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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    It is getting crowded but I don’t think they add Keirsey. At 26 his wRC+ at AA (120) and AAA(109) is pretty common. His experience may have allowed him to take better advantage of the tiny robo-strike zones to increase his walk rate. I think many teams already have a guy with his profile in their system. The Twins really had two in he and Stevenson. There is another Stevenson in the Phillies system. Cal is age 26, plays centerfield, has a good walk rate and OBP. His wRC+ is 123. He has had a couple of cups of coffee in the major leagues. It all looks good until you realize Jake Cave was with that AAA team also and had a wRC+ of 171. Stevenson was in the majors with Oakland and in AAA with them. In a short stint he had a wRC+ of 141 in AAA. On that team there are a handful of guys better and J.J. Bleday who has the same profile put up better numbers. Bleday was a prospect a few years back with the Marlins and did get a chance this year with the A’s with pretty poor results. I think the run scoring context of the upper minors this year gives a false impression of players particularly this that are older. There are a lot of Keirsey’s out there and I wouldn’t worry about losing him in a rule 5 draft. There will be a Cal Stevenson to pick up as a minor league free agent.
  2. jorgenswest
    Julien has the skill to be better than that number. If in his previous at bat he had even just moved the runner over with a ground out I stick with him. It was those two previous at bats where he needs to get the message that they need him to compete when there are two strikes. He has the skill to fight those close pitches off. I hope we see a better Julien come October. Maybe a message was received today. If it is me and the manager sends out his weakest hitter to pinch hit for me in the 9th it is going to shake me up quite a bit.
  3. jorgenswest
    After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position. Julien strikes out looking and Farmer is caught stealing. Second time in the game he was caught looking at strike 3. The first time was after the pitcher is on the ropes having given up home runs to the last two batters. He needs to be more competitive there and fight off a close pitch. Keep the pitcher on the ropes. He looks at far too many called strike threes. The options were awful in the 9th inning. Do you send Julien and his OPS of 423 (13 strike outs and 0 walks) against left handed pitching. I was sure a strike out caught looking would happen in that case. Do you send Vazquez and his 595 OPS against right handed pitching? It's a lose-lose situation here. The choice isn't clear cut to me. In most games I probably hope on Julien but not after his previous at bat.
  4. jorgenswest
    Concur. The Twins should expect around 18 position players to get significant playing time next year. Larnach is valuable depth with that remaining option. I think of Miranda similarly. They both will get an opportunity next year and with that opportunity they can take that step towards being a valuable regular.
  5. jorgenswest
    Going for 4 series wins in a row! That is the kind of consistency needed in the playoffs.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think the concern his 28 days (80 PAs) where it is much closer to Gallo’s at 38.8%. That is a shift from his 28.2% prior. Strikeout rate stabilizes at about 60PAs so a change in 10.6% is significant. Is it possible the league has adjusted and now he needs to adjust? I noticed you included Garlick(30 PAs) but not Gordon(11.8% in 93PAs). You also did not include Miranda(15.8% in 152PAs). Wallner has some time to make that adjustment but if his is still closer to the recent 38 than 28 they should consider alternatives in the playoffs.
  7. jorgenswest
    No
  8. jorgenswest
    Retaining Kepler and Pagán was the right decision against the wishes of many. Some were trading Polanco also. Those three are much more help than they would have received at the deadline. They were their first gamble and it looks like it will get them to the post season. The second gamble is that in house options like Varland, Funderburk, Stewart, Alcala, Paddock and perhaps Maeda will be more valauble to the pen than what they may have acquired. That is yet to be seen but many of the relief options moved at the deadline have struggled with their new teams.
  9. jorgenswest
    A guy who works so hard to get back to the majors and by all accounts is a valuable teammate. That guy deserves more respect. We can do better here.
  10. jorgenswest
    They need to find someone better in order for that to happen. I am hoping that Alcala, Paddack, Ober and Stewart will be healthy so he is not needed. The loss tonight was a team effort though. Errors. Passed balls on strikes. Running into outs on bases. In Floro’s case the inning is very different if Kirilloff makes the correct play and takes the ball to first base himself. His inning should have started with one out. The same thing yesterday where Wallner didn’t make a play when Jax entered. I think Correa also started off an inning with an error. If they make the plays tonight it is a different outcome. When they don’t, pitch counts escalate and runs score.
  11. jorgenswest
    Expect that it takes time and multiple periods of adjustment to be a successful major league hitter. Expect learning and growth to happen but it happens from periods of struggle.
  12. jorgenswest
    When does the fall instructional camp start? I would guess that might be more valuable to any of the drafted players.
  13. jorgenswest
    In defense of Jax he got Lindor to pop up with an expected batting average of .070. Instead of an out it was ruled a double. A left fielder with any kind of range makes that play. Later Stewart fights through a 9 pitch at bat. Credit to Stewart for the at bat but I also think Jax can pitch a little differently if Lindor isn’t standing on third with one out instead of two. The run expectancy of a runner on second with no outs vs bases empty and one out is very different. If the Twins make that play I don’t think the Mets score.
