jorgenswest

Any other examples of a pitcher returning to success at 39 when their last good season was at 35? I wonder if this would similar to signing Archer where he is eased in slowly but never gets to the point where he can take the workload of a starter. If the Twins add pitching it needs to be at the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot.

The strange thing about Jeffers is he has a better career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher than left handed. The sample even on a career may not be significant but I think it is an artifact of batting near the bottom of the order and rarely seeing a right handed starter three times. Put him between two lefties and he is probably seeing a left handed reliever. I like Narvaez but I would go with the better defensive catcher between he and Vazquez. They have plenty of lefties that can pinch hit in a key moment late in the game.

D’Arnaud’s 2021 wRC+ was 78. He had a career high BABIP last year. He seems like a buy high and we would have to count on him putting up another over 100 wRC+ at 34 to make it pay off his BTV cost. His projected WAR is just a little better than Narvaez and Vazquez. Is it worth that cost? For comparison his BTV value of 13.3 is within one of Jeffers, Buxton, Thielbar and Rodriguez. The only one I would consider trading from that group is Thielbar.

As long as their payroll rank is near their revenue rank I am good. They do need to spend it well.

I don’t think Julien’s ability to play second base is near the level of Polanco or Arraez. Julien is probably limited to 1B with occasional play at 2B and 3B if they want his bat in the majors soon. The Twins need to have confidence in Arraez or Gordon or Martin at 2B if they trade Polanco.

Gary Sanchez was better than league average at throwing out runners. It wasn’t entirely the pitchers.

From the Mets point of view it was essentially a one for one deal for Joey Lucchesi. Lucchesi had a pretty good first two years in ‘18 and ‘19 before really struggling in 2020. The Pirates took a flier on a young catcher with just 22 games of GCL experience and a season lost to COVID. Kudos to their scout who identified him. The Mets took a flier on a pitcher who was close to league average their first two years. Kudos to the Padres who found someone to take their pitcher soon to need Tommy John surgery. All of that doesn’t matter now. Rodriguez likely will cost a little more than Jansen in trade. Which direction would be best for the Twins? Two years of Jansen or pay in trade a little more for full control of Rodriguez?

Those splits really take time to stabilize and even more so at the start of a career. Did you know that Jeffers’ OPS splits are better in games started by a right handed pitcher than a left handed pitcher (.688 v .648)?

The Pirates Rodriguez is a more valuable prospect than the Twins Rodriguez. According the BTV more than twice as valuable. Our Rodriguez might rank 6th in their system. The Pirates also have two 23 years olds and a 22 year old that were rookies last year and more valuable than our Rodriguez to add to those 6. Being a top prospect in the Twins system might not mean that much.

Would an offer like Ober, Julien and Enlow be enough? It is almost the value of Rodriguez in BTV. The could also offer Rodriguez, Martin and Prielipp which comes up a little shorter on BTV but gives the Pirates more upside.

This was the source I used but it must have changed. I do have a little more confidence that his back trouble in September is not as worrisome if the Mariners made that offer.

Weren’t there similar concerns about Koskie’s range and arm accuracy? They were certainly rewarded for taking the risk of giving him a shot a third. I think Miranda will do the work to play a passable 3B.

The Mariners did not make a qualifying offer on Haniger and instead traded a good prospect and reliever to the Blue Jays. Why not offer Haniger the one year deal and keep Macko and Swanson? Worst care they would get the pick. Were they afraid he would take the deal? Maybe the worst case is worry about his back. He missed a week with back trouble in September. It was his back that caused him to miss much of 2019 and all of 2020. Perhaps the likelihood of injury was to great to make the offer. They went out and traded two valuable players to get a right fielder they feel they can count on. Should the Twins be confident they can count on Haniger to stay healthy? If the Mariners who know him well won’t extend a one year offer should the Twins be offering 3 years?

The Twins pitching had nearly to lowest rate of ground balls at 40%. How would that impact team defensive metrics? The one team below them by ground ball/fly ball rate was the Mariners. The Mariners also had better DRS numbers in the outfield than the infield. Are you certain there is something significant to fix?

Julien’s arm is the issue and may limit him to 1B/DH. According to the Athletic he tends to double clutch on every throw. There are questions about whether he could play a passable second base. Maybe that can be fixed and he did play 3B in college. He has a lot of work to do in AAA this year.

He would help when healthy. Is the back injury still a concern? He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 with that injury. He didn’t go on IL last September but missed a week with back trouble in September. He did return to finish the season. The injury that knocked him out for over three months in 2022 was a high ankle sprain. Back and ankle injuries can return. If they sign him to a three year contract they should expect that he will miss significant time in two of those seasons and build a roster to account for his injury history. They probably still need someone like Kepler in reserve.

