jorgenswest
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Everything posted by jorgenswest
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The Twins did fail to sign him and they could have signed him. Is that where we disagree? Whether they should have signed him is a different conversation. It was not the lack of Asian community that kept Ryu from signing with the Twins. It was dollars. Your point about his value is well taken and I think we agree but it is irrelevant to whether or not he would have come to Minnesota.
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I buy everything here but Ryu. The top 4 had a specific team they targeted. Not Ryu. From the Toronto Sun the day of signing. “Ryu maintains that the strong Korean community in Toronto didn’t influence his decision to come here — money and the promising young team talked loudest.” If the money were the same I think Ryu selects Toronto. Later in the article they wrote about how excited he is about the Korean community in Toronto. It was on the Twins to talk loud on the money. I don’t know about the off season but I think it is fair to say the Twins failed to sign Ryu with an emphasis on fail.
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My read into the gap is that they are working on an extension all along and not discussing an agreeable one year number. If it comes down to one year I think the Twins are low and the arbiter will decide with Berrios. I look for the Twins to pay up on an extension. Keep focused on the extension.
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If the goal is to move the needle on infield defense that isn’t going to happen without addressing the middle infield. Adding a 3B closes the door of moving Polanco or Arraez to 3B where below average defense isn’t as exposed. It closes the door on seeing if Lewis can be a solution.
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Front Page: Twins and 2020 Arbitration
jorgenswest replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pay up and buy two years of free agency from Berrios. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. There is a contract the will win this deal and the Twins have the resources to make it happen.- 80 replies
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- jose berrios
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Berrios is the most critical to get an extension. He has to be number 1. No loss would hurt the Twins more this year and probably the next two. Why not double his projected pay the next two years and then give him market rate for three more? Doesn’t Berrios take that deal? It is so much more guaranteed money in the next three years and every arm is fragile looking that far out. I really would like them to aggressively get extensions on Berrios, Sano and Buxton. With those extensions they join Kepler and Polanco as a core of valuable assets, It can be done. Every deal doesn’t have to be a team friendly deal. Pay up with a big boost this year to entice them. They aren’t spending the money anywhere else.
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Demand? I am not that emotionally attached. I will follow the team and baseball whether they add pitching or not. I think the Twins are going to need to do something rare to acquire starting pitching, Given the alternatives I suggest the Twins be willing to give up from their best hitting prospects in order to find that pitching. Is there any other way right now? Not a demand though. I will be following the same either way.
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Reading through this thread I think you are suggesting the Twins should not aggressively pursue starting in pitching in trade. By aggressive I mean pursue an available pitcher they feel can help and then beat the offers of other teams in a deal that would likely be seen as an overpay. I don’t see anyone in free agency that will help. It needs to b a trade but maybe Archer isn’t playoff caliber. How about Ray or any pitcher you might prefer more that has been seen as available? What far would you go to get Ray or other identified pitcher? I am suggesting the Twins overpay starting from their strength in outfield prospects in order to win a deal for a playoff caliber starting pitcher.
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Trading Larnach for Archer is probably a deal you lose on. You probably also lose on giving Ryu a four year deal. Those losses are relative though. The Twins have the salary space to absorb that loss. They also have the prospect capital at the corner OF spot to absorb that loss. Find a trade partner looking for that bat first prospect and get the best starter you can. If it takes Larnach for Archer. Do it. Even if it feels like it is too much. With that trade there is high likelihood that the 2020 team wins more games. I would go after Ray first and then offer him an extension he can’t refuse boosting his salary this year and locking in three more.
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Nick- Always fun I know that trade asset is different from the definition of asset in your post but I was interested what the computer algorithms at baseball trade values placed the top 20 Twin trade assets. Numbers 20-16 ranked by median trade value. 20: Astudillo (8.0) - Already shakes my faith in the valuation system. Willians position, options, control and contract all give him trade value. 19: Sano (8.1) - two years of control, inconsistency and arb status hurt his trade value 18: Duffey (8.3) - a year ago I didn’t perceive any value. Thanks to Wes Johnson and tunneling he has become an asset. 17: Matt Wallner (8.3) - power hitting corner prospect drafted 35th overall in 2019. The next wave behind Kirilloff and company. I don’t buy the values put on players who haven’t played AA yet but encouraging to see the depth here. 16: Misael Urbina (8.3)- 17 year old centerfield prospect with good speed, walks and few strike outs. A long way away but encouraging to see.
