jorgenswest

Is this a good use of WAR? Comparing a player that played CF quite a bit will get a positional boost just for playing CF. Larnach is getting a positional deduction for playing a corner and DH. On Fangraphs Larnach’s offensive contribution to WAR is 14.1 runs and Bader’s was 6.6. BR lists it as wins where it is 2.2 for Larnach and 1.2 for Bader. Are the Rays in the need of a corner bat or a guy who can play CF?

It didn’t work yet. They just need one of the two to make it work. The Berrios deal was a fair one made great when they took his salary slot and filled it with Gray.

I wonder if they need to make two moves. Prielipp won’t go deep in his first start back and there has been a lot of bullpen use the last three games

I agree but my post was not about an extension now. It was about not extending early and then offering a QO as compared to extending early as he entered arbitration. I think they should set a high bar for return knowing that they will make a QO.

Martin was ranked #40 entering the 2021 season by Fangraphs. Arias was ranked #37 entering the 2025 season. Martin was an FV55. Arias was an FV 50. The midseason update that trade year moved Martin to FV 50. Arias remained FV50. Arias was an FV35+ in 2024.

The 2025 midseason update on Fangraphs had them both FV50. They both moved up after the deadline. Tolle had not pitched at all during the season. Arias had hit .198 in June and July. They would have been trading for a player who hadn’t pitched and a player that was really struggling with the bat. Their value to the time was not much different than Martin and SWR except that the Twins would have given up an extra year of service time in Ryan.

If the return is two mid to back half of the top 100 you will be getting a similar return to Berrios. A player with a future value of lower tier starting position player and a pitcher with a future value of back end starter bullpen piece. These players will have a 50% likelihood of a longer term career in the majors. In order to do better they either need to hold out for an upper tier prospect or be smarter than most teams and identify an upper tier prospect that is viewed in the back half of the 100. The trading context has changed since the last decade. It is rarer to get those upper tier prospects like DeVries. Teams like the Twins can choose to hold onto their players or be willing to take a few players with a future value of a below average starter or position player as they did in the Berrios deal. I think all of the four deals are better than the return for Berrios. I appreciate@Cody Christie for setting the bar. The Twins should be holding out for these kinds of deals. If they don’t get that offer they should hold onto Ryan.

I think all of these deals are a notch above the deal for Berrios. That is at least the floor they need to seek in two top 100 prospects. The Padres deal doesn’t hit that mark but Salas is a step above either Martin or SWR at that time. I would not take less for Ryan. They need to get an overpay and I think each of these meet that threshold.

Isn’t Volpe already in arbitration making 3.475 million? Even if they did acquire him and he did well there would calls next July for him to be traded at peak value. They would be better off acquiring buy low players that are pre arbitration so they have time to reap the benefits of any turn around.

It would take a large market team that freely spends and does not see 10 million as a big commitment. It will certainly limit the return. The Twins might get a better return from a mid or small market team if they pick up that buyout. A large market team I think would pay off the contract over improving the prospects and in the deal.

Wow! Great game! Getting to watch games like this is why I am a baseball fan. I am here for the 162.

No one is going to offer a one year deal. I am assuming you get that 15 by comparing to an AAV. Any long term deal is going to have decline phase seasons built in. Maybe he gets offered 5/75 or 5/85. A good part of that value is buying his age 30 and 31 seasons. While it is an overpay compared to an AAV that will include his decline, I don’t believe it is out of line with his value for age 30 season. The point of the blog is that you can’t compare a one year deal to AAVs of longer deals that include either arbitration or decline phase seasons. I think that is what you are doing when comparing to 15. The Braves can pay Murphy 15 next year because they overpaid in his arb years. The Phillies paid Realmuto 23.875 million at the end of his first long term deal at ages 33 and 34. He wasn’t worth it those years. He was more than worth it earlier in the deal. Now he gets paid 15 million ages 35 to 37 in clear decline.

Wow! 23 Million! The Twins would be crazy to offer that contract. The Twins did not choose to extend Ryan Jeffers as he was entering arbitration. They could have at that point paying him a somewhat more than he would have received in his arb years and then probably getting a break on the early free agent years. I wondered how his salary from Arb through first year of free agency would compare to a catcher that signed an extension heading into their arb years. Here is a comparison to Sean Murphy who signed an extension after the 22 off season and just entering his 3 arbitration seasons. Jeffers Murphy Arb1 2.425M 4M Arb2 4.55M 9M Arb3 6.7M 15M QO. ~23M. FA1 15M The Braves will pay Murphy 43 million over those 4 years. The Twins would pay Jeffers 36.675 over those 4 years. The Braves bought high on Murphy after they traded for him but that is the risk and potential reward of the extension. He has really struggled since the 2023 season. The Twins were conservative with Jeffers even after an OPS+ of 133 heading into arbitration. A Murphy like extensions at that time would not have been way out of line. That 23 million is a one year deal. It comes after saving and getting a bargain the previous three years while in arbitration. If the Twins are going to play it safe and not offer extensions the other piece of it should be a willingness to make a qualifying offer on the other end. In the end it is a cost saving looking at that 4 year window. It has the safety of not making a commitment in case of a career changing injury or significant drop in production. Comparing a one year QO to AAVs of players who have arb years or decline phase seasons embedded into that AAV doesn’t make sense. All of those AAVs have seasons built in are not peak value. I would argue that Jeffers is in his prime this year and next. They have been getting bargains the last three seasons. Be willing to pay up for one more season in his prime.

