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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The biggest benefit to putting best hitters at the top of the order is the extra plate appearance. Garlick is not one of the best hitters but he was never going to get that extra plate appearance. Falvey has him on the roster because of his ability to hit lefties… an ability he hasn’t shown yet in the small sample. In that sense it does make sense to bat Garlick near the top of the line up. He is only in the game as long as Kikuchi is in the game and likely for two plate appearances. Those two plate appearance might come in the 3rd spot or the 8th spot. By placing him in the third spot they have Kirilloff or Larnach to take that place in the middle lineup. It is that player who will likely get any extra plate appearance. If you are imaging the end of game batting order as you construct a line up it might be reasonable to put your platoon right handed bat higher up in the lineup so that your left handed batter has a possibility of that extra at bat against a right handed pitcher. It turns out the only two players hitting the ball were Lewis and Taylor. It was lucky they were close together in the lineup or the Twins probably don’t win. The platoon 6 of Solano, Kirilloff, Garlick, Larnach, Farmer and Kepler combined for one Solano hit. Baldelli put those players in a position they were most likely to succeed and they didn’t follow through.
  2. jorgenswest
    This isn’t a random 22 game stretch. I don’t believe there is any chance the A’s or even a .500 team in a weak division can go 13-9 in a stretch where they see the best in the AL and NL. I don’t believe the 1987 Twins could have gone 13-9 against the best in the NL and AL in 1987. Without the unearned dome advantage I don’t think they win in 87. The conditions are very different now and we need to set the bar higher than best in AL central. Trading the future to add players at the deadline in hopes of winning the central will continue the cycle of mediocrity. Short of being the best team in the AL over the next 6 weeks, I don’t think the Twins should be a buyer.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t think those playoff conditions exist anymore. In 1987 the Twins had home field advantage in both the ALCS and WS in spite of their inferior record. In 1987 the Twins had to make it through just two rounds of playoffs instead of 4 rounds. I am going to have to dust off my VCR if I want to enjoy a repeat of the 1987 Twins. I think the best I can hope for with this team is a repeat of the 2009 or 2017 Twins. Playoffs are no longer a crapshoot.
  4. jorgenswest
    Disagree here. He can’t get thrown out at 2nd and be the second out. They need that runner on third with one out to keep the sac fly in order. No way the Rays let him walk to second.
  5. jorgenswest
    No. Not as a buyer. If they want to sell off expiring contracts then I am a yes. They are only relevant because they are in the AL central.
  6. jorgenswest
    This offense needs to be shaken up. Replacing Kepler or Garlick or whoever is the current target of some will not be anywhere near enough. Is a change in leadership the best path towards shaking up an offense that continually takes poor at bats by not swinging at center cut balls, swinging at balls out of the zone and whining about called strikes on the edges?
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t find that direct quote searching the Athletic. I wouldn’t trust it from someone rambling on the podcast. I don’t believe Kepler told them he is not willing and I don’t believe Aaron Gleeman reported it in such definitive terms.
  8. jorgenswest
    That was the kind of pitching performance they need against a good playoff team. Lopez is a playoff caliber starter. Sadly their offense makes bullpen day pitchers look like playoff caliber starters. If Arraez were in the lineup he would only add to the LOB totals after the batters behind him strike out.
  9. jorgenswest
    At the time I believed that this trade made the 2023 team worse particularly for the regular season. I still would do the trade. Pitching is expensive. Investing in pitching is risky but necessary. Starting pitching becomes more valuable and essential in the playoffs.
  10. jorgenswest
    Barlow doesn’t give the Royals salary relief. The prospect cost goes up when he is added to a Chapman deal. Perez does give salary relief. I don’t see how they fit the money he is owed through 2026 into their budget. I am not a buyer this year. I am not trading any prospect with the upside of Miranda’s bat for a reliever. Instead I would look to buy low on relievers. I would see what Maeda can give the Twins from the pen. I would look to some of the arms in St. Paul before trading anything more than C prospects.
  11. jorgenswest
    I expected he would be flipped out for Larnach. It appears the Buxton decision was made shortly before the game after a workout so they went with that move. Assuming that is the case there is no reason not to have Wallner up to DH for today’s game. Hopefully he will be arriving in Tampa soon.
  12. jorgenswest
    Sometimes it just takes time and patience. Teams out of contention can afford that patience. If you are in a pennant race it is hard to be patient. Perhaps teams like the Twins that are in contention only because they are in the central would be better off being a seller than a buyer. They might need that extra patience to get to the next level.
