Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,085

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    It will not be a failure to set the bar high and end up keeping Buxton and Berrios at the deadline. A failure would be to trade them for a larger quantity of lesser prospects. The Rangers may well come out ahead with the volume of Yankee prospects but I think the likelihood of getting an elite player is significantly reduced. They do need to move Pineda and hopefully Simmons for the best they can get. There are a few possible sell high opportunities in Donaldson and Thielbar. Their value will decline. The same may be true about Duffey. They do need to move on from Happ, Robles and probably Colome. Keeping Belisle instead of looking at Anderson was a huge mistake. They can’t make that same mistake with Hamilton by keeping Robles around.
  2. jorgenswest
    The pitching has been so bad from so many that I have to wonder how much is on Wes and how much is on the front office in building this roster. When you veteran starter gives allows 14 base runners in 23 batters getting 9 outs while giving up 9 runs it is hard to put the responsibility for this game anywhere else. I am doubting Wes made any changes to Happ. The front office was horribly wrong believing they could get another year out of Happ. The bullpen options aren’t any better. No manager could navigate the final 6 innings with the bullpen pieces provided by the front office.. Was simply bad luck that the Twins are getting 10th percentile performance from so many of their acquisitions. That doesn’t seem possible. Has the physics of the game changed with the new ball? Has that impact been greater on the types of pitchers that the Twins analysis favors? Did their analysis lead them to more pitchers who were positively helped by spider tack? They have failed miserably in projecting performance of pitchers and they need to take a hard look at the scouting/analytics that led them to those pitchers. A serious internal review needs to happen.
  3. jorgenswest
    Robles season long poor peripherals have been hidden much of the season by an ERA that gave the impression that he was a better option among the bullpen. While ERA does tell the story of what has happened it is a horrible predictor of future performance outside of multiyear samples for relievers. A better predictor is xFIP and Robles xFIP has been the poorest among Rogers, Alcala, Thielbar, Duffey and Colome for much of the season. While his monthly ERAs vary wildly his xFIP monthly has been pretty stable in the 4s and 5s. He has one season in the last five with an xFIP below 4. He has not had a month this season with a xFIP below 4. He is the same pitcher he was in the winter when there was little interest. I would have been surprised if there was much interest at the deadline.
  4. jorgenswest
    The Twins need him next year and I don’t move him unless I get an overpay for a player under control. It should be more than a fair deal to motivate the Twins to make the move. Fair deals don’t move the needle. They need to find some highly motivated this year to pay a little more.
  5. jorgenswest
    Overpays only for these three or keep the asset for 2022. I think these are fair deals but it overpays. I would also be cautious of buying high on any prospect. The small sample of this season really needs to be in line with previous seasons and we don’t have 2020 data. If a guy is riding this year to their highest prospect status regression should be expected. There might be more value in buying low.
  6. jorgenswest
    This is Alcala’s first full season. If they don’t want to endure the growing pains of a young pitcher the alternative is trading them while they are prospects and use free agency for the pitching staff. I did wonder why Alcala was the choice. He pitched yesterday. Robles and Duffey had several days of rest. Robles threw 7 pitches this week. Neither a Rogers or Minaya pitched yesterday. Why Alcala?
  7. jorgenswest
    I was glad to see it reported that the Twins asking price for Kepler is exorbitant. It should be for any of the assets they have under control beyond this season. Seemingly fair deals don’t make this franchise better. They need someone to come in and offer some level of overpay for Kepler. If there is a team that is going for it this year with a pressing need they might get that overpay.
  8. jorgenswest
    We define bust very differently, Sano’s .489 slugging percentage as a Twin is listed second all time behind Harmon Killebrew. Using OPS+ to adjust for hitting context he ranks 19th just behind Justin Morneau. The data from baseball reference includes the time the franchise was in Washington. I would be very reluctant to sell low on Sano. I would bet on the upside we have seen previously over Rooker’s upside.
