jorgenswest

Nice job by Pagán. Big hit from Gallo. They need to win the series today.

I did a blog on this data earlier. There isn’t a linear correlation. Look at the bottom teams in runs scored. Strike out too little and it hurts your run scoring because you lack power (WAS, CLE). Strikeout too often and it hurts your run scoring as you aren’t putting enough balls in play. Is it more so this year with the increase in stolen bases? This year’s dot plot looked more parabolic. Look at the top 5 teams in runs scored and you will see three in the middle of the strikeout rate data slotted 14,15,16. Is the balance between balls in play and the strikeouts that come with power important? Did the Twins destroy that balance by trading Arraez and the signing Gallo hoping he could approach the .795 OPS they lost? Gallo may match that OPS. I think it would have helped a lot more to get that .795 the way Arraez did. The Twins need that balance.

Duran was their 19th ranked prospect in the MLB pipeline at the time. Maciel was 11th. Including a 19th ranked prospect with a 4.73 ERA in low A Ball. I think they didn’t have any trouble pulling the trigger. He was not a top prospect. He had a big arm but poor numbers in their system. He was immediately much better with the Twins.

Strong starting pitching hasn’t carried them so far. No pitching can overcome when bats go dead for a week. They have yet to win more than two series in a row against any competition. How would they put up that consistency in the playoffs? Now is the time to show their potential. The next 5 series are against losing teams. Can they dominate through the end of the month? I want to see that before they stay selling off assets.

The 21 Braves are a good example. They were not buyers at the deadline. They did buy low on three veteran outfielders in Soler, Rosario and Duvall. Soler and Rosario were having particularly poor seasons. They get them they traded Pablo Sandoval, Alex Jackson (failed prospect out of options) and minor league reliever Kasey Kalich. They also added reliever Rich Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson who was also going to be out of options with a 5.88 ERA. The Braves wisely identified two outfielders they could fix and turn around their seasons. It cost virtually nothing. In fact they received cash with Rosario in the Sandoval deal. Can the Twins identify those buy low turn around candidates to acquire? It does seem like they have a few of those candidates already on the roster.

Not a perfect year but the Phillies showed sustained stretches of excellence. In May I suggested that if the Twins could win 4 series in a row, I would be a buyer at the deadline. They have yet to surpass two series in a row. You prompt had me go look at the Phillies last year. At the end of May their 21-29 record was pretty dismal. Then they won not 4 but 5 series in a row including 9 wins in a row and a stretch of 15-2 in June. That is what I need to see. Time is running short but they have 5 series against losing teams before the break. They need to go dominate and then I am in.

2014 is a good season to consider. Both the Giants and Royals had to win a wild card game which meant they had to win three series to get to the World Series and then win the series. They won 88 and 89 regular season games. It is possible the Twins could get there. I wonder if the season was unique in its balance. There were no 100 win teams and no 100 loss teams. There were only 6 teams with 90 or more wins and 6 with 90 or more losses. The Giants had the fourth most wins in the NL and 8 games behind the top team. The Royals had the fourth most wins in the AL and 9 games back of the leader. Can the Twins get to that status? It is hard to imagine they will be within 10 of the AL leader or have the fourth most wins in the AL. I do appreciate how this shows their pitching can be impactful in the playoffs. I think I need to see them dominate these next 5 series against below .500 teams before I would advocate they make trades.

I think the strike outs point to more development is necessary. If Severino is striking out 33% against AA pitchers that number has to go up against major league pitchers. Camargo has 73 strike outs and 13 walks against AAA pitchers. That isn’t going to work. The run scoring context in St. Paul leads to distorted OPS and ERA. Strike outs and walks give a better picture of readiness. They aren’t ready to help and the Twins need more balls in play. Not less.

Severino, Camargo and Williams have very high strike out rates. Wallner and Larnach are better but also high.

There is not a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. When I looked at the data earlier this year balance seemed important. Teams the strike out the least didn’t score as many runs as they also had less power. Teams that strike out a lot also were not among the runs scored leaders. They had power but contact seems an important part of that balance. Trading Arraez and adding Gallo destroyed that balance. If you just look at OPS Gallo’s .764 could end close to the .795 Arraez provided last year. Without the balance I don’t think it would be nearly as valuable though.

If they bring in offense they really need to bring in bats that are going to slot in the top three of the order. Anything else won’t move the needle and they may as well hope on the guys they have achieving their 70th percentile instead of 30th. I don’t think Turner is going to move the needle. He is no longer a viable 3B and I am not confident he will be significantly better than a Kirilloff/Solano platoon. They need to aim somewhere better than him and be prepared to trade from their best prospects. Are you ready to do that?

Fair enough. I wouldn’t either. Someone will send a promising prospect.

If they can win the next two series (or get to 4 in a row by deadline), I would support buying. I do so with the following assumptions. trading for anyone of value will need to be an overpay to win the deal. they will need to trade off prospect assets or less likely budget assets to a team wanting to cut salary On the pitching side everyone can use bullpen help. Those can be risky pick ups. I don’t think they can add anyone better than Polanco to the infield. I wonder if there is any thought to giving Polanco time at 3B during rehab or letting Julien take some balls there. Would his poor defense cost more runs at 3B? With Wallner, Larnach, Celestino and my irrational hope of Buxton by playoffs should they part with assets to trade for an outfielder? I think the two catchers are doing a great job with the staff. I wouldn’t want to replace either. A trade for Hader might take something like Schobel and the competitive balance pick. Does that pick need to be traded prior to its use or can the player taken be traded at the deadline? I think they need to trade it prior.