  14. jorgenswest
    I believe this is the first time this season where the Twins won 3 series in a row.
  15. jorgenswest
    His statcast numbers were OK to start the season. The slash stats in that sample don’t tell the story of how well he was hitting the ball. His xBA and xSLG this year are both better than Julien’s. They are both better than Castro’s. Gordon’s BABIP this year was .179. It was .340 last year and above .300 in every professional season. It would be really foolish to make any projections for the future based on the slash stats of less than 100 plate appearances this year. That doesn’t mean he can get himself ready to help in the playoffs. He has been out a long time. It is good news that he might be able to help and offer some security against other injuries.
  16. jorgenswest
    Reading the link from @USAFChief I think he would need the be on the 60 for 60 which makes me wonder how the added player would get to the 40. I guess a healthy player could be DFA’d. That could be someone like Henriquez or someone they determined they will remove in the off-season.
  17. jorgenswest
    I am curious whether his status on the IL gives them additional flexibility adding someone not on the 40 to the playoff roster. I would argue they could have released him before September 1 and chosen someone then. I guess doing it later gives them more time to see what they might need. For example if something happens that Jeffers is out for the first series they wouldn’t want to IL him but would rather add extra catcher in another roster spot.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t think BTV works with the Mets well. BTV assumes that all teams care the same about salaries. The values of the players don’t change as different teams and budget constraints are paired together. The reason that Alonso is only worth 11 is because his salary next year will be high and there isn’t a lot of excess value. While they are at it the Twins may as well as toss in Castro while the Mets toss in Lindor. They have about the same excess value. The only way the Mets trade Alonso for 2024 is if they perceive the return gives them a better chance to win in 2024. They need a catcher. Maybe a deal of Jeffers and Kepler would give them hope of a better 2024. The Twins aren’t making that deal. If somehow the Mets change do an 180 and start dumping salaries in plans of tanking for 2024 those deals might work.
  19. jorgenswest
    Are you talking about reps in game? I think the real work is reps outside of the game. You get very little reps in a game and no repetition to work on footwork and angles, I don’t know when he started that work at 1B except that it was reported at least a month before we saw him in a game. In June I think it was most prudent to spend that rep time outside of games invested in 2B or decide to scrap 2B and keep him in the minors to get him ready for 1B faster. The minor league schedule, travel and routine allows more time to get that repetition work outside of the game time. I think they needed his bat for Polanco and bringing him back to the majors as a 2B was the best decision. I also believe there are players who adapt easily to position change and are gifted with their footwork and arm action. They probably have soft hands. This isn’t Julien’s skill set. He needs the work.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is absolutely fair that the Twins utilize the few opportunities they have to option any player. I don’t believe the extra day of rest is any lasting benefit so no to a 6 man rotation. I suggested they give him a rest when the Twins had a 2 week stretch where they could have gone with 4 starters. They could have optioned him then. Rocco was asked about Ober in relief. I believe the concerns the amount of time he needs to get ready to pitch as well as being able to go back to back days.
  21. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t sell low. Get the shoulder strong. Start in AAA. The Twins will never have too many good hitters. I think they still have one in a healthy Miranda.
  22. jorgenswest
    There have been reports of Julien working at 1B going back at least a month and Baldelli addressed his hard work in the pregame yesterday. They didn’t just throw him out there without preparation. I guess one could argue they should never had him investing his efforts into 2B this year but at some point the Twins must have assessed that they were better off shifting that work to 1B. Another might argue that they are just moving him around again and he should solely focus on 2B. I don’t know what is best but he isn’t a naturally gifted fielder. He isn’t the kind of player that would be well suited in a utility role. He is going to invest time in repetition outside of games wherever he ends up playing.
  23. jorgenswest
    Half of the games are robo calls and the other half the appeals are available. At the time of the Athletic article I read there were 5.2 walks per 9 in the robo call and 4.6 in the appeal. Both numbers are up but 5.2 walks per nine is way up. There were other problems with the system including consistency between venues as well as adapting to the individual strike zone of each batter. My wonder is if this isn’t close to ready, how close is the one I see on TV. I would hope the AAA one used in actual games is better than the one I see on TV.
  24. jorgenswest
    Gallo has been the end of the bench for a while. He is pinch hit for against right handed pitchers by right handed batters. He comes in the game as a defensive replacement or a sub. According to Fangraphs he has only 27 high leverage plate appearances this year which as a ratio ranks below everyone on the roster. My guess is most of those came in April and May. He is the last player on the bench.
  25. jorgenswest
    There isn’t a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. There may be a relationship where teams in the upper and lower extremes score fewer runs. I do think there is a need for balance and replacing Arraez with at bats from Gallo and Julien upset that balance. Urshela and Miranda were also below 20% last year. A few more hitters next year with contact skills will help but they can win and score runs striking out a lot. Above all they need good hitters and Gallo hasn’t been one. He also has sat the bench as a defensive sub/pinch runner or bat at the bottom of the order much of the second half.
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