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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Hmmm… maybe I better look at it on a computer. I don’t see much useful screen content on the iPad after selecting a forum. No need to reply. Just giving visual feedback on the initial user experience.
  2. jorgenswest
    Is Stashak healthy? Seems like his velocity is down and he probably doesn't have much margin for error. Was he sent down the first time due to ineffectiveness? He doesn't look the same.
  3. jorgenswest
    Is he a more expensive Wisler replacement?
  4. jorgenswest
    I think they will need to cut payroll. Rosario doesn’t have value beyond his contract. He hasn’t had that excess value. Why trade when similar players will be free agents and likely less expensive? I am not sure about Rogers either. I think many teams will be cutting payroll. It might be better to add that money to any spent on starting pitching. Jeffers, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis and maybe even Gordon will all be needed to step up. I think they can also find an inexpensive utility player in free agency. The same goes for the young arms in the pen.
  5. jorgenswest
    Wade over Rooker at 1B? Wade has never played 1B in the minors and has one start there in the majors. I wonder if Rooker has a major league position other than DH.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think you missed pointing out how the data for the third time through is very skewed towards the top of the line up. A pitcher rarely sees the bottom of the line up a third time so the vast majority of the data from the third time through is skewed significantly toward the best hitters. A better look would be to see how batters fare against a pitcher their third time they see him. Given the data you outline above you would expect a majority of hitters to have their best at bats the third time they see a pitcher. If the data is similar to looks two and three years back I am guessing that it won’t be near as striking. I think it was around 37-38% of batters fared better the third time through which is more than 1/3 but not much more.
  7. jorgenswest
    The encouraging statcast news is three hard hit balls averaging 104.6 MPH from a sorely needed right handed bat. The concerning statcast news is his outs above average of -2 after 13 innings is the same as Sano’s in 313 innings of RF play.. He missed or did not attempt on balls that had a 50%(dive), 55%(no attempt) and 85%(no attempt) catch probability. Additionally the marvelous Donaldson catch was one that the left fielder should have made the play in the first game. He certainly must be a better fielder than he showed yesterday. The Twins would not have kept him in the outfield. I will assume first day jitters had an impact on his reaction time and he will be better.
  8. jorgenswest
    I do agree with the part about strengthen the organization. At this point a trade for a starter might get them 5 starts or a reliever might get them 10 or so innings. The playoffs are expanded making it even more difficult to get to the World Series. I would not trade a good prospect without getting a player who really impacts 2021 also.
  9. jorgenswest
    I would like to think that Rosario is a valuable trade asset but he just doesn’t have excess value beyond his contract with a boost coming next year in arbitration. He is likely more valuable this year than next. He could be a candidate for a deal to a contender similar to Lawton for Reed but those trade partners are hard to find.
  10. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins make this move if they think Donaldson will be back in any reasonable time frame?
  11. jorgenswest
    I am with Chief here. They needed bullpen help last year and should have had Pressly for the year. Maybe with Pressly they get home field advantage and never see the Yankees in the playoffs. The Twins should have had the foresight in 2018 to see the bullpen need and see that the team was ready to contend for 2019.
  12. jorgenswest
    I need to hit you with the 10 games because data in a sample too small should not be used to make decisions about the future. it doesn’t matter that the season is shorter. The length of the season doesn’t change the size needed for a reliable sample. One piece does stand out to me is the xBA. His xBA IN 2019 was .292 and is .271 for 2020. Does that seem like a drastic change? Were his numbers last year skewed by a much higher than expected BABIP with this year the reverse is happening? Will he return to form? I don’t think it is certain that he ever abandoned his form. He puts a lot of balls in play and his results are always going to be BABIP driven and subject to significant variance due to sample.
  13. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the post. It does have me thinking about it. I think there are two key factors here that somehow need to be measured. 1) The number of years of control. The value of that player shouldn’t be calculated beyond those years. 2) The salary cost of that control. A 2 WAR player on a pre-ARB contract is a valuable asset for a team. That same 2 WAR player in year two or three of arbitration and earning 10 times the pre ARB salary is a marginal asset. One great deal was sending Liriano and his two months of control to the White Sox and getting all of Escobar’s control at a very low cost in his pre arb and arb seasons.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they should box themselves into 8 of their pitcher unavailable for any given game. Hill and Berrios are pretty efficient they might get to the 6th inning right from the beginning. If they get into the 6th inning it should be on the bullpen. Bailey and Maeda are also reasonably efficient. All four were under 4 pitches per plate appearance with Berrios the lowest at 3.72. Odorizzi is not nearly as efficient. He might need to be paired with someone (it doesn’t have to be the same pitcher every time) to bridge the gap to the bullpen early in the season. This is not a knock on Odorizzi. He simply throws more pitches per plate appearance because he doesn’t ever give in. He had many fewer 1 pitch at bats because he attacks with every pitch. The Twins need to be ready to take the 4 solid innings each time he goes out.
