jorgenswest

We really have a different understanding of the math to get to that 13-9. They need to go 2-1 and then 3-2 and then 4-3 and then 4-3. Only a small percent of the paths to 13-9 take that path. It is much more difficult to get there by winning 4 series and they will need to be way more than kinda warm. The bar I think they need to pass is win 4 series in a row by the deadline. I suggested that bar weeks ago and still waiting for them to get there. So far they have managed two in a row. They still can do this in July. Win the next three series and I am in. Two of them are the A’s and Royals. If the Orioles trip them up next weekend they still have 5 series against losing teams after the break to win 4 in a row. If they can’t do it against the likes of the A’s, Mariners, White Sox and Royals why would we want them to trade off prospects thinking they can improve the team enough to win four series in a row against the best teams?

Why not again? It feels like I am repeating myself but it is four series instead of two and they would only open at home in the first of the four. This team hasn’t even won more than two series in a row this season. If they win 4 series in a row by the deadline I would be a buyer.

I strongly disagree with the anything can happen in the playoffs. This isn’t 1987 when the playoff conditions were very different. Home park advantage rotated and it just so happened that the AL West had home for both ALCS and WS (same in 1991). That was a significant edge for the Twins. You need to win 4 series in a row instead of 2. Some say you just need to go 13-9. While true it is a flawed argument. Many of the paths that get to 13-9 get cut off before you get to the finish. Start 1-2 or 4-4 and you don’t get a chance to go 13-9. The Twins have yet to win 4 series in a row this year. They haven’t even won three series in a row. They need to show that kind of consistency before they should be buyers. They have a chance. They have taken the Orioles series. Win the next three series and I am in on Goldschmidt.

Statcast keeps track of hard hits and Joey Gallo makes his living on his hard hit rate. It is a whopping .583. That is 100 points better than the next Twin (>100 ABs) Ryan Jeffers at .481. Of course he strikes out a ton. Many of his outs are whiffs and have no exit velocity. Should those be factored in? I wondered what the data would look like if the denominator was at bats instead of balls in play. The new leader is Ryan Jeffers. That was unexpected. Add in the strike outs and Jeffers is at .325. Gallo now ranks 5th among Twins with a hard hit average of .311. I was not surprised to see Donovan Solano near the top. He ranks second at .323. I was surprised to see the 3rd and 4th ranked Twins. Jose Miranda is at .318 and Max Kepler at .314. The only other Twins with a hard hit average above .300 is Carlos Correa at .308. The top three have less than 100 at bats and in Wallner's and Garlick's case far less than 100 ABs. I don't know if it is meaningful or more meaningful but I like the look of the number. It is more in the batting average range. It takes into account all of a player's outs including the strike outs. I don't know if it has a name so I called it hard hit average. They should consider giving that Wallner kid another look. Hard Hit Average through June 29 .474 Matt Wallner .357 Kyle Garlick .330 Nick Gordon .325 Ryan Jeffers .323 Donovan Solano .318 Jose Miranda .314 Max Kepler .311 Joey Gallo .308 Carlos Correa .289 Trevor Larnach .283 Jorge Polanco .282 Christian Vazquez .272 Edouard Julien .269 Byron Buxton .259 Alex Kirilloff .250 Royce Lewis .250 Kyle Farmer .239 Willi Castro .232 Michael A. Taylor

His average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel rate and hard hit rate are virtually the same as Miranda’s this year. They are both similar profile to Solano but Solano is a notch up in each of those categories. Can the Twins build on the strengths of these two batters who tend towards contact or will they they try to push them towards more power? I have been wondering about their ability to develop players with contact rate as ann area of strength since I saw how Austin Martin responded last year. I justified that Arraez turned out well but now he is really thriving this year and was likely under appreciated by the Twins management. They need to help Kirilloff build on his strengths and if that is a good line drive high contact rate hitter there should be a place in the line up for that hitter.

