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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Thorpe used 4 pitches when he arrived last year. His slider is a major league plus pitch. His four seamer will play with his slider. The change up is the concern. He used it almost exclusively against right handed batters and it was not effective. If he goes to the minors it would be for the express purpose of developing that change up to help keep right handed batters off balance. I hope that is something that can be accomplished this spring. If there is any glimmer of hope in that change up I would have in the rotation until Pineda returns.
  2. jorgenswest
    Martin Perez has a dominant cutter last year until he didn’t and couldn’t get it back. If Bailey struggles look to the effectiveness of his splitter. If effective give him some rope. If not cut ties.
  3. jorgenswest
    If we get to the trade deadline and Bailey is a better than league average pitcher as Perez did last year I will be pleased. Of course Perez was at an age where he was in the prime of his career so there may have been more reason for encouragement and too much patience with his two awful starts to begin August. Morrison was nowhere near a league average player nor was he 28. Perez was a poor pitcher after the trade deadline but articles about his fall came well into the second half. Andrew Thames wrote one for TD in August 11 and szymborski and Fangraphs had one August 12. The Twins might have pulled the plug August 12 but this was not the season long struggle of Morrison. I don’t see that comparison and I really hope we get league average pitching from Bailey that we saw from Perez through July.
  4. jorgenswest
    For most I think it is a preference to play in Arizona or Philadelphia or New York or Washington or Atlanta. They are all making more money than they will ever spend. It is clear to me they would focus on a place they want to move their family. I would. No player is going to say I didn’t want to play somewhere. Why would they? Of the pitchers I think the Twins could have won the Ryu deal. I don’t think he was particularly focused on Toronto or anywhere. His home isn’t here. They could have offered him 4/90 and committed a rotation spot and significant fraction of budget for the next four years. I think I would have made that offer. I do prefer Donaldson at a similar contract but I think he is waiting on Atlanta to add a fourth year and using Minnesota and Washington to get that deal. Even if Atlanta doesn’t step up I think he goes to Washington who will probably match anything Minnesota offers. I wouldn’t have wanted to wait on Donaldson and lose Ryu so I would have made Ryu the offer and gamble he will remain a playoff caliber pitcher the next four years,
  5. jorgenswest
    I think the bar will be set by the other 4 pitchers. If they are out pitching him I think they stay in the rotation.
  6. jorgenswest
    Cave will get better but we might not see it in numbers if they are a BABIP inflated. Moreland will decline. Moreland needs a platoon partner and has no positional flexibility. He is a part time 1B only. I would bet on the in house options that include Cave in spite of the BABIP. Your point is a good one though. Baseball Prospectus factors in things like BABIP and as a result Moreland’s DRC+ is better than Cave’s the last two years but not as good as a Cron over the two years. I think we agree that the in house options are preferable to Moreland and I join your concern about Cave’s BABIP.
  7. jorgenswest
    With the late adds of Pineda and then Hill there will be constant competition and early opportunity for the young pitchers. Bailey has 8 starts to show that he is a step above Thorpe, Dobnak, Graterol or Smeltzer? He is going to need to start strong. Last year Perez started strong. Even at the trade deadline his ERA was sitting above league average at 4.38. In his three starts between the all star break and trade deadline two of them were quality starts with a poor start against the Yankees but no one had a good start in the series. The wheels came off in his first two August starts. It would be a good signing if Bailey hits the trade deadline above league average. I am hoping that one of the young pitchers does even better and the bar is set higher to stay in the rotation.
  8. jorgenswest
    Are we sure Moreland is a better hitter than Jake Cave? They have almost identical OPS over the last two years with Cave the slight edge at .795. You might need to platoon with Cave but Moreland is already a platoon 1B. Why not put Cave in the line up until one of Larnach, Kirilloff or Rooker is ready? I would play Cave at 1B this spring but Kepler is an alternative there. Cave hasn’t played 1B but there is a lot of time in spring to give he and the three others time at 1B. They might go with a Cave/Rooker platoon and send Astudillo to AAA. Go big and sign Donaldson here or stay in house.
  9. jorgenswest
    I just find myself having a hard time caring whether they paid him 3 million or 9 million or 12 million or how it is distributed. This is what is took to get him to sign. Many teams overpay to get a free agent pitcher. I do care a lot about whether he will help. I think he will be really helpful if he pitches. I think the chance of him returning and staying healthy is small. I wish I could find one example of a pitcher doing this new UCL repair surgery and returning to his previous level in 6 months.
  10. jorgenswest
    Curious also. I also wonder how much the front office should factor in the incentives to the budget planning. Where does the budget sit after these two signings?
  11. jorgenswest
    I just added to the narrative of his second half. You saw the other games in the original comment. If I was going to look at a few games I would want to see how he did against the Yankees. Any Twins pitcher throw like that against the a Yankees last year? He had three starts against the Yankees. 17.1 innings, 23 strikeouts, 2 walks. 2.08 ERA. No one pitched better against the Yankees in 2019. Each of his three starts were better than any of the 9 Twins starts against the Yankees. What does it mean? I don’t know but my reply was to the narrative that his good second half numbers were the result of pitching well against bad teams. The Yankees are not a bad hitting team.
