jorgenswest

I never expected that Target Field would be the difference between a team that ranked in the bottom quartile according to revenue to a team that could keep all of the their free agents. It moved them into the third quartile and appears to have allowed one big contract in Mauer and then Donaldson. My only expectation is that their payroll rank is at least as high as their revenue rank. If they can trade Donaldson and recapture enough to give be able to keep Buxton and/or Berrios that would be my preference.

Rogers and Berrios may be the best available left handed reliever and starter. The Twins should expect an overpay if trading either. I think combining them limits the overpay. No bundling. I would move them in separate deals and set the bar high. Berrios needs to bring back someone better than Gray and Rogers needs to bring back someone better than Miller. The target from the Dodgers is Gray. Rogers alone may not be enough but the add should be one of their outfield prospects. BTV still won’t accept it but someone has to come in and motivate the Twins to sell Rogers. The demand should be high. If the Twins don’t get that overpay the better route is to keep him and hope to be buyers in 2022.

The challenge is to identify prospects in other organizations that are not seen as top prospects but develop beyond expectations, Cleveland’s trade for Kluber is an example. It is also an example of patience. They traded for him in 2010 at 24. He was up for a cup of coffee in 2011 and struggled mightily in twelve 2012 starts. By 2013 he was a league average pitcher and 2014 dominant. From the outside I don’t know if it was dumb luck or their scout’s ability to identify talent or their development but his development was not foreseen in the press at the time of the trade. They also traded for Carlos Carrasco at the deadline in 2009. He was the number 68 ranked prospect heading into the season and was struggling in the minors that season with a 5.73 ERA at the time of the trade. Between 2009-2013 he struggled in 40 starts (as well as 8 in relief) as he bounced back and forth to the minors and dealt with injuries. He was a valuable piece of the rotation by the end of 2014. The Bauer trade was in 2012. He was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. It was 2016 before he was a very good pitcher in the majors. It took Cliff Lee to get him who was seen as the best pitcher available at the deadline. Identifying and developing pitching is going to take patience. It is also a path for a small to mid market team towards a sustained competitive window. Can we wait 5 years for this season’s trades to pay off? Can we invest innings into young pitching that will struggle early on? I don’t think the Twins have an alternative towards that contending window. I think they can hope to be competitive but not really contend by patching by continually hoping to squeeze on more year out of a veteran pitcher. Does it mean that the close starts now? No. They have Duran, Canterino, Winder, Alcala, Ober and Balazovic. They will need time in the majors to struggle but I think all can be ready to start that struggle by next year. It is easy to dismiss Dobnak and Thorpe based on their performance but it is not unusual to have significant struggles early in a pitching career. It requires a staff that recognizes the talent beneath the struggle and then invest innings.

Nice start from Maeda. Both he and the Twins needed this start.

I keep him. He may be a fourth outfielder but fourth outfielders will get a lot of at bats. There is no reason to sell low.

Donaldson can be valuable to a contending team. He needs to be healthy and the team needs a contending core. He wasn’t healthy last year when they needed him and they are a long way from contending with their pitching this year and next. I would move him soon before he is injured again. Miranda’s best spot is 3B and Donaldson isn’t nearly as valuable at DH.

I am not as confident in Wes Johnson. He seemed to work miracles with Tyler Duffey. Look at the whiff percentage on his fastballs by season. Before Wes his fastball was mediocre to poor. 13.1, 13.6, 18.6, 17.3 2019-2020 it was outstanding with XBAs under .200 30.2, 29.5 In 2021 it is back to the start of his career. 15.2 What changed when Wes arrived? Was it tunneling? Fastball location? What is different this year that the whiff rate has returned to pre-Wes levels?

It was the right decision. Shoemaker has battled so hard to fight through all of his injuries. It has to be a tough way to go out.