I honestly don’t either. For a long time I have favored power and on base over contact but I am wondering if that is still true in this baseball context of a never ending supply of relievers. It might be the skills of the players they choose to roster rather than their approach. They have the worst contact rate in the major leagues this year. They can’t change the roster easily. There are more of the same low contact players in AAA. The players that do tend towards contact like Kepler, Miranda and Celestino don’t seem to be thriving under their guidance. Even a successful contact hitter like Arraez has taken a stride forward after leaving. I do know that there isn’t a linear correlation between runs scored and strike outs. I did notice that the teams that have scored more runs per game this year have a team strikeout rating that tends toward the middle. Maybe that balance has value. I have a lot of questions and wonders. I know this isn’t working. I believe it is bigger than the failures of the individuals. I don’t think it can be fixed without making more contact. That can’t happen without a different preparation or approach. The first half is behind them. They ranked first in strikeouts. What can they do to move that second half strikeout ranking into the second quartile?

Maybe. There are bunch of players with a high strikeout/power approach. Does that work better in St. Paul. Isn’t that profile similar to the approach on the Twins?

It may take time for teams to adjust their approach? Without a change in approach and a trend towards more contact we probably won’t see a big change. Is the slight because all teams are doing slightly better or are a few teams seeing a significant change. Have the DBacks changed their approach? Their strike out rank is down. Their run scoring is up. Their team batting average is up 30 points.

Wallner’s strike out rate is certain to be much higher than Kepler’s. I guess they can be really all in with strike outs. Maybe they let go of Kepler and Gallo while bringing up Wallner and Celestino. I think they need to balance out the strike outs so finding a way to get Miranda back up also would help. Does the run scoring context in St. Paul really give us a misperception of performance? There are a bunch of players in St. Paul with strike out rates at 30% or greater but a good OPS due a power/walk approach. It works there in the higher run scoring environment. How well will those high strike out rates translate to the majors? I do think context rate is important and the Twins need more balls in play. Celestino and Miranda put balls in play. The Twins need that balance between contact and the strike out laden power.

If I tried anything for a few weeks it would to try to reduce strike outs and start more often the hitters that tend to put the ball in play. I would also be more aggressive on the bases in front of batters like Correa that tend to hit into double plays. Balls in play and running can energize a bench. Without the support of a study, I wonder if the volume of those strike outs are giving a boost to the pitcher and have a negative impact taking away some energy from the rest of the offense. There is no chance of stringing together a few bloop hits with all of those strike outs. In the baseball environment of the 90s there was almost no correlation between runs scored and strike outs. Is that still true in the 2023 environment. I might be worth the time to take a look. In a put the ball in play plan Miranda and Celestino might be the additions. I have been biased for quite a while by OPS driven up by power and walks. I wonder if baseball is shifting and I haven’t noticed. edit: A graph of team strikeouts per 100 games and runs per 100 games. The line looks similar as the 90s. If there is a relationship it may be quadratic. The teams that score the most runs happen to be more in the middle of the strike out list. They must have a balance between contact and power in their line up. If that is true in the new environment of 2023, how can the Twins achieve that balance?

Your main stat OPS+ is based on slash stats and they need a very large sample to stabilize. Would it be wise to devise a lineup for the rest of the season based on the first (almost) half of the season?

So many factors go into a pitchers path to the majors. Did they get drafted from college, high school or the international draft? Did they lose a season or even more to Tommy John or other serious injury? did they lose a season in the minors to COVID. Did it take them longer to find that second or third pitch or establish command? In Varland’s case, he went college and his first full age 22 season was lost to COVID. That puts him at 23 in his first professional season. I think it is pretty impressive and a credit to his hard work that he made his major league debut at 24. He has work to do and I think he will continue to do that hard work.

My criteria for an established pipeline. 1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer. 2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation. They are getting closer but not there yet.

Thoughtful work. Thank you. I appreciate the space for conversation here and hope that the Buxton conversation can happen here rather than nearly every post. I don’t think I fit in any of the categories. I certainly not happy to see him at DH only. I can’t imagine anyone would be happy including the Twins staff. I honestly don’t need more details on the medicals from the team. I appreciate that they are careful to protect the privacy of the player. I trust that if Buxton could play in the field he would be. I don’t need to know more.