  13. jorgenswest
    I sure hope they send players to the majors with awareness of situational hitting. Once you get to the majors it needs to be about the speed of the game at this level. This isn’t on Rocco.
  14. jorgenswest
    If this is a short term call up until Larnach is ready Tuesday it is for two games. The Twins are limited on how many times a player can be optioned in a season. The Twins may eventually risk losing Garlick if he is sent back too many times, Would you use a two game call up on Wallner? Before you respond “call him up for good”, let’s suppose the Twins were looking for a two game call up with one game against a left handed pitcher. Should it be Wallner or Garlick?
  15. jorgenswest
    He has had other similar stretches of 100ish at bats. I expect the next two months will be better. I think his defense and experience at catcher are valuable to the team and worthy of the contract. I would shift his share of starts from around 60% towards 40% though.
  16. jorgenswest
    Moran has been valuable this year. He has inherited mitre runners than any other reliever on the team and closed the door. There are three relievers who tend to come in with runners on base. Moran leads the way allowing only 1 in 15 to score. Moran 1/15 Stewart 4/12 Pagán 4/10 No one else has seen more than 4 inherited runners. The team as a whole is 16/55 for 29%. I don’t know if this is meaningful moving forward but the number of fires Moran has put out this year should be noticed.
  17. jorgenswest
    I care about looking forward and how the past will inform looking forward. I will never be swayed by a partial season sample. My original comment that he tends to give up runs in crooked numbers and also put up a good number of clean outings is what I expect moving forward based on looking back long enough. I think there are game situations where going in with that expectation or likelihood is more helpful to winning that game than others. The Twins really needed a clean outing when down 3 mid game. They got the clean outing. It helped them win the game.
  18. jorgenswest
    I was looking across both seasons and I think I referenced last year. Your point might be that he is a different pitcher now and last year doesn’t matter. I am not sure he has changed from the pitcher that is prone to command issues that can lead to walks or hard contact. I also wonder if we should consider how he has done with inherited runners.
  19. jorgenswest
    He did last year also. His clean outing rate isn’t bad. His crooked number rate is troubling. That probably won’t change. Down 6-3 mid game is a good spot for him. Giving up 2 or 3 isn’t much different than giving up 1. He has a good chance to keep it 6-3. He probably isn’t the guy you want pitching with a 6-3 lead.
  20. jorgenswest
    True. However the sample size where strike out rate and walk rate start to stabilize is much lower than HR/9. The minor leagues would likely be different but at the major league level strike out rate begins in stabilize at 70 batters faced and home run rate stabilizes at 1320 batters faced. This article from Fangraphs is from 2010 and you can probably find more up to date studies. I would think that the magnitude of difference between strike out rate and home run rate is pretty similar today and would be similar in the minor leagues.
  21. jorgenswest
    The bench moves provided the offense. Letting Ober continue after the awful start worked. I don’t think any manager would have replaced him before the three run home run. In game as far as bench and pen moves I don’t think Rocco could have been more effective compared to the results of the bench hitters and pen. In anticipation of an opener he could constructed the lineup so the first three hitters were left handed. Why not start with Julien, Kirilloff and Gallo followed by Buxton and Correa? If the left handed trio goes down Manaea comes in against a long string of right handed batters. If they get on base Buxton and Correa are there to drive them in. Ultimately if those right handed batters that started the game are as awful as they were last night there is nothing a manager can do to hit the ball for them.
  22. jorgenswest
    Huh? Solano, Garlick and Jeffers were on base in 6 of their 8 plate appearances including the only run after starting on the bench. Hardly neutralized. Give credit to Baldelli for countering the opener so masterfully. It was the starting line up that was the problem. The bench moves were the only offense.
  23. jorgenswest
    My apologies for derailing this thread. Solano’s slash stats with runners in scoring position this year. 438/591/563 for an OPS of 1153. If you change it to runners on it is 1104. I believe BR is up to date through yesterday. He has had few opportunities with runners in scoring position and has done very well when those opportunities have been presented. Like RBIs it means nothing for the future at this sample.
  24. jorgenswest
    Both RBIs and WPA similarly describe the past neither. They both are heavily based on opportunity. Neither is a predictor of the future.
  25. jorgenswest
    He is third of the Twins position players in WPA.
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