clone52

You're idea is completely plausible and probably right. I want to hope for better. Maybe the investment groups are passionate about baseball and not looking to absolutely maximize their return. Not lose money, but just take their cut of the normal profits the team normally gets. According to Forbs, in 2024, the Twins had $324M in Revenue and $5.2M in Operating Income (which I think is profit)? Player expenses were $182M which means other expenses were $137M. Maybe it breaks down like this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $182M (payroll of $126M, this includes bonuses, benefits, I assume minor league players) Debt Service: $25M Other expenses: $112M Profit: $5M Lets say the new ownership groups paid $400M for 20% and lets say they said "We want 3% return on investment each year. We know we could get more elsewhere, but we want to be owners, we like the Twins and we know the value of the franchise will increase." If that was used to pay down debt service, you could theoretically do this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $195M (with the same ratio, that would $133M payroll) Debt Service: None Other expenses: $112M Profit: $17M (12 for investors and 5 for the Pohlad's) That's wildly optimistic, so slashing salary (which is more likely) could look like this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $144M (for a $100M payroll) Debt Service: 0 Other expenses: $112M Profit: $68M (about $13M for investors and $55M for pohlads). We all hoped for a sale to an ownership group who wasn't looking to suck every ounce of profit from the team. Maybe we can still hope for the new groups to also not be looking to suck every ounce of profit from the team.

How much were they paying on that debt service? If that entire debt was paid off, whatever they used to be paying for debt service. This a very simplistic view that I'm absolutely sure is not correct, but maybe its something like this. Lets say the Twins have $400M in debt. If its a 30 year loan at 5% interest, they'd be paying $26M a year on it. If the new minority owners got 20% of the club for $400M, they'd presumably get 20% of any profit the team makes. That income, along with the increased value of the team over time is their return on investment. Theoretically, that would free up $26M every year for additional payroll expenditures.

On the optimistic side, maybe the inflow of capitol can be spent. If the investors are ponying up $500M for 1/3 of the team (or something like that), if they invest it (or pay down debt), just the return theoretically should allow the team to increase payroll $25-50M a year. Without that, the Twins were probably looking at a payroll around $100M. This could keep it near where it has been. Not super exciting and the news sucks, but maybe its not all doom and gloom.

You're not wrong. There is some circular logic. If I think the team can contend in 2026, then they could have contended in 2025. But, if people think the trade deadline "decimated" the team, then the only thing the Twins have to replace is a bullpen and they can contend again. There are some other things that could help in 2026. Keaschall and Lewis being healthy and good. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper making the leap to the majors. If a new owner wants to spend a bit, finding a solid 1B to maybe fill the hole left by what a healthy Correa could have been. It seems like the "worst" trade was Varland. But Kendry Rojas might be a stud. I still think that if they want to contend in 2026, filling in the bullpen is absolutely possible.

I don't know if its a rebuild or a retool, but its not like they gutted the entire roster. They only gutted the bullpen. It is going to depend on the new owners, there are really two options. Complete rebuild and contend in 2028 or retool and contend right away. If they decide they can't contend, there could be a bigger selloff. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, or you maybe sign Ryan and/or Ober if you think they can anchor a competative rotation in their mid-30's. Jeffers, maybe even Lewis. I think they can contend quickly. Their rotation is really solid, and thats usually the hardest to get right. They have a TON of outfield options (Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalaz, Mendez). You'd have to have injury luck finally, but 3B is solid. With Lee, Keaschall and Culpepper, the middle infield is covered. Catcher is covered next year and you likely sign Jeffers longer. 1B is a big hole that if the new owner wanted to spend money, they could do a good job there. You need catching depth, so that is a spot. And finally the bullpen. You've got to get that right, but there some internal options, specifically converting SPs to RPs (Prielipp, Raya, Rojas, Culpepper, Lewis for prospects or Zebby, Festa, Abel for guys who've gotten a taste). Another option is dipping into the OF and SP prospect depth to trade for RPs. This would best be done in the offseason, rather than at the deadline.

Seems like Outman basically replaces Bader, so its almost like Stewart for 2 prospects. Too many lefties, so I wonder if Larnach or Wallner go today (or this offseason)

Depends on how they use him. If they use him in the rights spots, he can be passible. Its not like the Twins bullpen has been lighting it up. If payroll weren't an issue, what bullpen trade would you have made?

Not saying this is a great move, but everyone is negative so I'll try to look towards the positive. 15 ER in 8 IP is awful and frankly its amazing he has a 4.64 ERA. Hopefully its just a blip. I'm not going to lose sleep over who they gave up.

You'd be okay with it if he had those splits, but threw lefthanded?

At the end of the day, I don't think there will be many players that got traded that Twins fans would have liked the cost of, regardless of payroll. Blake Snell would have been nice and maybe could have been had without major prospect capital if money were no object. AJ Puk maybe could have been had. Maybe Tanner Schobel and Yunior Severino could have gotten it done. Kikuchi would have been nice, but thats probably Zebby Matthews, Severino and maybe Martin or Keirsey. Blackburn was attainable but not exciting. Erceg would have cost Lewis and Canterino and a lower prospect. Might have needed Raya instead of Lewis or Centerino. Trevor Rogers would have cost Keaschall and Martin. Not a lot I would say yes to.

You're probably right. If the Twins wanted to make a splash, it was either going to be with Big Money (not happening sadly) or with trading prospects the fans wouldn't have been happy with.

Price for Chafin wasn't bad. Twins could have have made that trade.

And take a look at the trade package the Padres gave up for Scott and Hoeing. Thats like a Twins package of Festa, Zebby Matthew, Tanner Schobel and another young single A prospect.

Pretty similar to a Twins offer of Tanner Schobel and Austin Martin. Marlins probably still take the Orioles deal. To get him, its probably would have had to offer Keaschall and Austin Martin. Either way I wouldn't call it cheap.

Scott and Nardi would be nice. Would take quite a package though. Even average relievers are returning quite a haul. It'd probably take a set of prospects that most fans wouldn't love to see go.