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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I haven’t seen Martin play but the minor leagues is the place to try to develop your swing and risk poorer performance while making those adjustments. It is also the place to risk defensive errors while pushing a player towards SS. In Jeter’s first year and a half at SS he had 77 errors in 183 games. Tim Anderson in his first full season had 34 errors in 81 games. I don’t think I would close the door on SS solely based on those error numbers.
  2. jorgenswest
    In 2018-2018 his wRC+ were 109 and 114. In 2021 he had a significant back injury that might explain performance before and after the 60 day IL. In the outfield overall he has a positive career OOA(2) and UZR(1.3). Even in CF he has a positive career OOA. If his recovery from the back injury is full it seems like he can help a major league team.
  3. jorgenswest
    Sigh. I am not sure how your response fits. I was in total agreement with Chief when he made this statement prior to the announcement of the Rogers trade. As I read his definitive statement about Correa I recalled this similar one prior to Rogers. Merely pointed that out.
  4. jorgenswest
    I hope you are right. Seems like you said something equally definitive about the Twins trading Rogers.
  5. jorgenswest
    Seems like they can utilize him to start the second game of the double header in Detroit. He probably gets one start in AAA in between. They have another double header in June in the midst of 17 games in 16 days. There is value in keeping him stretched out and starting to slot in those games as the extra man. He also stays ready when the next injury hits.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think it is a fair question to wonder whether it is worth tendering Paddack. There are very few successful second Tommy John surgeries and look at the time between games for Eovaldi or Capuano or Clevinger or Rasmussen. I think those are the 4 success stories amidst forty some according to the Post. Did any return in less than 16 months? Eovaldi was August 10, 2016 to May 30, 2018. Capuano missed 2 years. Rasmussen had surgery in September 2017 and returned April 2019. Clevinger was September of 2020 and returned this month. It is unreasonable to expect more than one year of Paddack and by then it will be 5 years since his last good season. Is that any different than the usual fliers like Bundy and Archer? They shouldn’t look at him as any different then those two and I am not sure that is worth the cost of a 40 man spot the two off seasons and arb salaries.
  7. jorgenswest
    We can judge this trade on the success of our bullpen in the 2022 playoffs. Another factor in assessing this trade is the cost of any prospects traded to bolster the bullpen at the deadline. They gambled their best bullpen arm in the only season they are guaranteed to have Correa for a pitcher with a history of arm trouble and little success since 2019. Three years gave them a good shot of winning the trade in paper. I would trade that paper win for a run with Correa in 2022 playoffs. I was very disappointed with the trade at the time.
  8. jorgenswest
    For this game the decision to keep Miranda on the roster paid off.
  9. jorgenswest
    Ober is ready. Send him down. Keep him in the rotation. There is stretch coming up later in June where they have 17 games in 16 days. They will need him to be stretched out to contribute during that stretch.
  10. jorgenswest
    Is Larnach part of this argument?
  11. jorgenswest
    It might not be mental but playing through the pain likely altered his swing. It will take time to find the swing and get the muscle memory back.
  12. jorgenswest
    It is sorted by fWAR which gives a negative defensive run value for time spent at DH. Sanchez’ actual defense at C has been fine with a slightly positive framing number. The defense runs part of his WAR takes a hit because of time at DH. I wouldn’t have sorted by fWAR when trying to compare catchers.
  13. jorgenswest
    Is there projection forward value in that data?
  14. jorgenswest
    I am more concerned about the bullpen than first base and Arraez or left field.
  15. jorgenswest
    He is more ready to help the team than Miranda. He can help by serving in a utility role until Larnach is ready to return. Does he help more than Garlick or Celestino? He does if Correa is needing more rest to manage any return of swelling in his hand.
  16. jorgenswest
    My understanding of the situation is very different. My understanding is that he is hurt. He has hurt his knee. They are managing the swelling by getting him enough rest when needed. If the other option is to put him on the IL to recover I prefer this option. He has had a positive impact on many games since he was injured in Boston.
  17. jorgenswest
    They are managing this current knee injury with this schedule. Since the injury his OPS is over 1000 and he has been responsible for a few wins. It seems like a much better course than to try to fix it with a long stay on IL. I don’t know if this means they need to continue this path through the season. More likely it depends on the swelling in his knee. If it subsides he will play more. If not they need to try to keep him playing 4 times a week.
  18. jorgenswest
    Pagán maintained and even improved his command on day 3 of three in a row. Encouraging to see today. A bullpen arm that can go three days in a row without drop off has value.
  19. jorgenswest
    I did find today encouraging. He pitched three days in a row and his command was better each day.
  20. jorgenswest
    Certainly not. Colomé has had a better FIP in each year of his career (including 2022) than Pagán with the exception of 2019. In any given year that sample is small but over the term of several years Colomé has the edge 3.63 to 4.30. If we choose a sample most favorable to Pagán and only use 2019 on it is 3.93 to 4.37. You are right. He is not Colomé.
  21. jorgenswest
    I agree at this point. Let’s get close to the deadline and see where we stand. Maybe at that point a rental will become available at less prospect cost. Maybe Canterino or Balazovic are ready. Maybe they somehow stay healthy. Maybe either Archer or Bundy is pitching really well.
  22. jorgenswest
    My understanding of sample size is very different. Strike out rates and walk rates do stabilize earlier but you had OPS in the statement which is SLG and OBP. Those stats stabilize at 320 and 460 plate appearances. A partial season OPS is almost always from a small sample.
  23. jorgenswest
    It was the perfect time to push him and give him a chance to work out of a jam. It was the perfect time to push him towards 50 pitches. He hadn’t pitched in a week. The Twins win probability was 95% when he left the game. Imploding would have been giving Gimenez a center cut pitch to get a strike and watching the ball sail into the right field stands for a three run home run. He didn’t give in and ended up walking him.
  24. jorgenswest
    There have been some takes in a few threads that Jax was left in too long last night and Rocco doesn’t know how to manage a bullpen. I started to reply elsewhere but it fits better here. The Twins need Jax to be an arm that can give them multiple innings and up to 50 pitches. There are many encouraging signs as noted above that he can be that valuable piece. There was another game earlier this year where the Twins had a good lead he was in his third inning and over 40 pitches. In that third inning he loaded the bases and Rocco showed the confidence to let him work out of it. He did. Last night was similar. It didn’t work out as well but Jax needs these opportunities to get better. The Twins have shown confidence in Jax this year and he is earning that confidence. You can’t develop a pitcher if you don’t give them the opportunities to work out of their own jams and pitch through trouble near the end of their pitch count.
  25. jorgenswest
    Pagán doesn’t walk a tight rope. The Orioles, A’s and an umpire are holding a net for him. He loaded the bases against the White Sox and threw a 3-2 pitch off the corner that was not called a strike all night. There was one very similar pitch by Koepech to Polanco that was called a ball. If the umpire stays consistent and calls it a ball they probably lose that game. Same situation in A’s game but the 3-2 pitch is even further off the corner. Pinder swings. Is there any chance the Astros have someone on their roster who swings at that pitch? In two other games the Orioles and A’s had two runners in scoring position with the Twins holding a one run lead. Does he escape if it is the Yankees? He has made a change since last year. He is staying out of the strike zone where his pitches were clobbered the last two years. The result is more walks. It was a necessary trade off. He gives up too much hard contact when in the strike zone.
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