A similar article probably was written three years after the fact about 2018 Escobar trade. The top prospect acquired had an injury riddled 2021 AAA season with almost a walk an inning and a 5.06 ERA. It was easy to forget in the moment that it was a 23 year old kid that still had plenty of time to figure it out.

They have had other opportunities and didn’t come through. They take the Blue Jay and Brewer series and then fall to a scuffling Tiger team that was done like 1-12 in June. They win a series against the Yankees and Royals and lose to an 8-21 White Sox team. They have an opportunity to show consistency that they have yet to show this year. I would judge that as a step forward.

That is two series wins in a row. They haven’t made it to three yet. It would be great to go into the break by getting that third in a row against the Orioles.

Fastball speed is a good indicator but velocity down slightly also might point to changes in spin rate and even sharpness of location. It is unlikely everything else remained the same.

He might try to cut down on his strike out rate. He 96 strike outs in 259 at bats. He also needs to get better defensively. It looks like they see him at 3B instead of 2B. He is going to need the time to get to a passable level at that spot. There is space at 3B in AAA but the strikeout and walk rates need to get better.

Williams and Wallner strike out 30% in AAA. I am not sure if that will translate well though I would like Wallner to get a chance. Since his return to AAA about a month ago Gilberto Celestino has an OBP of .400 and more walks than strike outs. His strike out rate is 10.8%. Does his glove, right handed bat and contact skills fit the Twins needs better right now?

Statcast keeps track of hard hits and Joey Gallo makes his living on his hard hit rate. It is a whopping .583. That is 100 points better than the next Twin (>100 ABs) Ryan Jeffers at .481. Of course he strikes out a ton. Many of his outs are whiffs and have no exit velocity. Should those be factored in? I wondered what the data would look like if the denominator was at bats instead of balls in play. The new leader is Ryan Jeffers. That was unexpected. Add in the strike outs and Jeffers is at .325. Gallo now ranks 5th among Twins with a hard hit average of .311. I was not surprised to see Donovan Solano near the top. He ranks second at .323. I was surprised to see the 3rd and 4th ranked Twins. Jose Miranda is at .318 and Max Kepler at .314. The only other Twins with a hard hit average above .300 is Carlos Correa at .308. The top three have less than 100 at bats and in Wallner's and Garlick's case far less than 100 ABs. I don't know if it is meaningful or more meaningful but I like the look of the number. It is more in the batting average range. It takes into account all of a player's outs including the strike outs. I don't know if it has a name so I called it hard hit average. They should consider giving that Wallner kid another look. Hard Hit Average through June 29 .474 Matt Wallner .357 Kyle Garlick .330 Nick Gordon .325 Ryan Jeffers .323 Donovan Solano .318 Jose Miranda .314 Max Kepler .311 Joey Gallo .308 Carlos Correa .289 Trevor Larnach .283 Jorge Polanco .282 Christian Vazquez .272 Edouard Julien .269 Byron Buxton .259 Alex Kirilloff .250 Royce Lewis .250 Kyle Farmer .239 Willi Castro .232 Michael A. Taylor

His average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel rate and hard hit rate are virtually the same as Miranda’s this year. They are both similar profile to Solano but Solano is a notch up in each of those categories. Can the Twins build on the strengths of these two batters who tend towards contact or will they they try to push them towards more power? I have been wondering about their ability to develop players with contact rate as ann area of strength since I saw how Austin Martin responded last year. I justified that Arraez turned out well but now he is really thriving this year and was likely under appreciated by the Twins management. They need to help Kirilloff build on his strengths and if that is a good line drive high contact rate hitter there should be a place in the line up for that hitter.

I honestly don’t either. For a long time I have favored power and on base over contact but I am wondering if that is still true in this baseball context of a never ending supply of relievers. It might be the skills of the players they choose to roster rather than their approach. They have the worst contact rate in the major leagues this year. They can’t change the roster easily. There are more of the same low contact players in AAA. The players that do tend towards contact like Kepler, Miranda and Celestino don’t seem to be thriving under their guidance. Even a successful contact hitter like Arraez has taken a stride forward after leaving. I do know that there isn’t a linear correlation between runs scored and strike outs. I did notice that the teams that have scored more runs per game this year have a team strikeout rating that tends toward the middle. Maybe that balance has value. I have a lot of questions and wonders. I know this isn’t working. I believe it is bigger than the failures of the individuals. I don’t think it can be fixed without making more contact. That can’t happen without a different preparation or approach. The first half is behind them. They ranked first in strikeouts. What can they do to move that second half strikeout ranking into the second quartile?

Maybe. There are bunch of players with a high strikeout/power approach. Does that work better in St. Paul. Isn’t that profile similar to the approach on the Twins?

It may take time for teams to adjust their approach? Without a change in approach and a trend towards more contact we probably won’t see a big change. Is the slight because all teams are doing slightly better or are a few teams seeing a significant change. Have the DBacks changed their approach? Their strike out rank is down. Their run scoring is up. Their team batting average is up 30 points.

Wallner’s strike out rate is certain to be much higher than Kepler’s. I guess they can be really all in with strike outs. Maybe they let go of Kepler and Gallo while bringing up Wallner and Celestino. I think they need to balance out the strike outs so finding a way to get Miranda back up also would help. Does the run scoring context in St. Paul really give us a misperception of performance? There are a bunch of players in St. Paul with strike out rates at 30% or greater but a good OPS due a power/walk approach. It works there in the higher run scoring environment. How well will those high strike out rates translate to the majors? I do think context rate is important and the Twins need more balls in play. Celestino and Miranda put balls in play. The Twins need that balance between contact and the strike out laden power.