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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t care about ranks at all but I haven’t given up hope that Headrick will be a useful left handed arm in the bullpen. I wouldn’t remove him from the 40. I will add that teams in the IL average 5.58 runs per game this year. That run context distorts our perception of stats from both batters and hitters.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think he is a much better hitter and the combo of he and the call up are a better pairing than the decline of Farmer on the roster all year. The difference in their salaries will be so small it won’t impact the roster. The difference between either and a first year player is significant and if money matters I go with neither. I get that you would take Farmer on the roster and acknowledge the likeliness that he is likely be and provide better defense.
  3. jorgenswest
    Am I understanding correctly that you would take Farmer and his third year arb. He is at 5.85 million so he will probably be around 8 million next year? I would keep Polanco. We can both go to Fangraphs and find numbers to support out thoughts. I’m fact defense is like the varied WARs and a different metric will lead to a different ranking between Polanco and Julien. Until any of the metrics have a higher year to year correlation I think they are only valuable in three year chunks. I will leave with my Fangraphs take. I like statcast batting numbers because they are based on data that stabilizes reasonably quickly. Polanco is third on the team in xSLG behind Wallner and Kepler and fourth in xwOBA (Solano is third). Wallner is a smaller sample but has a good lead. Julien is decimal points behind in xwOBA and essentially tied for fourth. Kyle Farmer is 13th and 12th. I think the difference in their bats is more significant than the difference in their gloves. My other take is if they keep either Farmer or Polanco to opening day their salaries will keep them on the roster all season. This would be an argument to let both go and my second choice. Polanco will get injured and they will need to bring someone up like Lee or Prato or Severino. That doesn’t worry me. Farmer is more likely to stay healthy and will likely be on the 26 man most of the year. I would strongly prefer Polanco back filled by the depth they have rather than a healthy Farmer at 33 on the roster all season.
  4. jorgenswest
    He had a month between major league games. I am sure he would have benefitted from more time to work on second base but the Twins didn’t have that luxury. I am sure he put that time to use and is better for it now with that hard work ethic that Baldelli has referenced in his postgame. I really value that growth and development time and for players like Julien that list 2020 it is critical.
  5. jorgenswest
    I see it different. They both had work to do. Julien with the glove and Wallner with the strike outs. The AAA schedule with less travel and the weekly routine makes it much easier to do that work. The development time in AAA is critical.
  6. jorgenswest
    Farmer is 33. He will decline more with glove and bat. I think the risk is he will be healthy, unproductive and on the roster. His third year arb salary will likely be around 8 million and they won’t want to release him at that salary. I prefer the injury risk with Polanco where they can fill that roster spot when he is out.they have the depth.
  7. jorgenswest
    They need them all. It is OK to have good bats on the bench.
  8. jorgenswest
    I would bring him back and not take Farmer to his third year of arbitration. Farmer is at 5.85 million now and that will increase so the difference in salary between Polanco and Farmer isn’t significant. Farmer may be healthier but has no upside and is 33. To me the choice is to keep one of the two veterans or let go of both. I am keeping Polanco. They won’t have 12 position players better than him. The team will be better with him.
  9. jorgenswest
    Gallo already has a streaky power bat with much better defense. I don’t think that would be a wise switch. Kirilloff will be back.
  10. jorgenswest
    They are skipping the Friday start. Lopez and Gray can each start with an extra day of rest so that fifth starter is not needed. Keuchel is listed for Sunday. Ober could start that day on his normal rest but he may need the extra day more than the others. Varland pitched yesterday so he isn’t an option. A bullpen day is an option for Sunday if they get good starts out of Lopez and Gray. The last Keuchel start turned out to be a bullpen day with a big deficit. They need good starts from Gray and Lopez resting then pen and a really quick hook for Keuchel.
  11. jorgenswest
    As for the hitters I think the run scoring environment in St. Paul gives us a distorted perception of their performance. Chris Williams has a wRC+ of 120. That isn’t special and rather ordinary for a 1B. You mentioned Bryson Stott. His wRC+ was 152 when called up. His OPS at other levels/seasons were 146, 169, 130 and 137. That is a pretty sustained high level relative to league. Jeremy Peña is similar but not quite as strong at 138, 146 and 126 (actually higher when combined with partial same season of 152). The Twins have two players that approach those sustained numbers in Julien and Wallner. They are up already. I don’t see anyone else approaching the readiness of Bryson Stott or Jeremy Peña with sustained performance.
