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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Sonny Gray was placed on the IL in April, May and September. I think most teams would have been cautious with his use after those two early season injuries.
  2. jorgenswest
    Seth I really appreciate articles like this. Thank you.
  3. jorgenswest
    Earl Battey also won three consecutive gold gloves. He also received MVP votes finishing 7th, 8th and 10th. Is Butch Wynegar the only other Twins catcher to receive MVP votes when he finished 29th as a rookie? Others of note include Roseboro, Engle, Pierzynski and Suzuki who were all star catchers as a Twin. Garver won a silver slugger.
  4. jorgenswest
    In AAA teams ran more often with a greater success rate than in 2021. There will be more stolen bases and there is reason to be concerned about Jeffers. Catching the same pitching staff Sanchez was much more successful throwing out runners at 28% vs 18% for Jeffers. If Sanchez is at best average then Jeffers has significant work to do to get there.
  5. jorgenswest
    More likely than a pitcher winning a batting title again. That hasn’t happened in 136 years. Edit: Ohtani could be the Guy Hecker of our time by winning a triple crown, batting title and ERA title in his career. With the DH in both leagues and the likelihood there will eventually be an automated strike zone there will be another catcher that wins the title. Removing framing from the equation will open the door to more offense from the catcher position.
  6. jorgenswest
    I agree. If they have confidence that one of Julien or Martin or Arraez or Gordon can fill the role they might consider trading Polanco for something they can’t fill on the open market. How about Mariners top catching prospect Harry Ford? His BTV is 11.1. Polanco’s is 15.8. Maybe take a chance on Sam Haggerty (switch hitter with career OPS against lefties of .924 and righties .531) to platoon in outfield or Chris Flexen or both bringing the Mariner side to 15.1. The same question then flips to the Mariners. Why would they give up a top prospect to fill a hole they can fill on the open market?
  7. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine finding a trade for Polanco that results in the 2023 team being better. Team interested in Polanco would not likely be interested in moving one of their key 2023 pieces. I felt the same way last winter about trading Garver is r Rogers. The Garver move in combination with Donaldson trade and Correa did improve the team in 2022. It is possible but unlikely.
  8. jorgenswest
    More of Gordon’s WAR came as a 2B or CF though he had more plate appearances as a left fielder. He was quite valuable in a utility role and would probably be more valuable as a regular up the middle. In my search I saw Jake Cave led Twin left fielders in WAR slightly ahead of Gordon and Larnach. You are right about the need at the corners.
  9. jorgenswest
    Minnesota right fielders ranked 18th with 1.5 Fangraphs WAR. Kepler contributed 1.8 of the 1.5. His 1.8 would have ranked 16th by team.
  10. jorgenswest
    Trades for minor leaguers is a critical part of the pipeline. The top three (by Fangraphs WAR) 26 and under pitchers were all acquired in trade in Alcantara, Cease and Galan. The 4th in the list Webb was drafted by the Giants in 2014 and they waited 7 years for him. Manoah is next on the list and he paid off for the Blue Jays quickly. The Twins never had a chance at him. If trades for minor leaguers are not part of the pipeline I am not sure 5 years is a reasonable amount of time to expect it to be filled by pitchers acquired in the draft. The Guardians returned to first place with a very good starting rotation. Four of those starters were drafted in 2016 and the other in 2015. I think Falvey was with the Guardians when they were drafted. Clase was acquired in trade as was their 6th starter Pilkington. I do agree that Gray is the bar for acquiring starters in free agency. I think they have developed enough near ready pitchers to fill the back end.
  11. jorgenswest
    I like the stars and young player mix with the additions of Correa and Rodon. I am not sure Leon is the best 1 million dollar catcher but it might be a spot they cycle through multiple inexpensive catchers. I get that Maeda in the pen saves money and he may actually be more valuable at his bullpen salary than his starter salary. Did you consider moving in from Urshela and shift that money to that catcher spot or Maeda as a starter or both? Sticking with Urshela might be the way to go here.
