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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Happy for Hendriks. He has been DFA’d several times but it is still very frustrating how the Twins developed him. He came up too early 22 and wasn’t ready. In his two main seasons with the Twins he started 24 games. Who was his main catcher? Ryan Doumit caught 11 of those starts. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herman caught 3 each. I am sure Gardenhire was thinking something like... “Hendriks has good control we can afford to start Doumit here.” He would then complain about him nibbling. The reality is a guy like Hendriks that can paint the black needs a catcher that can frame that pitch on the black. Instead with Doumit his pitches needed to catch more of the strike zone inside the black to be called a strike and we saw the results. Last night Hendriks was nibbling in the high 90s painting the black for two innings, Herrman had someone teach him how to receive a ball and thankfully that era of Twin baseball is in the rear view mirror. I am hopeful that the Twins will find some value in a talent like Littell. That would not have happened in 2012.
  2. jorgenswest
    Rogers use is similar to Hader’s this year with about the same number of appearances and innings (particularly since becoming the closer). This isn’t the traditional use of a closer but maybe fewer appearances and warm ups is better on the arm. I don’t think Rogers has warmed up very often without entering the game.
  3. jorgenswest
    Nice work by Gibson. That is the kind of start against a good team that can win a playoff game. Rogers is awesome. Another two inning save. I love how Rosario was ready on that first pitch. It was a really good at bat by Sano to draw a walk. He had a hard time laying off those pitchers on the low outside edge earlier in the season. So often it would be a strike called on his attempt to check his swing. It was also an alert play with a good secondary to get home on the passed ball. Loved the defensive play by Gonzalez in the outfield. He has been so reliable at so many spots.
  4. jorgenswest
    Catchers rarely catch day game after night game. The Twins face two lefties so Baldelli chose last night to start Castro. I would have made the same choice given it was a bullpen game for the Mets. It turned out Castro had one completed at bat against Matz though he was up a second time when they failed to execute a double steal. A move the Twins likely made because they lacked confidence in Castro.
  5. jorgenswest
    I agree but if I can’t win in a deal on quantity I would still be willing to give up higher ranked prospects. In this market I think it is going to take quality.
  6. jorgenswest
    Assuming everyone is healthy and I question whether Buxton is healthy, I would drop back to 12 pitchers and DFA Morin. I think the Indian series made clear that Magill and Morin are the last two in the pen right now. It is a matter of time before they are moved. I am also confident that there are pitchers in AAA who can take that spot in the pen if needed.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think the market is going to drive prices up. Only the Marlins are truly out of wild card contention in the NL. The Giants are 3 games out and playing well right now. The Mets are 5.5 out with an unpredictable front office. In the AL the Blue Jays and Tigers have some very good pitchers to offer that are not rentals. They don’t need to trade them unless blown away. The Giants are not in a budget crunch. They don’t need to trade their expiring contracts and throw in this season unless they are blown away... certainly not while they are three games back. I am not sure comps from last year are going to apply in this market. It might take more. It also might take some patience. In two weeks a few more teams might drop out.
  8. jorgenswest
    The 2018 fangraphs values Dillon Tate FV 45 - 24 years old starter Cody Carroll FV 40 - 25 years old reliever Josh Rogers unranked - 23 year old lefty starter with 3.95 ERA in AAA I used July 1 age but Rogers and Tate are virtually the same age with birthdays on both sides of July 1 In Gonsalves, Smeltzer and Thorpe the Twins are close to Tate but not quite there. It might take two of them plus a reliever or maybe one of them Stewart and reliever. I know my suggestion on Stewart, Gonsalves and Stashak is light because there is one FV 40 compared to a 45 and a 40.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think Britton is a better comp by age and handedness. Smith is a better piece than Soria and Medeiros was significantly younger than Stewart. Smith is still a better add than Britton as Britton was coming off injury. It took three near ready major league pitchers to get Britton. Maybe Stewart, Gonsalves and Stashak would be a match for that deal. It might take Thorpe over Gonsalves.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think Schoop has more value to this team than Morin or Magill and if somehow all off the position players are healthy when Rosario and Cron return I would go with 12 pitchers and DFA Morin. They made it through this Cleveland series using 11 pitchers. If they lose Morin, I have as much confidence in some of the pitchers in AAA. Two factors might work against Arraez as the season progresses. He won’t likely sustain his plus .400 BABIP. Teams may adjust in both the way they pitch to him and shift (or not). He may endure some struggle that he has not encountered in the minors and it is hard to predict how he will handle the struggle.
