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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The run was scored as a result of… a 10 hopper just out of the reach of the second baseman a ground ball out and choice by Correa to get the sure out at first though it looked like he could have got the lead runner if that mattered a wild pitch advancing the runner to third another ground ball out an infield hit deflected off Duran a strike out with tying run at the plate He kept the ball on the ground. He didn’t walk anyone. Last night’s outing did not leave me with any wonderings.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree on “No to Dobnak”. For context though the International League ERA (5.26) is 23% greater than Dobnak’s ERA of 4.26. Relative to league that is slightly better than Chris Williams wRC+ that is 20% greater than the league. The run scoring context of the IL can give us a very different perception of the performance of Dobnak and Williams relative to the league.
  3. jorgenswest
    I would suggest that it is not worth the time wondering. It doesn’t matter. Let’s hope he comes back strong.
  4. jorgenswest
    It is easy to get for me to be encouraged by the performance of the Twins minor leaguers in the the July edition of minor league hitter of the month and sometimes less encouraged by the pitcher of the month. I looked for some context to go with that performance particularly with levels close to the major leagues. The run scoring context in AAA this year really distorts our perception of performance particularly if we are looking at OPS. There are more than 11 runs scored per game in the IL this year. The Saints are scoring over 6 runs a game giving them a rank of third in the league. They are 0.41 runs a game behind Louisville. Is it a surprise to know that relative to league the Saints pitchers rank better than their hitters? Pitching ranks second in runs per game at 5.07. I don’t think that rank of second fits with our perception of the Saints pitching this year. In this run scoring context it is probably gives even more weight to looking at contact rate and strike outs and walks rather than the triple slash stats that are so distorted. Wichita in the Texas League is also in a higher scoring run environment but not quite as high as St. Paul. Those numbers can give a distorted impression of performance also. The data we have available to look at from AAA and it’s run scoring context really isn’t very helpful in projecting performance in the majors. I would guess that the pitch level data the Twins must see is much more helpful.
  5. jorgenswest
    The home run context in this era is a little higher but in 1987 Bert Blyleven had a similar two month stretch. He gave up 22 home runs across 12 starts in a stretch where he gave up a home run in 14 straight appearances to start the season, Ryan is at 21 in last 12 giving up home runs in the last 9. Frank Viola in 1986 had 10 starts where he gave up multiple home runs. Joe is at 7 this year. Home runs are more frequent in this era. In 1986 the AL home run rate was 2.1%. It has increased by almost 50% to 3.1% of plate appearances in 2023.
  6. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs sees it differently. They have him number 11 among all staters.
  7. jorgenswest
    I simply wanted to comment his ball in play mattered. If he strikes out as I expected there and Jeffers doesn’t get to third.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think they have a few days to try to trade him also. He isn’t on the major league rster and I don’t think he is subject to the deadline. Anyone confirm?
  9. jorgenswest
    There are plenty of games you might ask this question but getting the ball deep enough to advance Jeffers from second to third led to the first run. He didn’t get credit for a sacrifice fly but we needed the ball in play there.
  10. jorgenswest
    When Kirilloff hurt his shoulder I went to baseball reference to see how often Wallner has played 1B. He has the size. I was disappointed to see he did not play there in college or the minors. He did pitch in college but has otherwise been an outfielder. He throws right handed and has an arm but no experience at 3B either. It’s possible they looked at him at first base and assessed it wasn’t a fit but they really need a Gallo alternative other than Solano while Kirilloff is out.
  11. jorgenswest
    Our understanding of sample size is very different. Pitchers don’t have control of the random variation due to sample. In a small sample pitchers can have the same skill, effectively throw the same pitches and have very different ERAs and BABIPs. They can only control how effectively they throw the ball.
  12. jorgenswest
    I wonder if including that his BAPiP in AA was .217 and in AAA is .398 would have added some useful context to the article beyond change of scenery. These kind of in season variances happen often even when the scenery has stayed the same. It can give the appearance a player has improved significantly. There is reason to be hopeful about Prato but patience is in order here.
  13. jorgenswest
    That is a real risk. However there is also the real risk that Gray or Maeda will come up with an injury giving them very little iver the Twins remaining control.
  14. jorgenswest
    Consider? Absolutely yes. If you are correct in your assessment about the return the Twins listen and say no. If Verlander is only willing to go to the Astros then the Orioles and Dodgers and maybe others will be competing for a small supply of starting pitchers. That demand may drive the return higher than your assessment.
  15. jorgenswest
    Relievers are no more fickle than any other position. Their stat line varies more but it is random variation due to their sample size. That small sample gives the illusion that they are volatile as a group. Teams can get in trouble trading for a reliever based on a half season sample particularly if there wasn’t success in the previous 3 or 4. Dylan Floro has ERAs that have a range that varies by almost 2 runs over the last 4 seasons. His xERA is very stable atlas’s than half a run.his xFIP is also stable with a range of 0.8. His strike out rates and walk rates are pretty stable. It is BABIP and HR rates that are not stable and that home run rate need a large sample. His HR/FB rate was unsustainably low in his good ERA season as his BABIP very high in his poor ERA season. Find a reliever with a track record of good xFIPs, xERAs, strikeout and walk rates and you will have found a good reliever. There is the chance that the small sample remains will get bitten by a high BABIP but that isn’t in the pitcher’s control and only in the teams control as far as their willingness to put up a defense that limits hits on balls in play,
  16. jorgenswest
    I am surprised Cleveland couldn’t do better. The floor on starting pitching is so low. The floor on first baseman is pretty high. I would have thought they should have been able to find a similarly ranked up the middle player or starting pitcher. I am glad they won’t have Civale in 24 and 25.
  17. jorgenswest
    Keep him.
  18. jorgenswest
    There is value in winning the central so I am not selling. The team as is can compete for the central. I am also not buying. They need too many pieces. I would make parallel moves. Trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda but get a similarly aged/years of control return that is a better fit positionally. Lopez for Floro was a parallel move. Lopez had that extra year of control but I am not sure they would have taken him to arbitration. There are a few veterans they might move without really selling. Gallo and Pagán are in this group. My strategy is to do little and compete for the central with the players on the roster.
  19. jorgenswest
    The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players.
  20. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if Keuchel is a playoff caliber capable pitcher. If the Twins believe he is they should keep him. They won’t get a return near that level and they need more playoff caliber pitchers. Keeping him means that one of the 6 goes to the pen in a high leverage late inning role. Maeda has shown he can be that capable late inning reliever but it has been a few years. Is it a role where Ober or Keuchel could be successful? Ober hasn’t done it but it would reduce an inning count that is already at a career high. Can Keuchel fill the need of a left handed reliever? While I am not a buyer at the deadline I am also not selling off any playoff caliber pitchers.
  21. jorgenswest
    He was recalled in 2022 short of 20 days.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Twins had no one close to matching Marte. They could not have made that deal. That was clear at the time. Maybe hindsight isn’t always 20/20.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am not a buyer this year and only interested in parallel moves that will improve 2024. Hader is a free agent. I also am not sure I want to pay for his decline in his next contract. The deal is a fair deal. If I thought the Twins could contend I would endorse it. Every team can use Hader though. Someone will offer prospects with better upside.
  24. jorgenswest
    I am not advocating buying this year. They can try to make a parallel move and trade Larnach for a player with similar age/control that is a better roster fit. This year is not the time to trade him for a player on an expiring contract or in decline,
  25. jorgenswest
    Willi Castro has 1.4 fWAR which is second on the Twins. He has very good defensive numbers at 3B. He really helps with his base running. They could do a lot worse filling in at 3B.
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