have evolved since 2012 but here is an early article on their reliability. They have improved since. https://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/ I join those of you that are skeptical of defensive metrics in samples smaller than a full season or even more. I think we should be just as skeptical of slash stats, ERA, FIP and others that are much more commonly cited.

I am not so sure. The difference between his uncertain value due to injury/age and salary may be negligible. Where is the market? Are there enough buyers to drive up the prospect close?

Looks like the fringes if the 40 have some value to other teams. It is a positive sign when players aren’t easily passed through waivers. Granite’s defense in CF was second to Buxton. Kepler and Cave are adequate in CF so the need for Granite wasn’t there. I am not sure Reed will be around after they get to 25 and I hope they don’t need to go 4 deep in CF.

I guess we go in circles so I will restate my original conditional “Even when everyone is healthy...” The fine tuning is an addition to the clear benefit of being able to insert a league average hitter when someone is out injured.

It is a good thing. Players aren’t going to play every day and they have much better match up data. For instance Sano has done well against fastball pitchers over his career where Schoop has done better against pitchers who feature a sinker and cutter. Gonzalez has struggled more with the curve ball. The Twins will have the data and flexibility to fine tune the line up with the additional solid hitter.

I see the at bats even when everyone is healthy. He can go in for Sano, Cron, Cruz or Schoop against a right handed pitcher. He can go in for Rosario and Kepler when facing a lefty. They ought to be able to find him 5 starts a week without compromising anyone’s regular playing time.

His usage changed after the first half of 2018. When Correia was out in August the manager was giving time to Bregman at SS. There was at least one game last August with both Correia and Altuve out where Gonzalez was not used in either spot. Instead Gurriel was at 2B, Bregman at SS and Davis at 3B with Gonzalez in LF. I find it very odd that Hinch would shuffle his infield around like this if Gonzalez was a capable SS. Davis could have played LF. At SS Gonzalez had a UZR150 of -30.6 and an Rdrs/yr of -22. Those metrics can easily be dismissed due to sample. When coupled with his reduced use at SS starting in late July I think there is reason to wonder if SS is not a position that he can play at an adequate level. This is a good signing at two years. It probably just doesn’t reduce the need for another SS on the team. I will be watching to see if Schoop gets any SS innings this spring.

Did the reporters follow up asking why he significantly reduced playing Gonzalez at SS after July 25 and used Bregman to replace Correia instead? There was a game in August where he started Guriel at 2B, Bregman at SS and Davis at 3B while starting Gonzalez in LF. Davis played OF last year in both the minors and Houston. He could have easily played his defensive infielder at SS, kept Bregman at 3B and played Davis in LF. No manager plays their best defensive infielder in LF when he is so desperately needed in the infield with both Altuve and Correia out. I think the manager’s action weigh heavier than his words here.

He has really only played LF. He has never started a game in CF or RF so playing him in LF means moving Rosario off of his best spot. I like the flexibility they will have next offseason as they need to fill 2B. They can slot him in at 2B or they can slot him in at 3B and move Sano to 1B if Gordon or Arraez step up. As for SS, the Astros did not start him very often later in the season. Instead after July 24 Bregman was most often moved to SS when Correia wasn’t in the line up. It is possible his utility will be as a 2B-3B-LF. Still valuable but not the guy he was two and three years ago.

Hopefully at two years the Twins don’t pay for too much of the decline. If he can still play a passable SS a three man bench of Gonzalez, Astudillo and Garvin is the best in years. I don’t see anyway Reed makes the team as a fourth OF now. I would remove him from the 40.

It depends heavily on whether they are pitching against the top of the order or the bottom half.

The challenge with the opener is expecting a reliever to get through the teams best hitters at the top of the order. It is going to take a very good reliever from a deep bullpen to make it work.

Nice analysis. This should get it done.

