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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Jeffers and Julien had the two key at bats with runners on third and less than two outs. Both had their least competitive at bats that I have seen in a while. Learn from it and be better in the next opportunity.
  2. jorgenswest
    As for the premise of the title I think Wallner has always been in the plans. They saw his strike out rate drop significantly in the second half of his AAA stint this . I am sure he was putting in work defensively. He simply passed Larnach up due to his efforts. They were and are both in the plans.
  3. jorgenswest
    Not sure about 2022. I don’t think he ever reached 20 day threshold in minors after option. It might not take finagling.
  4. jorgenswest
    Carlos Correa has 51 plate appearances with a runner on first(only) and less than 2 outs. In those 51 plate appearances he has 9 strikeouts, 6 walks, 1 HBP, 1 double, 1 home run and hit into 15 double plays. The most frequent outcome is a double play. That isn't surprising as he hits right handed, frequently makes solid contact and isn't very fast. Those factors aren't going to change. It makes me wonder how often the Twins have tried to steal a base in those situations. I can't recall any. I think they need to view each of those grounded into doubles plays like a caught stealing. With Carlos up they need to be more aggressive stealing a base. Even a 70% success rate is probably preferable to staying on first with the likelihood of being the front end of a double play. Julien stole bases in the minors. They need to send him. They batted Correa first for a while. If they do that they need to put speed at the bottom and send them. If anyone knows how to find it I would like to see how often they have tried to steal in this situation.
  5. jorgenswest
    To add… Severino’s strike out rate has dropped quite a bit also. In July it was 24% where it started in the mid 35s. He also earned his recent promotion.
  6. jorgenswest
    A good example… Through May Wallner’s strike out over 33%. In June/July before he was called up it was 22%. Strike out stabilizes early so the change is significant. It seems like he did the work to earn that opportunity.
  7. jorgenswest
    Agree on Farmer. He turns 33 this month. As a third year arb he will be due a nice boost from his 5.585 million. His increased salary will be at the point where they would be reluctant to release him. Twins have more depth at SS than a year ago when they traded for him. At that time they hadn’t signed Correa, Lewis would miss the start of the year and Brooks Lee was at least a year away. I would not pay more for his decline.
  8. jorgenswest
    Uncle Lenny
  9. jorgenswest
    I think part of the challenge is the run scoring context of the International League can distort perception of performance. Chris Williams has a wRC+ of 118. Relative to the league Randy Dobnak’s ERA is better with an ERA+ of 121 which is close to Stevenson’s wRC+ of 123. Camargo is 93. I wouldn’t be advocating for Dobnak’s addition to the team. The average OPS in the IL this year is above 800 and the average runs per game is greater than 11. That isn’t close to the run scoring context in the major leagues.
  10. jorgenswest
    Pretty easy to make up… Head over to Fangraphs WAR and Lopez is up 3.3 to 3.2. Lopez ranks 8 among starting pitchers.
  11. jorgenswest
    Arizona is among the league stolen base leaders as are Kansas City and Oakland. The one team that utilizes the stolen base that could be an AL playoff opponent is Tampa Bay. They rank second but they also rank first in caught stealing with 34. Arizona has been amazing and only been caught 17 teams. I am not sure how much it has helped them win games though. If this is a weakness I don’t think it is the weakness that will cost them a playoff series.
  12. jorgenswest
    Concur
  13. jorgenswest
    Looking forward to the central title and playoff series win.
  14. jorgenswest
    They need to be willing to use the IL with Kepler even if it appears day to day. He did not finish well last year on a bad foot. Today is another lefty. They probably planned an off day for him. If he can’t go tomorrow they should put him on the IL and utilize their depth.
  15. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised. I also never worry about the long term. They have 11 non catching position roster spots and another usually around 4 more guys that will approach 100 PAs. There is plenty of space for good hitters.
  16. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Looks like velocity was in the 90-91 range on the 4 seam fastball and 92-94 on the sinker yesterday. I didn’t bring up Bautista but replied to another post how the two had similar stats as relievers in the minors. That kind of AAA success for a reliever is not uncommon but from my one game look it appears the tools that Bautista and Funderburk used to get there are pretty different.
  17. jorgenswest
    Cleveland added him
  18. jorgenswest
    Concur with paragraph 2.
  19. jorgenswest
    He is worth a shot but you have to wonder why there were no takers at the deadline. It could be his significant drop in performance since return from his 80 day PED suspension. It could also be his frequent injuries with two stays in IL this year (groin, fractured hand).
  20. jorgenswest
    If Funderburk averages 100 mph on his fastball combined with a plus second pitch like Bautista’s split finger they need to bring him up. I don’t have access to pitch level data and the relief pitcher data we can see isn’t helpful in knowing whether he will be successful in the majors. Those kind of numbers for relievers in the minors are not uncommon. The Twins have much better data besides working with him first hand.
  21. jorgenswest
    WHIP and ERA are useless for prediction. So many other measures will tell the story long before they stabilize. The question is whether the time off to regain health and the time at driveline has helped him regain effectiveness. There might be some insight from yesterday’s game and his minor league stint to answer those questions. I don’t know where to see minor league pitch level data but the Twins have it. I suspect it was not that encouraging or they would have found a way to roster him without the Ryan injury. If we can see an answer with what is available to us I suspect we will see it with what the OP posted or maybe here first (perhaps in the pitch tracking section).
  22. jorgenswest
    An ERA of 1.80 is very sustainable… and meaningless short of a full season. Hits also need a large sample so it will be a long time before a WHIP is meaningful. One games WHIP (or several games) is not predictive of the next game at all. Neither is one games ERA. Velocity and some other pitch level data can give some insight for the next game.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don’t think his performance is that uncommon. Seems like they have a reliever like this every year in AAA. Last year it was Evan Sisk with virtually the same WHIP, good strikeout rate and poor walk rate. Ian Hamilton has had seasons like this as a minor league reliever. The small sample stat line for a minor league reliever isn’t very helpful in guiding roster decisions.
  24. jorgenswest
    He has been hitting the ball harder most of the year but the hits didn’t come until July. He is pulling the ball more often again. I wonder if the shift caused him to try to hit the ball to the opposite field and instead of good contact to the opposite field he ended up with weak contact too often. He is best when he is pulling the ball and hitting it hard. On June 29 I wrote about the Twins and hard hits as a ratio of at bats. Jeffers was the Twins leader given Wallner’s small sample but Kepler wasn’t far behind. The three have done quite well since.
  25. jorgenswest
    Their options were Keuchel and Varland. I am not sure which is the better choice but going with Keuchel gives them Varland in reserve should another starter go down in August. Keuchel was the way to go and as long as he keeps the ball on the ground I would stick with him until Ryan returns healthy.
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