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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I didn’t wonder about likelihood. I wondered if it would be better.
  2. jorgenswest
    Assuming Gordon for Taylor in the line up against right handed pitching… How about Gallo in CF, Miranda at 1B and Gordon at 3B when Buxton is DH? Is Gallo enough of an improvement over Gordon to make up for any drop on the infield corners?
  3. jorgenswest
    My guess is most teams trading for a good starting pitch at the deadline lose value in the long run. Castillo, Montas and Mahle were the top starters moved at the deadline. They all might be losses in the long run. The Twins didn’t have to give up their best prospects or prospects at key positions to get Mahle. Steer and Encarnacion are corner players with promising bats and marginal fielding value. Should they have a need for that type of player in the long run they will be able to find them. I would make the same type of trade for starting pitching whenever they have a need and are buyers at the deadline.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don’t think there is anyone who thinks he is healthy.
  5. jorgenswest
    Concerns me. Even more so when I saw how little he played in the spring. The Twins are concerned too.
  6. jorgenswest
    Perhaps it was decided to not play Buxton day game after night game early in the season. Lefty tomorrow. I would have chosen playing tomorrow over today.
  7. jorgenswest
    Very different roles. Sands has an option. He can eat innings and then be optioned out. The Marlins needed that pitcher yesterday after the early injury. Coulombe would have to be DFA’d and probably couldn’t give them 60+ pitches. The Twins have several players that could fit that role. Winder and Henriquez are injured. Ober, Varland and Woods-Richardson are staying getting regular work as starters. It can be argued that one if those three would have been a better choice but I think getting a regular turn in the AAA rotation is better. We should see Winder for Sands in the pen soon. The wrong move may have been Pagán over Coulombe but I think Sands is the best fit for his current role.
  8. jorgenswest
    So many Julien comparisons to Arraez since Luis was traded. I wonder if Luis ever struck out four times in a game. I believe Julien will be a good major leaguer but I think his minor league numbers in context of era and league are a closer comp to Bobby Kielty than Luis Arraez.
  9. jorgenswest
    Coulombe contributed -0.31 WPA in his two years as a Twin. He doesn’t have options. He isn’t a long reliever and really was competing with Moran and Pagán. Cole Sands is the first of many to have the last spot in the pen. He has a chance to prove himself and move up the ladder like Jax did last year. Otherwise he will be long relief help until the Twins bullpen gets stretched and they need a fresh arm.
  10. jorgenswest
    If they are down 2 in the 5th that wouldn’t be low leverage. The win probability of the opposing team wouldn’t be that high. If the are up 4 in the 8th and he allows a few base runners the leverage changes and it is no longer low leverage by the time he gives up that three run home run. I don’t believe the leverage splits data says anything about Pagán. Leverage is fluid and his own performance can dictate a change in leverage. I don’t think it is leverage that is driving the numbers. It is possibly a result from his poorer performance with a runners on base and in particular when a runner is occupying first base. His OPS against with an inner of first (or 12 or 13) is much poorer than his career numbers. In all of those occasions he is pitching from the stretch. Is that this issue? He is OK until a runner gets a base. Putting runners on base will also often change the leverage index where his own performance is skewing that data. Maybe it isn’t leverage that is the problem but rather pitching with runners on base. Is there a valuable role in the bullpen for a pitcher who struggles with runners on base? Maybe. He could be an opener. He does have a reasonable rate of clean outings. He also has an unreasonable rate of outings greater than 1 run. The Twins would probably want to pull him as soon as he allowed base runners.
  11. jorgenswest
    if he can do well only on lower leverage why would that matter? How does that help the team win games? Who care if he gives up runs or not if the Twins are being blown out? This isn’t about Pagán having the appearance of good numbers. It is about winning games and they need pitchers that can pitch well in high leverage to win games. Is it possible he has simply pitched poorly? Is he responsible for creating some of those high leverage situations by allowing runners on base? Perhaps he allowed them on base when the leverage index was medium only to have them score once it had become high leverage after he had put them on base.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am interested to find out. I wonder if the importance of 2B lessened with the increase in strike outs and higher rates of fly balls. With infielders needing to stay on the dirt it is really going to help to have corner outfielders that can play shallow as well as infielders with range. BABiP will presumably increase with the shift rules making defense all around the diamond more important. On the other hand you want guys that put balls in play to take advantage of the restrictions on defense and Julien may be that guy. Can he hit enough to make up for defense that may be very poor at 2B?
