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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    There was a rule last year where players could only be called up immediately from AAA due to COVID protocals. There is a report of Celestino added to St. Paul in the window between his last Wichita game and major league debut. He never played for St. Paul but was likely there long enough to pass through protocol (negative test, quarantine?) before making his debut. I have not seen where those protocols are continuing this year so I would think a player could immediately move from any level to majors the same day. As for the Twins front office, I am not concerned about them being hesitant to move a player from AA. The last time this was relevant was 2019 and they moved up Arraez after he had spent just three days in AAA.
  2. jorgenswest
    Last year the Rays and Giants were two teams that found success while increasing the percent of at bats when their batters had a platoon advantage. You don’t see it in baseball very often any more because the roster spot for the short side platoon hitter has been lost to larger pitching staffs. Darin Ruf(34) and Austin Slater(28) are two right handed bats on their bench that produced an 1007 and 894 OPS against left handed pitching. They still see a lot of right handed pitching. Shorter starts ensure that in this baseball era but they still saw a much greater than expected ratio of at bats against lefties. The Giants bench allowed the the. options to tweak the platoon advantage in those high leverage situations. The Rays roster construction allowed them to see the platoon advantage in 62.1% of their at bats (3rd in baseball). The league median was 53.2%. They were second in runs scored. Would it benefit the Twins to devote of roster spot to a platoon player? Do they have in Garlick someone that can give them the advantage that the Giants found in Ruf and Slater?
  3. jorgenswest
    Smeltzer also has had a full spring training and that may make a difference early in the season.
  4. jorgenswest
    For some reason Rooker has not hit left handed pitching in the minors. The other side of the coin is that he has hit right handed pitching well. Very few batters have maintained a reverse platoon split through there career. If Rooker adjust towards a more neutral split and maintains his hitting against right handed pitching he has a chance at a Josh Willingham type career.
  5. jorgenswest
    This is often true for a season because of the sample size. It could be a four year temporary illusion or it could be that he sees right handed pitchers better. His string of OPS against mostly minor league left handed pitchers doesn’t suggest to me he would be a good platoon option. I would have more confidence in Garlick.
  6. jorgenswest
    Rooker bats right handed but he hasn’t really hit left handed pitching very well. He has reverse splits. Combining his majors and minors his OPS against left handed pitching the last three years are 714, 762 and 738. The Twins don’t need a right handed bat. They need a hitter that can hit lefties. Rooker does not check that box.
  7. jorgenswest
    Look at the performances of Wood, DeSclafani, Gausman and even Sanchez the year or two before the Giants signed them. They were all pitchers who had previous success as a starter but recent struggles and some injuries. I don’t think it was good luck on the Giants part. Their staff deserves the credit for finding that talent again and Minnesota must do the same with Archer and Bundy. It won’t be bad luck either if the Twins continue to fail to identify inexpensive pitching help.
  8. jorgenswest
    When the Twins signed Rich Hill I felt he would either pitch well enough or be injured. I think I feel the same way about Archer.
  9. jorgenswest
    Frankie Montas is one. Kenny Rogers had it in 2001 and was 75-39 in the 5 years following (2003 with the Twins). There are other success stories. That is not to argue that we should expect success. Several like Harvey and Hughes have not returned. My source is the Athletic.
  10. jorgenswest
    I wondered how many AAA starts young pitchers from the Indians or Rays see before their debut. Shane Bieber: 8 AAA starts Cal Quantrill: 13 AAA starts with SD prior to trade Zach Plesac: 4 AAA starts Aaron Civale: 8 AAA starts Tristan McKenzie: 0 AAA starts. Was sent down for 5 AAA starts in second season and returned with success. Shane McClanahan: 0 AAA starts Luis Patino: 0 AAA starts. Was sent down for 7 starts and returned with success. Acquired in trade from San Diego I would go with Winder with Balazovic and Duran not far behind.
