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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Rays system at the time was very deep. Both Ryan and Strotman were FV45 in the midseason report. That is far different from this year’s Yankee system. They had two FV45 pitchers entering the season in Bryce Cunningham and Chase Hampton. Both will probably drop in the midseason report.
  2. jorgenswest
    Marco Raya in the last month has pitched 16 innings over 9 appearances. He has 16 strike outs and no walks. It is really difficult to look at hitter or pitcher stats and make any sense of them in the very distorted run scoring environment of St. Paul. For example the Saints have a .913 OPS at home and a .777 on the road. Pitcher ERA is 5.66 at home and 4.42 on the road. Strike outs and walks matter and Raya has a had a very good last month.
  3. jorgenswest
    Clemens is prearb and providing a lot of value. His xwOBA last year was solid and it continues to be solid. I would expect he can contribute next year. He is 29th in all of baseball in slugging percentage and would be the leader on several teams. He is 59th in wRC+. He has played just over a year as a Twin and has 30 home runs and a wRC+ of 106. The league average at 2B is 97. The premise of the article is that Keaschall will not play an adequate major league second base. The Twins happen to have a guy that has performed better with the bat than any other AL 2B and has shown to have an above average glove. If Keaschall can’t play an adequate 2B the Twins have a solution for this year and probably next year. That might get them to Culpepper and Houston up the middle. Clemens is going to play somewhere. He has earned it. It doesn’t have to be 2B if Keaschall can handle the position. The Twins have given Keaschall plenty of time there and I am hoping he is the 2B of the future. It is a hope though. The last three times the Twins had a lead in a close game Keaschall was replaced late in the game. That isn’t a good sign.
  4. jorgenswest
    Clemens has a positive OAA at 2B over his career. If he was the Twins 2B and he maintained that wRC+ of 121 he would lead AL second basemen. Ernie Clement currently has the best wRC+ among qualified AL 2Bs at 112. The Twins have a solution at 2B if they could fix all of the other holes Clemens fills.
  5. jorgenswest
    Would you trade Wallner? They brought back Lewis. Why not Wallner? It might be the right decision to move on but I am still hoping he comes back and brings the power.
  6. jorgenswest
    There are pretty good comps for him. The Guardians traded Josh Bell in 2023 In return they took on the remainder of Jean Segura’s contract. They also received a good prospect (fv 45) in Khalil Watson who was in A ball in 2023. They needed to take Segura’s contract (a player they immediately released) for the remainder of 2023, the full season of 2024 plus the 2025 buyout to get Watson. Bell had -0.3 rWAR on a 16.5 million dollar contract at the time of the trade. Watson is now their number 11 prospect. He is 23 in AAA. In 2024 the Marlins traded Josh Bell to the DBacks. Originally the deal was for a player to be named later. The Marlins chose to take cash considerations later in the year. At the time of the trade Bell had -0.6 rWAR on a 16.5 million dollar contract. Bell currently has -0.4 WAR on a 5.75 million dollar contract with a 1.25 million buyout. Maybe they can get cash considerations but that won’t help the future of this team. I think Wallner has more upside and I am really hopeful that Mendez is the real deal. Both fit best at DH. I wouldn’t wait any longer.
  7. jorgenswest
    Playing in St. Paul is so skewed that an OPS of .823 is below the team average OPS of .839. I don’t know what Fedko’s talent is based on the sample but if his ability against right handed pitching is truly reflected in his below team average OPS then I think he is going to have a really difficult time against major league right handed pitching. Slash stats need a huge sample though so he may be better than that St. Paul context .823 suggests. I suppose his upside is Austin Slater who is trying to hang on in his 10th year of a career as a short side platoon bat that can be used around the outfield with even some use in the infield. Slater was a pretty useful player for the Giants ages 26-30.
  8. jorgenswest
    Is prospect fatigue a thing? Are there actually front offices that make bad decisions due to prospect fatigue? I can’t imagine that the Twins staff is going to miss on a prospect due to fatigue.
  9. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised if Fedko has enough glove to play a major league level centerfield. I am aware that after Jenkins, Rodriguez and Roden were out he played centerfield in AAA. Similarly last year when Jenkins and Rodriguez were out he played centerfield. He played little centerfield in A ball and at UConn. The bar for a major league centerfielder is a high one. Since 2019 he has 70 starts there. Many of those are due to multiple injuries on his team. His bat and hopefully an average glove in a corner will be his ticket. That he was the option the team chose to play CF when his teams were hit by injuries is a sign he can play a corner outfield at a major league level.
  10. jorgenswest
    The kid has earned it. Now they have to play him. He also needs to take good at bats early on to get that time. I hope he gets 3 starts in the next 6.
  11. jorgenswest
    I can question it. The pitcher had a hard time throwing strikes. Caratini swung at a pitch out of the zone. Keaschall took a swing at one just about in the dirt. Both were in the second pitch. Batters should have had a real small strike zone until they had two strikes. I would have trusted Martin to manage the strike zone over Caratini and get Buxton in the box. I also don’t get it defensively if they tie it up. Who are they playing in the outfield among Bell, Keaschall, Lewis, Lee and Gray? I guess they give up the DH and put Buxton out there.
  12. jorgenswest
    Perfect way to put it. You have been consistent in your call for using those 40 man spots to see if players like Fedko can be part of the future.