  11. jorgenswest
    He started warming up when it was 3-2. The broadcast showed him warming up top 8. Cave got the job done and his load was reduced an inning but I think we would have seen Rogers for two innings if Cave (or Buxton) failed to bring in those runs. I don’t have any problem with handing the game to Rogers for two innings against Cleveland if the game stayed 3-2 or putting him out there for one once the lead became larger. Once warmed up he was probably not an option for today.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would be very concerned that his swing and miss rate has not changed and his xFIP is 3.71. Someone will be buying high here. I think he had a mediocre second half.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to take advantage of this season. The future is too hard to project. While the Indians look like they might be retooling, the White Sox may take a huge step forward with their young starting pitching and some key young position players. The Twins need to be aggressive and get a playoff caliber starting pitcher as well as a late inning reliever this month even if it costs a prized prospect.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is Kirilloff and Lewis that sets the Twins apart from some of the competition. Having more depth in 40-45 prospects (fangraphs value) doesn’t matter in the trade market. Everyone has enough of those prospects to put together a package. The Twins have the headliner for a package if they choose to use those assets.
  15. jorgenswest
    Intriguing article in the Athletic about how they are working with Sano to manage the upper half of the strike zone. Simplistically his hands start higher. Maybe we are seeing some of the fruits of that work. We also might have seen the cost of trying to make the change in his really poor stretch. Change often comes with a drop before growth.
  16. jorgenswest
    Would ripping players in the postgame help the team win more games? If so. Do it. I don’t think it helps and if anything makes it harder to work with a player. With social media a manager’s words are immediately available and easily repeated. That wasn’t the case when Gardenhire started managing. I think Rocco has this part figured out.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think his numbers are better than his skill. Moving back to the AL and leaving a park that is very difficult on left handed power could cause an abrupt shift in his numbers.
  18. jorgenswest
    Morosi and Olney have both reported the the Indians would listen to offers on Bauer, Hand and Santana if they didn’t make up ground on the Twins.
  19. jorgenswest
    Diaz is one of the few prospects that have taking a step forward this year. His .243 ISO mixed with a 17.1% K rate is encouraging. It is a key step moving to AA. We need to get him on the list of prospects we follow at the bottom.
  20. jorgenswest
    I believe so. MLB is playing to a more general audience and the reality of only a handful of guys in each system projected to be an average major league regular is not going to excite a fan base.
  21. jorgenswest
    I agree. I am sure the day started with little sleep and a lot of travel followed by a long game.
  22. jorgenswest
    If Cleveland makes him available it could be pay up to get him or bat against him in the playoffs.
  23. jorgenswest
    That really all comes down to the Pressly trade. They received back the preseason 10 and 14 prospects both 40s. There are similarly rated prospects in your quality list. I would agree that the two trend towards quantity. Everybody has similarly rated prospects. The challenge is that beyond Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol any other team can play in that market. Pitching is the best trade currency and the untouchable list has four of their best pitching assets. I would hang up and call someone else if I was told those pitching prospects were untouchable. If the Twins want to get a pitcher at the top of the bullpen or rotation it is going to hurt. They will lose quality prospects.
  24. jorgenswest
    Consider it from the other end. What kind of prospects would you want the Twins to pursue? Quantity or quality? I am in the quality camp.
  25. jorgenswest
    I agree and add... It helps to pitch with a lead. It helps to pitch in front of a better defense. I wouldn’t want to face Bumgarner in the playoffs.
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