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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If that is the case should the Twins have worked out a similar deal at 8 and 68? I like the three they chose but pitching is scarce.
  2. jorgenswest
    Keith Law lists two catchers in his top 10 for day 2. Ike Irish and Jared Jones are both high school picks so they would be a long way away from helping. Malcolm Morre, another high school pick, is listed among the best remaining in MLB. The reality is it takes longer for catchers to develop. They can’t really fix a current depth problem with a pick today. Jeffers was a 2018 pick. Few catchers have made it to the majors from that draft and no one has more WAR than Jeffers. They can help the minor league depth issue in taking one of the high school catchers but they may not be ready to contribute until near the end of the decade.
  3. jorgenswest
    I believe all three runners that scored got on base on a ball where Urshela had a chance to make a play. In the 4th Moncada hit a dribbler towards 3B. Urshela bare handed the ball but then his throw pulled Arraez off the bag. Moncada later scored. In the 6th Anderson hit a ball to Urshela’s right who gets a glove on it. I thought this one should have been an error. Moncada then hit a blooper down the line. Urshela chased it down and got a glove on it but couldn’t secure it. Both runners came around to score. Three earned runs credited. I think a major league 3B should the routine play and one of the other two on a typical day. Very good defensive 3Bs make all three plays. I thought in a typical Urshela day he would make two of the plays but maybe it is time for me to start believing the metrics that have him with a mediocre glove. He certainly did not pass the eye test yesterday.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am convinced about the pitcher. In a draft where no pitchers may go in the top 10 I think the Twins should go against the trend. There are pitchers in this draft that will be valuable major league pitchers. The Twins need to identify one and may be choosing from the entire pool.
  5. jorgenswest
    Thankful Bundy is still in the rotation.
  6. jorgenswest
    The third time through the order seems to be something the Twins really believe gives the batter a significant advantage as opposed to the first two times through the order. Why else pull a starter out of the game after 3? I guess if you have a bullpen like the Yankees had in 2017 you can count on your pitchers to make it to the end. The Twins don’t have that bullpen. I don’t believe the advantage is significant. I believe it is mostly the sample of batters faced the third time through that drives those pitcher numbers. If you look at it from the hitter perspective many have their best numbers either the first or second time they face a pitcher. If they have so little faith in Smeltzer to pull him after 3 innings then he can’t be in the rotation. It needs to be Winder or someone else in that spot.
  7. jorgenswest
    Unless they are willing to go big also I am not interested in marginal moves like this one. I am particularly not interested in a buy high when the peripherals are concerning. They need to focus their attention on the best starter and reliever moved at the deadline or they need to focus on the future as they did on the Rogers deal.
  8. jorgenswest
    Fair question. The focus should be on 2022 now but they will need to add a catcher this winter. That part of the question doesn’t need an answer now. As for injuries I would guess most teams would have depth trouble at catcher. The Guardians ran into depth trouble and picked up Sandy Leon for cash. He was recently DFA’d again. I would guess the Twins would have to do something similar if they were not confident in the defense of their AAA options.
  9. jorgenswest
    It was a really good take on the first pitch forcing Hader more into the zone with two on base.
  10. jorgenswest
    You must have meant Ryan or Gray. Bundy has the most innings pitched and the most starts with at least 5 innings on the staff. He has 11. Ryan and Gray have combined for 14. I don’t think I would want Winder in the long relief role. They don’t get used enough. It gets to the fifth inning and then the rest of the pen is used to get to the end. An effective mid game multiple inning reliever will be helpful.
  11. jorgenswest
    He is worthy of a roster spot. They should not count on him to be a playoff caliber late inning pitcher. They need to make some trades.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think Duffey had 4 relief appearances without giving up a run. He certainly was helpful in the three wins. That has to be a highlight. Bundy had the best start of the week against the White Sox and the best start of the Rangers series. I am thankful both are still on the roster.
