jorgenswest

Four and 50 should do it. Power at 1B/DH has been pretty inexpensive the last few years. That trend will continue with the explosion of home runs this year. To really get paid players are going to need to bring something else to the table. It could be positional flexibility or defense or speed or leadership or even a record of good health. What else will Sano offer to get that elite contract?

I think it could be argued that Fernando Romero’s first 5 starts with an ERA below 2 and 29 Ks in 28 2/3 innings were even more encouraging in that moment. We love this moment of Dobnak’s first 28 1/3 major league innings but I am not sure I would bet on Dobnak having a better career than Romero.

The Twins should be guaranteeing any money to a 30s reliever coming off shoulder surgery.

I should have looked at that and now that I did I was surprised by the data. Smeltzer has faced right handed batters in over 75% of the plate appearances against him. That is much higher than the team split of 59% right handed batters. I guess it isn't that surprising since most of the plate appearances against him have come in starts where the other team stacked the line up with right handed batters. I was surprised that he has been much more effective against right handed batters this year who have posted a .721 OPS against him. Lefties have hit him much harder at an .869 OPS.

I think Littell is a lock. He has been used against more difficult batters and has been better than the league against those opposing batters.

I explored some more with BP's statistics. This time I looked at the quality of batters each pitcher has faced. The pitcher who has faced the highest quality of opposing batter is Devin Smeltzer. I found it interesting that opposing batters have fared worse by OPS against Smeltzer(.756) than the rest of the pitchers they have faced (.780). Tyler Duffey has dominated this year. He hasn't faced near the quality of batter (.731) but with a .582 OPS against he has the biggest differential on the team. I don't know what to make of slash stat data at this sample. The opposing batter data set would be huge but the data set for the individual player maybe small. While I am very certain that Smeltzer overall has faced a more difficult set of hitters than Duffey I don't know what to make of their individual opposing OPS number. In any case I find it encouraging to be on the positive side. Of the pitchers that could be eligible for post season there are 11 who have a better OPS against than the opposing pitchers of their batter set. This set is order from biggest positive differential to least. Tyler Duffey Trevor May Sergio Romo Taylor Rogers Jake Odorizzi Randy Dobnak Ryne Harper Jose Berrios Zack Littell Devin Smeltzer Brusdar Graterol Harper has performed much worse recently. I don't think I would have him on my playoff roster. The other 10 would be on my roster. The remainder needs to come from pitchers who have performed worse by OPS than the other pitchers that have faced the same batters. Stashak, Perez and Gibson are close to even but Perez and Gibson have not performed well recently either. The only other pitcher in consideration is Thorpe who has been hit hard by opposing batters. I guess I would go with Perez and Stashak but treat Perez as more of an opener with a really short leash second time through the line up. Two other Twin pitchers posted a positive this season. Mike Morin and Michael Pineda. Pineda really let us down.

While we don’t have enough information the Twins have plenty of information. The major league ball spins the same as the AAA ball. They have all kinds of data about which pitches will be effective against the Astros or Yankees. They have all kinds of data on how well the pitcher has executed the pitches they were supposed to throw. They probably did not know the whether the IL stay may have helped Gibson recover. We know now. He hasn’t recovered. As for the plan I would be surprised if games 2 and 4 were not bullpen games. We have seen plenty in preparation this month including three in huge games. Dobnak is truly an amazing story. Few players from his draft class of 2017 have arrived in the majors. Keston Hiura is the only one that stands out in my mind as making a better first major league impression than Dobnak. Dobnak wasn’t even drafted. I am not sure if anyone in his college has ever played in the minors. If he adds playoff success somebody needs to write a book and make a movie.