  12. jorgenswest
    You asked. Easy count. 35 signed pick 539s.
  13. jorgenswest
    More on Julien and his 2 home run game Jonathan Mayo https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-edouard-julien-homers-twice-in-arizona-fall-league
  14. jorgenswest
    Rocky Coppinger is the career 539 WAR leader with 1.2. At 538 Lyle Overbay has 16.5. Keith Brown is is the 540 leader with 0.3. That is a lot of players drafted and signed with only one significant career (unless we consider Joe Beimel’s career significant).
  15. jorgenswest
    Wherever he lands I hope he gets back to pulling the ball more. I think his attempt to make adjustments has led to more ground balls. While he is pulling the ball less he is also hitting it on the ground more often. He needs to go back to pulling the ball and get a greater launch angle.
  16. jorgenswest
    Seems like a success to me. Fangraphs valued him at 30.4 million for his two years with the Twins and with his 2020 salary prorated they paid him a little less than that for his two years. On top of that they moved him as part of a deal for players that were valuable to the Twins last year. I do give them credit for getting value out of Donaldson and moving him before his value crashed. I was wrong on the Donaldson deal being a disaster. I hope Paddack proves me wrong on the Rogers deal too. They certainly sold high on Rogers. They also appear to have sold high on Berrios.
  17. jorgenswest
    Julien may not be close to being ready at 2B defensively. His eventual position might be 1B. Does he need a full season in AAA to be ready to play 2B in the majors? I think his glove more than his bat will determine his readiness.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is there reason to believe that one or the other is more likely to decline at an earlier age? Assuming there isn’t I don’t see why the Twins would want to offer the same AAV to Bogaerts when a greater ratio of his contract would be in his decline phase. I suppose someone will pay him that shortstop premium but I think he needs to be closer to 5/140 for it to make sense.
  19. jorgenswest
    Still a good find. From a pool of over 100 players in 538/539 only one player had any kind of career. Craps is not that difficult. If Julien makes it credit needs to go to the identifying and development teams in the Twins organization.
  20. jorgenswest
    Hunter wasn’t really a 538. He didn’t sign out of high school and was a first round pick later. Many first round college picks were drafted in the late rounds coming out of high school when there virtually no chance they would sign. Overbay is the bar we hope Julien passes. Good find.
  21. jorgenswest
    I would not trade Polanco if they are in contention. Julien may be really good in a partial AAA season but then really struggle in the majors as Steer did. If they aren’t in contention they should seriously consider trading Polanco regardless of Julien’s performance.
  22. jorgenswest
    Is this still true with the new September roster rules? Teams were able to add at most one pitcher. He also hit 361/425/667 in the first 18 games in September. Those games were critical at the time as they faced the Guardians(8), Yankees(4) and White Sox(3). The other 3 games were against the Royals and they were not starting AAA call ups in those games. I don’t think the narrative that dismisses his September performance is supported by the box scores.
  23. jorgenswest
    The best player drafted and signed in his spot (539) is Rocky Coppinger with 1.2 career WAR. Chris Booker (drafted and signed in 1995) was the last to play in the majors from 539. He had a career ERA of 14.29.
  24. jorgenswest
    It wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed. I appreciate most when I have realized that a discussion has caused me to change my thinking.
  25. jorgenswest
    He did have one good DRS month. I think DRS does a good job of describing the past but much like RBIs is opportunity based. I like it best in determining a gold glove winner but I don’t think it is the best in projecting forward. The other defensive metrics might give a different picture of Kiner-Falefa’s defense. His UZR was 0 last year and 1.1 in 2021 suggesting he is an average defensive shortstop. His RAAs was -2 last year and -5 the previous year. Given the mix wouldn’t a more reasonable expectation is that Kiner-Falefa will likely provide an average glove and below average bat at SS? Would Urshela at SS with a mediocre glove and better bat help more overall?
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