Along with the 6,5 million is a 3.5 million buy out. I would move him before Jeffers and offer Jeffers a QO if they can’t get a player equivalent to that in return. I really don’t think that money is out of in a one year deal. Jeffers won’t get an AAV at that level but the bulk of the value of a 5 year deal is going to come in the first few years.

You are correct on the velocity. He started in the 94s and ended in the 92s.

How much meaning is there for slash stat lines in a 6 week sample?

The Twins don’t need to be buyers or sellers. They need to be opportunists. Every player has value to this team. No one should be traded for whatever they can get. Any player should be traded if a team offers significantly beyond that value. I would trade both Jeffers and Caratini if those deals were overpays. I would trade Ryan if an offer is presented that is beyond his significant value to this team. Bell has value as they compete for a wild card spot but he also has the lowest return bar to me. I think there is value in giving Wallner one last chance to show he is the hitter we have seen in previous seasons. He is the closest to that the best they can get bar.

I would have thought so also. It is hard to resolve why the majority of starters individually have lower OPS against with Jeffers catching than Jackson or Caratini. I wrote about it when Jeffers went down. I need to update but a quick look and the pitchers seem to pitch better with Jeffers. His overall line doesn’t look that good because he has caught Woods Richardson more than any other Twins pitcher and though SWR performed best with Jeffers no catcher could help him. Caratini catches Ryan more than any other pitcher. I do believe that catchers vary in their ability to manage a games game and a pitcher. It is difficult to measure and catcher ERA is all but useless. There is so much bias when one catcher has Ryan the most and the other SWR. Is that coincidence or does the staff trust Jeffers more and gives him more of the tougher assignments? Is it possible that Jeffers handles the game and the starter better than the other two?

Yes. They did that with the bullpen last year. It really counts on Jackson bringing major league caliber defense behind the plate.

All significant free agents sign contracts where the last few years of those deals look bad. It might be worth it. It is so hard to build a playoff caliber starting rotation from pitchers in their first 6 years of control. Teams like Minnesota really don’t get 6. They get 5 and if they want to sell at peak value they get 4. In Ryan’s case and many others those first few years are not playoff caliber. Joe wasn’t ready in 2023 to be that playoff starter. Maybe we will trade Joe Ryan this month and give up 2 years of playoff control. Next will be Bradley. He looks playoff caliber this year. He is also entering arbitration. Another good year and after 2027 from now there will be conversation about selling high. There certainly will be a push to trade him by the 2028 deadline. How do they ever build that staff when they spend a few years of the 6 developing and then are rightly motivated to trade off the last 2 of 6 of playoff control?

Too add… It is a compensatory round pick that a team receives already. Teams do lost draft picks and that loss depends on their luxury tax status. The league could give up that part and seek other ways of balancing competition if that is their true interest.

I would be willing to trade them both and go with Jackson. The offers will have to be good ones. I think Caratini is a sell high. Catchers don’t age well and he has 10 million on his contract next year when the buy out is included. I would trade Jeffers for an FV50. Short of that I would make a qualifying offer, I get that a Jackson has no walks and he might not hit. I don’t think Caratini is a primary catcher next year and 10 million is too much for the Twins to pay a second catcher. Maybe Jackson will show in regular play that he is part of a solution for next year.

It isn’t nothing to me. These games matter. The joy of watching the 162 far outweighs hopes at a future playoff chance for me. I would trade Jeffers for an FV50 otherwise I would prefer they keep him.

Seek a Berrios level (two top 100) return at this deadline. If they don’t get that offer hold him. The key to the Berrios deal was reinvesting that salary slot in Gray the next two years. The Twins need to do that if they trade Ryan.

I would trade Caratini before Jeffers. I would even trade both if I could get an FV50 for Jeffers. We can find out if Alex Jackson can fulfill his once top prospect promise at age 30. After trading Caratini I would increase the budget and make the QO. I would far prefer spending 23 million on Jeffers than 10 on Caratini and the rest on a Josh Bell type and a couple aging relievers. Give me one above average player and three young players over four mediocre at best veterans.