  12. jorgenswest
    It appeared from watching TV that Jax was not locating the ball close to where it was called. There were also just too many wasted uncompetitive pitches after he got ahead in the count. Mechanics? Injury? I suspect he will figure it out.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think comparing an organization’s 25 and under talent is more valuable than prospect lists. I would suggest that the work would be done in tiers instead of ranking. I do think ranking is helpful in getting clicks and conversation about 1v2 or 9v10 but those conversations don’t have much value particularly when looking within one organization itself where the sum of the pieces is what matters. That top tier in the central might include Luis Robert and Bobby Witt. Would Duran or Clase also be included. The next tier might include players like Greene, Bibee, Lewis, Julien and others who have shown tier 1 promise but not sustained it yet. The conversation now turns to comparing the organizations in the central and discourse about individuals and whether they have met a bar for a tier. It would also give a picture of the health of the organization as cost controlled players are extremely valuable to the teams in the central.
  14. jorgenswest
  15. jorgenswest
    Not sure how letting Jorge go is related to Wallner’s work getting his strike rate down. I can add that Farmer is not signed through 24. They do have control if they choose to bring the 33 year old back on his third year arb salary. I wouldn’t bring him back. I would exercise Polanco’s option.
  16. jorgenswest
    He did make significant strides in his strikeout rate between his first and second call up. Credit to him for the work.
  17. jorgenswest
    They will likely have 18 players with at least 100 PAs by the end of the season. They need players on option like Miranda that can step in when the opportunity comes. His wRC+ of 156 and 162 in 2021 are real and so much better than many of the AAA players people are advocating for from St. Paul. His 2022 rookie season was solid. His 2023 shoulder trouble was real and we have no idea how that changed his swing. I would not sell low. He is much more valuable as one of the 16-18 position players they will need next year,
  18. jorgenswest
    Is that typical for this time of the year? Several players have moved off the list and others haven’t established themselves. I think it would be more valuable to have lists by age instead of rookie status. The Twins rank on 25 and under talent would be much better indicator on future of franchise than a prospect rank. MLB had the Braves ranked number 30 to start the season but they have Acuna, Harris, Grissom, Strider, Elder, Stroker, Shuster…
  19. jorgenswest
    He has an option. Minimally he can be on the 40 for depth if the Twins have players returning without others going on the IL.
  20. jorgenswest
    With about 20 minutes left in the trade deadline I saw Heyman reported that the Twins were close on Tommy Pham. The Diamondbacks won the deal and I wondered about the cost. It was a 17 year old top 50 International prospect. The Twins had three of those with two similarly ranked and Ariel Castro clearly higher and would win that deal. They could have acquired Pham for Castro. Should they have done that deal? Pham since the trade deadline has an OPS of 641. Kepler 926. Gallo 1044. Luplow 984. Kepler has had most impact with a WPA of 0.41. Pham has a WPA of -0.34. The last two weeks are not at all predictive of the next two weeks but Pham has some catching up to do.
  21. jorgenswest
    Nice perspective on bench… I also like to think beyond the 26 man roster. They will likely have 18 position players with 100 PAs this year. They need more than 13 capable major leaguers to make it through the season and some capable major leaguers waiting for the opportunity in AAA while optioned. We may have felt like we waited too long but it is far better to be going to Julien and Wallner than Cave and Beckham.
  22. jorgenswest
    If I get to make the decision I would go with Keuchel. Both Gray and Lopez will get an extra day of rest even with a 4 man rotation. Maeda and Ober will enter their next start with an extra day of rest. Luplow has an option remaining so he can be optioned when they need that 5th starter. They don’t need to plan for Buxton or Kirilloff yet.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am glad I am not locked in on deciding today but I would give it to Jax. I think Pagán has a better chance of both a clean outing and a crooked number. The crooked number leads to the other team’s top set up man which is almost certainly better than Pagán or Jax. This Tuesday I would hand the ball to Pagán.
  24. jorgenswest
    Great series win against a very good team. Well done all around these last two games.
  25. jorgenswest
    I tend to agree but I can probably go back and find a similar comment I made about LaMonte Wade Jr.
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