jorgenswest

It seems like some are very focused on pitch count. One thing that has been pretty consistent pulling back end starters before they go through the line up the third time. In his last start Archer was pulled with the lead off hitter coming up for the third time. He was only at 57 pitches and it had been taking him 15-20 more pitches to get through the line up twice in his other starts. Smeltzer has seen batters a third time but those were 2 starts against the Royals and one against the Tigers. Yesterday he was up against one of the better hitting teams in baseball with a day off the next day. I can get behind a plan that pulls him early so he doesn’t see that line up a third time in those conditions. Is it possible that Rocco is more concerned about the third time through than pitch count?

The BTV math works here but I don’t see how the players are a fit for the A’s. They will immediately have 40 man roster trouble. How does Thielbar fit? Cano? Gordon without options? The return they accept for Montas should be the best prospect they can get. Someone will offer a better prospect than Balazovic. They might do something like Larnach for Montas and Puk. Do we believe in Celestino and Kirilloff enough to trade Larnach?

It is more likely Cotton never gets in the game. You can’t just push Cotton to the 6th and assume the results are the same. They had the match up they wanted for Cotton with the 8th place hitter coming up. They decided that Cotton gave them a better chance against those three right handed batters than Smeltzer. He came in and pitched a clean inning. If they leave in Smeltzer for the 5th the plan is still Jax to the middle of the line up in the 6th, Smith for the 7th and Duran for the last two.

Given that Cotton came in a clean 5th inning it is really hard to argue Smeltzer should have been left in. Did you really want him to face Springer again. His command was shaky. Do we want to hand the ball to Cotton with a runner on and Springer up? We can’t just push everyone back and imagine that Cotton would have had a clean 6th facing the middle of their line up. It still would have been Jax and Smith until their line up turned over and they gave it to Duran. I absolutely want my best pitcher pitching the last two innings against this team. Somehow this team won two games against a very good offense with many pitchers unavailable. There must be some credit we can give to the coaching staff.

The Twins will have several players returning soon. It isn’t a roster crunch. There aren’t enough good players to create that crunch. There will be some challenging decisions. I think the position players is pretty clear. There will likely be 12 until June 19. Position players Jeffers, Sanchez, Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela, Gordon, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, Garlick. That is a little thin in the infield but Kepler can play 1B and Arraez and Gordon have the other three. Hopefully Lewis joins the team when they need to drop to 13 pitchers. They could keep Miranda but who goes down? Palacios is probably in Correa’s spot until he returns. There are several pitchers expected to return by the 19th. Ryan, Gray, Winder, Alcala, Stashak and Coulombe could all be ready. That gives a few players a week or so the keep their jobs. Starters in order of their likely appearance. Ober, Archer, Bundy, Smeltzer, (Ryan?) Bullpen (not ordered other than Duran) Duran, Jax, Smith, Duffey, Pagán, Thielbar, Cotton, Moran, Megill, Minaya (until Ryan is added) Gray needs to be in the rotation when ready. Alcala needs to be in the pen. Stashak has options but might be better than those without. Is Coulombe worthy of a spot? I don’t think Megill, Minaya or Cotton have options. If they are matched to a player with COVID they can be returned. Do we need any of them though? They have to get to the best 13 by the 19th. Who is your 13? I do expect some Il moves as others come back. At least one of Bundy, Archer, Duffey or Pagán could easily be headed to the IL followed by a rehab and hope that they return to effectiveness.

That was a tough match up for Smeltzer and he would have hit the line up a third time through in the 5th inning with Springer batting third. Starting Cotton with a clean inning was a reasonable move given the day off.

The Twins losing week ended on a positive note and several players had a chance to show their talents. I am left with these impressions. Palacios has a plus major league glove at SS and minimally will be a valuable piece on the bench. I am thankful that the rule 5 was canceled. Cotton looks like a useful mid game arm and should remain on the roster. I want to see more from Moran. Miranda looks much better at the plate. He looks like a helpful depth piece that can move back and forth on options. Gordon has really improved in the outfield and is worthy of a spot a major league roster. Celestino looks like a future starter. I wonder how much he would bring back in trade. I have more confidence in Smeltzer than any other starter other than Ryan and Gray. I have no confidence in Duffey or Pagán. They don’t have enough pitching.

