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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Gallo already has a streaky power bat with much better defense. I don’t think that would be a wise switch. Kirilloff will be back.
  2. jorgenswest
    They are skipping the Friday start. Lopez and Gray can each start with an extra day of rest so that fifth starter is not needed. Keuchel is listed for Sunday. Ober could start that day on his normal rest but he may need the extra day more than the others. Varland pitched yesterday so he isn’t an option. A bullpen day is an option for Sunday if they get good starts out of Lopez and Gray. The last Keuchel start turned out to be a bullpen day with a big deficit. They need good starts from Gray and Lopez resting then pen and a really quick hook for Keuchel.
  3. jorgenswest
    As for the hitters I think the run scoring environment in St. Paul gives us a distorted perception of their performance. Chris Williams has a wRC+ of 120. That isn’t special and rather ordinary for a 1B. You mentioned Bryson Stott. His wRC+ was 152 when called up. His OPS at other levels/seasons were 146, 169, 130 and 137. That is a pretty sustained high level relative to league. Jeremy Peña is similar but not quite as strong at 138, 146 and 126 (actually higher when combined with partial same season of 152). The Twins have two players that approach those sustained numbers in Julien and Wallner. They are up already. I don’t see anyone else approaching the readiness of Bryson Stott or Jeremy Peña with sustained performance.
  4. jorgenswest
    It appeared from watching TV that Jax was not locating the ball close to where it was called. There were also just too many wasted uncompetitive pitches after he got ahead in the count. Mechanics? Injury? I suspect he will figure it out.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think comparing an organization’s 25 and under talent is more valuable than prospect lists. I would suggest that the work would be done in tiers instead of ranking. I do think ranking is helpful in getting clicks and conversation about 1v2 or 9v10 but those conversations don’t have much value particularly when looking within one organization itself where the sum of the pieces is what matters. That top tier in the central might include Luis Robert and Bobby Witt. Would Duran or Clase also be included. The next tier might include players like Greene, Bibee, Lewis, Julien and others who have shown tier 1 promise but not sustained it yet. The conversation now turns to comparing the organizations in the central and discourse about individuals and whether they have met a bar for a tier. It would also give a picture of the health of the organization as cost controlled players are extremely valuable to the teams in the central.
  6. jorgenswest
  7. jorgenswest
    Not sure how letting Jorge go is related to Wallner’s work getting his strike rate down. I can add that Farmer is not signed through 24. They do have control if they choose to bring the 33 year old back on his third year arb salary. I wouldn’t bring him back. I would exercise Polanco’s option.
  8. jorgenswest
    He did make significant strides in his strikeout rate between his first and second call up. Credit to him for the work.
  9. jorgenswest
    They will likely have 18 players with at least 100 PAs by the end of the season. They need players on option like Miranda that can step in when the opportunity comes. His wRC+ of 156 and 162 in 2021 are real and so much better than many of the AAA players people are advocating for from St. Paul. His 2022 rookie season was solid. His 2023 shoulder trouble was real and we have no idea how that changed his swing. I would not sell low. He is much more valuable as one of the 16-18 position players they will need next year,
  10. jorgenswest
    Is that typical for this time of the year? Several players have moved off the list and others haven’t established themselves. I think it would be more valuable to have lists by age instead of rookie status. The Twins rank on 25 and under talent would be much better indicator on future of franchise than a prospect rank. MLB had the Braves ranked number 30 to start the season but they have Acuna, Harris, Grissom, Strider, Elder, Stroker, Shuster…
  11. jorgenswest
    He has an option. Minimally he can be on the 40 for depth if the Twins have players returning without others going on the IL.
  12. jorgenswest
    With about 20 minutes left in the trade deadline I saw Heyman reported that the Twins were close on Tommy Pham. The Diamondbacks won the deal and I wondered about the cost. It was a 17 year old top 50 International prospect. The Twins had three of those with two similarly ranked and Ariel Castro clearly higher and would win that deal. They could have acquired Pham for Castro. Should they have done that deal? Pham since the trade deadline has an OPS of 641. Kepler 926. Gallo 1044. Luplow 984. Kepler has had most impact with a WPA of 0.41. Pham has a WPA of -0.34. The last two weeks are not at all predictive of the next two weeks but Pham has some catching up to do.
  13. jorgenswest
    Nice perspective on bench… I also like to think beyond the 26 man roster. They will likely have 18 position players with 100 PAs this year. They need more than 13 capable major leaguers to make it through the season and some capable major leaguers waiting for the opportunity in AAA while optioned. We may have felt like we waited too long but it is far better to be going to Julien and Wallner than Cave and Beckham.
  14. jorgenswest
    If I get to make the decision I would go with Keuchel. Both Gray and Lopez will get an extra day of rest even with a 4 man rotation. Maeda and Ober will enter their next start with an extra day of rest. Luplow has an option remaining so he can be optioned when they need that 5th starter. They don’t need to plan for Buxton or Kirilloff yet.
  15. jorgenswest
    I am glad I am not locked in on deciding today but I would give it to Jax. I think Pagán has a better chance of both a clean outing and a crooked number. The crooked number leads to the other team’s top set up man which is almost certainly better than Pagán or Jax. This Tuesday I would hand the ball to Pagán.
  16. jorgenswest
    Great series win against a very good team. Well done all around these last two games.
  17. jorgenswest
    I tend to agree but I can probably go back and find a similar comment I made about LaMonte Wade Jr.
  18. jorgenswest
    We disagree on first base. I believe it is a different skill set than 2B and not a lower bar of ease. More players have adequate skills to play 1B as a player can throw left or right handed so it should be easier to find a 1B but I don’t believe everyone can more easily play 1B just because they play elsewhere.
  19. jorgenswest
    Is there an assumption that it takes no skill to play the first base? A first baseman doesn’t need range or a good arm. They do need a good glove and hands. That soft glove is not in the skill set of every player and you don’t need to throw them out there at 1B to see it.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think we disagree that an extra day off (possibly twice) will make a season long difference. I think we agree on Keuchel. I don’t want to get into another thread killing back and forth so let’s leave it at that and correct me if I read you wrong about the day off or Keuchel.
  21. jorgenswest
    Do you believe an extra day off a couple of time through the rotation will make a significant difference for Ober? I wonder if any effect is short and once they are back on the 5 day cycle his arm is at the same point as it is today. This is a game so I am not anywhere near horrified but if he does have to go on IL I would pitch Varland in his spot and go with 4 until the 24th. An IL stay would probably give him a better chance at a fresh arm into September than an extra day rest a couple of times.
  22. jorgenswest
    They should be thankful they got one good result out of two and move on. They don’t need a fifth starter again until the 24th. Fill the extra spot with a bat.
  23. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if he is the spark they need. Management needs to know. If he is then bring him up today. Why wait until September?
  24. jorgenswest
    One start that somehow worked and one disastrous start. They don’t need a fifth starter until the 24th with several upcoming off days. Release Keuchel. Bring up a bat. If Ryan isn’t back give someone else a shot at 5th starter in two weeks.
  25. jorgenswest
    Relative to league his ERA has been better than several of the batters relative to league. We look at those batting numbers and wonder why they aren’t being called up. We don’t wonder the same about Dobnak. The run scoring context in AAA is so high it distorts our perception. Dobnak’s ERA+ is 128. For comparison the wRC+ of Larnach(129), Stevenson(125), Williams(121) and Camargo(97). Jake Cave is 170 in the IL this year and 62 in the majors. I am not arguing for Dobnak to be added to the major league roster but rather pointing out that the stats of batters that some argue should be called up isn’t any more worthy of promotion than Dobnak’s stats.
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