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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Alcantara career strike out major league rate is 18.7%. Nick Blackburn 10.9%. Alcantara at 23 started 32 games in the majors. Blackburn at 23 was in the minors (mostly hi A) with a 14% strike out rate. Alcantara's average major league fastball 95.7 vs Blackburn 90.6. Swing and miss rate 11.0% to 5.3%. It is Alcantara's age, stuff and the fact that he faced higher levels of competition at a young age that foreshadows upside in his future. Alcantara is a valuable asset and it will take a high level prospect. I don't think it takes both Larnach and Duran to win the deal. I think the Twins can get a good pitcher in return for Larnach whether it is an high upside guy with control like Alcantara or a guy for this year like Robbie Ray.
  2. jorgenswest
    Plouffe seems like a good comp. He was a valuable player for 4 years posting DRC+ numbers of 107, 102, 111, 107. He was below average with the glove at the start of those 4 years but became an average or better 3B. Rosario has similar DRC+ numbers. He is a valuable player and I expect he will be this season again. Like Plouffe he has little space to decline given his arb status.
  3. jorgenswest
    Questions that come to mind... Will he be able to really work on his change up as a reliever in the majors? Will he get consistent work? What went wrong with the Romero shift to the pen? Anything to learn there? Who are we developing for the 2021 rotation? Will his limited innings be more valuable in relief than starting? I might have more confidence had Romero been a success.
  4. jorgenswest
    My favorite Astudillo moment last year was his pinch hit against Boston. My take here is probably better than going by my memory. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-11646-baldelli-and-line-ups-which-twin-has-faced-the-best-pitching/ I don’t know how much Astudillo helps but if you have runners in scoring position and need a ball in play against an extreme strike out pitcher he might not be a bad option.
  5. jorgenswest
    Have the Twins signed a proportionally greater number of free agents also? Why 34? Why not 36 or 32? Would it look the same?
  6. jorgenswest
    Free agents are old. If they are high caliber you are either signing them old or giving them a contract well into their 30s. Want a younger team less expensive team? Don’t sign free agents.
  7. jorgenswest
    Poor defense has side effects that are not seen in the individual runs saved calculations. More balls in play leads to longer more stressful innings, shorter starts and a greater burden on the pen. Poorer pitching results. As a team the Twins turned 69% of balls in play into outs ranking 25th. The Astros and Dodgers were at 73% followed by the A’s, Marlins and Cardinals. The Twins were in the depths with the Royals, Red Sox and Rangers and slightly better than the a Pirates and Tigers. They need to do better this year.
  8. jorgenswest
    It is possible they have simply taken a different road and spent their budget with Donaldson. They may not be on the road to pitching any longer. The realistic options may have been Ryu, Donaldson or hold onto the money in hopes of making a deal later. They may not be kicking the can any longer.
  9. jorgenswest
    Would you have pursued Ryu over Donaldson and addressed pitching with free agency this winter?
  10. jorgenswest
    Hill is the midseason acquisition and if he returns and pitches they are around 150 million. If he doesn’t return I think they try to add a pitcher with those dollars. They had an opportunity to add pitching by giving Ryu the Donaldson money and then they could have added a bat at 1B for the Hill or Bailey commitment. They went with Donaldson and I think I agree. Short of trading significant prospect capital for a young pitcher on smaller salary I think they have chosen to wait.
  11. jorgenswest
    You might want to watch his 2 August starts against the Yankees or his September start against the Astros. Can you find a starter that was more effective against the Yankees last year? I am certain no one wearing a Twin uniform was more effective or even close to as effective.
  12. jorgenswest
    No. They do not need to add pitching. If they do it has to be at the top and pushing Bailey to the pen. They need to develop pitching and at some point that means devoting major league starts to promising pitchers who have shown sustained success at the upper levels of minors. Thorpe needs the opportunity. Graterol needs a spot if he has a good start at AAA. Smeltzer and Dobnak both have a chance to take another step this year. I hope that group combines for at least 40 starts. The Twins needs one to emerge. They can’t emerge or grow if they are in the pen or on the shuttle. No they don’t need to add more though I do acknowledge every team would say yes they need to add a front starter. If that is the bar there is nothing to discuss.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins are a lot better off with Donaldson in the their clubhouse than the visitor’s clubhouse. One excerpt from Rosenthal and the Athletic with a quote from Freeman. In an early Donaldson thread I posted links to other articles about Donaldson and the clubhouse. They are similar. I would want this guy in my clubhouse.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think they could have addressed pitching by offering Ryu this contract. When the top four signed with their preferred destinations the Twins chose pursuing Donaldson over Ryu. I can’t argue with the decision though I may have in some thread earlier. I was certain Donaldson would go to Atlanta and the Twins would be left with nothing. Ryu seemed the one sure player who would sign for the best offer. Good work front office. They read the Braves and Nationals correctly and must have stood close to their original offer.