  12. jorgenswest
    First? Explains why I couldn’t find anyone. I hope it works.
  13. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I am curious about pitchers with a similar repair and their recovery, I didn’t find any but I need to search with repair.
  14. jorgenswest
    You might have included his two August starts against the Yankees with 17 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.1 innings or his September win against the Astros. Over the 3 starts he gave up 4 runs in 16.2 innings. The A’s were 2-1 losing one of the Yankee games in extra innings.
  15. jorgenswest
    i searched for other pitchers who have had primary revision surgery. I wasn’t successful at finding e apples of pitchers back in a half year. I really didn’t have success finding examples of pitchers with this surgery. I did run into several studies that weren’t helpful to me. Is the same surgery that Tallion and Josh Rogers had last season? Tallion is not expected back until 2021. The Twins won the deal and if he earns those incentives by pitching well he will earn the market rate for his play. I am less confident having searched that he will pitch effectively next year. Earlier I thought 25% but I would revise that down. I would still do this deal. It does not stop them from signing Donaldson or taking on a good portion of Price’s contract. It is a gamble on a pitcher that has been very good when pitching for several years.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Homer Bailey the second half of the season is playoff caliber and showed it in his late season starts against the Yankees and Astros. What is the likelihood he is that pitcher? Is it has high as 25% with the other split between league average, bad or injured? What is the likelihood Hill will be healthy in the playoffs? If healthy I think he is playoff caliber but I would give him a 25% likelihood that he will be healthy in the playoffs with at least that likelihood that he will not pitch at all during the season. The other hope right now is that at least one of Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Duran or Balazovic is a playoff caliber pitcher by the end of the year. The depth is there but no one is near that single impact pitcher to hang your hat on. Falvey earned this job with his reputation of finding and developing pitching. That ability needs to become reality in 2020.
  17. jorgenswest
    Need help here... I can find articles from fangraphs and Athletic referencing the effectiveness of Homer Bailey’s splitter. I can’t find the same for Parker in 2018. I will acknowledge it happens to be his best pitch as it is Bailey. Bailey is coming off a 2.9 WAR season that ended strong. Parker 0.1 in 2018 with a significant drop from 2017. I guess I may have hoped that the Twins could take Parker’s splutter and revitalized his career where Bailey took that step and needs to continue.
  18. jorgenswest
    I believe it is start of spring training but maybe that is what you meant be season.
  19. jorgenswest
    Reasons to hope on Homer... Homer Bailey was very good with the A’s in the second half. In two August starts against the Yankees he struck out 17 and walked 1. In those 11.1 innings he gave up 3 earned runs. He Pitched against Houston in September giving up 1 run. The A’s went 2-1 in those late season starts. Eno Sarris in the Athletic wrote about his splitter https://theathletic.com/1151891/2019/08/21/the-as-prove-their-formula-is-working-in-big-win-over-yankees/
  20. jorgenswest
    I think Price can help. His OPS against excluding the one plate appearance he face a pitcher was 757. Bumgarner’s excluding opponent pitchers was 764. Keuchel 811. The Red Sox have to help here. Like Ryu he is certainly an injury risk. In this market I think he gets a contract at least the level of Keuchel. As for his pitching the Twins need to believe that they can help him find that change up that was once elite. When elite he is elite. If they can get it back to a plus pitch they have a very good pitcher.
  21. jorgenswest
    If he were a free agent according to steamer projections he would slot in by WAR above Keuchel and Bumgarner and below Ryu. An AAV of 20 million would be in line with the crop of free agents and they wouldn’t have to go a 4th year. The Twins have urgency. They missed out on other free agents. They should be motivated here. It doesn’t even have to be a good deal. Pay too much salary year 1 just to get the deal done.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think it was reported on TD that he is in line for a 4th option. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/the-hazy-future-of-fernando-romero-r8320 I think you need to go down to comments and maybe another link.
  23. jorgenswest
    Good to have 5 guys that can be trusted in the 7th or later, I think Littell will step up and I am hoping on Romero’s upside at some point in the first half.
  24. jorgenswest
    Not out of line but not this discussion either. I appreciate the conversation of looking forward and have been avoiding the threads where we have an opportunity to voice our frustration and disgust with the front office. I would imagine others are so upset they don’t get this discussion and avoid it. From the current free agent group I think Walker and Hill in the second half have the best upside. That would be my plan B but a few have also pointed out how Wood might help and until reading this I hadn’t thought about him.
  25. jorgenswest
    Appreciate the article and effort. Back to the topic of major league talent they can trade. I think Arraez might be a sell high. He certainly has never had more value and likely more trade value than anyone in the initial list. Immediate replacement: Gonzalez, Adrianza, Gordon or pick up a SS and slide over Polanco. Potential suitors: Appreciate thoughts here. I haven’t done the research other than to look at Fangraphs 2B split and notice that the A’s, Cubs, Red Sox and Reds are in the bottom third. He is valuable to the Twins for the same reason he is a valuable trade chip. He has 6 years of control and is at the major league minimum. He has shown that he takes quality major league at bats. He might be the piece to get a good pitcher in return.
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