  9. jorgenswest
    Is there very much value in using ERA, FIP or home run rates to evaluate relievers at their small samples? It is even hard to use strike out and walk rate at Hamilton’s sample. Any walk rate change from early season to now can easily be explained by random variation due to two small samples. Low BABIPs, high LOB% and low HR rates can make a mediocre pitcher’s ERA look really good in reliever samples. I can’t find hope in the numbers because the sample is just too small. I would find hope if there were reports of a new or improved pitch as shown by pitch level data. It might be there. The Twins have it. More importantly they see him every day. We are pretty blind in the data we can see,
  10. jorgenswest
    Eno Sarris in his Rates and Barrels podcast sees Ryan similar in style to Ben Lively and Yusmiero Petit in his fastball use and the way he hides the ball. Another comp is Freddy Peralta. No starter uses the fastball as much as Ryan. Early in his career Peralta threw the fastball nearly 80% of the time. Now in his fourth year Peralta has a good slider which has made his fastball a very good weapon using it 55% of the time. What is the best path for Ryan towards success in a starting rotation? It is going to take time. This is Peralta’s fourth season. Ben Lively is in Korea. Petit eventually settled in a career as a set up reliever. Should he start as an opener or following an opener seeing batters once or twice with heavy use of his fastball? Will he need to bounce back and forth to the minors for a few years developing pitches to complement his fastball? Ryan is major league ready for 2022 in the sense that he has success as he moved up the ladder. He might not be ready to be a successful major leaguer without a few years of growing pains. Can we wait through that struggle?
  11. jorgenswest
    Arraez does see more pitches than any other Twin batter. Sano is right behind him in second spot. That number is virtually the same, Arraez has a high contact rate up there with Astudillo. Perhaps it is the combination of the two. They are both more middle of the Twins pack on swinging at pitches out of the zone. Sano does see a lot of pitches which is a burden on the pitch count. He probably doesn’t swing early enough in the count and maybe more early aggression is part of the solution.
  12. jorgenswest
    How do you measure working pitchers? Batters that make a lot of contact? Batters that see a greater number of pitches? Batters that see a lot of strikes? Balls?
  13. jorgenswest
    The Brewers must be pretty happy about Adames.
  14. jorgenswest
    He’s a kid with a really tough decision to make. I am sure he feels a commitment to his teammates. I think it was simply a post of his emotions and his decision at the moment. He may well swing the other way when to comes time to sign. I can’t imagine that an agent would advise him such a post would actually cause the Twins to make a better offer. The Twins really need to wait and see who they have left to sign and allocate the remaining pool to maximize the talent they are bringing in.
  15. jorgenswest
    In isolation the Donaldson deal looks fine after two years. Is it possible that the mistake was devoting so many dollars to position players and then trying to get with one year deals on pitching? Let’s suppose they could have won the Ryu deal with the Donaldson money and then did a one year deals on a 1B? Are they better off? Does a more reliable starting pitcher have a positive impact on the whole staff by reducing the load on the bullpen? note- if you are interested in debating again whether Ryu or another would have signed with the Twins let’s find an already existing thread to do that. The wonder here is whether the Twins are devoting too little of the budget on pitching.
  16. jorgenswest
    MLB batters torched Berrios to start his career across more than the 6 starts Thorpe received. My point is larger than any one player. I advocate and have advocated for the Twins to invest innings into their young pitching rather than fill with decline phase veterans on one year contracts. You end up with the same problem of no starting pitching depth every year. If the innings go to Wells (though I think he is a reliever in Baltimore) instead of Thorpe the concept is the same. Invest innings in young starting pitching next year. Give them a long leash. It might be a season or two of mediocre seasons with struggling young pitchers. It is also a way to develop a foundation they can build on.
