jorgenswest

Does the changing environment of fewer balls in play, swings that lead to more fly balls and infields that shift with every batter also call for a change in the models we use to put a value on defense? Is it possible that elite shortstop play doesn’t contribute as many wins as it did 10 or 20 years ago? Perhaps the Twins value defense at SS too highly in this new environment. Polanco might be the answer.

I would put money into a top 2 starter and Buxton. Shortstop is a demanding position and unless they are elite like Simmons or Crawford they are often below average defenders in their late 20s. In this list there is only one player with a positive OOA at SS in Correa. Story and Seager ranked 27th and 28th of 36 qualified. Baez was 20th. The three will probably need to move the position before their contract expires. Maybe long before. Semien has already moved off and justifiably so. in 2020 Polanco ranked above Semien, Seager and Story. They already have Polanco at 2B and Donaldson/Arraez at 3B. There is no space for movement. My fear is that they will wait out the market and Story will be the last remaining, They will end up overpaying for a player whose best days at SS are well behind him bringing a bat that has been boosted by a .972 career OPS at home vs. .752 on the road, Unless they want to go after Correa I don’t think any of the others are a real upgrade over Polanco.

Gray at 30 is the only one of interest and I think the length of the contract he will be given may include too much of his decline. Still I can see him as a capable play off starter for the next few years. Grienke is too old. I think it would be unwise to ignore 2020 for DeSclafani and I would also add his most recent start to the data. He is only reliable until he isn’t anymore and some is going to pay for the isn’t. I am not buying high here. My preference is they either sign or trade for someone age 30 or younger who they see as a capable game 1 or 2 starter in the playoffs or they go young for next year. I wouldn’t commit multiple years to a pitcher who will spend too much of that time as a back end starter. I wouldn’t sign more one year stop gap starters while they kick the can down the road on development of their young pitchers.

The Twins need Ryan and Ober to be the top two. They will find corner outfielders. Pitching has been so hard to find.

It don’t see it as a Cave or Colina question. I assume they have some plan on number of healthy pitchers they project on the 40. If he is healthy it is really a question of Colina and the pitchers on the edge of the 40 whether that is Smeltzer or Thorpe or a waiver claim. If he isn’t projected to be healthy I get it. They have a few other injured pitchers they are carrying and he really hasn’t pitched since 2019 with the option clock started. Does this point to their intention to contend? A rebuilding team might keep a Colina and the upside. A team planning to contend needs to optimize those 40 man spots for players that contribute now.

I am thankful they have him next season. Good move a few years back to protect his service time in a season where he had an OPS+ of 5. For comparison Simmons has an OPS+ of 58 this year. He will sign if they pay up.

I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.

I don’t see how he would have any trade value. There will several fringe 40 man roster players available. I suppose a trade like the Wade deal is possible. I fear saying that because this is not a thread about Wade and some might derail it. The kind of return would be similar is my point.

Relievers can be hard to trade in the off season because there is often a good supply a free agent relievers. Why trade prospects for Rogers when you can pay a few million more and get a similar reliever without hitting your farm system? Teams would have to wait until the reliever market is exhausted before trading. This off-season is different though. After Kenley Jansen there aren’t any relievers as reliable as Rogers. Kimbrel might be non-tendered but the supply of closers is small. Rogers will have trade value. With the limited supply the Twins won’t be able to replace him with another free agent. That supply thing is a double edged sword.

I don’t know if it is this deal but this is the kind of buy low trade the Twins front office needs to find and win. The kind of trade where most on the outside will reject. They need to be better than other teams at capturing the upside of players like Torres.

When you sign an aging veteran to a four year deal you count on the bulk of that value to be in the first two years. He has performed as expected the first two years with a 125 OPS+ and starting 137 of 208 games. I would expect both those numbers will drop in the next two years. He is still a good player but relative to his contract likely a negative value. Those contracts are hard to trade in the off-season when there is also a supply of players in free agency, In two years that money will free up and the Twins can take another shot at a big free agent commitment

At the trade Eno Sarris compared him to Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. I think he had some video of how his fastball and arm action were similar to Petit. Let’s hope he is near the upper extreme with his effectiveness in that style. Can he develop the pitch mix to face batters multiple times in the game? Can he be as effective from the stretch as he is from the wind up? Can he survive a likely high fly ball rate and avoid giving up too many home runs with runners on base? I think he will have some growing pains but he needs to be at this level.

No to one year decline phase place holders.

I think we have been given the answer. We might not agree with the Twins approach but Ober has thrown more innings this season than any of his previous professional season. They are limiting his remaining workload both within games and days of rest between starts.

