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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Thoughts reading the thread… How much longer will Story be effective at SS. Defense does not age well at SS. Is defense at SS still important enough to sign a short term glove first defender? Why did the author choose to use OOA for the defensive metric over UZR or DRS? I had been using it also but ran into some studies that turned me back to RDS and UZR for infielders. Is there anything that points to OOA for middle infielders as more reliable? Donaldson was much worse than any other 3B last year according to UZR. Should we be worried? Most of the negative came from errors. Polanco was similar at SS with his poor UZR tied to errors in 2019. He had a positive UZR at SS in 2020. Does SS cause considerably more stress on the ankle than 2B? Is there any other case where a player moved to 2B in order to reduce stress on their legs? Is it possible the most upside in wins is Polanco at SS, Arraez at 2B and spend all available budget as a result on pitching?
  2. jorgenswest
    Great news! I wonder how the Twins account for the incentives in their budget. I guess this is something that might factor in more during the trade deadline (and their willingness to take on contracts) if he is healthy and likely to earn those incentives.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Giants added 7 free agents to the 2021 team according to Spotrac. The largest AAV was LaStella at 6.25 million. His was a three year contract. McGee signed a 2 year contract at 2.5 million per year. DeSclafani signed a one year 6 million dollar contract. Alex Wood signed for 1 year a 3 million. The other three Casali, Wisler and Brebbia were around a million. Jose Alvarez was also signed in March for about 1 million. Zac Littell was not in Spotrac but maybe he was a minor league free agent. They also made some trade prior to the 2021 season. Sam Conrood for Carson Ragsdale. Shaun Anderson for LaMonte Wade Did I miss any other additions to the 2021 team? I would love for the Twins to follow this same path. The Giants retained all of their prospects and did not commit to any significant contracts. Instead their talented staff made great decisions. I think this is the path I would advocate for given the current outlook. Sign Buxton. Take a flyer on some inexpensive free agents. If they do trade prospects they need to get multiple years of control. It really comes down to the Twins staff making great decisions. I wish I were more confident.
  4. jorgenswest
    This team is not close to a contender. They can’t trade off prospect capital for players with one year of control.
  5. jorgenswest
    IfI understand this right wouldn’t that mean in 10 games he was able to produce 1.7 fWAR to get to his 4.2 for the season? Wow! I want that player on my team. I would pay up big for that kind of talent.
  6. jorgenswest
    How similar is Cobb to 2019 Homer Bailey? Seems like same age and some similar peripherals. Bailey was healthy in 2019 starting more games that season than Cobb started in 2021 and 2020 combined. In fact Bailey has pitched more major league innings since 2019 than Cobb has pitched in the same time frame. When you combine those two seasons as we probably should given that he had less than 100 innings last year his numbers don’t look very promising. He had only 5 starts of at least 6 innings last year. Bailey pitched well in 2019. Happ pitched well in 2020. Cobb pitched well in 2021. Go back one year for each and they don’t look that promising. It is critical to take a two or three year look when considering a mid 30s pitcher.
  7. jorgenswest
    I would trade Arraez for starting pitching. Three paths they might pursue. Seek a ready but not yet established younger start and bet on the upside. The Guardians McKenzie comes to mind. Seek an established younger starter and add a few prospect arms like Woods-Richardson and Canterino. The Giants Webb comes to mind. Seek an established number top of the rotation starter with one year left before free agency. Berrios comes to mind. I am not necessarily advocating for those three specifically but just outlining different paths. Do they go for upside of an unestablished but promising pitcher? Do they trade away some upside to get an established pitcher with control? Do they maximize the return for 2022 without sacrificing the prospect upside? Which is the better path for Twins?
  8. jorgenswest
    They need to focus on the top two tiers of pitchers and then use prospect capital to trade for pitching, Assuming Ryan and Ober are 4-5 I would not fill the top three roles with a buy low candidate. Of the three I am not certain Rodriguez is a buy low and may be a good multi year fit.
  9. jorgenswest
    Does the changing environment of fewer balls in play, swings that lead to more fly balls and infields that shift with every batter also call for a change in the models we use to put a value on defense? Is it possible that elite shortstop play doesn’t contribute as many wins as it did 10 or 20 years ago? Perhaps the Twins value defense at SS too highly in this new environment. Polanco might be the answer.
  10. jorgenswest
    I would put money into a top 2 starter and Buxton. Shortstop is a demanding position and unless they are elite like Simmons or Crawford they are often below average defenders in their late 20s. In this list there is only one player with a positive OOA at SS in Correa. Story and Seager ranked 27th and 28th of 36 qualified. Baez was 20th. The three will probably need to move the position before their contract expires. Maybe long before. Semien has already moved off and justifiably so. in 2020 Polanco ranked above Semien, Seager and Story. They already have Polanco at 2B and Donaldson/Arraez at 3B. There is no space for movement. My fear is that they will wait out the market and Story will be the last remaining, They will end up overpaying for a player whose best days at SS are well behind him bringing a bat that has been boosted by a .972 career OPS at home vs. .752 on the road, Unless they want to go after Correa I don’t think any of the others are a real upgrade over Polanco.