  15. jorgenswest
    I don’t see it. Arraez was young for his level and putting up OBPs much higher than Wiel in the minors. Wiel’s minor league slash of 263/340/459 would make him a marginal 1B if he could somehow match his minor league production in the majors.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think we know the names of the prospects who will be the most hurt. It will be the player who missed an opportunity to take a major step forward. Where is Randy Dobnak if this were last year? Going into last season he was an undrafted 24 year old with no experience above low A. His 2018 season there was an uninspiring 129 innings with only 84 strike outs as a player old for the league. The only way he gets noticed is by playing ball and dominating. Had we given up on Lewis Diaz? He doesn’t make a 60 man roster if this were last season. Prospects like Balazovic won’t be the ones hurt the most. It will be the players that would have taken this season by storm but instead are at home. They may not get another chance. We won’t know who they are.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think most teams have a need for AAAA players like Tovar, Maggi, Reinheimer, Adams and about 8 others that can fill in on the 40 if players are out with corona virus or injury and then can be removed from the 40 and thus DFA’d when players return.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is there a speedster on the 40 man roster for the bench? i have been thinking about who I might pinch run if the Twins had to put a runner on second in extra innings. Wade and Cave might be the best options and they have very similar base running data but they aren’t difference makers. Both are near league median. They are closer to Sano than they are to Buxton. Would Nick Gordon be a better option? Is he enough of an improvement to take the Cave/Wade roster spot? Celestine is better but do you start the service time?
  19. jorgenswest
    Aaron Gleeman's has a article in The Athletic on success of college first basemen drafted in the first round. https://theathletic.com/1866545/2020/06/13/spencer-torkelson-aaron-sabato-and-mlbs-missing-college-first-basemen/ The first look isn't encouraging but I wonder if there is a hidden value. Is it more likely for a college 1B to have success in their early minor league career and get notice as a valued prospect? Some of these college first basemen returned valuable pieces in trade. CC Sabathia (La Porta), Matt Holliday (Wallace), Cliff Lee (Smoak) and Mat Latos (Alonso) were all pieces acquired in trades that included these bats. The four players all had multiple appearances on top 100 lists ranking as high as 23, 27, 13 and 33 respectively. If you are a team that feels like you are in a competitive window the next 4 years trade assets like this have a lot of value at the trade deadline. Is there a hidden value here that the Twins are trying to leverage by drafting power hitting corner bats from college?
  20. jorgenswest
    I haven’t seen Jeffers catch but I did read articles about his improved defense at catcher from MLB, BA and this one during the spring. https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-ryan-jeffers-trying-to-become-minnesota-twins-threat-313325916 I don’t think the Twins see players as fixed in their skills but rather look for players who they believe can develop skills that can help. Jeffers was a poor defensive catcher at the time of the draft but that isn’t a label he needed to keep. Soularie may not be a starting CF or maybe there are things that are hard to see that he does really well like first step and routes. If not OF, do they see a starting 2B or see a utility guy that can be developed to fill in at 6 positions?
  21. jorgenswest
    Major league contracts start the options clock. It isn’t enough time to develop a player. Look back at the 2017 draft. There might be 3 players in that draft in Hiura, Canning and Haseley that don’t need more time in the minors. The only other guy in that class that may be ready is Randy Dobnak. He went undrafted.
  22. jorgenswest
    Sobering MLB draft trivia... The best hitter ever drafted with the 27th pick is Scott Stahoviak. He leads the group with 27 career home runs and 1014 at bats. Nick Franklin has slightly more WAR at 1.2 (Stahoviak has 1.0) but Franklin’s positional value gives him the boost. Would you take the over or under on 1 career WAR from Sobato?
  23. jorgenswest
    It is the revenue loss this year that will drive the need to reduce the payroll. They are extended a little further than other similarly revenued teams so it will be harder to bounce back. I think they will take a hard look at every contract that is not guaranteed.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Twins are going to need to cut payroll significantly next year. I think many teams in small and middle markets will be letting go of players like Rosario. It could a very odd structure of tiered salaries for the next year or two with players who have guaranteed money earning much more than those with expiring contracts unless some kind of agreement is made with the player’s association. Contracts like Donaldson’s are going to be a much bigger burden.
  25. jorgenswest
    I wonder If more starters are needed. They may need to stack starters early as they lengthen outings, I would have Thorpe and Smeltzer over Thielbar and Stashak early on.
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