  13. jorgenswest
    There might be an argument that Hamilton will be more effective than someone currently in the pen. That bar isn’t very high. The bar for the relievers they need is much higher. They need to add to the top of the pen.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is about command. Command isn’t only walks. It is also the hard contact from getting too much of the strike zone. I am sure he can reduce walks at the cost of more hard contact but is that a trade off that would lead to success? He hasn’t shown the command necessary to be successful in years. Why would the command return now?
  15. jorgenswest
    Sano has started his rehab. Unless he has a set back the Twins will have to make a decision with a week left in July. Set backs are not uncommon particularly those coming off a 60 day IL.
  16. jorgenswest
    It was a starting pitcher match up of two pitchers that were inexpensive free agents. Both put their teams in a position to win this game. The Twins had the better reliever for extra innings this time and it made a difference.
  17. jorgenswest
    The third time through the order narrative is somewhat a myth that is founded in the skewed data the third time in a row. The main reason pitchers have poorer numbers the third time through the order is that the data is heavily skewed towards the top of the order and the best hitters. Bundy has faced a batter a third time 48 times. The top 3 in the order account for 25 of the 48. The bottom 3 account for 6. With that skew it should follow that almost any pitcher is going to have much worse numbers the third time through. Looking at the data from an individual hitters perspective gives a different perception. I did this a while back and slightly more hitters (around 37%) did better in their third appearance against a pitcher. That isn’t very convincing that the third time through is meaningful. For example here are the top three in the White Sox order last night and OPS by times facing a pitcher. Anderson 945, 854, 658 Vaughn 515, 1133, 846 Robert 413, 835, 862 One batter does best the first time, another the second and the last the third. I don’t think that is meaningful for the individual either but it points out what I saw at the individual batter level data. It seems like the third time through is an established narrative from those that broadcast and write about the game. I believe the skew in the data is misunderstood by many and while there is a slight drop it is not nearly as significant as many assume. I added this to the forum if interested in discussing third time through outside the game recap.
  18. jorgenswest
    The team looks tired and maybe with good reason. They are well into a stretch of 17 games in 16 days. They had a earlier stretch of 18 games in 17 days that spanned May to June. As a result they have played 6 more games than Cleveland and Chicago. The answer just might be the upcoming schedule with some days off and the all star break.
  19. jorgenswest
    I can’t agree with the last part. I don’t believe he has trade value. I do think there is a chance his bat has value to this team in the stretch run. His upside as we saw in the second half last year is his only value to the team remaining. They need to make sure not to send him to rehab until really ready. They need to utilize the full rehab. By then we will likely be into August. If he is hitting put him on the roster. He will be valuable. If he isn’t hitting then release him.
  20. jorgenswest
    Why is cheap part of the equation? He is paid for the year. I am not interested in next year. I would not close the door on his bat as I believe he can help the last two months. Last year in the second half among Twins with over 200 plate appearances Sano’s OPS was second on the team at .847.
  21. jorgenswest
    I will still take it if it goes with health in the playoffs
  22. jorgenswest
    First he needs to get to rehab. That could be a few weeks away. He will need the full rehab and show he has his stroke. That could be after the deadline. I think he will return and be the Sano we saw in the second half. That Sano helps the team. Is there a place for that Sano? Absolutely. Look back at the last 10 games. You will find a couple games that a catcher was DH. You will find Gordon starting several games in LF with Kirilloff at 1B. Sano could have slotted in for any of those games. Urshela doesn’t need to play every day. There is a place on this team for another corner bat. Sano can bring that bat.
  23. jorgenswest
    Lopez looks like he would fit right in with the Twins bullpen.
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they should plan on any of them. Alcala has already had a set back. Ober adds depth but not a pitcher they count on to start a playoff game. They won’t know about Maeda until after the deadline.
  25. jorgenswest
    He started Tuesday. He would have been available until around Sunday. He has a few rehab innings in AAA since his return from the injury list. Rehab innings are not meaningless. They may well use Winder in the pen but his best use this week was starting the double header game.
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