  15. jorgenswest
    The risk of injury goes both ways. He would have more motivation to make a deal now than he would one year away from free agency. Signing any pitcher long term carries a risk of injury. I would bet on Berrios because of his age and his work ethic. He keeps himself in great physical condition. When he gets that injury I am confident that he give every effort to getting back on the field and get there quicker. I would pay the starting pitcher premium to lock up two more years of control. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. Pay up.
  16. jorgenswest
    Of course they are able to sign a Berrios to an extension. There exists a number that will win the deal. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. Are they willing to pay up?
  17. jorgenswest
    Do you worry about Berrios’ attitude in particular or the attitude of any young player in general as it relates to getting an extension? It seems to me that a Berrios takes great pride in his performance and his conditioning and preparation seem to show it. I am not concerned that an extension would foster an attitude where he would be less motivate to be a top pitcher. The risk in a Berrios extension is the same in signing any pitcher to a long term deal. Injury. Even in the case of injury I think his work habits and conditioning will give him a better chance of a full and quicker recovery.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins did fail to sign him and they could have signed him. Is that where we disagree? Whether they should have signed him is a different conversation. It was not the lack of Asian community that kept Ryu from signing with the Twins. It was dollars. Your point about his value is well taken and I think we agree but it is irrelevant to whether or not he would have come to Minnesota.
  19. jorgenswest
    I buy everything here but Ryu. The top 4 had a specific team they targeted. Not Ryu. From the Toronto Sun the day of signing. “Ryu maintains that the strong Korean community in Toronto didn’t influence his decision to come here — money and the promising young team talked loudest.” If the money were the same I think Ryu selects Toronto. Later in the article they wrote about how excited he is about the Korean community in Toronto. It was on the Twins to talk loud on the money. I don’t know about the off season but I think it is fair to say the Twins failed to sign Ryu with an emphasis on fail.
  20. jorgenswest
    My read into the gap is that they are working on an extension all along and not discussing an agreeable one year number. If it comes down to one year I think the Twins are low and the arbiter will decide with Berrios. I look for the Twins to pay up on an extension. Keep focused on the extension.
  21. jorgenswest
    If the goal is to move the needle on infield defense that isn’t going to happen without addressing the middle infield. Adding a 3B closes the door of moving Polanco or Arraez to 3B where below average defense isn’t as exposed. It closes the door on seeing if Lewis can be a solution.
  22. jorgenswest
    Pay up and buy two years of free agency from Berrios. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. There is a contract the will win this deal and the Twins have the resources to make it happen.
  23. jorgenswest
    Berrios is the most critical to get an extension. He has to be number 1. No loss would hurt the Twins more this year and probably the next two. Why not double his projected pay the next two years and then give him market rate for three more? Doesn’t Berrios take that deal? It is so much more guaranteed money in the next three years and every arm is fragile looking that far out. I really would like them to aggressively get extensions on Berrios, Sano and Buxton. With those extensions they join Kepler and Polanco as a core of valuable assets, It can be done. Every deal doesn’t have to be a team friendly deal. Pay up with a big boost this year to entice them. They aren’t spending the money anywhere else.
  24. jorgenswest
    Demand? I am not that emotionally attached. I will follow the team and baseball whether they add pitching or not. I think the Twins are going to need to do something rare to acquire starting pitching, Given the alternatives I suggest the Twins be willing to give up from their best hitting prospects in order to find that pitching. Is there any other way right now? Not a demand though. I will be following the same either way.
  25. jorgenswest
    Reading through this thread I think you are suggesting the Twins should not aggressively pursue starting in pitching in trade. By aggressive I mean pursue an available pitcher they feel can help and then beat the offers of other teams in a deal that would likely be seen as an overpay. I don’t see anyone in free agency that will help. It needs to b a trade but maybe Archer isn’t playoff caliber. How about Ray or any pitcher you might prefer more that has been seen as available? What far would you go to get Ray or other identified pitcher? I am suggesting the Twins overpay starting from their strength in outfield prospects in order to win a deal for a playoff caliber starting pitcher.
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