  13. jorgenswest
    I don’t know how close the number is to reality but it does seem reasonable to believe that the Twins push the payroll limits more than most.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is an opportunity for Larnach to take hold of a regular role and keep it. It could be an opportunity for Julien also. The reports of his defense at 2B from the fall league were very discouraging and he may need significant time in AAA. If his bat is ready maybe they should start giving him time at 1B where there appears to be an opening. I also wonder if 2B is becoming less important that corner OF in the defensive spectrum. Maybe poor defense at 2B won’t matter as much anymore with so many fewer groundballs.
  15. jorgenswest
    Castro is younger than Larnach. He put up a really good AAA season and was rushed to the majors very young. There are plenty of examples of players being called up too young and struggle yet still find success in their prime. It happened with Escobar and Hicks. I have hope for Celestino. It can happen with Castro.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think Gordon’s defense at 2B is much better than Julien’s at this point. He must have been seen as better than Arraez last year. If Arraez had the better glove I hope he would have been at 2B last year when Polanco was out. Gordon’s career RAA of 0, DRS of -2 and UZR/150 of -1.4 suggest he is a little below average over 360 innings. Given that he hasn’t played a lot of 2B there is a chance that he will be better. I do wonder if 2B has been changing it place on the defensive spectrum. Can a good defensive 2B still prevent more runs than a good corner OF with so many fewer ground balls? I am not so sure. The gloves of Gordon or Julien or Farmer may not be as important as their bats.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe any real catching prospect is cheap. Teams need two good catchers and at least one other that is major league ready. They aren’t going to easily trade that depth. If Rodriguez could have been picked up cheap last year someone would have picked him up. Quero is probably the Angels third most valuable minor league prospect. The Twins third most valuable minor league prospect might be Rodriguez or Julien. The Twins wouldn’t let any other team cheaply pick them up. The Twins do need young catching and should be willing to pay up to get it. Quero is worth pursuing but it might take Julien.
  18. jorgenswest
    They need to find a position for Julien that he can play at a passable level, That might be 1B or maybe he hits well enough to DH. In the long run he helps so much more if he can play a passable 2B. We will see if they continue the 2B plan at St. Paul or if they move him to 1B.
  19. jorgenswest
    Was their point that 8 is a large number to be taken off of the roster and as a result fewer cuts were being made at this point?
  20. jorgenswest
    Sanchez must have had near the same mix of a pitchers. He was better than league average at throwing out runners and far better than Jeffers last year.
  21. jorgenswest
    I agree. Castro is younger than Larnach and his 22 year old season in AAA was very good and much better than Larnach’s AAA at 24 and 25. Since then Castro has struggled at the major league level after being called up very young. His positional flexibility and early promise give him a good shot at bringing value to a major league team. A better shot than White and probably even Larnach.
  22. jorgenswest
    This spring the better question might be “Can Edouard Julien hit enough to stick at DH?” If the answer is yes he should make the roster.
  23. jorgenswest
    I hope the pitchers with the most upside get the innings and reps of a pitcher in a starting role. I don’t think they need to prepare for a bullpen role by pitching out of the bullpen in the minors. The consistent reps are more valuable. The answer to the question starter or reliever is an easy one. If the pitcher has league upside of a high leverage reliever keep starting them in the minors. In this case the starts have to go to the pitchers with the most upside. After the top three might be Henriquez and Balazovic when they are healthy. There probably won’t be a day where the Twins top 10 starting pitchers are healthy so the Headrick, Sands and Winder will have plenty of starts. David Festa might find his way to St. Paul at some point also.
  24. jorgenswest
    My take was a little different. I interpreted it was the young pitchers will prepare as starters. That made sense to me as transitioning to a bullpen role is easier than ramping up to start. I didn’t think it would prevent them from starting a young pitcher in the bullpen if there was a need. Spring training stats are useless but I do think spring training performance does matter. We count on the skill of the Twins staff to judge that performance,
  25. jorgenswest
    Can we remember that these are men fighting to stay in the game of baseball? Concerned about their command or ERA or OPS or defensive ability or age. That’s reasonable. State the concern. They should no be equated with stuff in a dumpster or a trash heap or poo. I have had the privilege of knowing some men who have tried to fight their way through the minor league system. They have ridden the busses and moved from organization to organization and kept it going in independent ball. They are away from families for months at a time. Though the season ends their work doesn’t and baseball work continues all year As the Twins add new players let’s try to remember they are humans and not trash.
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