  17. jorgenswest
    In Whitley you go for the huge upside. It might be worth the risk. He can be an ace or he might be Alex Meyer. I think I might buy low on Whitley to headline this deal. The Astros use of Brown and really limiting His innings. His last start was 50 pitches. I am not sure his traditional statistics have much value. It might be a relative buy high. I think the Twins can do better for Rogers.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins should be confident that the comp pick will remain and should have that in mind as they consider trading Berrios or Buxton. Neither side will have strong motivation to drop it. The union doesn’t like the penalty of losing a pick. That may be eliminated. I expect the comp pick to remain. Megill is 25 with a sample of 64 innings this years across three levels. His major league contribution is 24 innings. I don’t think there are any stats other than maybe some some pitch level that should be considered in projecting his future. Countless mediocre players have put up a really good stretch of innings. Looking at his 5 starts he has some pretty high pitch counts for some shorts starts. Does he have a put away pitch to close out at bats? Does he have enough to pitch to the top of a line up a third time? Megill was drafted as a reliever out of college. He ranked the number 21 Met prospect. He is off to a very solid start at 25. The Mets have reason to be encouraged. Isn’t Tyler Duffey’s path from college reliever to very encouraging results across 9 starts in 2015 pretty similar?
  19. jorgenswest
    I want a pitcher to headline any deal for Berrios and the Mets don’t have anyone that is see as that headliner. I think they can get deals similar to those suggested by Abriano if the Twins happen to be sellers in a year.
  20. jorgenswest
    If the team decides they are all in for next year they are better off trading them rather than go through the struggles of a young starting pitcher, I hope they decide to build a foundation and acknowledge that will decrease their chance of competing next year. I hope they invest innings into Winder, Balazovic, Duran and anyone they might acquire. I hope they have not closed the door on Thorpe or Dobnak. Thorpe has 6 major league starts. Berrios after his first 14 major league starts had an ERA of 8.02. Dobnak sits at 20 major league starts. I see a lot of 25 and under pitchers in this division with a lot of promise. Detroit has Mize, Skubal and Manning. The White Sox have Cease, Crochet and Kopech (Giolito is 26). The Royals have Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Keller. The Indians have McKenzie, Hentzges, Allen and Morgan as well as four 26 year olds including Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Quantrill. The Twins have Ober and it took a series of injuries to get to that point. The outlook for Twins starting pitching in 2023 is pretty dismal. I would be on the path of developing a foundation over competing next year. I would not do any one year deals for free agent pitching to try to compete. I also would not in any way think that seeing these pitches this year will tell us anything about next year. They may really struggle and that struggle may be part of the process. They may have early success but then struggle next year as the league adjusts. I am all in for investing innings in young starters next year no matter how they perform early in their careers.
  21. jorgenswest
    He may be one of their best but I don’t think he is a great trade asset. He also might be a sell low right now. If teams need to fill a 2021 hole they are really better off getting a rental that is likely to put up better numbers over two months. That rental won’t have the same overall trade value but probably fits their need better. The Yankees with their injuries come to mind. They might be better off finding a short term replacement and then signing a better long term fix this winter in free agency, The better fit might be a smaller market team where his reasonable contract and control would suit them long term. That also describes the Twins though. If someone will give them a good starting pitching prospect or perhaps shortstop prospect they should do the deal. That doesn’t seem likely.
  22. jorgenswest
    That would be awesome. The only way I see a mid/small market team assembling this staff is if two of those pitchers are under control with at least one of them in early or pre-arb. In free agency those 3 would probably be around 80 million a year and that investment would have no impact on at least 40% of the schedule. It is critical that the Twins acquire and develop those top of the rotation team control starters. That won’t happen for 2022 but maybe trading off assets like Berrios and Rogers this year can set them on that path.
  23. jorgenswest
    Has Garlick used an option this year? If they option him this year will it be his last? I would rather keep that option either for the possibility of a AAAA shuttle player next year or maybe in trade for a AAAA middle infielder or reliever with an option.
  24. jorgenswest
    What is the options status of the 5? I am certain Refsnyder is out of options. How about Cave and Garlick? They would have value I’d they have an option for next year. I am pretty certain Astudillo and Rooker will have an option left. Any with options have value as a AAAA player. They also have value in a trade for a different AAAA player that might be a better positional fit.
  25. jorgenswest
    Linder is injured with a grade 2 strain. He will be out for a while. Send Simmons to get a C prospect.
×
×
  • Create New...