jorgenswest

This spring the better question might be “Can Edouard Julien hit enough to stick at DH?” If the answer is yes he should make the roster.

I hope the pitchers with the most upside get the innings and reps of a pitcher in a starting role. I don’t think they need to prepare for a bullpen role by pitching out of the bullpen in the minors. The consistent reps are more valuable. The answer to the question starter or reliever is an easy one. If the pitcher has league upside of a high leverage reliever keep starting them in the minors. In this case the starts have to go to the pitchers with the most upside. After the top three might be Henriquez and Balazovic when they are healthy. There probably won’t be a day where the Twins top 10 starting pitchers are healthy so the Headrick, Sands and Winder will have plenty of starts. David Festa might find his way to St. Paul at some point also.

My take was a little different. I interpreted it was the young pitchers will prepare as starters. That made sense to me as transitioning to a bullpen role is easier than ramping up to start. I didn’t think it would prevent them from starting a young pitcher in the bullpen if there was a need. Spring training stats are useless but I do think spring training performance does matter. We count on the skill of the Twins staff to judge that performance,

Can we remember that these are men fighting to stay in the game of baseball? Concerned about their command or ERA or OPS or defensive ability or age. That’s reasonable. State the concern. They should no be equated with stuff in a dumpster or a trash heap or poo. I have had the privilege of knowing some men who have tried to fight their way through the minor league system. They have ridden the busses and moved from organization to organization and kept it going in independent ball. They are away from families for months at a time. Though the season ends their work doesn’t and baseball work continues all year As the Twins add new players let’s try to remember they are humans and not trash.

Isn’t Santana’s signing similar to that of Ortega? For a few days there was some angst about his spot on the 40 and then he was off the 40 and outrighted having been unclaimed. Santana doesn’t stop them from adding Hand or anyone else. If they are interested in Hand why not use that spot to try to add organizational depth first?

I listened to the game so others who saw it might comment differently but Alacala’s inning started with a ground ball to Miller that he stumbled getting to. It was ruled an infield hit. He followed with a walk and then ground ball out and another ground out. If Miller doesn’t stumble on the first ball it could have been 0 earned runs and our perception might be different though his pitching was identical for those 4 batters. My recollection is that the defense behind Sands was shaky in the outfield.

Balazovic May only have a few months to make it before the Twins have a 40 man roster need. Cavaco and Sabato followed by Soularie should have been knocking on the door to the 40 due to rule 5 status this winter. Rodriguez, Martin and Salas are givens. Ricardo Olivar could make some more noise. Alejandro Hildalgo might be the only possible pitcher. This is a pretty small group to consider relative to other years. They really need Cavaco or Sabato to step up.

Pagán can miss bats. He can pitch on back to back days. I don’t buy that low leverage roles exist in the pen with the exception of a pitcher in a role where they are shuttled back and forth. He does need a role that adds value to the staff. If that role only exists in low leverage they need to move on. That role might be on where he starts an inning as often as possible. He had a lot of clean outings last year as well as too many innings giving up more than 1 run. Following the starter and giving them a clean 6th or 7th inning 2/3 of the time will add value.

If anything he outperformed expectations. It was his best ERA, FIP and xFIP since 2019. I strongly disagree that the problem is between his ears. He seems to work hard and learn. He is constantly trying to find a new pitch or refine a pitch. He has trouble with command. That is a talent. He either misses the plate or hits the heart of the plate. There are too many walks and too much hard contact. He also shows the ability to miss bats when he happens to hit his spots. My guess is he probably won’t improve in that skill enough. Even then there is the possibility he has a 90% or better LOB rate and the numbers look good.

The bat relative to the team is outstanding. He was so much better than anyone else on the team with over 100 PAs. The team OPS was .685. His was 1.047. On the other hand his ability to throw out base stealers relative to the team was poor throwing out only 7% in the FCL. That is consistent with his poor numbers the previous season. Endy was throwing out 44% and 31% at a similar place in his career. If we are going to compare the two I think we need that data.