As I read paragraphs two and three I see the value of spin and a fastball particularly a fastball up in the zone. I see how an increased spin rate on fastballs at the same velocity increase swings and misses. Later I read that unlike breaking balls where a grip can change the spin rate it is very difficult to change the spin rate of the fastball naturally. Unnatural means are needed to change that spin rate and get more swings and misses on the fastball. Is it possible that spider tack use has been more important or at least as important to the fastball than breaking balls? Ultimately whether it is sticky substances or not there were no swings and misses on Maeda’s 36 fastballs in his last start. In two of his three previous starts there were no swings and misses on the his fastball. He can’t succeed as a starting pitcher without a fastball.

I am not sure what you mean about truths. I appreciated and bookmarked this fivethirtyeight article from 2018 on fastballs, spin rates and swings and misses. A small excerpt…

As for age Earl Battey is still my favorite player and I do not want the Twins to throw away the next three years. In order for this small to mid market team to achieve success an truly contend for a World Series they will need inexpensive team controlled pitching. Pitching is too expensive to build through free agency. I think I they throw away next year and delay that pursuit by signing more Hill’s and Happ’s and Colome’s and Robles’. I acknowledge that they would need those types of signings to be competitive but I want a team that contends. My plan would be to sell off everything. Many of those pieces are not going to get a top prospect and we will need to rely on the front office to identify those middling to unknown prospects as Falvey’s Cleveland team did. Now is the time to trade anyone not under control in 2023. Buxton and Berrios are the exceptions as I would pay up to extend them. I am not throwing away 2022 but using it to begin laying the foundation for the future. The Twins opened this last window without a foundation of starting pitching and instead patched with annual free agent patches. The window closed abruptly without that foundation. It was fun while it lasted but time to acknowledge that it has closed.

Doesn't the sticky stuff help with command? It isn't just spin rate.

Fair enough. So basically you wouldn't pick Kirilloff or Larnach or Sabato but would go with a pitcher or someone who will stay up the middle. I wouldn't limit myself.

You might not get both but the Twins are trading two post seasons of Berrios and a comp pick. The comp pick has value.

How about Pearson and Hiraldo from the Jays? It is listed as a minor overpay on the Jays part.

I think they better go with whoever they think can make an impact. They draft 26, 36 and 61. Since 1965 the best pitcher ever drafted in the 26th spot is Dan Plesac. There are three others with a positive career WAR (Jeremy Bonderman, Kelly Wunsch and Bryan Morris). On the brighter side Randy Johnson was drafted in the 36th slot. He is one of just three players with more than 10 career WAR from the 36th spot. Jesse Crain is the 4th ranked player picked at 61. It is really hard to draft well outside of the first few picks. I don't think they would be wise to narrow their chances even more by restricting themselves to pitchers, shortstops and centerfielders.

He is valuable. He is inexpensive. I would keep him short of getting a good starting pitching prospect back.

Why not move him to the bullpen and reduce his fastball usage? Let him prove he can be effective and bring him back in August based on performance. The answer is they don’t have anyone else. That isn’t a good enough answer though. There are significant incentives tied to his being an effective starter. I would put him in the bullpen even if it means Shoemaker, Jax or openers in the rotation. I would get Winder in the rotation as soon as possible. He turns 25 in October so service time is not an issue.

Kenta Maeda threw 36 fastball yesterday. For those 36 fastball he got no whiffs and they generated his lowest fastball spin rate in the last two years. In three of his last 4 starts he has no swings and misses on his fastball. Does he need a sticky ball to be effective? Can he command his fastball without a sticky ball? Below is a chart of his spin rates comparing 2020 vs. 2021. How should the Twins proceed? If he can't command his fastball do they need to put him in the bullpen where he can limits its use? They need bullpen help and it would certainly save them several million in incentives. He may be a very valuable bullpen piece at a very reasonable cost. The incentives start adding up soon. This is a lost season. Should the Twins move him to the bullpen? He certainly can't win games as a starter if his fastball continues to be so ineffective. Data from baseball savant