  11. jorgenswest
    He did lead all AA batters in OBP last year at .414.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think it is a better plan than going with a Happ, Shoemaker, Bailey or even a Hill. If you sign one of those pitchers you are hoping to squeeze out one more year of health and back end rotation performance. If you pay one of those guys enough money is invested that you keep starting them in spite of poor results. Yes. Go with three inexperienced young starters. Be ready to flip them with some of the other near ready young starters in the minors. I would go with their upside.
  13. jorgenswest
    I suspect they are seeking a top 50 pitching prospect to headline a Montas deal. The Twins aren’t a good match here. They may not find that match and come back to the Twins but I would want prime pitching prospects for Montas.
  14. jorgenswest
    If there is a role where he can regularly get major league hitters out we need him in that role.
  15. jorgenswest
    Rortvedt was likely not ready to hit well enough this year if ever. If an automated strike zone issued next year does that change the value of a defense only catcher?
  16. jorgenswest
    This is the Jack Morris deal on steroids. I like how that one worked out.
  17. jorgenswest
    Really good move. There we’re 25 teams that passed on Petty and there is little data since to say they made a mistake. The history of the 26th pick produced one career star in Trammell and one very good career in Dave Henderson. Plesac was a good reliever for quite a while. Those are the three success stories in the 57 year history of pick 26. This is a very good trade.
  18. jorgenswest
    We also need to put a cost on the lost 40 man roster spot given to Henriquez. Henriquez on the 40 will result in someone being DFA’d that otherwise would not have been removed. Henriquez has almost no trade value because of his roster status. Similar players will be DFA’d and the Rangers likely assessed that they were going to lose him at some point this year.
  19. jorgenswest
    For his 236 innings at SS Polanco contributed 1.1 WAR in spite of below average defense. In 1360 innings Falefa contributed 2.3 WAR thanks to his glove. Polanco’s bat out trumps Falefa’s glove here in a big way. The 2019 line up was awesome because of the contribution of Garver and Polanco at catcher and shortstop. The 2022 line up with Arraez, Garver and Polanco would have been difficult from 1 to 9. Bullpens would be taxed and thinned by the last game of the series. The 2022 line up now looks to have weak bats at 8 and 9. I get the injury risk to Polanco playing him at SS and the injury risk to Garver. It is that the upside of healthy seasons from them that was the path to winning the central. Instead they chose the safety of mediocrity. The Rangers with Falefa as their SS for nearly every inning ranked 19th at SS last year. I would expect the same safe mediocre neighborhood this year.
  20. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are looking for a shortstop or catcher next off season I hope it is new leadership doing the search.
  21. jorgenswest
    Chris Bassitt is 33 years old with ZIPS WAR projections of 2.2, 1.8 and 1.6 the next three years. How long do we want to extend him? How much should we pay to extend to those projections or give up for the 2.2 next year? Kikuchi’s projections are similar.
  22. jorgenswest
    I guess it depends on whether they can sign someone like Rodon. A trade for Bassitt might move the projection by 2 wins maybe less if compared to signing Pineda instead. Is that enough movement to give up pant significant prospect?
  23. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it would be wise to give up prospect assets for one year of control. I suppose they could trade for Bassitt and then flip him for a hopefully similar return at the deadline.
  24. jorgenswest
    The high upside lineup play is to start Garver at catcher as much as reasonable. Perez led the league with 120 starts at catcher. That may not be reasonable. Aiming for 100 seems reasonable. Aiming for another 30-40 starts at DH will give him plenty of at bats in a healthy season. I suppose you could argue that they have a better chance at a healthy season and more at bats if he reduced his catcher load. I would still go for the upside. The Twins will need to hit on the upside in several places to be relevant this year.
  25. jorgenswest
    It was either going to be lock out now or strike later in the season threatening playoffs. I will take the lockout now. They will play eventually. Meanwhile I was was at a high school baseball last weekend. The close game was entertaining and hard fought. Baseball is a great game whether at the high school level or major league level. I don’t know if the advice about getting out and watching other levels of baseball was sincere or not but I will be finding a game and getting my fill.
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