It strikes me that we are putting up our best healthy starter against a Cy Young hopeful today. That the pitcher happens to be Devin Smeltzer and we are in first place is not something I would have ever imagined. Toronto’s right handed laden line up couldn’t be a more difficult match up for him. Let’s see if he can keep us in the game.

I think the way teams value defense in left field has changed with the statcast data. The days of Willingham may not return. In Target Field a left fielder that can cover a lot of ground can be very helpful particularly with the more extreme shifts. To bring it back to the topic this is where the athletic Martin may fit well defensively (as well as 2B).

That is a good comparison. Shoemaker’s last start was game 57. He had an ERA of 7.28 after that game. I don’t know his FIP but he pitched little after that and it was 6.57 for the year. Yesterday was game 55. Bundy’s ERA is 5.57 (FIP 4.62). Unless Winder, Gray and Ryan are all ready to return soon without rehab they don’t have a better option for his next start or two.

It doesn’t need the same players but just similar as a means of retaining value. It could be Canterino instead of Woods-Richardson. They have similar value according to BTV.

I guess those next two starts include the Yankees and Mariners. A good start against the Yankees probably gets him beyond the 2.5. A poor start and they may go the IL route.

Would Martin and Woods-Richardson bring back Frankie Montas? If so the deal is a win. They would be giving up a season Berrios where they were going nowhere for a 2023 season from Montas.

Good work from Duffey.

Just as I submitted I heard Duffey getting loose.

Before we second guess Baldelli what would be your plan to get to the end of the game? Can Cotton go any further? Give Hamilton or Minaya a shot at the bottom of the lineup? Close with Smith or Duffey? I think I want Smith ready to try to put a fire out instead of starting an inning. I think fire season may soon be upon us.

Kikuchi is a lefty. Kepler likely would have been on the bench tonight. This would have been the game to help his legs recover. Pagan pitched yesterday. May not have been available today. They have other arms in the pen to replace him. The impact on tonight’s game seems minimal. Is Celestino back? Maybe he gets the key hit or scores the winning run. Maybe Hamilton has a clean inning or two midgame to bridge to the end. Theilbar? Does Toronto doesn’t have left handed bats to worry about? If they lose tonight it shouldn’t be on the unvaccinated.

I guess I can respect how important the decision is to each of these players. I don’t think they are getting paid. Megill is giving up major league pay. Kepler must be giving up around 125000. This is not a decision I would have made but I can respect it.

The Twins need a starter and a late game high leverage bullpen arm. There will be a significant prospect cost but they need to acquire both as well as at least another bullpen arm. It would have been a lower prospect cost to acquire Bassett or Manaea had they tried to win those deals instead of trading for Paddack and creating a void in the pen. Now they will need to acquire both in a trade environment of greater demand. Oh well. Time to pay up.

OK. Take a look at the article from UPI that was in the moment. Also the drop in ERA is significantly. It went up after he left.

What was the reason? The way it is written I get the implication he did a poor job as pitching coach. Is that what you intended? This is from his article at SABR From UPI

I think there is an agreement with the union that they can be temporarily placed on 40 and returned/removed without option or DFA.

There was never any reason to think Joe Smith had changed. His ERA has bounced around due to the small sample of any single season of a reliever. Reliever ERA should be ignored. His xFIP has been very stable for 4 years. Use him to put out a fire against right handed batting in the middle innings and he will be useful. Pagán’s command trouble shows itself in two ways. If he pitches to stay out of the center of the plate he gives up too many walks. If he pitches to keep his walks down he gives up too much hard contact. There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground. His outlier year with the Rays is three years in the past and in a year he stranded 95% of base runners. That really isn’t a skill. His career number is 80%. This year it is 98% thus far. I would expect it to be closer to his career number going forward. The Padres wanted to send him to the Mets even without getting a reliever back. I wonder if they planned on keeping him if they didn’t find a trade partner. The Twins could have fixed their starting pitching needs by trading prospects. Instead they cut the head off their bullpen. As Chief said at the time… “No team serious about contending trades Rogers.” Unlike the Padres, the Twins are not serious about contending this year.

Lewis to IL. Miranda returns. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/twins-to-place-royce-lewis-on-injured-list.html

??? Are you implying that he isn’t injured now? How would not playing him now with injured outfielders and a double header coming up benefit the Twins? I honestly don’t understand your line of though here. I must not be reading it right.