Isn’t that what they did last year? They played him exclusively at 2B. In his first year they did move him around and probably eliminated LF and 3B. He was primarily a DH his first year at Auburn getting looks at a few different spots. They had him exclusively at 3B his second year. I think the Twins and Auburn tried to do what you suggested. Once they had a look at him they gave him one position. He still needs to come through and show some progress honing those skills given that chance. If the Twins want him on the field they need to give him a full year of AAA at 2B because he isn’t close to ready and not near Arraez level at the position.

Are defensive metrics to the point where the year to year variance is low enough that we can use the previous season to project the next season? If there is a drop from one season to the next are they reliably indicative of a change in skill or is it just as likely random variation?

Would you trade Ryan and Duran? The Twins would improve the 23 and 24 teams and have an ace if they make the playoffs. They give up a lot of years of control beyond the 2 they get from Burnes. If the Brewers are looking for prospects the Twins probably can’t compete with other teams. They don’t have elite prospects or any really good pitching prospects to send. Lee, Lewis and Rodriguez would make it about even according to BTV but I think the Brewers would look for a better headliner or at least one that is a top pitching prospect.

I am pretty sure we can’t count on the stingy with the long ball part. His HR/FB rate of 9.5% is based on 42 fly balls (stabilization rate is 400). Look at his HR/FB rate and it varies tremendously due to his many small samples. In 2021 with the Cubs it was 24.1%. In AAA with St. Paul in 2022 it was 28%. His ML career number is 15.5%. That is probably close to his skill level though it was greater than that in his recent minors so maybe 16-17%. There still may be something there but I would not count on him to be stingy with the long ball.

The narrative about third time through the order is beyond tiresome. Chris Archer rarely saw the lead of hitter a third time. Joe Ryan saw the lead off hitter the third time every game. Sonny Gray? There were 5 games he did not see the top of the line up the third time. April 16 - pulled for injury May 7 - first game back from 1st IL trip. June 15 - first game back after 2nd IL trip September 2 - exited tightness right hamstring September 19 - pitched his last game of season. Placed on IL He saw the top of the line up every other start. Another thing that is tiresome is the misunderstanding of the skew in the data the third time through. Most of the data for the third time through is from facing the top of the line up. Starters rarely see the bottom of the line up a third time. Unusually Gray’s OPS against third time through happened to be better than second time through last year. It was not a meaningful difference or sample size. I don’t believe the data supports the persistent statement that Baldelli pulls pitchers before the third time through. He did pull Archer and Bundy frequently before the third time through, he managed many pitchers returning from injury and they often had a shorter first start back. He did not pull Ryan or Gray before the third time seeing the line up. I also don’t believe data supports a significant change in pitcher skill the third time through. It is true that most starters over their career have poorer numbers the third time through. Most of that drop is simply because the data is heavily skewed to the top of the line up. Why don’t most hitters do best the third time through? Carlos Correa does better the first and second time than the third time. There is skew in the data too. He doesn’t get to face many Bundy’s and Archer’s a third time and is stuck facing the Gray’s and Ryan’s more often.

If the Pirates are seeking controlled starting pitching the Twins can’t compete for Reynolds unless they are willing to part with Ryan. Some team will offer better than Ober.

I just hope the current Griffin Jax continues to be the 2022 Griffin Jax. Relievers appear volatile because of the nature of their sample size. We may have simply seen his 80th or 90th percentile results last year. I would need to see another year before seeking the next Griffin Jax,

The Dodgers and Astros have used their talented young pitchers in relief as they hit the majors. It didn’t stop them from contributing as full time starters later in their career. The Twins have several near ready pitchers with options. They can make the back half of the pen much more flexible. I am all for adding a reliever to the top end of the pen with Duran. I would not be excited about adding a reliever without options for the back half of the pen. I would rather use some of the AAA starter talent in that role.

