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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think a ban will result in unintended and unforeseen consequences. I can’t see the unforeseen but I do have a thought on one consequence I don’t want. The shifting has most impact on upper cut pull hitters. The same players helping to drive the strike out rates up and balls in play down. If shifting is banned we will see more of these one dimensional hitters who will fare better in those conditions. Let the game adjust to the shift and produce more bat control line drive hitters who use the whole field and bring more speed to the game. We don’t need a rule change to fix this. We need teams that can recognize the talent and skills to beat it.
  2. jorgenswest
    In the era of shifting is team defense ranking more valuable than the individual pieces. The Twins have had one year in the last three where their defense as a team finished in the top half whether by DRS or UZR and that was 2020 when they ranked 8th and 10th. Last year they ranked 28th by UZR and 12th by DRS. It was 25 and 23 in 2019. In 2020 the most common middle infield was Arraez at 2B and Polanco at SS. Maybe the best place is 2B.
  3. jorgenswest
    Do you believe that the Twins would be making a mistake starting Martin over Palacios at SS? Perhaps Palacios is closer to major league ready. Is it based on your assessment that he outplayed Martin? Is that from seeing them play or interpreting the data?
  4. jorgenswest
    I am listening here but maybe not convinced yet. My thinking is to acquire a pitcher like Montas at a prospect cost similar to that we acquired for Berrios. That would effectively give them an extra year given the pitcher has 2023 control. I have no interest in trading prospects for a pitcher like Bassitt who has one year of control. I suppose you could be of the mind that they should just wait to acquire a Montas type next year and that will be a lower prospect cost buying just one year. Why just toss 2022 though? The Twins have one projection (from PECOTA) of 84 wins. Would Montas push that projection into the 87-88 range? That might get them in the playoffs and certainly would make for a more entertaining season. On the other hand projections in the mid to upper 70s is probably more reasonable and Montas doesn’t do enough at that point. Maybe I ought to change my thinking here.
  5. jorgenswest
    When camps open spring training will be short. There will be a need for arms. This presents an opportunity for players like Yenier Cano, Devin Smeltzer, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Megill and others to seize the moment and win a spot on a major league roster. They are too old to be classified prospects but we should be paying attention.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t see making a trade for Montas as musical chairs. The years of control are not the same and I want that 2023 season. If would trade Berrios’ last two months if 2021 for Montas’ full 2023 season.
  7. jorgenswest
    One wonder I have about trades is whether teams are working those now ready to announce them as an agreement is reached.
  8. jorgenswest
    I agree although the author chose to put “Raw Deal” in the title which is sure to bring out more emotion from readers and hence more views and responses. “It would be nice to see a full season from Royce Lewis” wouldn’t bait more readers to join in the discussion.
  9. jorgenswest
    Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay and Wright were the top 5. It was a bad year to have a number 1 pick.
  10. jorgenswest
    There were a few sobering reports at the time of the trade. There was reasonable concern about home runs as well as pitching with runners on base. He didn’t allow many runners on base in the minors but was hit much harder with runners on base. The comps to his pitching style and release from Eno Sarris were Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. In any case he is ready to be in a major league rotation today. That is a great return for two months of a DH.
  11. jorgenswest
    The better question would be is Buxton’s extension a mistake. My answer to that is no. I am pretty sure in that moment of signing I didn’t believe any of Kepler, Polanco or Sano was a mistake. Sano’s hasn’t paid off but the upside of that deal was real. They could avoid the risk of a mistake in hindsight by never doing anything. I don’t think they take enough risk. In that frame I hope they risk making more mistakes. I like the upside of the Buxton contract in spite of the risk. I felt the same with Sano.
  12. jorgenswest
    MLBTR had Story at 6/126 so the suggested AAV of 23 million is greater but for four years. He may well get 7/200 but MLBTR must have told the same joke. As for a plan I think one piece of a long term plan is prioritizing how much of the budget to spend on pitching and position players. My hope going into the off season was that significant dollars would be devoted to pitching. I think they need a free agent and a trade to fill those top two spots. They failed miserably getting pitching and Rodon is left and he comes with health concerns. I would sign Rodon. MLBTR suggested 1/25 but I want an option for 2023. I don’t know what numbers it would take to win the deal. Start with a base of 15 million this year and 25 next year with a buyout of 5. Add in incentives for games pitched this year scaling to 5 million. Either way the Twins pay about 20 million this year factoring in buy out if injured. Rodon gets a salary greater than the tender the White Sox would not offer. The Twins take a shot on a high upside pitcher. If he doesn’t work out they have that money to go after pitching next year. If it does work out the outlook for 2023 is much brighter.
  13. jorgenswest
    Montas makes sense to me because of the 2023 control. Montas, Maeda and a free agent next year or even Rodon this year feels like a staff that you can bring into a playoff series and contend. They need a free agent and a trade acquisition to fill those top two spots. Maeda and two from the young pitchers rounds out that staff.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think Polanco’s 4.1 WAR is the second best season by a home grown SS bested by Versalles MVP season, Cardenas and Smalley each had a season better than 4.1 WAR and Smalley matched it once. Maybe it is a matter of failed recognition rather than development. The Twins may have the SS answer in the clubhouse. This an era of shifting and fewer balls in play suits a bat first SS. I think the ceiling on Twin wins in 2022 is greater with Polanco at SS. Perhaps the floor is lower with the increased injury risk but the ceiling on wins matters way more than the floor.