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Thanks. He really is a great story. I think he gets a shot at those early starts with Pineda and Hill out and makes it hard for the Twins to take him out of the rotation when they return. Keeping hitters off balance and sequencing are key for him. He is going to throw his off speed and breaking stuff more than half the time. They have got to get that mix right.
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Ryu is the one top pitcher that the Twins could have signed and they failed to recognize it early enough. Had they gone after him first they might have signed him at better than 4/80 but even late they could have gone 4/90 and signed him. I get the arguments that It would be a mistake to sign Ryu to 4/90. I don’t buy the arguments that no one would come to Minnesota. The Twins need to do a better job of identifying that player early before they are they have the leverage of the last remaining option in free agency.
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- minnesota twins
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If they want to move the needle with infield defense it has to come at SS or 2B. Sano is below average at 3B but the volume of plays at 3B is much less than up the middle.
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I want those probabilities of success high enough that it is going to take a top prospect. Who is the best pitcher we can get for Larnach or Kirilloff? Can we do better than Archer? Can we get Ray? Is his one year better than Archer’s two? I am not looking to win the deal. I am just looking to get the best pitcher and if the best pitcher I can get is Archer I would pay up.
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I agree. I also think the cost for any pitcher worthy of the rotation is going to be way too much. If Archer has the ability to help the rotation and start a playoff game then the cost of Larnach is a small one. If Archer isn’t enough to help in the playoffs then I don’t want him at any cost.
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Are we ready to deal for Archer if we have to give up Larnach?
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Yes. Ryu would have taken the Donaldson money 4/90. The others have compelling arguments that they had a particular team they were focused on but not Ryu. He could have been a Twin. Even if the Twins thought Donaldson was a better way to spend this money they should have known that he was using them to drive up Atlanta's offer.
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Garver and Arraez are both very patient seeing over 4 pitches per plate appearance. I would use both of them depending on the starting pitcher.
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Feels like a fair trade but I think the Tigers could get quite a bit more. Trading for starting pitching is going to hurt. This one doesn't hurt too much.
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Gonsalves was a 50 prospect after 2017 and entered his first full AAA season in 2018. He walked 55 in 100 innings that year. Like many prospects he rating dropped as he hit the upper levels He was injured all of 2019. This 2017 AA numbers are pretty far back in the rear view mirror in order to commit a 40 man spot. Thorpe, on the other hand, was a 40 prospect the three years before that improved to 45 with his first full season in AAA. That trend is encouraging.
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I really respect Seth's knowledge and here is his take... I would trade from pitching from their strength in outfield prospects in Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Lewis.
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They do look similar by the numbers but Gonsalves is 89-90 with the fastball and didn’t generate swings and misses in his short stay. I don’t know the AAA numbers but it is hard to imagine they were anywhere near Thorpe’s swing and miss rate, I think Gonsalves would have been the first one up last year had he remained healthy and lost his best shot at an opportunity.
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If they do make a trade it is going to be too much. That is the premium cost for starting pitching. Expect it. The deal is not going to feel fair. Larnach is a sell high candidate that can be the main piece of a deal for Ray or Alcantara or several of the others. He is valuable to most teams because he looks ready to arrive this season. Rosario is most valuable to a contending team with a need in left field. He is more valuable to the Twins than most of these trade partners.
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I think you are spot on with what it would take to get an established pitcher. The Twins might lose all of these deals but starting pitching is a premium and if you don’t develop it you need to pay up in players or dollars.
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Yes. It will impact the roster and the need for an extra pitcher. I think it will help the development where longer stays in AAA will allow them to work on the pitches that will help them be successful. In Thorpe's case he needs a better change up to keep right handed hitters off balance.
