jorgenswest

Arraez is below average at 2B (career DRS of -2, UZR150 of -4.8, RAA of -11). I don’t think we respect how hard it is to play a position at the major league level even at his below average rate. I don’t think Julien is close to that level yet. Julien hasn’t had a position. In college he was primarily a DH his first year with trials at 2B, LF and 1B. He was moved to 3B his second year at Auburn. He lost 2020 to the pandemic and then the Twins tried him at 2B, LF, 3B and 1B in 2021. Last year he played 94 games at 2B. Some players move around positions because they have the skills to play several and utility is in their future. Some move around in hopes of finding any position that will fit. I am not sure if Julien is ready for any position at a passable level. Do the Twins invest the year in AAA in trying to make him a 2B? Do they abandon 2B and hope for 1B and invest the time there? If the bat is ready do they put him at DH and use him in the field as infrequently as possible? edit: I wondered if Luis Arraez was the best comp. Julien has a less average, more power, more walks and more strike outs. I went back through the old New Britain AA clubs found someone that might match that on base with some power profile better. How does he compare to Bobby Kielty? Kielty was an asset with the glove in the outfield but their batting lines in the minors might be a better fit.

“Stabilization” point for OBP against is 540 PA and SLG against is 550 AB. OPS wouldn’t be less than that. For his career Jax has faced 76 number 3 hitters (67 abs). I think at this point the sample is one to be ignored. Your eye test doesn’t need to be ignored. Data can never replace a skilled eye. So much more can be seen by the eye in a short time span than can be seen by the data.

I think they need another right handed bat. It will be Garlick or someone they acquire. Does Gurriel help more than Garlick?

Is there any reasonable way to get Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff and Gallo in the line up? I suppose Gordon could play 3B but I don’t want Miranda in the short side of a platoon. One of those players needs to be traded or in AAA. They need a right handed bat in that spot. The best in house candidate is Garlick. I would sign Gurriel. I think they need one more reliever also. I think Fulmer over Megill would be a helpful upgrade.

I see a pitcher with an ERA 19% better than league average over the last three years. How many starters in the league have performed better over the last 3 season? It has to be top 50 and maybe top 30. Those starters are hard to find and expensive to acquire. Bundy’s ERA over the last three years is 14% worse than league average. I wouldn’t look at a partial season of data for Lopez anymore than I would look at the drop in the performance of Arraez as the season progressed. Partial seasons project forward poorly. We simply disagree on the significance of that split in projecting performance for this year. Some see Bundy. I don’t.

My uninformed opinion from my recliner thinks he has tried to hard to hit the ball to the opposite field. The result has been too much weak contact and a lower launch angle. He needs to go up to the plate looking for a pitch to attack and drive it to the pull side.

I guess you can throw out the early season but ERAs were down across the league. Bundy had an ERA in the 2s for March/April. I think it is far better to look at a three year sample for projecting forward than truncating the previous year.

Do the Twins have a better win projection in 2023 as a result of this trade? If the answer is no, it is reasonable to oppose this trade. The win projection after the Rogers trade dropped last year. The argument was that we had control of Paddock and Pagán for 2023. 2023 would be better. How did that turn out? I do like the trade. I also get an assessment that Arraez is more valuable to the 2023 Twins than López. Unlike the Rogers trade the Twins have time to fix the line up before the season starts. I hope this isn’t the last move.

Isn’t he a switch hitter that hits better against right handed pitching over his career? It seems like we have outfielders that hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN197307040.shtml Attendance 45,890! Bane pitched well. I wasn’t there but I was listening to Herb Carneal and Ray Christensen (I think Halsey Hall retired year previous).

It would be fast. Eddie Bane was the fastest. He debuted in the majors right after being drafted 11th overall from Arizona State.

With the way starters today are used platooning really doesn’t help enough for a catcher at the bottom on the order. He will likely still see two at bats against a right handed pitcher and sometimes only 1 against that left handed starter. Since teams are more reluctant to pinch hit for their catcher he will see plenty of right handed pitchers in those games started by lefties. In fact while his OPS last season was .909 against left handed pitching, his OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher was .670. The samples are too small but I used the data to illustrate the small impact of trying to start him almost every game when the Twins are facing a left handed pitcher. Did you know that he has a better career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher (.688 to .648) even though he hits left handed pitchers better? The best way to get him at bats against a left handed pitcher is to slot him in between two left handed batters in the line up and let him feast on the left handed relievers.

I would give him the minor league deal. If he takes a minor league deal there are teams like the Marlins that offer a better path of opportunity. He also might seek a bigger contract going overseas.

The best way not to be used is the be the Pirates and not participate. All negotiations will use the buyers against each other. If you don’t want the Twins to be used you must not want them to buyers.

Reading this thread reminds me of the Eduardo Escobar threads at a similar age. It isn’t unusual for an up the middle player to arrive before their bat is ready yet still develop to their potential while spending time on the bench. I would bet on Celestino in his prime years being a starting outfielder.

The sample size for those stats needs to be multiple seasons to be meaningful. Using that data in a sample of 127 innings would be very unreliable. The other ERA projectors are more reliable ERA projectors but not great. Whichever data is used a three year sample is much more reliable in projecting forward.

I think they go in with understanding of the risk. It is the injury risk that makes him available to a mid/small market team. I’d take the risk.

The injury risks provides the opportunity for a mid/small market team to sign an elite player. I would take the risk.

Let’s suppose they sign someone like Fulmer and need a spot on the 40. They DFA Enlow. Enlow has a chance to passed through waivers. If they know they will be filling Enlow’s spot on the 40 they can DFA him now when acquiring Ortega. Now when they sign someone like Fulmer they can DFA Ortega. He has a chance to make it through waivers also. I don’t think Ortega will be on the 40 to start the season. Enlow wouldn’t be either. The Twins will acquire a veteran for that spot on the 40 and both Enlow and Ortega will have had chances to pass though waivers from that spot.

Fulmer may be the move. This isn’t about Enlow vs Ortega. It is about using that 40 man spot for a player like Fulmer. Making this move gives the Twins two chances to pass a player through waivers instead of one.

I would really be surprised in Ortega is on the 40 at the start of spring training. It is quite common to sign a player and then try to pass him through waivers. The Twins know that they will be adding players and need Enlow’s spot. Why not make this move now? They have a chance that Enlow passes through waivers. Later this winter when they need that spot they will have a chance that Ortega passes through waivers.

Was the TD list better that the MLB? How did they do with Gordon, Miranda, Rodriguez and Winder? Missing from the MLB list are Ober, Jax, Moran, Wells and Wade. Any others missing. Did TD do any better with them? What would a top 30 of that group look like today?

If last winter you outlined the trade with the Rangers, the trade with the Yankees and the signing of Correa I think I would have thought it less likely.

The reality is the data from the previous season does not provide a good projection for the next season. It is much more reliable to use multiple years particularly for a player at Wacha’s age and experience. Some don’t trust projections but anyone using last season’s data to support acquiring (or not) a player is projecting last season on the next. If you are going to project using more data (seasons) will give a better projection. Steamer projects Wacha for a 4.43 ERA next season. Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Mahle, Ober and even Varland are projected for better ERAs. The Twins certainly have their own projection which they trust more but should we trust it. Have they found success with these short term back of the rotation signings? I am all for adding a starter but acquire someone that slots in by Gray rather than between Varland and Woods-Richardson. Chris Sale would move everyone down a slot. They can pay the salary. Go after a pitcher like Sale.

They might be but I don’t think Garver is a fit. I really think he needed that 2017 time in AAA to become a better defensive catcher.