on 2011… In Baker’s two starts prior to deadline (July 23 and 28) he pitched 12 innings, gave up 2 runs, struck out 9 and walked 1. His pitched 7 innings and threw 97 pitches in that July 28 start. The likelihood that a number 32 draft choice will be successful is very small. There are 6 players drafted in that slot since 1965 with more than 10 career WAR. Three more will likely get there. The Twins can’t expect a comp pick to be a Berrios. There is much greater likelihood that an established good prospect will have a career. The Twins probably got lucky with Luke Bard also. His career WAR of 0.2 ranks 12th in his draft slot since 1965. Many do do not close to the majors. Should the Twins count on getting a Berrios back as a comp pick? The two players where comp picks are possible are Buxton and Berrios. I would pay up to sign them to extensions. Can they even count on comp picks with the uncertainty of the agreement with the union? Looking forward I would sell off now. I would sell off expiring contracts. I would sell Donaldson if it meant either getting back prospects or retaining at least 16 million to spend on Buxton and Berrios. I would sell high on Rogers rather than pay for his decline. I would have sold off Garver also but not sure when he will return as a catcher and I think he has little value as a 1B/DH. I am trading for prospects and starting the rebuild. I don’t think it is possible to build a World Series contending pitching staff for 2022 and while being in the hunt for a wild card is possible it isn’t my long term goal. My goal is a World Series pitching staff and that can’t happen until they have a foundation of home grown pitching.

I think the season to learn from is 2011. Their pitching was old and second from the bottom (to the Orioles) in league ERA. They believed their competitive window was still open and the decisions they made lengthened the time they spent on the bottom. They tried to reload. For 2012 they added veteran Jason Marquis on a team friendly deal. They tried to squeeze another year out of Carl Pavano. They added 30+ arms Jared Burton and Jeff Gray to the bullpen. Scott Diamond was a rule 5 patch that seemed to help. On offense they added 30+ Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll(38!) killing any thought of preventing runs with the glove. They also brought in Jeff Burroughs. They couldn’t see that it was over. Yes… trading Perkins, Pavano, Cuddyer, Kubel, Baker and even Mauer would have angered the fan base in a new park. All of those players were near or older than 30. They certainly would be in decline before the pitching could be fixed. Hindsight on my part is easy here. We need a front office with foresight. They need to put aside their own need to win now to keep their job for the longer term outlook of the franchise. They need to see that this window has closed. They need too much pitching and it can’t be fixed with Marquis or Happ or Burton or Robles. They need to aggressively sell and they need to go through the growing pains of young pitching for a few years. They need to commit to starting their young pitching. Giving Liam Hendricks 28 starts spread over three years is not a commitment to his development. They need to sell.

They have an issue. I think they have chosen to go with veterans than trusting their own prospects. Individually the moves can all be explained. Cave over Wade. The assessment had to be that Cave was the better backup CF (my eyes don’t see it but analytics support it). Celestino over Baddoo. Keeping both on the 40 man is a challenge when the spots are so valuable on a team that believes the contending window is open. Center field won out here. Gil and Ynoa. I think it comes down to the same thought that they would need to be on the 40 long before they would trust them to help in the major leagues. I don’t think Gil had ever even made a Seth Stoh’s prospect handbook when he had been traded. I get that the window looks to be opening in 2017 and certainly appeared wide open in 2019-2020. The window has closed. They need to make decisions betting on the long term futures of guys like Baddoo and Gil rather the short term need of a bullpen arm or bench bat.

I am looking beyond 2022 and I wouldn’t count on the “only 30” crowd to maintain the same performance at 32. For 2022 Robles is a free agent. Rogers, Duffey and Thielbar will be in arbitration. Keeping all four will be more expensive for likely some decline in overall performance. I would listen to offers on all four and wouldn’t need to be blown away by that offer to move them.

Happy Birthday Jose Miranda!

Are any of those players on the 40 man roster? Would the Padres also need to DFA four players to make this deal work?