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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    That is on Falvey.
  2. jorgenswest
    The bullpen is a critical part of a team. The Twins are not superior to the Guardians with this pen. That was foreseeable the moment Rogers was traded. They need to pay up and acquire a Rogers level reliever.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t think you are reading it correctly.
  4. jorgenswest
    Makes me wonder whether Jayce was advocating for this disastrous trade. The front office had to consult with him about Pagán and Paddack before making this move,
  5. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the insight and work. I do wonder if it makes a difference that Steer got the out and the velocity on that throw was sufficient. Do the brains of infielders and muscle memory help gauge the velocity necessary for a throw upon seeing a runner? Was his max velocity necessary on that play? I also wonder about the mechanics of the timing you chose. Did you time it similar to a catcher pop time so that the timing begins upon the touch of the glove? Is the foot and hand work necessary to get in position to throw taken into account?
  6. jorgenswest
    Nor do those who loved the analytics of this deal comparing the 5 seasons of control and WAR from Paddack and Pagán for one season of a reliever in Rogers. They should rejoice in the fact that the Twins get Pagán for 2023 also.
  7. jorgenswest
    I didn’t hear positive reports about his power either. Young players can be developed. If the Twins thought it was a possibility they would be investing fore than 3 of 29 starts into shortstop. Unless something changes where he plays shortstop regularly I don’t think we can think filling in for Lewis to start next season is a possibility.
  8. jorgenswest
    I just don’t see anything in Thornburg to suggest the Twins should use him in high leverage. He doesn’t get swinging strikes. His contact rate is high. Usually that combination goes with a really low walk rate but he has a high walk rate. Minny5 wrote about the slider but he isn’t getting swings and misses overall. The only thing I see is no barrels in a few low leverage appearances. Perhaps he is a soft contact pitcher but that usually goes with a low walk rate and ground balls when successful which hasn’t fit his profile. What am I missing? What is the coaching staff missing that some are seeing here? I don’t see a high leverage reliever I would trust in Thornburg. I want to be wrong. I appreciate his story of persistence
  9. jorgenswest
    Winder will be needed. Keep him ready in AAA.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins seem to be doing a better job of identifying and developing talent. Pick 90s rarely make the majors. Only 2 signed from that slot have more than 1 career WAR. Luis Gonzalez (51.6) and Sean Rodriguez (9.0). Cal Raleigh of the Mariners will be the 3rd. It isn’t much different with players picked 89 and 91. Steer is almost certain to be a major leaguer? It isn’t just Speer, Miranda was picked 74th and looks to be a capable major league starter. Speer and Miranda should give us confidence that the Twins can afford trade of prospects at the deadline. If they have a system that is among the better at identifying and developing talent than we can expect them to refill that pipeline from within.
  11. jorgenswest
    Fantastic outing from Smeltzer. Big hit from Correa. Pagán has regressed to the pitcher he was in San Diego. Command problems either lead to walk or fat pitches and hard contact. Early in the season he had a very high LOB rate that isn’t a skill. Now that it is around league average we see the pitcher San Diego tried to include in every deal. Twins ERA in the 8th inning is 5.38. That is on the Falvey. This shouldn’t be a surprise.
  12. jorgenswest
    He would help. He can’t be the best reliever they pick up at the deadline.
  13. jorgenswest
    In season it is so easy to be reactionary to the small sample of relievers. Beyond strike out and walk rates it is hard to project forward. WPA is not a stat that projects forward. xFIP relies on strike out and walk rates. Duran stands out with an xFIP near 2. They really need another arm to go with Duran. The best of the rest are in the low to mid 3s including Pagán, Jax and Duffey. Pagán and Duffey both have HR/FB rates well above career norms. That should regress. However they both have a history of giving up hard contact and a home run rate greater than league average so their xFIPs might be a little too promising. They might have someone in the roster that can join those three. Many of their relievers have a very small number of innings that no current data is helpful. Maybe Moran or Megill fits in that group. I would be shocked if Thornburg belonged with that group in the 3s. The last time he had an xFIP in that range was 2016.
  14. jorgenswest
    Which? They are allowed to move any of them. They need to move whatever it takes to acquire the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline as well as a Rogers caliber reliever.
  15. jorgenswest
    I guess I am not most people.
  16. jorgenswest
    Good point. I hope it would not change my principle.
  17. jorgenswest
    I can respect Wes wanted a different job. I have changed jobs. There was no dirty laundry. I don’t think we should expect there was dirty laundry. Unfortunately when no dirty laundry is found people will start making stuff up. I can’t respect leaving in the middle of a big project… in this case a major league season.
  18. jorgenswest
    Nice game. Pagán came up big. If they can add someone at the top of the pen he would be an asset in inning 6-7. Duffey pitched well. No hard contact. Ground balls. Contreras took away a hit that had a .970 expected batting average. He will be useful the next few years while he is on options. In that time he may grow into a fourth OF role.
  19. jorgenswest
    I hope they are able to acquire at least one reliever of the caliber of Rogers which is far better than decent. They need a few decent relievers also.
  20. jorgenswest
    Thornburg is almost 34 years old. He has pitched 64 major league innings to an ERA of 5.34 since 2016. Baldelli used his best options yesterday.
  21. jorgenswest
    As we evaluate the Paddack/Rogers deal should we consider the prospect cost of replacing Rogers to that evaluation? If they end up needing to trade a good prospect or two in order to get a few months of a Rogers level reliever is it still a deal you like?
  22. jorgenswest
    I would think critical to any analysis would be a comparison to other teams as well as a comparison to the performance of players previously picked in that slot. I would also wonder if some teams are more successful with picks after round 2 and that it might be due to their skill in identifying and developing talent rather than random as you suggest. Those factors seem so much important than an MLB ranking. Is there any evidence that MLB rankings have been a reliable predictor of future performance? As for Jeffers… he was picked in the middle of the second round and has more WAR than any other player picked in that round. Can I assume that every other team in that round would receive a lower grade for their pick in round 2?
  23. jorgenswest
    This is on Pagán who wasn’t good enough last night and pitched like his peripherals foreshadowed he would pitch. Ultimately Pagán can shake off any pitch and it looks like he shook off the 3-1 pitch. Pagán wasn’t good enough in 2020 for the late innings in 2020. He wasn’t good enough in 2021. His ERA looked good this year due to a very high LOB rate. That isn’t a skill. His FIP is 5.56 for this season. I expect he is better than that but not good enough to be part of a playoff bullpen. I guess this is on Falvey who traded the teams best reliever and now has to add to the cost of that trade by sending prospects to a team to try to replace the reliever they lost. A left handed reliever that would fit perfectly on this team. Whoever we evaluate this trade we need to add the loss of any prospects sent to try to fix this gaping hole. As Chief send… No team truly serious about contending would make this deal.
  24. jorgenswest
    I value 8 innings. Giving up one run on a sac fly with a 9-0 lead does not concern me at all. The last thing they need with a lead is walks. No walks yesterday, Gray’s 7 innings in a close game was probably better. Others commented on the atom balls. Average exit velocity for the game of 87.2 is below league average. There are probably a few hard hit outs in every game but overall he was not hit hard last night.
  25. jorgenswest
    It may have been the best start from a Twins pitcher this year. I guess maybe Ryan’s or Gray’s 7 inning start against Detroit might be better. Smeltzer also very had a good 7 inning against Kansas City.
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