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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Perfect way to put it. You have been consistent in your call for using those 40 man spots to see if players like Fedko can be part of the future.
  2. jorgenswest
    I admire anyone who fights for his dream riding buses in the minors into their 30s. Taylor is still chasing with a good strike out rate in spite of low 90s fastball. I do not admire those with the mean spirited posts that come with his acquisition. He was acquired from Arizona’s 40 man roster for cash. Keep it that simple. Respect the men who fight for years in the minors. Humans should not be compared to trash that comes from a dumpster.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t know about value compared to Skubal. Ryan can help a team get to game 7. Skubal helps a team win game 7. In fact if someone can acquire Skubal and get him signed they could have him grandfathered in before any possible salary cap is instituted.
  4. jorgenswest
    I agree. Right now the expectation of return should be the same as the offseason. They should expect a top flight prospect. At the deadline of two top 100 prospects like they received for Berrios should be expected.
  5. jorgenswest
    I really don’t think partial season slash stats from St. Paul give insight to major league success. The sample in season is far too small and the run scoring context of St. Paul distorts them further. I would hope they are not a key consideration as the Twins front office considers a players readiness. I would think the swing level data is valuable particularly if they can correlate to pitch shape/spin. How many major league quality pitches are these players seeing and how well are they managing the zone when they see them? I have no idea.
  6. jorgenswest
    It is harder to retain a pitcher signed at 16 in the organization. By around 21 a 40 man roster decision needs to be made. At 24 options could be exhausted. Pitchers get injured. They miss time making the decisions really difficult. The COVID lost year also impacted many. The Yankees ran out of time on Yoendrys Gonzalez though he peaked at their number 4 prospect. He wasn’t ready and they needed the spot.
  7. jorgenswest
    At the time Jeffers was injured I pulled data about how the starters had performed with the two catchers. Caratini had caught Ryan more than any other starting pitcher at that time. The pairing was successful.
  8. jorgenswest
    Why does age matter? Is there a certain age where he can’t get better? His swing rates are not improving over his time in AAA last year. I think they can get better but maybe at 26 it is too late. His swing rates are a result of really weak performance against right handed pitcher. I think he can get better against right handed pitching but maybe he can’t. He is 26. The Twins could call him up and see how he does against major league left handed pitching. He would play sparingly as he hasn’t shown this year he can hit AAA right handed pitching. I believe he is a late bloomer. I would give him this year to improve that swing rates against righties. That work can’t happen if he is short side platoon in the majors. I think McCusker is different. He was older and it didn’t look like any amount of time would result in a workable strikeout rate. He hit the ball really hard though. Maybe that would continue when he made contact in the majors. It didn’t. He was given his release. If Fedko comes up and ends this season passable against lefties and not playable on a corner against righties do the Twins then release him? He is a year older and they gave up the opportunity for him to let him develop against right handed pitching.
  9. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Fedko improve his 3:1 strikeout walk ratio against right handed pitching. His swing strikes, called strike and out of zone percentages have not improved since his time in AAA last year. They are slightly worse. I think he could help the Twins playing a corner against a left handed pitcher. He has played centerfield out of necessity when Rodriguez, Jenkins and Roden went down. He played a few games at 2B out of necessity. I don’t think those are spots he can play in the major leagues. If they do want to bring him to play against left handed pitching in a corner I think they have to give up on the thought that he will be a complete player that you can count on to stay in the game against right handed pitching. I would give him more time. Maybe in the next two months he actually does improve of those swing rates. I’d that happens it is probably a sign he is managing the zone better against right handed pitching. Let’s not go the route of McCusker who really was tearing of AAA after a couple of months last year. Let’s give him time to become a player that will contribute for multiple years.
  10. jorgenswest
    Do we know if he is practicing at any other position? Seems like you would do that for a while before getting in a game. I would think that would be especially true of first base if he hasn’t played there before. That position requires some skill and footwork that you don’t practice elsewhere.
  11. jorgenswest
    Ryan had 9 strike outs and no walks again. That is three such starts in a row. The walk rates are way up this year with the ABS shrunken strike zone. Ryan is going to give up some home runs but I will take that over all of these walks we are seeing this year.
  12. jorgenswest
    Rojas doesn’t fit the model. He was injured in the spring and then did a rehab in Fort Myers before starting to build his workload in AAA. That building was interrupted by some call ups to the majors. The Twins give their starters a major league rest routine in AAA. They did in AA last year also but it is harder to track this year with the number of pitchers that have moved up. Looking at the game logs Gallagher, Matthews, Prielipp and Morris were all getting the normal days rest routine when they were starting in the minors this year. Gallagher was in that routine in AA also. I don’t see anywhere in Morris’ game logs where he was used this way last year. He was getting a starter’s routine. I am sure Rojas would have part of that group once he did what would have been his spring training build up. The pitchers they use in that 4 day role in the upper minors are the tier they view behind the starters but want to stay somewhat stretched out on a regular routine. Adams was one last year. Paredes has been one that has stayed stretched out that otherwise would have been in the pen. I think Rojas’ use in his few minor league appearances were for the purpose of coming back from the hamstring injury and missing a chunk of spring training.