I became interested in the Astudillo discussion in the resting players topic and wondered about Astudillo's use. I have been thinking about this since his critical hit against Matt Barnes in the Red Sox series. Matt Barnes is a right handed pitcher with the highest k/9 rate in the AL and nearly the highest AL k-rate at 38%. The Twins are tied with the Red Sox 1-1 in the 7th inning. Miguel Sano is in scoring position with two outs. The Twins have 1 hit through 6 2/3. Jonathan Schoop is coming to the plate and in comes Matt Barnes. It is time to pinch hit with a left handed batter or so I thought. They have Polanco and Wade on the bench. They also have Astudillo. Astudillo? Why Astudillo? Kepler is up next. Let's get someone on base. Polanco or Wade must be a better choice. I was certain. Astudillo slaps a single to right field for the Twins second and last hit of the game. The Twins hold on to win 2-1. Lucky decision on Baldelli's part I muttered. The moment stuck with me though. I wondered... "When does Baldelli choose to use Astudillo?" With the help of Baseball Prospectus I looked to the quality of opposing pitcher for each Twin hitter with over 100 PAs. We have heard that the line ups are well thought out and planned. Maybe some hitters have faced a more difficult set of pitchers by design. Not surprisingly the typical pitcher faced profile for a Twin hitter is Polanco. He plays the most. The opposing pitchers he has faced have allowed a .770 OPS resulting in a 105 oppRPA+. More than half of the Twin hitters bunch in the interquartile range of 104-106. Only one Twin batter has faced better than league average opposing pitching this year with a 99 oppRPA+. Willians Astudillo. Astudillo's 746 oppOPS is two standard deviations away from the typical opposing pitcher faced. I don't think this happens by accident or randomly. Baldelli must either be choosing to play Astudillo against more difficult pitching or at least choosing to rest players against a more difficult pitcher. If you are still reading and curious the Twin closest to Astudillo is Arraez at .751 and the only other Twin more than a standard deviation away in this direction. There are two Twins on the opposite end though not near as far from center as Astudillo. Marwin Gonzalez (.779) and Byron Buxton (.781) have seen the pitchers who have given up the highest OPS to the hitters they have faced. Does this or should this give us a different impression on Astudillo's performance at the plate this year?

They may carry two starters and 10 relievers into the playoffs with bullpen games 2 and 4. Graterol is one of my 10 or even 9 if they keep a third starter. Even with a start from Perez they still need a lot of relievers behind him. I don’t think Gibson will be healthy enough to start.

My eye sees well below average lateral range that can not be compensated for by playing deeper without a strong arm. The DRS and UZR are real and more reliable than a batting average for future projection at this point. Neither is near enough sample. I think we can be confident in the on base skills that have been consistent throughout his professional career. I think we have also seen the quality of his approach at the plate. It shouldn’t be ignored that there also have been questions about his arm and range over his professional career. His bat will play. Like Sano at 3B he is OK at 2B for now but may need to move down on the defensive spectrum as his career progresses. I will leave with a thought for another article. Is the defensive spectrum changing due to the increase in fly balls and the data used to shift infielders. Will corner Of spots be more important defensively than 3B and 2B with this evolution? Maybe 2B is the perfect spot for Arraez.

Every playoff game is a bullpen game. I would pitch Berrios game 1 and 5. I would pitch Odorozzi game 3. Games 2 and 4 depend on who looks healthy and is throwing well over the next two weeks.

I think the better question is... What contract would you offer Pineda for 2020? I guess that does assume everyone would take him on a minimum minor league deal but maybe that isn’t true. My negotiation ceiling is at one year 8 million (effectively 6 million).

He should be ready after his suspension. I recall Santana being able to play in the minors prior to his suspension ending. I also think that they will need someone by that point in the season. Those aren't my concerns. My concern would be that he was masking PEDs and those PEDs helped his performance or kept him healthier. Given those concerns I wouldn't pay more than 8 million (essentially 6 million) for his services. Does he need to sign a contract to begin serving a suspension? I would guess so. If not he might be better off waiting and seeing who needs pitching at the quarter pole.

His upside is average defender, average base runner and professional at bats against left handed pitchers.

