jorgenswest

The Twins need to add a starter to the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot. If they can’t do that in trade then I would risk the younger pitchers in the bottom of the rotation over Wacha.

Are we buying high? Projections are often based on three years. How do the three year comparisons look?

Kepler has value to a team in need of a right fielder. I don’t think the Padres are a match. How about trading Ober and then sending Kepler to Rockies for Marquez?

Two possible matches from BTV. One with a major leaguer and the other a prospect package. Bailey Ober straight up? Julien, Woods-Richardson and Canterino?

I count Ryan. Cleveland’s initial pipeline was made up of players acquired in trade. Some like Ryan were not global top prospects.

I don’t disagree with anything you said. I simply think the injury risk created the opportunity to get an impact pitcher without needing to give up a global top prospect. I think that Correa comes with that same opportunity. It is a reasonable argument that the mid to small market Twins can’t afford to take these risks. I am on the other side. I would take the risk of signing Correa and if they are in first place at the deadline next year I would prefer the injury risk of the impact pitcher over a more reliable middle of the rotation pitcher.

I think they knew the injury risk. If he were completely healthy they can’t get him without a global top 50 prospect. They didn’t even need to give up a global top 100. They took the risk in trying to get a starter at the top of the rotation and lost. They didn’t have the prospect capital to get Castillo and maybe should not have spent it if they did. After that I think it was better to trade for Mahle or Montas and risk the injury as opposed to a pitcher that is a borderline playoff starter. If the opportunity comes up again this summer I would take the higher risk on the injured player over more certainty of a number 3-4.

I am having a hard time buying the narrative about acquiring injured players. On Mahle… Are we suggesting they trade for players with no injury history? Montas, Castillo and Mahle were the best starters moved at the deadline. All three had time in the IL. Mahle’s was recent but Montas also missed time in July. There were only 40 starters last year with at least 30 starts. Perhaps they should limit themselves to that group. Actually we need to make the group smaller. There are pitchers in that list that have have had Tommy John surgery or missed significant time in 2021. They are a risk of getting injured again. Eventually you get down to Gerrit Cole. Maybe they should trade for him. On the other hand sometimes it is the injury risk that makes that talented player available in the first place. Sign Correa. Expect he will miss time for injury. The reality is that missing time due to injury is the norm. It is the injury risk that makes Correa and his elite talent available to a small/mid market team like the Twins.

Sorry about that. I read the two statements as one thought. I shouldn’t make those assumptions.

The Twins have made many trades in the last year. I don’t think they would be in a group of teams afraid to lose trades. If they keep him it will be because they value his contribution over the return.

Are there special qualifications for a first ballot Hall of Famer? What can a player possibly do between his first and second year to earn the vote? I do get that in your first year the ballot may be crowded with several worthy names and you don’t make it. That doesn’t seem to be the case next year. Mauer is either worthy of the Hall of Fame or not. Any voter who would vote for him the second year but leave an open spot on the ballot in the first should lose their privilege.

If the medicals were completely clean would it be reasonable to expect a healthy 10 years on the investment? I wouldn’t think so. In a decade of play nearly everyone will have a significant injury or two. These medicals open the door for a team like the Twins to win this deal. Give him that contract. We don’t need 10 great years from it. We need a great year from Correa to coincide with a great year from Buxton where both are healthy for the playoffs.

14 players had over 600 at bats. You did say closer though so make it 550 and you find 48 players. That is less than 2 players per team. I do believe Kepler will benefit more than most but many hitters will get a few more hits. He really needs some power to return. Did he lose it trying to beat the shift? I wonder if his failed attempt to change as a hitter and beat the shift took away what his strength as a hitter. He needs to go back to hitting the ball hard to the pull side. Maybe he will do that when the second baseman isn’t standing in right field. The reality is no one knows how batters will benefit and teams will adjust. Players like Kepler and Gallo seem like they would benefit the most. How much and who? Getting that right is a critical piece for every front office.

Arraez batted first 91 times. Buxton led off 50 times. No one else more than 7. You could probably make the same comment about Buxton leading off for almost any other team.

Maybe this is the opportunity for the Twins to sign an elite free agent long term. If there are no health concerns they can’t match the Giants or the Mets. It is a huge risk to sign him but could come with a huge payoff.