  13. jorgenswest
    Liam Hendriks was in a similar spot with the Twins going into his age 25 season. He did poorly as a starter. The Twins never gave him a shot as a reliever.
  14. jorgenswest
    The demand for a top player traded in season is always the current season. That won’t change. The excess value contract wise is always in those earlier arb years. That last year arb award for any top player is pretty expensive cutting his excess value. As long as there is demand in this season I think teams will be aggressive for the few top starters that are available.
  15. jorgenswest
    Doesn’t “elephant in the room” mean that everyone is aware but no one wants to discuss? The framework for a Joe Ryan trade is the deal Derek Falvey made with Jose Berrios. Get two top 100 FV50 prospects (entering the season Fangraphs had Martin 40 and SWR at 76] and then reinvest the money that Ryan would have earned back into the roster. The Twins traded 1+ seasons of Berrios and a good prospect in Chase Petty for 2 useful seasons of Sonny Gray, two good prospects and a then a comp pick for Gray.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins need another catcher. I know that Olivar has trouble controlling the running game. I am hoping he can balance that by being very good at managing the strike zone and ABS. The Twins need him. I also wonder what Jackson’s missed opportunity number has been at AAA. Does he struggle recognizing a strike as a catcher like he does as a batter? It could be the small sample and reluctance to pull the trigger and possibly be wrong on a challenge as he begins his time with the Twins.
  17. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Caratini did not miss any opportunities that game.
  18. jorgenswest
    Connor Prielipp needed help yesterday. Alex Jackson was not the help he needed. He wasn’t in his previous start either. Prielipp has started 7 games. In those 7 games catchers have missed ABS challenge opportunities 8 times. In his first 5 starts Jeffers missed on two opportunities. One was a game with a 7-0 lead. In his last two starts Alex Jackson has missed 6 opportunities. Three in each game. Yesterday it cost him two strike outs. The other count went 2-1 and instead of 1-2. Most of the ball on that pitch was in the strike zone. The one challenge Jackson did attempt failed and was a ball by 2.58 inches. With Jackson catching Prielipp has given up 11 earned runs in 8.1 innings with 6 strikeouts outs and 6 walks. In his first 5 starts he gave up 8 earned runs in 25 innings with 29 strikeouts and 9 walks. Jackson has a great pop time but a major league catcher needs to protect his pitcher. Jackson hasn’t done that and I wonder if the Twins should have known. Unlike Jeffers and Caratini, Jackson enters the season with ABS experience. He needs to be better now. Prielipp isn’t the only pitcher needing help from Jackson. He missed two opportunities with Adams yesterday and another with Adam the last time he came in for Prielipp. The most important job of a catcher has become recognizing a strike and protecting the zone for his pitcher. The Twins should not have patience with Jackson. He needs to do better or they need to look elsewhere.
  19. jorgenswest
    It is also shows their confidence in Martin or Keaschall to play CF. They both have at least some experience there. Clemens could easily fire at 2B or RF. It also shows some amount of confidence in Clemens and his athletic ability. He might not need that much time before he is playing CF adequately. I expect some mistakes early and absolutely no patience from some fans.
  20. jorgenswest
    Makes sense. They are in 17 day stretch of games. They need Prielipp to give them a little length tonight.
  21. jorgenswest
    He has no starts in CF in college or minors or majors. He played 1 inning last year for the Twins. I hope he looks good enough so that they utilize the pinch runner/center field spot differently.
  22. jorgenswest
    Thanks. He has season ending surgery for a torn meniscus in June. Seems like a big miss if placement on the 60 was necessary. He also has season ending surgery this season in May. I suppose it might be better if he doesn’t get the option so the Twins put him on the roster. In reality he can benefit from playing in the majors and then getting reset if necessary. Hopefully he will be ready for Fall League this year.
  23. jorgenswest
    I thought so also and was arguing that he needs to be on the opening day roster since it is last option year and might need a reset. I am still not sure. I know that they got a 4th option on Kenny’s Vargas for 2017. He missed 3 months due to undisclosed injury in low A in 2012. He played the last few months. It made me look back at each season for Rodriguez. 2022 stands out as he was injured June 8 and never returned. That must have been less than 90 days of active service. The Twins can’t request the 4th option until after the season he exhausted the third but I believe he meets the eligibility requirements. He likely won’t have 90 days of active service this year either but he only needs one of the five to be short of 90. I still would have traded Larnach for anything I could get and brought him up out of spring but luckily I am not in charge.
  24. jorgenswest
    Would he be eligible for a 4th option based on his injury in 2022 or 2024? It seems likely he will not have been active for 90 days in one of his 5 minor league seasons from 2022-2026. I think 2022 is most likely but with his injury history there may be more than one. If that is the case the Twins probably knew it was not his final option year.
  25. jorgenswest
    @Seth Stohs can probably correct me but I don’t think he can be put in the major league 60 day IL without being in the majors. If he were on that IL he would be accruing service time as a major leaguer. That would not be a wise decision for the Twins. It seems like there was a minor league version of that longer term IL but it had more to do with that 165 or 175 minor league player cap and not the major league 40 man.
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