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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t think his performance is that uncommon. Seems like they have a reliever like this every year in AAA. Last year it was Evan Sisk with virtually the same WHIP, good strikeout rate and poor walk rate. Ian Hamilton has had seasons like this as a minor league reliever. The small sample stat line for a minor league reliever isn’t very helpful in guiding roster decisions.
  2. jorgenswest
    Funderburk and Moran do have the walks in common but I hope that doesn’t put him in a good position to be called up. His 24 walks across 52.2 minor league innings this year should keep that door closed.
  3. jorgenswest
    I have confidence when Kepler is batting again. I expected a good at bat leading off the ninth. Kepler is showing best average exit velocity, barrels and hard hit of his career. In 2019 he was a pull hitter. I wonder if he spent the last three years trying to hit the ball to the opposite field to avoid the shift. All it resulted in was weak contact. His pull percentage in July was nearly 50%. Make contact and hit it hard. Good stuff will happen. I had a lot of confidence with Wallner up also. That first called strike wasn’t close. Loved the reaction. A little smirk and back to work. He didn’t let a really bad call effect his mindset on the next pitch. That is two series in a row. Hope they make it three for the first time this year.
  4. jorgenswest
    Yes
  5. jorgenswest
    Yes
  6. jorgenswest
    They needed a hitter. Hitters weren’t moved at the deadline. Pham was probably the best fit that actually moved. The cost was a top 50 player in this year’s international signing list. Maybe the Twins could have won the deal by sending either Hendry Chivilli or Carlos Silva but they would be pretty similar so the Mets may have preferred Rodriguez. Ariel Castro probably would have beat the offer. Should the Twins have offered Castro? I think it is more like the front office was unwilling to trade prospects rather than the budget. Too much was asked for the hitters on the market, In this case it is very unlikely that Castro will make it to the Twins while they are still in charge. I have to appreciate that they did what they felt was best for the organization.
  7. jorgenswest
    Not possible at all.
  8. jorgenswest
    It would have helped if Ryan had disclosed his injury to the team. Let’s hope the recovery is a short one.
  9. jorgenswest
    He has had a great two months but the year is pretty ordinary. His OPS for the year is .831. That sounds really good until you realize the run scoring context in the IL is really high this year. The average OPS in the IL is .802. That really gives us distorted perception of both hitters and pitchers. Combining both his performance in the AAA and AA he is about 8% better than league average by OPS. For comparison the league ERA is the IL in about 23% greater than Randy Dobnak. Relative to league Dobnak is performing better than Chris Williams by a little and the full season of Prato by more. I would no be advocating for Dobnak’s return though relative to league he is doing better than Williams and Prato over the season. What if we ignore the abysmal performance in AA across 129 at bats? Prato’s BABIP in AA was .217 after all. Maybe it was just bad luck. That leave us with the outstanding OPS in AAA across 124 at bats. If we want to ignore the AA due to BABIP should we also ignore his AAA performance due to a BABIP of .382? As a whole, Prato’s season follows his career of a better than league average batter at the minor league level. I don’t think it would be wise to cut a partial sample in half and then throw out the bad part due to a low BABIP but make decisions based on the other part in spite of the high BABIP. I would hope the Twins aren’t looking at numbers like OPS at all. They need such a large sample to stabilize. The pitch level data and statcast data I can’t see has to tell a better story for the whole season. The Twins must have seen something encouraging in that AA data in spite of his abysmal OPS start to the year in AA. They could have brought someone else up. Prato has given them further reasons to be encouraged and worthy of consideration of an addition to the 40 man roster in the off season.
  10. jorgenswest
    The run was scored as a result of… a 10 hopper just out of the reach of the second baseman a ground ball out and choice by Correa to get the sure out at first though it looked like he could have got the lead runner if that mattered a wild pitch advancing the runner to third another ground ball out an infield hit deflected off Duran a strike out with tying run at the plate He kept the ball on the ground. He didn’t walk anyone. Last night’s outing did not leave me with any wonderings.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree on “No to Dobnak”. For context though the International League ERA (5.26) is 23% greater than Dobnak’s ERA of 4.26. Relative to league that is slightly better than Chris Williams wRC+ that is 20% greater than the league. The run scoring context of the IL can give us a very different perception of the performance of Dobnak and Williams relative to the league.