A little more than 28% of the Twins plate appearances were against left handed pitching. The Twins faced a left handed starter in 49 of 162 games (a little over 30%). Devers trade value is about the same as Ryan and Duran. Over his career he is at best mediocre against left handed pitching. I think a right handed bat in the outfield is a better fit.

Guillorme from the Mets is stuck behind Lindor and Correa. He gets on base and has shown an average glove. He also bats left handed in a platoon fit with Farmer. Intrigue is too strong but I would be more interested in Guillorme as a fit for the Twins.

Encore? Play SS at an adequate level and be the strong side of the platoon with Farmer. Is it feasible? Maybe. Assessments about his play at shortstop were made when he was dealing with a string of health issues that left him weak in the plate and the field.

For this to work the Twins need to take on the contract and get the better of prospects in return. If the Giants add someone in their 5-7 range like Carson Whisenhunt in return for someone like Sabato or Enlow it is a deal that could make sense given the roster position they are in today.

If a team were interested in a left handed bat that is a good defender in right field why not sign Joey Gallo and keep their prospects? The salary isn’t that different. Any team that would trade prospects to take on Kepler’s contract could have signed Gallo instead. It seems like the trade match for Kepler is a team that needs to offload some salary and take back Kepler. Would the Giants want to save some dollars by exchanging Crawford for Kepler and then adding a few prospects? How about Doctor Gast’s suggestion of a straight up deal for Marquez saving the Rockies some money? Where else can the Twins add a helpful piece for the short term by taking on a salary and maybe getting some prospects in return?

Signing either to a long term contract will not only be this years big commitment but also the big commitment for the next several years. Is either that pivotal player? They aren’t going to be signing a 25-30 million free agent every year.

Maybe not excel but a career .350 OBP is helpful. As for significant track record I am not so sure. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats. On base percentage at 460 PAs. He only has 371 PAs against left handed pitching. He also is moving into what are typically his peak seasons. I am not as confident the gap between the two won’t get closer. In Tony Gwynn’s age 23-25 seasons the OPS split gap ranged from 102 to 192. It ended much closer.

If you are interested you can look up Bill James similarity scores. For me it is fun to look at. Arraez really stands out as unique. For any other Twin you find their list to be filled with many current players because the context of the era matters for similarity. I took a look through Twin batters last year that have played for at least a few seasons and I have seen nearly all of those guys of the similarity list play baseball. Arraez is truly unique. Fun to watch and a fun list of similar players. I think his uniqueness will help him sustain a long career of success. This may be the peak but I expect a long plateau.

Great question. Has he peaked? That sent me to Baseball Reference to look at similarity scores to find he has time traveled from another era. Most similar through age 25? 1) Fred Tenney. Who? He started his career in 1894. 2) Jo Jo Moore. I have heard of thanks to playing APBA with a 1938 card set as a kid. 3) Roger Bresnahan. Hall of Famer overlapped Tenney’s career. 4) Ethan Allen. 1930s. 5) Arnold Statz. Who? I played his 27 APBA Season. No recall of him. 6) Sam West. See Jo Jo Moore and Ethan Allen. My hope was to look at this list of similar player through 25 and see what the rest of their careers looked like. The good news is that totter than Statz they maintained their skills wellI to their 30s. I hoped to see an increase in power but I didn’t. Not sure this means much since they played centered around 100 years ago. The next guy I have seen in person. 7) Tony Gwynn. and then back in time to guy who started his career in 1872 8) Jim O’Rourke. Hall of Fame. 9) Gene Robertson. See Arnold Statz. and former Twin I have seen play 10) Rich Rollins. Huh? No Rodney? Rollins is the only player on this list still living. I think he took a ball to the head around 25 and I wonder if that altered his career. Three Hall of Famers. Three that peaked around age 25. Four others with very long successful careers. Not sure it means anything. I think I would bet on him having a long successful career doing what he does best. Get on base.

Is it possible that he plays RF because he is really good at it particularly in Target Field? Maybe he is somewhat better than Gordon in CF but a lot better in RF. Maybe keeping him in RF is better for the overall defense.