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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs sees it differently. They have him number 11 among all staters.
  2. jorgenswest
    I simply wanted to comment his ball in play mattered. If he strikes out as I expected there and Jeffers doesn’t get to third.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think they have a few days to try to trade him also. He isn’t on the major league rster and I don’t think he is subject to the deadline. Anyone confirm?
  4. jorgenswest
    There are plenty of games you might ask this question but getting the ball deep enough to advance Jeffers from second to third led to the first run. He didn’t get credit for a sacrifice fly but we needed the ball in play there.
  5. jorgenswest
    When Kirilloff hurt his shoulder I went to baseball reference to see how often Wallner has played 1B. He has the size. I was disappointed to see he did not play there in college or the minors. He did pitch in college but has otherwise been an outfielder. He throws right handed and has an arm but no experience at 3B either. It’s possible they looked at him at first base and assessed it wasn’t a fit but they really need a Gallo alternative other than Solano while Kirilloff is out.
  6. jorgenswest
    Our understanding of sample size is very different. Pitchers don’t have control of the random variation due to sample. In a small sample pitchers can have the same skill, effectively throw the same pitches and have very different ERAs and BABIPs. They can only control how effectively they throw the ball.
  7. jorgenswest
    I wonder if including that his BAPiP in AA was .217 and in AAA is .398 would have added some useful context to the article beyond change of scenery. These kind of in season variances happen often even when the scenery has stayed the same. It can give the appearance a player has improved significantly. There is reason to be hopeful about Prato but patience is in order here.
  8. jorgenswest
    That is a real risk. However there is also the real risk that Gray or Maeda will come up with an injury giving them very little iver the Twins remaining control.
  9. jorgenswest
    Consider? Absolutely yes. If you are correct in your assessment about the return the Twins listen and say no. If Verlander is only willing to go to the Astros then the Orioles and Dodgers and maybe others will be competing for a small supply of starting pitchers. That demand may drive the return higher than your assessment.
  10. jorgenswest
    Relievers are no more fickle than any other position. Their stat line varies more but it is random variation due to their sample size. That small sample gives the illusion that they are volatile as a group. Teams can get in trouble trading for a reliever based on a half season sample particularly if there wasn’t success in the previous 3 or 4. Dylan Floro has ERAs that have a range that varies by almost 2 runs over the last 4 seasons. His xERA is very stable atlas’s than half a run.his xFIP is also stable with a range of 0.8. His strike out rates and walk rates are pretty stable. It is BABIP and HR rates that are not stable and that home run rate need a large sample. His HR/FB rate was unsustainably low in his good ERA season as his BABIP very high in his poor ERA season. Find a reliever with a track record of good xFIPs, xERAs, strikeout and walk rates and you will have found a good reliever. There is the chance that the small sample remains will get bitten by a high BABIP but that isn’t in the pitcher’s control and only in the teams control as far as their willingness to put up a defense that limits hits on balls in play,
  11. jorgenswest
    I am surprised Cleveland couldn’t do better. The floor on starting pitching is so low. The floor on first baseman is pretty high. I would have thought they should have been able to find a similarly ranked up the middle player or starting pitcher. I am glad they won’t have Civale in 24 and 25.
  12. jorgenswest
    Keep him.
  13. jorgenswest
    There is value in winning the central so I am not selling. The team as is can compete for the central. I am also not buying. They need too many pieces. I would make parallel moves. Trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda but get a similarly aged/years of control return that is a better fit positionally. Lopez for Floro was a parallel move. Lopez had that extra year of control but I am not sure they would have taken him to arbitration. There are a few veterans they might move without really selling. Gallo and Pagán are in this group. My strategy is to do little and compete for the central with the players on the roster.
  14. jorgenswest
    The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if Keuchel is a playoff caliber capable pitcher. If the Twins believe he is they should keep him. They won’t get a return near that level and they need more playoff caliber pitchers. Keeping him means that one of the 6 goes to the pen in a high leverage late inning role. Maeda has shown he can be that capable late inning reliever but it has been a few years. Is it a role where Ober or Keuchel could be successful? Ober hasn’t done it but it would reduce an inning count that is already at a career high. Can Keuchel fill the need of a left handed reliever? While I am not a buyer at the deadline I am also not selling off any playoff caliber pitchers.
  16. jorgenswest
    He was recalled in 2022 short of 20 days.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins had no one close to matching Marte. They could not have made that deal. That was clear at the time. Maybe hindsight isn’t always 20/20.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am not a buyer this year and only interested in parallel moves that will improve 2024. Hader is a free agent. I also am not sure I want to pay for his decline in his next contract. The deal is a fair deal. If I thought the Twins could contend I would endorse it. Every team can use Hader though. Someone will offer prospects with better upside.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am not advocating buying this year. They can try to make a parallel move and trade Larnach for a player with similar age/control that is a better roster fit. This year is not the time to trade him for a player on an expiring contract or in decline,
  20. jorgenswest
    Willi Castro has 1.4 fWAR which is second on the Twins. He has very good defensive numbers at 3B. He really helps with his base running. They could do a lot worse filling in at 3B.
  21. jorgenswest
    How can anyone ignore Plato’s performance in AA this year? Put it with his AAA and he is near his career norms. Slash stats take a long time to stabilize. More than a season. I hope the front office is not making decisions primarily on the 2023 stat line at AAA.
  22. jorgenswest
    We have to get this back on track. As for last off season from my memory they were using at least one 40 man spot to sign and DFA guys like Dennis Santana. Did that help? They could have waited about a week and signed Solano when the 60 was available or maybe Steer hits his way into Solano’s spot. That is at least two. Of course they don’t have Mahle that might be three but they probably add a different starter. Maybe it would have been so tight that they don’t sign Gallo. Darn. As for next year and my hope for this year’s boring deadline I would be willing to sell Prato or Williams or Stevenson or Helman. It will be tough to find a space for them this winter. I also don’t think they lose any to rule 5 though Stevenson would be a free agent. Prato isn’t really a sell high. Including his AA his OPS is at his career average and below .800. Williams isn’t a catcher and would really need to hit to have a major league job. Stevenson has played 5 different seasons in the majors. Helman is already 27. If they want to sell any of those players for a rental reliever I am in. That would be a boring deal.
  23. jorgenswest
    Who is not on the 40 that should be this year? Lee and Severino? They would need to be destroying AA and they really aren’t. Look at Severino’s strike out rate. His 132 WRC+ is good but not unusual. Lee’s is 122. Jake Cave is at 170 in AAA. These numbers aren’t very helpful in determining readiness. Do you mean if they kept Steer? They have had guys that they could put on the 60 day IL when they need space. They haven’t needed it. There is no roster crunch. There won’t be next year.
  24. jorgenswest
    His BABIP against lefties this year is .411. Last year it was .279 against lefties.
  25. jorgenswest
    Julien will get significant plate appearances this year. Wallner is getting his opportunity. Last year the same was said about Steer. If he were still on the roster he would have hit his way into at bats. Hitters will emerge. Every year the number of opportunities is greater than the supply of hitters. I am not selling any young player with upside in fear of no place to play in return for a rental. Not this year.
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