  13. jorgenswest
    I admire anyone who fights for his dream riding buses in the minors into their 30s. Taylor is still chasing with a good strike out rate in spite of low 90s fastball. I do not admire those with the mean spirited posts that come with his acquisition. He was acquired from Arizona’s 40 man roster for cash. Keep it that simple. Respect the men who fight for years in the minors. Humans should not be compared to trash that comes from a dumpster.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t know about value compared to Skubal. Ryan can help a team get to game 7. Skubal helps a team win game 7. In fact if someone can acquire Skubal and get him signed they could have him grandfathered in before any possible salary cap is instituted.
  15. jorgenswest
    I agree. Right now the expectation of return should be the same as the offseason. They should expect a top flight prospect. At the deadline of two top 100 prospects like they received for Berrios should be expected.
  16. jorgenswest
    I really don’t think partial season slash stats from St. Paul give insight to major league success. The sample in season is far too small and the run scoring context of St. Paul distorts them further. I would hope they are not a key consideration as the Twins front office considers a players readiness. I would think the swing level data is valuable particularly if they can correlate to pitch shape/spin. How many major league quality pitches are these players seeing and how well are they managing the zone when they see them? I have no idea.
  17. jorgenswest
    It is harder to retain a pitcher signed at 16 in the organization. By around 21 a 40 man roster decision needs to be made. At 24 options could be exhausted. Pitchers get injured. They miss time making the decisions really difficult. The COVID lost year also impacted many. The Yankees ran out of time on Yoendrys Gonzalez though he peaked at their number 4 prospect. He wasn’t ready and they needed the spot.
  18. jorgenswest
    At the time Jeffers was injured I pulled data about how the starters had performed with the two catchers. Caratini had caught Ryan more than any other starting pitcher at that time. The pairing was successful.
  19. jorgenswest
    Why does age matter? Is there a certain age where he can’t get better? His swing rates are not improving over his time in AAA last year. I think they can get better but maybe at 26 it is too late. His swing rates are a result of really weak performance against right handed pitcher. I think he can get better against right handed pitching but maybe he can’t. He is 26. The Twins could call him up and see how he does against major league left handed pitching. He would play sparingly as he hasn’t shown this year he can hit AAA right handed pitching. I believe he is a late bloomer. I would give him this year to improve that swing rates against righties. That work can’t happen if he is short side platoon in the majors. I think McCusker is different. He was older and it didn’t look like any amount of time would result in a workable strikeout rate. He hit the ball really hard though. Maybe that would continue when he made contact in the majors. It didn’t. He was given his release. If Fedko comes up and ends this season passable against lefties and not playable on a corner against righties do the Twins then release him? He is a year older and they gave up the opportunity for him to let him develop against right handed pitching.
  20. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Fedko improve his 3:1 strikeout walk ratio against right handed pitching. His swing strikes, called strike and out of zone percentages have not improved since his time in AAA last year. They are slightly worse. I think he could help the Twins playing a corner against a left handed pitcher. He has played centerfield out of necessity when Rodriguez, Jenkins and Roden went down. He played a few games at 2B out of necessity. I don’t think those are spots he can play in the major leagues. If they do want to bring him to play against left handed pitching in a corner I think they have to give up on the thought that he will be a complete player that you can count on to stay in the game against right handed pitching. I would give him more time. Maybe in the next two months he actually does improve of those swing rates. I’d that happens it is probably a sign he is managing the zone better against right handed pitching. Let’s not go the route of McCusker who really was tearing of AAA after a couple of months last year. Let’s give him time to become a player that will contribute for multiple years.
  21. jorgenswest
    Do we know if he is practicing at any other position? Seems like you would do that for a while before getting in a game. I would think that would be especially true of first base if he hasn’t played there before. That position requires some skill and footwork that you don’t practice elsewhere.
  22. jorgenswest
    Ryan had 9 strike outs and no walks again. That is three such starts in a row. The walk rates are way up this year with the ABS shrunken strike zone. Ryan is going to give up some home runs but I will take that over all of these walks we are seeing this year.
  23. jorgenswest
    Rojas doesn’t fit the model. He was injured in the spring and then did a rehab in Fort Myers before starting to build his workload in AAA. That building was interrupted by some call ups to the majors. The Twins give their starters a major league rest routine in AAA. They did in AA last year also but it is harder to track this year with the number of pitchers that have moved up. Looking at the game logs Gallagher, Matthews, Prielipp and Morris were all getting the normal days rest routine when they were starting in the minors this year. Gallagher was in that routine in AA also. I don’t see anywhere in Morris’ game logs where he was used this way last year. He was getting a starter’s routine. I am sure Rojas would have part of that group once he did what would have been his spring training build up. The pitchers they use in that 4 day role in the upper minors are the tier they view behind the starters but want to stay somewhat stretched out on a regular routine. Adams was one last year. Paredes has been one that has stayed stretched out that otherwise would have been in the pen. I think Rojas’ use in his few minor league appearances were for the purpose of coming back from the hamstring injury and missing a chunk of spring training.
  24. jorgenswest
    Liam Hendriks was in a similar spot with the Twins going into his age 25 season. He did poorly as a starter. The Twins never gave him a shot as a reliever.
  25. jorgenswest
    The demand for a top player traded in season is always the current season. That won’t change. The excess value contract wise is always in those earlier arb years. That last year arb award for any top player is pretty expensive cutting his excess value. As long as there is demand in this season I think teams will be aggressive for the few top starters that are available.
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