Moran had experience in that 1.3 to 2.3 role last year. He has the advantage of options when he need to go longer. It might be better to use Maeda but those outings are often lower leverage.

What experience? He was a reliever for the Dodgers in the last month of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Virtually all of those appearance were shorter stints. He did have 2 consecutive long relief appearances in 2019. He was a starter through August and his first two relief appearances were 4 innings. One looks like he followed an opener and the other a piggyback. Neither looks like an unplanned long relief role. On September 8 he followed an opener and took over the game in the third inning. The opener did not give up a run. On September 2 the starter pitched 5 innings and he pitched 4. The Dodgers scored 4 runs the half inning after he entered and he stayed in to finish the game. That is the only possible long relief appearance and his entry could have been planned for that game in a September piggy back start. It would have his natural day to start. The Twins will have to look elsewhere to find a pitcher with experience in that role. It will be hard to find. Teams have stopped utilizing long relievers.

For some reason this role doesn’t exist anymore. Joe Sheehan wrote about it in 2017. Last there were relievers that average more than 2 innings an outing(minimum 50 relief innings). Trevor Williams and Jamie Barría had the closest to a traditional low leverage long relief role. I think it is more important to have pitchers with options in the back end of the pen. Moran had several 2 inning stints and a 3 inning stint last year. After some of those outing the Twins were able to send him to St. Paul and bring up another arm. Most relievers were originally starters. They are capable of throwing multiple innings. They just aren’t used that way any longer. Instead high leverage relievers throw maximum effort in shorter stints and the low leverage relievers are shuttled out to AAA after a multiple inning game. Baseball is always shifting and we may see the long reliever make a return. Perhaps the Twins should be pioneering that effort.

He missed 2020 to the pandemic. Prior that he was in A ball mostly as a teenager. The last two years instead of learning and adjusting to the speed of the game in AA and AAA he was on the major league roster spending a lot of time on the bench. A big part of fundamentals is the speed of the game and how much faster the game is at the major league level compared even to AAA. He mostly jumped from A with a year off. That is a huge speed of game jump. Mental mistakes should not be a surprise.

Celestino is 23 years old. He was born in 1999 and is one of the youngest on the 40 man roster. Larnach, Wallner and Kirilloff were born in 1997. He doesn’t even gave a full season of at bats in the minors since his time in A ball in 2019. If anything I think the deal for Taylor shows the twins belief in him. He needs that time in AAA. It might not go well at first as he makes adjustments but I expect he will have a good career in the majors with some years as a starter. Sometimes up the middle players are pushed up because of need. It happened to Eduardo Escobar. I am sure many has no hope for him with his poor batting performance through age 24. It could be the same with Celestino. Is it really obvious to all that he is the big loser in the Taylor trade? It seems like this time in the minors could help set him on a path to a lucrative major league career.

Falvey did add a few minor league free agents off the 40 that add to the depth. Are the Twins thin at catcher? I took a look at other 40 man rosters. The Astros and several others have 2. Some of the teams with 3 are protecting a prospect who won’t be ready this year. Others like the Yankees have a guy like Rortvedt. I would think Wolters is at least as capable as Rortvedt to step in with his track record of good defense and experience calling games. They both might be current versions of Drew Butera but at least Wolters doesn’t need to be in the 40 until needed. I also like the addition of Willi Castro. He is 25. Detroit pushed him to the majors at 22. They had good reason to be excited. He had an OPS of .833 as a 22 year old shortstop in AAA. He hasn’t hit yet but shortstops that get pushed up the system with their glove can have that bat delayed. He certainly gives them some young experienced depth in AAA behind Farmer, Gordon and eventually Lewis. They also have Martin and possibly Julien ready soon though Julien’s infield spot may be 1B.

I too am hopeful but I wonder why he fell to 48. There have been other promising pitchers with TJ surgery that haven’t fallen that far. Teams knew that Giolito was shut down due to elbow trouble and TJ was likely. He fell to 16. Last year Lesko fell to 15. Why was he there at 48?