On the 3 batter minimum... I have been trying to find a game from last season stuck in my memory for being killed by pitcher changes the last 3 innings. June 3: Cleveland at Minnesota. Twins are losing 4-3 as we enter the bottom of the 7th. Starter Mike Clevenger faced 1 batter. Tyler Olson faced one batter Neil Ramirez faced one batter Oliver Perez cam in and finished the inning The Twins took the lead 5-4 for anyone who somehow kept following the game through all of the stoppages. The Indians had two other pitchers this game that faced 2 or fewer batters. The Twins had one. Four other relievers were used in the game. Nine relievers. 25 batters faced. 16 outs. Killed the flow of the game. While this game had 5 occurrences of a pitcher facing two or fewer batters, it wasn't the most. It might be typical of a close game that otherwise should be the kind of game that brings people to the ballpark. Last year I found 2293 occurrences of a pitcher facing two or less batters. In 1988 there were 1006. Baseball can help here. Make it a 3 batter minimum orAllow only 1 mid inning pitcher change per inning orNo more coach mounds visits of any kind orNo warms on mound for relievers. They have options. The very best games of the year are being killed by constant interruptions from the 7th inning on. Do something.

Thanks. To add... If players aren’t performing they don’t get a continued opportunity the first year. There is a bias in the group towards players performing above their skill level and mean. It is only natural that the group will trend towards their mean in year 2.

In Cave’s case it could simply be random variation due to sample. If our perception of Cave’s ability is significantly influenced by slash stats in a partial season then we don’t start with a very reliable picture. He could perform this year at the same skill level and put up a very different slash of 250/305/410. Some will wonder what happened. It would look like a slump but I think it is more likely the variation of slash stats driven by several factors out of the batters control.

Astudillo

I would hope Austin has been working his tail of getting ready to show the Twins he can play corner OF. I think it is his only path to a significant major league career.

The Twins can’t top the pitcher prospect. The Twins don’t have a 25 year old catcher with promise. If the Marlins’ priorities were getting the best pitching prospect and young catcher they can find, the Twins can’t win that deal. Kiriloff, Graterol and Garver is as close as they can get to beating that offer.

I don’t think we need the three batter minimum. The problem is the mound visits and warm up. If you want to change the pitcher, inform the umpire and bring him in. No commercial breaks. No prolonged mound visit as they get ready. No warm ups on the mound. Play baseball. We also need to end the coach visit to the mound. If it is health related go to the umpire and check the pitcher. Otherwise prepare your team so they know what to do during the game. You don’t need a mound visit where the purpose is often to delay the game.

My interest is anything that improves pace of play and adds generates debate about in game strategy. I also want to see great play from skilled players. Going outside the box I suggest trying... 1) eliminate DH 2) in its place allow all starters one re-entry during the game 3) instead of 3 batters no longer allow warm up pitches for a reliever entering mid inning. 4) add the 26th spot I think the re-entry will be generate strategic talk all game. When do you bat for pitcher? Do you put in a pinch runner defender for Sanó? Follow with a debate when to re-enter Sanó. Teams will have a need for a deeper bench of position players. Their value to the team will be greater than LOOGYs and reduce the number of mid inning changes. It will also bring back platooning. As for the relievers with out warm ups, the time when bullpen mounds were non existent or very poor has long since gone by. Want to change your pitcher? Great. Bring him in and let him go. No commercial. I don’t think we need a mound meeting for this either. Just go tell the home plate umpire. The re-entry is radical but no more radical than the DH was in the 70s. This will lead to better baseball and fewer empty moments in the game. Let’s argue about whether or not to use that pinch hitter for the pitcher with two outs and a runner on second. Let’s argue about how to use that speedy outfielder with great range and no power. I don’t know if it will shorten the game but I do believe the time in the game will be much better spent.

Catcher might be shaky. I am not confident Castro will return as plus defender given his injury and age at the catcher position. I really hope they are ready to cut ties or disable him if he doesn’t return to his previous form. I am also not confident that Garver and Astudillo will be adequate defensively as the regular. Of the three Astudillo might offer the best overall contribution. With question marks for all three I don’t think it is a stretch to think they might need to turn to a Wilson or Gimenez type for too many starts.

They don’t need a good glove as a 4th OF. Kepler and Rosario can play all three spots. It could be Austin or Astudillo. Cruz can finish a game. Cave is a call away if a starter goes down.

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys. They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.