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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If discount means expect fewer innings per start, lower overall strikeout rate and higher overall walk rates then yes every AL team should factor in this discount. He had a 56-1 strike out to walk ratio facing pitchers the last two years. There has to be a discount. A discount is different from a dismiss. I don’t dismiss a pitcher because he is an NL pitcher. The Twins need to sign him. They need another pitcher of the caliber of Berrios and Odorizzi. Wheeler is that caliber.
  2. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins sign Wheeler. He is a playoff caliber starting pitcher. I am not convinced he is better than Odorizzi (also a playoff caliber starting pitcher in my opinion). He is moving from a NL pitcher friendly park to Minnesota. It will have an impact on his overall numbers. Here is some data that I am sure some will disregard. The last two seasons pitchers have come to the plate against him 106 times. He has turned 98 of those plate appearances into outs giving up 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 56. In the AL he will face a DH instead. Those additional PAs are going to eat into his innings per start and increase his number of high pitch count innings. In his 5 AL park starts over the last two years he has thrown 28 innings in 5 starts. Those starts were against New York, Kansas City, Chicago, Toronto and Baltimore. The Yankees are awesome but don’t you think he should have been more dominant against the other 4? The White Sox are the only team where he pitched 7 innings. I want Wheeler but I have no expectation that his numbers will be close to his CitiPark numbers. Unless baseball takes some of the life out of the baseball I think we should expect somewhere near 6 innings per start while strikeout and walk rates merge closer together when he isn’t feasting off opposing pitchers. It is very likely that someone will pay a heavy premium for AL performance that isn’t much different than Odorizzi’s. I am kind of hoping that team is the Twins.
  3. jorgenswest
    An automated strike zone may be further away from the majors than we think. Baseball Prospectus wrote about all of the hurdles before it can be a useful tool. One of the hurdles that had me most concerned is setting the top and bottom of the strike zone. Every plate appearance has a unique top and bottom of the strike zone depending on the height and stance of a batter. Right now two methods have been employed to determine the top and bottom of the zone. “ PITCHf/x originally used poorly paid “stringers” to sit in a dark room under the stands and manually turn a dial to set the top and bottom of the zone on the video image of the batter. Saunders reports that Statcast uses the previous calls of major league umpires to build a database of the top and bottom of the strike zone for each hitter.” The automated zone is a result of the previous calls from human umpires. What happens after a few years and the data of previous calls isn’t available for many batters? Do we go back to humans setting it before each pitch? https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/ I have doubts that Garver will see the automated zone in his career. The Twins would be wise to continue teaching and seeking this skill.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think the most important skill will be calling a game. Catchers are in a unique position to see what pitches are effective and see better how a batter is responding to a pitch. They need the ability and skill to earn trust from a pitcher so they have confidence in the pitch they are throwing. They need to put in hours of study before each series watching video and learning the trends of hitters. Some will be able to utilize that data much better than others. This skill is more important than framing. Teams that do the best job of assessing this difficult skill to measure will add to their win total.
  5. jorgenswest
    Your comment had me wondering about playing time calculations and whether they had meaning or changed. I did some searching and reading on fangraphs and shared. I apologize for quoting your post. I think too often a quote is taken as meaning a different point of view. I should have written without the quote. It would be crazy not to want Garver to play more.
  6. jorgenswest
    I am not sure that steamer is projecting playing time at this point beyond calculating from previous seasons. There will always be a bunch of young players with 1 PA or very few PAs where any value comes from the rate stats. Fangraphs will do custom playing time estimates much closer to opening day.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do you think the Twins can get much more from shifting? Maybe. That will help. If the Twins had turned balls in play into outs at an average rate it would have been 50 fewer balls in play. If they had a top quarter rate it would have been 80 fewer balls in play. If they were elite and turned balls into play into outs like Houston it would have been 150 fewer balls in play. The numbers don’t quite work because more outs result in fewer opportunities to make other outs. Fewer balls in play also will lengthen starts and ease the burden on the bullpen. Rested pitchers will perform better. Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher. It still has to help when you go from a defense in Pittsburgh that was one of the poorest in baseball at turning balls in play into outs to one of the best in Houston.
  8. jorgenswest
    The top two teams in defensive efficiency last year were the Astros and Dodgers. The Yankees were 16th but were very good in the playoffs with their roster finally healthy. The Twins ranked 25th. I think defensive efficiency has a solid correlation with wins. It was the Twins weakest facet of their game. The Twins pitchers fared very well in spite of the defense. Defenses that allow more balls to be put in play increases pitch counts and shortens starts adding a cumulative burden to a pitching staff. It has a significant impact on winning games and is particularly critical matching up against good teams. I think the Twins can win the central with a bad defense. I don’t think they will go far in the playoffs unless they can get close to average defensively.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think Hackimer has a better chance of being successful in the majors next year than Jax. AA batters put way too many balls in play against Jax. I can see the control in the stats. Jax throws strikes. Command is different than control. It is ability to execute and locate pitches. It is about being in charge of the strike zone. I don’t think we can see it in a stat line. A pitcher with good command is going to keep a hitter off balance. In AA that should look like swing and misses that will hopefully turn into weak contact from major leaguers. The swings and misses aren’t there yet. It might take a new or improved pitch to keep the hitters off balance. It could happen with more time to develop. Jax just doesn’t have very much minor league experience.