  11. jorgenswest
    Gray at 30 is the only one of interest and I think the length of the contract he will be given may include too much of his decline. Still I can see him as a capable play off starter for the next few years. Grienke is too old. I think it would be unwise to ignore 2020 for DeSclafani and I would also add his most recent start to the data. He is only reliable until he isn’t anymore and some is going to pay for the isn’t. I am not buying high here. My preference is they either sign or trade for someone age 30 or younger who they see as a capable game 1 or 2 starter in the playoffs or they go young for next year. I wouldn’t commit multiple years to a pitcher who will spend too much of that time as a back end starter. I wouldn’t sign more one year stop gap starters while they kick the can down the road on development of their young pitchers.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins need Ryan and Ober to be the top two. They will find corner outfielders. Pitching has been so hard to find.
  13. jorgenswest
    It don’t see it as a Cave or Colina question. I assume they have some plan on number of healthy pitchers they project on the 40. If he is healthy it is really a question of Colina and the pitchers on the edge of the 40 whether that is Smeltzer or Thorpe or a waiver claim. If he isn’t projected to be healthy I get it. They have a few other injured pitchers they are carrying and he really hasn’t pitched since 2019 with the option clock started. Does this point to their intention to contend? A rebuilding team might keep a Colina and the upside. A team planning to contend needs to optimize those 40 man spots for players that contribute now.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am thankful they have him next season. Good move a few years back to protect his service time in a season where he had an OPS+ of 5. For comparison Simmons has an OPS+ of 58 this year. He will sign if they pay up.
  15. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t see how he would have any trade value. There will several fringe 40 man roster players available. I suppose a trade like the Wade deal is possible. I fear saying that because this is not a thread about Wade and some might derail it. The kind of return would be similar is my point.
  17. jorgenswest
    Relievers can be hard to trade in the off season because there is often a good supply a free agent relievers. Why trade prospects for Rogers when you can pay a few million more and get a similar reliever without hitting your farm system? Teams would have to wait until the reliever market is exhausted before trading. This off-season is different though. After Kenley Jansen there aren’t any relievers as reliable as Rogers. Kimbrel might be non-tendered but the supply of closers is small. Rogers will have trade value. With the limited supply the Twins won’t be able to replace him with another free agent. That supply thing is a double edged sword.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t know if it is this deal but this is the kind of buy low trade the Twins front office needs to find and win. The kind of trade where most on the outside will reject. They need to be better than other teams at capturing the upside of players like Torres.
  19. jorgenswest
    When you sign an aging veteran to a four year deal you count on the bulk of that value to be in the first two years. He has performed as expected the first two years with a 125 OPS+ and starting 137 of 208 games. I would expect both those numbers will drop in the next two years. He is still a good player but relative to his contract likely a negative value. Those contracts are hard to trade in the off-season when there is also a supply of players in free agency, In two years that money will free up and the Twins can take another shot at a big free agent commitment
  20. jorgenswest
    At the trade Eno Sarris compared him to Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. I think he had some video of how his fastball and arm action were similar to Petit. Let’s hope he is near the upper extreme with his effectiveness in that style. Can he develop the pitch mix to face batters multiple times in the game? Can he be as effective from the stretch as he is from the wind up? Can he survive a likely high fly ball rate and avoid giving up too many home runs with runners on base? I think he will have some growing pains but he needs to be at this level.
  21. jorgenswest
    No to one year decline phase place holders.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think we have been given the answer. We might not agree with the Twins approach but Ober has thrown more innings this season than any of his previous professional season. They are limiting his remaining workload both within games and days of rest between starts.
  23. jorgenswest
    Hands are incredibly important to hitting and usually a lengthy rehab on the minors when recovering. He is doing that rehab here and it shows. When he was in the minors on his short rehab stay some wondered why he wouldn’t be up in the majors rehabbing given this is a lost season. His return this month is not predictive of his future and if the Twins front office use it to project his future value they will be mistaken. I think back to David Ortiz who suffered both a hamate injury early and wrist injury later in his time with the Twins. He did not perform well in return from either of those injuries and I think it led the Twins to project him as an inconsistent hitter that could not be counted on to perform well consistently.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think they need to take the Mariners path. They need to be better than everyone else at identifying a Chris Flexen. They need to invest innings in young pitchers like Gilbert, Sheffield and Dunn. They need to identify the prospects in trade that will make an impact as they did with Gonzalez. If they go the free agent route it has to be for multiple years of control as it was with Kikuchi. The Mariners have seen success and have one of the younger pitching staffs in baseball. Maybe the best moves this winter will be one where no ones would have predicted success.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins have proved false the often stated “There is no such thing as a bad one year contract”. The practice of signing stop gap pitchers to the rotation or late inning relief needs to stop. That gap only becomes wider the next year and the decline phase pitchers often found in one year deals are not guaranteed gap fillers. This doesn’t mean do nothing. They need to sign a free agent pitcher to a long term contract for the top of their rotation. They can make trades as they did for Odorizzi and Maeda. Instead of signing the Happ’s and Shoemaker’s they need to be better than every other team at identifying pitchers that have failed elsewhere and find that upside. They also need to invest innings into their own young pitching. If they can’t develop their own under control pitching they can not sustain success.
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