  15. jorgenswest
    It would take something like Martin and Woods-Richardson to land Montas but I would do it. It may seem like the Twins have no direction in trading the prospects they received for Berrios for a starter. The net result though is an additional year of control at the cost of two months of Berrios on a team going nowhere, The rest of the four don’t impress me as pitchers I want in the top three of a playoff rotation so if a playoff rotation is the goal I would suggest we are quite a ways from fixing it.
  16. jorgenswest
    To be clear I wanted the Twins to offer Ryu the money they offered Donaldson. I wanted the Twins to offer any Story money on starting pitching and it appears Rodon is the last one standing. Investing in starting pitching has a positive impact on the whole staff in terms of less burden on the bullpen. I guess I could go the place that there isn’t anyone left this year to spend that money on so they should spend it on Story. It isn’t a one year deal though so the pitching problem persists. If not Rodon trade prospects for a pitcher from the Reds or A’s or Marlins and then use the Story money to sign that guy to an extension. Signing Story and then getting guys like Pineda or Odorizzi who would not be any playoff teams top 3 is not a direction I think they should go.
  17. jorgenswest
    With the signing of Donaldson instead of a pitcher the Twins have devoted too much of their budget to position players. You could argue that at the time they signed Donaldson there were no pitchers left to spend that money on. It wasn’t a one year decision though. I think there are some parallels. The Twins really needed to spend on a pitcher. They didn’t and Story is left with space in the budget this year but it won’t be a short term deal and commitment to another position player with at least a few reasonable question marks. Are we confident that we can ignore the home road splits? Shortstops don’t age well. Are we ready to accept that he may quickly move to average and then below average in the first few years? Will there be space at 3B or 1B when that happens? At 1B he will be very overpaid. I would rather overpay to win Rodon and take the injury risk of a pitcher over the decline of a SS. When they don’t win Rodon I still am not in on Story. I am looking to trades to spend on pitching.
  18. jorgenswest
    In honor of Black History month two players that never made it to the major leagues had a great impact on the futures of several Twins. Chuck Weatherspoon and Ollie Brantley were cited by Rod Carew in his book as being a great help getting through the minors. Both started out in the negro leagues in the 50s. Both were in the Twins system from years playing and mentoring several future Twins including Rod Carew, Jim Kaat, Zoilo Versailles, Tony Oliva, Cesar Tovar, Bert Blyleven and Tom Hall In 1961 Chuck Weatherspoon hit a record 7 grand slams for the Wilson Tobbs. He played in the minor leagues with the Senators/Twins from 1957 to 1969. He hit 230 home runs in his minor league career. Ollie Brantley played for the Twins organization from 1962-1969. In his best season he was 15-8 with a 1.63 ERA playing for Orlando. Rod Carew was on that team that went 77-57.
  19. jorgenswest
    Gordon had a few years of significant health issues that really weakened his body in a time he should have been building it up. Those weaknesses had to impact his bat and defense. I hope that he comes into the season having built up this winter and turns some heads with both the bat and the glove.
  20. jorgenswest
    It should be clear to a Larnach this off season where he needs to work. If he does that work and figures it out the time he spent in the majors last year would have been worthwhile. If instead he had spent most of 2021 in AAA and did OK in a September call up maybe the need for that work isn’t realized.
  21. jorgenswest
    It starts with one, but think my question there distracts from the point. I regret the words. Did the front office allocate their resources well in signing Donaldson instead of a starting pitcher? That Donaldson money would have signed a very good starting pitcher.
  22. jorgenswest
    Not his fault but maybe there is some blame. Should the Twins have devoted more money to pitching? What if they made the same offer to Ryu that winter? It was a step up from the money he received from the Blue Jays. They can then take the Bailey money and find a corner infielder. Is our record better in 2020? Do we win a playoff game with Ryu instead of Dobnak? Is our outlook better for 2022?
  23. jorgenswest
    I wonder how much of the difference between his expected performance and actual was his legs and not bad luck. Did he lose out on base hits because of his legs? Did doubles turn into singles? Are teams able to take away other hits because they shift more aggressively not worried about his speed? Certainly infielders can play deeper. His UZR at 3B was the poorest in the league and it wasn’t close. Was it his legs? What can we expect in 2022? I wouldn’t expect him to play as many games. I still expect a gap between performance and batted ball data. I still expect that the batted ball data will be pretty good.
  24. jorgenswest
    We don’t need to argue about whether he would have signed beyond the one year. The Twins were desperate for relief pitching that one year. They were so desperate that they signed Blake Parker. They were so desperate that they traded for Sam Dyson. The pitchers they gave up (Berroa and Teng) in the Dyson deal have the same trade value as Alcala does today. BTV sees it is a fair deal. It was a bad deal even assuming he left in free agency. Debating whether or not he would have signed simply distracts from the bottom line. It was a bad deal.
  25. jorgenswest
    One thing I am less certain about is defense. I wonder how shifting, lifting and strike outs have changed the value of defense up the middle. I wonder if the measuring tools introduced earlier this century like UZR have kept up with those changes. Is it that surprising that Polanco had a peak year last year at age 27? Lots of guys have one of their best seasons at 27. His success at the plate likely has nothing to do with his position move. Is the burden on the ankles significantly different at SS than 2B? Is it more likely that it took a long time to recover to full health and that spanned the 2020 season? I hope the Twins need at SS is a short term one with both Lewis and Martin close. I don’t want a short term glove first SS filling that hole in 2022. I want to see Arraez, Miranda, Polanco and Donaldson getting significant at at bats. I want to see Lewis or Martin if the show they are dominating AAA. Playing a Polanco at SS can make that happen. I advocated for this move in November. It still seems like the right move now.
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