Hands are incredibly important to hitting and usually a lengthy rehab on the minors when recovering. He is doing that rehab here and it shows. When he was in the minors on his short rehab stay some wondered why he wouldn’t be up in the majors rehabbing given this is a lost season. His return this month is not predictive of his future and if the Twins front office use it to project his future value they will be mistaken. I think back to David Ortiz who suffered both a hamate injury early and wrist injury later in his time with the Twins. He did not perform well in return from either of those injuries and I think it led the Twins to project him as an inconsistent hitter that could not be counted on to perform well consistently.

I think they need to take the Mariners path. They need to be better than everyone else at identifying a Chris Flexen. They need to invest innings in young pitchers like Gilbert, Sheffield and Dunn. They need to identify the prospects in trade that will make an impact as they did with Gonzalez. If they go the free agent route it has to be for multiple years of control as it was with Kikuchi. The Mariners have seen success and have one of the younger pitching staffs in baseball. Maybe the best moves this winter will be one where no ones would have predicted success.

The Twins have proved false the often stated “There is no such thing as a bad one year contract”. The practice of signing stop gap pitchers to the rotation or late inning relief needs to stop. That gap only becomes wider the next year and the decline phase pitchers often found in one year deals are not guaranteed gap fillers. This doesn’t mean do nothing. They need to sign a free agent pitcher to a long term contract for the top of their rotation. They can make trades as they did for Odorizzi and Maeda. Instead of signing the Happ’s and Shoemaker’s they need to be better than every other team at identifying pitchers that have failed elsewhere and find that upside. They also need to invest innings into their own young pitching. If they can’t develop their own under control pitching they can not sustain success.

No. They do not have the pitching. It would be a mistake to try to sign several guys a bargain prices and hope to squeeze out one more year. Instead they need to sign one pitcher spending in the mid 20s per year. That would have been the cost of Berrios in free agency. They need to find the rest either in-house, in trade or be better than everyone else at finding a Chris Flexen. Someone that comes out of nowhere and is young enough with control to be counted on for a few seasons. I expected Falvey to be the guy that can find those pitchers. No more one year stop gap pitchers. They don’t plug the gap and it only gets bigger the next year.

Duffey will be 31 in December. This might simply be decline. The decline can be sudden for relievers. They often have one really effective pitch and when they lose a little on that pitch they don’t have anything else to fall back on.

Reading about guys shining like Leobaldo Cabrera is a big reason I enjoy these reports. He may not be a prospect but fighting back into affiliated ball through the Empire League after getting released by the Yankees in 2018 makes for a good story. Thanks to the crew that provides these reports. I really appreciate them.

I am uncertain about Dobnak’s status if DFA’d. Would it be more likely that he passes through because of the contract? Wouldn’t a team claiming him have to pick up the contract? I am not so sure his contract is a reason he stays on the 40.

A few September starts isn’t going to change his development. The Twins aren’t going to learn anything they wouldn’t learn working in the minors. I still think they should bring him up. They should bring him up because it will simply be more interesting and fun to watch the game. I would look forward to his few starts. The Twins are in the entertainment business. Ryan has earned the call up. Bring him up in September. Limit his pitches. Entertain us.

I hope the Twins take a seriously internal look at themselves and find the truth in what he has said.

While the market seemed hot for pitching it was almost exclusively better starting pitching than Pineda. I think it can be argued that Pineda is a better option than Lester and the Twins could have had a return of Lane Thomas. Thomas does have 4th OF potential but would the Twins have space for another OF on their 40 man roster this winter? Maybe. He could be a better to retain than Cave but is Cave someone that will be kept on the 40 this winter? Similar players will be available inexpensively this winter. Pineda might be a comp to Heaney. His ERA is better but Heaney has the better xFIP. Even if they could have substituted in Pineda for Heaney they are adding 25 year old AA starter Jason Junk who they would need to add to the 40 or expose in rule 5. I think the Yankees would prefer Heaney with his better health track record but maybe the Twins could have added another pitcher here. It seems at best the value of a starting pitcher like Pineda was a marginal prospect already on the 40 or needing to be added to the 40. These are the kinds of players they will find this winter DFA’d by other teams or exposed in the rule 5. I am scratching my head why a pitcher like Pineda or Heaney didn’t have a better market this year. Perhaps the supply of better starters brought down their value to players on the fringe of the 40 in return. Maybe retaining Pineda for two months has at least as much value.

I don’t know about Gore but the concept of buying low as the Rays did with Glasnow and Meadows should be considered.