I would not consider extending Gray in the three year range. He is very likely to decline by age 35. He has more trade value at the deadline with an expiring contract. If he has a good year the Twins can make a qualifying offer and end up with a one year deal or a pick in the draft. We haven’t even started the three year part. He could get a significant injury this year after signing an extension. Gray just doesn’t have enough space to decline and remain a good option to start a playoff game. Extending Gray comes with much more risk than reward.

The closest pitching BTV to Guillorme is Paddack or Woods-Richardson. Would you trade either for Guillorme? Would the Mets decline and seek a deal from another team given Paddack’s injury status and Woods-Richardson’s inexperience?

Pagán is expected to make 3.7 million in arbitration. Can the Twins do better in free agency? Last off season three relievers signed in the range of 3.5 to 4 million dollars. David Robertson signed for 3.5 million and with the Cubs. He was a very good reliever last year and was easily moved at the deadline. Archie Bradley signed for 3.75 million with the Angels. He spent most of the year injured and had a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Adam Ottavino signed for 4 million with the Mets and had a great year with 2.06 ERA in 66 appearances. Why would a team trade for him? Wouldn’t it be a better risk to keep your prospect and sign a free agent for the same dollars? The only justification for retaining him is the Twins think he is better value than what they can sign in free agency for a similar contract. Alternatively they need to find another team that wants to pay him this contract and give up a prospect essentially seeing him as more valuable than any free agent they might sign at the same cost. I think they are keeping him. Once they settle in arbitration the contract is now guaranteed. I hope they are right. edit: To be fair Ottavino and Robertson had poor seasons the previous two years and their better than expected LOB% contributed to their numbers last year. The three are projected to have similar ERAs for 2023 ranging from Robertson at 3.80 to Pagán at 3.93. Would you buy high on Robertson (2 years 16M) or Ottavino (2 years 14M) and save the 3.7M on Pagán?

ERA needs a tremendously large sample to be meaningful. There is no way that a lower ERA in the second half is meaningful. It should be ignored and not even written about. The new pitch might be encouraging until you realize that it was rather same story going into the 2022 season. This is the pitcher equivalent of the best shape of my career. It is all about command. It manifests itself in walks and hard hit balls. Both are the inability to locate the ball consistently. It doesn’t matter if you get swings and misses when the ball happens to be located on an edge if you can’t do that consistently. Pagán has one year that looks really good in 2019. His most significant number that year was an LOB% of 95%. That isn’t a skill and not sustainable. Since then those rates have been 67%, 77% and 73%. Through April and May last year when some thought he had some special skill of getting out of jams it was 96%. In June it was 9%. Reality struck.

Miranda is projected for a WRC+ of 122 and Urshela 104. Miranda’s DRS and RAA at 3B were 0 last year and DRS was negative. He is young and can improve defensively. It is reasonable to believe they have a cost controlled top 10 third baseman in Miranda. 2023 is the time to find out.

Are we comparing Urshela to Farmer because they were moved the same day? If we keep Urshela don’t we still need Farmer or Kiner-Falefa or some insurance at SS? Looking at projections Farmer is projected for a WRC+ of 98 and Kiner-Falefa 93. Looking at two years of fielding metrics for Kiner-Falefa and Farmer gives a mixed bag. IKF is positive by DRS, is close to 0 by UZR negative by RAA. He is probably average and Farmer slightly below average. I can’t imagine that would account for a difference in runs greater than their projected bats. I would probably prefer Kiner-Falefa but that would greatly depend on whether I could get him for Legumina. If I have to send the Yankees an off the 40 higher upside prospect for Kiner-Falefa I think I would go with Farmer. Unless Urshela should be seen as a reasonable SS option the decisions about these trade seem pretty independent.

First credit to the previous administration who turned a rule 5 pick in Pressly into a valuable trade piece. The trade cost them the 2019 season. I will assume that he becomes a free agent and returns home to Texas in 2020. That 2019 cost was significant. First, possibly going with the myth that relievers are fungible, the Twins sign Blake Parker. He failed and was released. Later at the deadline they had to give up prospects for Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo. Do they need to do any of that if they keep Pressly for 2019? With Pressly are they the home team in the playoffs? Do they win a playoff game?

If Gray can make it through the early season without trips to the IL I think we will see him go beyond 100 pitches. If he makes two trips to the IL in the first two months like last year it would seem wise to take opportunities to limit his innings. Gray was upset being pulled from an August game against the Royals where dominated the first 6 innings and his pitch count was 92. Joe Ryan later in the season had almost the same performance after 6 innings (94 pitches) against the Royals. He was given a 7th inning and finished at 106 pitches. It was the 7th time Ryan went over 100 pitches, Gray never reached that threshold. I expect Gray will go longer in games in 2023 as long as he is pitching effectively and staying healthy.

I wouldn’t want Rogers in a closer role but I think he can be very effective late inning pitcher strategically used to face more left handed hitters. Take a look at the splits from last year or his career. I think he has the best upside of the three.