It is hard to see any 2019 upside in Kirilloff. I do believe in his upside and look forward to his bat at 26 and hope that it arrives sooner. He needs to consistently hit in AA first. He didn’t.

My first thought with Buxton out and Pineda’s suspension opening up a roster spot was Kirilloff. I then went and looked and he really didn’t perform that well when returning from injury. He had a good end of season but minor league pitching is pretty thin at the end of the season. I think he is up if he dominated AA over the long stretch of the season. He didn’t. He wasn’t close to dominating. A .413 SLG for a power hitter isn’t encouraging. He probably should start at AA and dominate until June before heading to AAA next year. My initial thought to call up Kirilloff was based on hope of who he might be some day based on 2018. I think he has a good ceiling but I don’t think he is anywhere near that ceiling this year and there is no reason it would be different against major league pitching. I don’t see options. It is hard to plan for losing Buxton, Gonzalez and Kepler for a stretch. Add Rooker’s injury and Kirilloff’s set back due to injury and you get Wade and LaMarre.

Strawberry signed a free agent contract that off season at a base of 5 years and 20.5 million. Jack had a guarantee of 3 years and 7 million. It was less than the guarantee from the Tigers. He had the incentives to earn 11 million over 3 but that was never going to happen. If he pitched poorly he would get the 7 million. If he pitched well he had an option out so he could go get the going rate for a top starter. The week he signed with the Twins, Clemens signed for over 5 million across 4 years with the Red Sox. Morris got his 5 million when he predicted out and signed with the Jays, The Twins did take advantage of the end of the collusion era to get Morris on a make good one year contract while minimizing their risk. I don’t think the financial burden in that signing compares in any way to the burden of signing the top free agent this winter.

If Kirilloff had dominated AA I think it would be different. For much of the year his numbers weren’t remarkable. It was clearly the injury that set him back but he missed that valuable time and couldn’t make the most of the time as he recovered. The Twins should be aggressive as they were with Arcia, Sano and Buxton when players dominate a level. I think they would have been with a healthy dominating Kirilloff.

Is whether Pineda took PEDs relevant to the discussion about resigning him? Maybe it matters for that discussion.

A few unconnected thoughts... Thorpe and Smeltzer have a chance to step up. If Cave and/or Cruz are injured do they need the roster spot for Kirilloff? He didn’t hit for power returning from injury but that seems behind him now. This has to hurt Pineda’s hopes for a good contract in free agency. Should the Twins be interested in a 1 year deal for his shortened season?

I think we will see the playoff roster thoughts these two weeks. If Miller isn’t useful these 12 games from Boston to the second Cleveland series, how will he be useful in the playoffs? Put him in to pinch run now and a deep bench is there to replace him. In the playoffs they are probably have to keep his bat in the line up. So far they haven’t really needed him in spite of some close games.

Absolutely they should put Graterol in high leverage. If not don’t put him on the 40. They also should have let him battle the first batter instead of putting him on first after 2-0. Get him back out there in high leverage this week.

I sure hope the Twins aren’t making decisions based on a tiny sample of a left on left split that isn’t consistent his larger overall major and minor league sample.. If The Twins are not confident in Buxton’s shoulder I think they need him on the roster. I would want Adrianza over Miller.

The home run and run scoring context of 2019 adds a little disequilibrium as I look to the performances of the starting pitchers. Martin Perez has a slightly better than league average FIP- at 99. That doesn’t match my perception of his performance. The other starters have a much better FIP- well above league average. League average starters and better are difficult to acquire. Without question I would make qualifying offers or pick up an option for that performance. I am just having great difficulty balancing the performance that my eyes see with the league normed data found on Fangraphs. Note: Perez has a FIP of 4.58 and an xFIP of 4.61 which is on the other side of league average.

I would make the qualifying offer to Odorizzi. I am not concerned about killing the bullpen. It didn’t happen this year. They used the AAA roster to successfully lengthen the bullpen. A 26th player in the roster next year will also help. I would also make the qualifying offer to Pineda.