I am with you. I need to see four series wins in a row before I am a buyer. Atlanta would be a big step in that direction.

Great job by the bullpen! Nice series win. It is time for the Twins to start showing they are buyers by winning the Braves series.

I find the endless debate about Buxton the same as the endless debate about Mauer. Tiresome and unending. In both cases I trust that the Twins management is going by the advice and recommendations of their medical professionals. I am OK with not knowing the details and appreciate any privacy about health issues they protect. In both cases aI also trusted that the entire staff would prefer Buxton to be in CF and Mauer at catcher. I also don’t believe these decisions were the responsibility of the on field staff. I likely am in the minority but in order to avoid this (to me) tiresome and endless debate I will need to do the same as I did in Mauer’s time and put those who can’t let this go on the ignore list. I would suggest they do the same for me.

Do you think the Twins medical staff incorrect in assessing that Buxton should not be playing in the field?

Seems like some moves coming based on watching game but not yet hearing any reports. De Leon must be headed to IL. They will need an arm to come back. Did Ortega leave yet? Is Buxton headed to IL? That would be u fortunate timing with his recent bat. Wallner or Larnach? Julien seems so far from playing a passable 2B. I even question whether his throwing action is even fixable. He must have had it in college where they also moved him around looking for a home. Does he need to go to AAA and find another position? You just can’t miss on double plays. Those misses cause long innings and the need to go to the bullpen sooner. His double rate in the minors was so poor and I question whether it can ever improve to a passable level.

His OK strikeout rate and very poor walk rate are virtually the same as last year. He has limited home runs this year compared to last but that stat is nowhere near stable at this point. His BABIP against is much lower than his career norm. It would be really unwise to believe his skill has changed based on an ERA that needs a huge sample to stabilize. If his strikeout rate were up and walk rate down he might be a consideration. With those the same I think the Rockies would be really wise to try to find a team to sell high. I don’t think Pagán or Gallo would be of interest as they would want a prospect. I would only be interested in trading prospects that are borderline 40 man roster calls for 2024… maybe someone like DeShawn Keirsey Jr. edit: I just checked his BTV value and it is 14.8 which suggests Lawrence is their most valuable trade chip on the major league roster. I have no interest in buying high on a reliever.

Maeda and Vazquez took advantage of the umpire’s strike zone really early on, Maeda only needed to throw 38 of 83 pitches in the strike zone to get to his 53 strikes.

They just split a 4 game series at home against the last place team in the AL East. This isn’t close enough to a World Series contender yet. It would be nice to see them win 4 series in a row. That is what they would need to do in the playoffs against the best teams. The best they have done is two series in a row this year. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. Some write that they just need to go 13-9. It should be added that they have to go 13-9 while winning 4 series in a row. Start out 1-2 or 4-4 and they are done. They don’t get the opportunity to get to the 13-9. They should hold for now neither selling or buying. If they can win 4 series in a row by July 30 go ahead and go for it. Be a buyer. Otherwise I think they should sell off their expiring contracts. Winning the central is not enough to sell the future. For now, if they were to move on from Kepler, Gallo or Pagán I would not consider that selling.

The ace of the staff.

Big hits from Farmer, Kepler, Vazquez and Buxton. Shut down inning from Moran. Let’s do it again tomorrow.

After the Rays series I said I am a seller short of them going 29-15 or better up until the deadline. I think I also framed it the best in the AL in that time period. They started strong against Toronto and Milwaukee and have revealed their mediocrity since. I may define contention differently. Contending for the AL Central is not enough. They need to show they can contend in the playoffs. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. They would need to win 4 consecutive series. The best they have done during the season is winning two consecutive series. They haven’t shown anything close to a team that can win 4. I would hold fast for now. There are of series a true playoff contender should win up to the deadline. Go dominate the next 20% of the season. Holding fast means I am not trading Gray for now. If Kepler or Gallo or Pagán are moved I wouldn’t see that as being a seller.