  10. jorgenswest
    A contending team can’t give a 40 man roster spot to a player who reasonably won’t be ready to help in the majors the next two seasons. Javier may get picked but it will reduce the odds that he will ever be successful in the majors. He needs to play after missing 2018 and really struggling in low A. If 2020 is lost to a bench role he will need at least the next two years in the minors. After that it 2023 and he will be 24 and almost out of options. If Rijo had more swing and miss he would have more strikeouts and more walks in low A. Those higher walk rates at the lower levels can be troubling but also a sign that the batters are struggling to put the ball in play and the counts are going deeper. I think Rijo needs two more year before he is ready to be tested at the major league level. I don’t think the Twins would have been wise to start the options clock on him. A contending team can’t afford to keep Javier, Rijo and Celestino on the 40 man roster. The Twins made a space for one guy who won’t reasonably help next year. I think the picked the right one.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t think the goal should be to move Sano. I think the goal should be to add a good corner bat. The better corner infield bats belong to Donaldson and Moustakis. They happen to play 3B. If they can’t sign either of those two keep Sano at 3B. Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff are just too close to add one of the above on a two year commitment. It needs to be a commitment they are comfortable releasing if their play declines to mediocre. Keep Cron and his one year tender or go with the young guys from opening day.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t need a qualifier to trade Sano for a stud pitcher or two close pitchers. Trade him and play Gonzalez or Adrianza there if you must. Get that pitching. I don’t think Sano can bring that stud pitcher though. I like the research baseball trade values has done to calculate their value. In Sano’s case the Twin pitcher nearest and just above him is Tyler Duffey. Sano has much more adjusted field value but his projected salary and one less year of service time significantly reduces his trade value. Rosario is similar. The Twins shouldn’t hesitate at good pitching for Sano. Someone would offer more than a Duffey but they really need a lot more or they are better keeping him for this two year window.
  13. jorgenswest
    Will Smith looks to be two years ahead of Jeffers. He spent 2018 in AA and AAA. Jeffers on a similar path would be here for good around trade deadline 2021.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think the depth is too thin. I think Telis’ numbers are heavily skewed up having played several years at the AAA level. I don’t think he will hit and I have to assume his defense is below average. He might be better than Graterol though. If Garver goes down early they will be looking for the 2020 version of Bobby Wilson. If Astudillo can’t cut it defensively when given that chance the 2020 Wilson will be starting 3-4 games a week. I would rather they sign an upgrade over a Wilson this winter and begin Astudillo in AAA catching every day. The Twins have a surplus of outfield depth and even middle infield depth in Gordon on options. They have no catching depth and it really wouldn’t be that expensive to buy it. Maldonado cost the Royals 2.5 million.
  15. jorgenswest
    If everyone is hitting fewer home runs will contact skills and plate discipline skills become more valuable?
  16. jorgenswest
    Reposting here some source material describing Donaldson in the locker room. From 2015 new to the Jays. https://www.theglobe...rticle25414792/ There are a few paragraphs here about Donaldson in the locker room https://torontolife....sident-hothead/ I think I would want this guy in my locker room. Then again leaving the Jays... https://bluejaysnati...jays-clubhouse/ On the other hand from the Braves... https://lastwordonba...josh-donaldson/
  17. jorgenswest
    This article uses the word prickly but ends by taking about how great he is in the club house. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/how-a-troubled-kid-rose-through-baseball-to-become-the-peoples-all-star/article25414792/ There are a few paragraphs here about Donaldson in the locker room https://torontolife.com/city/life/home-josh-donaldson-blue-jays-resident-hothead/ I think I would want this guy in my locker room. Then again... https://bluejaysnation.com/2019/04/22/pompey-bullied-in-blue-jays-clubhouse/ And from the Braves... https://lastwordonbaseball.com/2019/11/13/top-three-potential-landing-spots-for-josh-donaldson/
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins need one of the four to be a long time starter and need to trade one for pitching. My guess is Kirilloff has that career of a long term regular. I think Larnach is the one that I would trade. His value is at a relative high.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think they traded two months of Escobar control. Pressly is the one that hurt. It would have great to have his last year of control in 2019. Maybe they don’t have a need for Dyson and they retain those prospects. The Twins didn’t have control of either for 2020.
  20. jorgenswest
    Their infield defense was below average and Anderson struggles but Sanchez is above average at 2B and Moncada will get better at 3B with experience. I would think their defense at catcher and infield is better than the Twins.
  21. jorgenswest
    Early in the season Perez was hitting 97. I wonder if his 97 then was effective or made other pitches more effective. I wonder if his velocity declined as the season progressed. I wonder if the relief workload would enable him to maintain the velocity in one inning outings. That is too many wonders for a 100 win team short of signing him to a minor league deal.
  22. jorgenswest
    Could it be top 5 2B?
  23. jorgenswest
    One more from baseball trade values... Larnach straight up for Alcantara. With Kirilloff and Larnach this might be the winter to trade one of those corner pieces for a controllable starting pitcher. Kirilloff would bring a better pitcher if one is available.
  24. jorgenswest
    This trade intrigued me. I think it is going to take Balazovic to headline the deal. I don’t know how reliable the trade simulator is at Baseball Trade Vaues but it took a package of Balazovic, Rooker and Severino to get the deal done. It could be that the Marlins value Javier much higher than Baseball Trade Values.
  25. jorgenswest
    Rosario is valuable. He can’t be adequately replaced by Cave or Wade. Sadly he doesn’t have excess value beyond his likely contract figure to give him some trade value. I order for a veteran to have trade value they either need to be on a friendly contract or be at a level of play the us in short supply. At this point Rosario doesn’t fit either group. If a team needs a corner OF they can get Garcia or Dickerson over the next two years without giving up any prospect. Eddie is a valuable LF solution until one of the corner prospects is ready. He just isn’t very valuable as a trade chip.
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