  12. jorgenswest
    The home run context in this era is a little higher but in 1987 Bert Blyleven had a similar two month stretch. He gave up 22 home runs across 12 starts in a stretch where he gave up a home run in 14 straight appearances to start the season, Ryan is at 21 in last 12 giving up home runs in the last 9. Frank Viola in 1986 had 10 starts where he gave up multiple home runs. Joe is at 7 this year. Home runs are more frequent in this era. In 1986 the AL home run rate was 2.1%. It has increased by almost 50% to 3.1% of plate appearances in 2023.
  13. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs sees it differently. They have him number 11 among all staters.
  14. jorgenswest
    I simply wanted to comment his ball in play mattered. If he strikes out as I expected there and Jeffers doesn’t get to third.
  15. jorgenswest
    There are plenty of games you might ask this question but getting the ball deep enough to advance Jeffers from second to third led to the first run. He didn’t get credit for a sacrifice fly but we needed the ball in play there.
  16. jorgenswest
    Our understanding of sample size is very different. Pitchers don’t have control of the random variation due to sample. In a small sample pitchers can have the same skill, effectively throw the same pitches and have very different ERAs and BABIPs. They can only control how effectively they throw the ball.
  17. jorgenswest
    I wonder if including that his BAPiP in AA was .217 and in AAA is .398 would have added some useful context to the article beyond change of scenery. These kind of in season variances happen often even when the scenery has stayed the same. It can give the appearance a player has improved significantly. There is reason to be hopeful about Prato but patience is in order here.
  18. jorgenswest
    That is a real risk. However there is also the real risk that Gray or Maeda will come up with an injury giving them very little iver the Twins remaining control.
  19. jorgenswest
    Consider? Absolutely yes. If you are correct in your assessment about the return the Twins listen and say no. If Verlander is only willing to go to the Astros then the Orioles and Dodgers and maybe others will be competing for a small supply of starting pitchers. That demand may drive the return higher than your assessment.
  20. jorgenswest
    Relievers are no more fickle than any other position. Their stat line varies more but it is random variation due to their sample size. That small sample gives the illusion that they are volatile as a group. Teams can get in trouble trading for a reliever based on a half season sample particularly if there wasn’t success in the previous 3 or 4. Dylan Floro has ERAs that have a range that varies by almost 2 runs over the last 4 seasons. His xERA is very stable atlas’s than half a run.his xFIP is also stable with a range of 0.8. His strike out rates and walk rates are pretty stable. It is BABIP and HR rates that are not stable and that home run rate need a large sample. His HR/FB rate was unsustainably low in his good ERA season as his BABIP very high in his poor ERA season. Find a reliever with a track record of good xFIPs, xERAs, strikeout and walk rates and you will have found a good reliever. There is the chance that the small sample remains will get bitten by a high BABIP but that isn’t in the pitcher’s control and only in the teams control as far as their willingness to put up a defense that limits hits on balls in play,
  21. jorgenswest
    I am surprised Cleveland couldn’t do better. The floor on starting pitching is so low. The floor on first baseman is pretty high. I would have thought they should have been able to find a similarly ranked up the middle player or starting pitcher. I am glad they won’t have Civale in 24 and 25.
  22. jorgenswest
    The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players.
  23. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if Keuchel is a playoff caliber capable pitcher. If the Twins believe he is they should keep him. They won’t get a return near that level and they need more playoff caliber pitchers. Keeping him means that one of the 6 goes to the pen in a high leverage late inning role. Maeda has shown he can be that capable late inning reliever but it has been a few years. Is it a role where Ober or Keuchel could be successful? Ober hasn’t done it but it would reduce an inning count that is already at a career high. Can Keuchel fill the need of a left handed reliever? While I am not a buyer at the deadline I am also not selling off any playoff caliber pitchers.
  24. jorgenswest
    He was recalled in 2022 short of 20 days.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins had no one close to matching Marte. They could not have made that deal. That was clear at the time. Maybe hindsight isn’t always 20/20.
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