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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t doubt that but how far will it regress. He is also early in his career and it is reasonable that he will improve his hitting skill. I also am not ready to buy that it doesn’t matter what is driving his BABIP. If Cave has the skill of creating higher quality contact than normal his BABIP will be higher. In his case it is not simply a case where his balls in play have simply evaded the fielders due to luck of placement. They are missing fielders because the harder contact gives them less time to get to the ball. Is that hard contact a skill? I think he is a good fourth OF. I wouldn’t give him away this winter.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think there is enough here to believe he is a good fourth OF option. I don’t know enough behind the math of BABIP and quality of contact. I have seen that the BABIP on hard contact last year was .448 vs. .158 on soft contact. I know that Cave has had hard contact 53.8% (2018 league 35.3%) and soft contact 3.8% (league average 18.1%) I don’t know what it means. Clearly lots more hard contact and lots less soft contact is going to drive a BABIP way up. His high BABIP is explained by the quality of his contact (not luck). So... Is quality of contact luck or a skill? If it is a skill how much data is needed to be meaningful? Who wants to take a chance it is luck and let Cave move to another team this winter?
  3. jorgenswest
    DRS correlates similarly season to season to slash stats and better than ERA. In a season sample I would trust them similarly and not be surprised by outliers like Danny Santana or Allan Anderson. My trust in all three as a predictor of future performance is low for a single season where the player is performing very differently from his norm.
  4. jorgenswest
    Looking at the varied measures I think it is fair to say that Robbie has had a good season defensively thus far. Like many pitching and hitting stats those numbers tell a reasonably good story of a time frame but are not a good tool to predict future defensive performance. I wouldn’t want the Twins to make decisions based on a single season’s slash stats or ERA. I wouldn’t want them to make decisions a single seasons defensive metric either. I wouldn’t imagine that the A’s are using Grossman as a defensive replacement. His metrics and play for the Twins his first year were awful. He is not that bad. He isn’t this good either. Below average but not bad outfielder with skill to get on base.
  5. jorgenswest
    Should Berrios get his next start? Is Cave and his bat against right handed pitching worth a spot on a playoff roster with everyone healthy?
  6. jorgenswest
    Brandon Warne wrote about Duffey in March or April. Tunneling. Warne offered us a reason to believe. I bought in. The Twins must have had some belief in him as several others were removed from the roster last winter while he stayed.
  7. jorgenswest
    The run expectancy with full bases and 1 out is 1.52. Duffey came in and put out the fire again.
  8. jorgenswest
    That game was a little different because the starter did not go 5 and treated differently in the rule book. It is similar because Duffey was the pitcher of record when the Twins took the lead. He came in and put out the fire at a critical moment in the game. Thorpe was awarded the win though Duffey in that game had a much better WPA. Duffey also does not get credit for a hold for either game though he left with the Twins leading and the lead was never relinquished. He was effective and did his job both times. If your effective and leave with the lead you deserve the win.
  9. jorgenswest
    Cave might be the best answer in a platoon but he failed in the small sample of opportunity this year. On the other hand he crushed AAA pitching and had an .844 OPS against right handed pitching last year.
  10. jorgenswest
    Second time Duffey came in and did his job without getting the win.
  11. jorgenswest
    Overall starting pitchers have their highest ERA in the first inning. There is bias in the sample. The group of batters they will have faced in the first inning are better than the group they will have faced in any other inning. They are guaranteed to see the best hitters of the opposing team. That same bias can be found when looking data in the number of times a pitcher faces a batter. The third time through will be worse for pitchers overall. A big factor is that same bias due to sample. Most pitchers will hit their pitch count somewhere around 22-24 batters. The group of batters in that third time through is heavily biased toward the top of the line up and the opposing team’s best hitters.
  12. jorgenswest
    I sorted him with relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. In that group of over 200 pitchers he is 50th in ERA. That gives you an idea of how he has performed but not a reliable projector. At the sample better indicators include his SIERA, XFIP and K%-BB% which rank in the 30s (32-39). All solid rankings in a group of 200. He belongs as a middle reliever on a playoff team.
  13. jorgenswest
    They need Polanco at shortstop. Arraez really only fits as a regular at 2B. The pair will be below average at their positions but can make it up at the plate. The Twins also need to be elite at positioning their infielders to make up for the individual defensive weaknesses.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Arraez has the arm to play anywhere regularly other than 2B. If defense is a priority they need Polanco to step up at SS or trade one of them. A good and athletic 1B would help but I am not sure Rooker or Sano fit that description. They might just have to counter some extra errors with good bats up the middle.
  15. jorgenswest
    Given the soft contact and xba there was a little bad luck also. Instead of lamenting some soft contact hits Odorizzi battled.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think Arraez claimed a while ago a spot in the line up against right handed starters.
  17. jorgenswest
    Odorizzi gave up 1 run across 11 2/3 innings against two very good teams. Every other starter pitched poorly this week. Let’s hope Berrios turns it around today but I am least worried about starting Odorizzi against a good team. He just won’t give in and throw a fat pitch even when behind in the count. The Twins need a better bullpen behind him but that is on the front office.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Indians have a better starting rotation. They have a better bullpen. Their best position players are better and more experienced in a pennant race than the Twins best position players. The Indians made bold moves at the trade deadline. It should be a good battle to the end.
  19. jorgenswest
    Hopefully they don’t compound the problem by taking him to arbitration and then dealing with his decline and likely injuries next year. They need to seek a better solution and I fear they won’t if they go the arbitration with him.
  20. jorgenswest
    I value Schoop’s performance against left handed pitching and his strong arm at 2B. I am platooning Arraez and Schoop at 2B.
  21. jorgenswest
    I would think Cave is on the roster until they need a 13th pitcher. I don’t think they are sending down Arraez. Who else would they send out or DFA? I don’t want to add a guy to the 40 when they are two short starts or extra inning games away from needing another pitcher.
  22. jorgenswest
    In order to be helpful as a number 5 starter Smeltzer helps by taking care of the bad teams, keeping his pitch count down so he saves the bullpen against those elite offenses and gives a different look than most of their starters. I don’t know how the rotation falls out for next year and we ought to have a thread for that topic but I would be comfortable with the fifth spot going to someone moving up from the minors and Smeltzer is at the top of my list right now.
  23. jorgenswest
    Duensing was 26 when he arrived so there was a lot less time to improve as a major leaguer. I also don’t think using ERA or its estimators which require a very large sample is helpful in comparing. If Duensing is his floor though it is a good return for a Dozier rental.
  24. jorgenswest
    Next up for Smeltzer is the Indians. A quality start should earn him several more.
  25. jorgenswest
    Neither Romo or Dyson were what I ultimately hoped to acquire but they were the best relievers that moved at the deadline. As far as trusting late they need more than 3 or they will overwork those 3. Duffey needs to join that group and right now he needs to be ahead of Dyson.
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