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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    At that sample slash stats aren’t reliable. They really aren’t for any split. Did you look at pitch level data for players or even strikeout rate and walk rate? They stabilize sooner and if there were a vast difference you might wonder if the player had a harder time seeing the ball. If that vast difference isn’t there I suspect the difference in slash stats is random variation due to sample. The league number are pretty close day/night with a slightly higher OPS during the day and slightly more walks and strike outs during the night.
  2. jorgenswest
    I hope that is a sign they expect Lewis and Correa back for the playoffs. Adding Luplow back to the 40 gives them the most flexibility. They can comfortably DFA him in a week if it looks like Paddack will be ready and needs a 40 man spot. On the other hand if both are out for the playoffs Luplow probably doesn’t help as much on the bench as Martin would with his versatility. The problem with Martin if they add him is that they need to be really sure they want to devote a playoff spot to him because he isn’t going to be DFA’d like Luplow can be. They will need to make a move (soon?) to get Stewart back on the 40. Henriquez? I hate to let loose a 23 year old. Moran or Sands? They both will be 26 next year but have an option remaining. Balazovic is a year younger but out of options. Celestino? He is the same age as Martin and has performed pretty similarly. After a slow start returning from injury he has a .406 OBP the last 90 days and .455 the month. I think I would bring back Stewart for one of the young pitchers. Can Gallo be put on the 60 day IL? Seems unlikely while in rehab but that could be an option.
  3. jorgenswest
    He is on the 60 day IL so he isn’t taking space until the winter. I don’t think he has time to get up to major league speed for the playoffs but that isn’t based on anything but a guess. I expect he will remain on the IL. I would suggest that any decision to DFA should be based on his 2022 performance. This year’s small sample was skewed by a BABIP of .179 which had been .300 or better in his previous seasons. Gordon’s 2023 xBA and xSLG based on the frequency and quality of contact were both better than Castro’s. I would keep both on the 40 and I expect Gordon in 2024 to be close to his 2022. If the Twins front office elects to DFA Gordon they should do so expecting the 2022 performance and assessing that it won’t be helpful to the team.
  4. jorgenswest
    Agree that it is not about the clock but I don’t think it help to put Lewis or Correa on the 60 day IL. They will not have met the minimum for the 60. I think they can DFA someone to make room on the 40 and then petition the league office as a replacement for Gallo who will have completed his 10 days.
  5. jorgenswest
    I disagree. I don’t think it was about starting a clock ticking. They still have Castro, Farmer, Polanco, Julien and Solano that can handle the infield for the remaining 9. Any new 40 man decision needs to be about the playoff roster and not the roster for the last 9 games. If they get to the playoffs and are thin in the infield they might consider Lee and Martin. They also might have Paddack and Stewart thriving that can be a real upgrade to the bullpen but need 40 man roster spots.
  6. jorgenswest
    He has the upside they will need in the ALDS and beyond.
  7. jorgenswest
    Two thoughts on Lewis… 1) It is on him to speak up if he is injured. 2) The injury already occurred on the run. It didn’t occur on the swing. Injuries happen.
  8. jorgenswest
    Willi Castro hit AAA at 21 when Cleveland traded him to Detroit at the deadline to acquire Leonys Martin. Castro had a very good season in AAA at 22 before being called up to the majors at that age. He probably was rushed to the majors but there was no alternative in 2020. Detroit released him at 25 and just over 1000 at bats. The Twins gave him an opportunity and have reaped the benefits. It can take a while before producing at this level.
  9. jorgenswest
    How many position players? I took a look at last year’s teams and six carried 14 and two carried 13. Should they hold back a starter? All teams appeared to hold back a starter for the next series. Two teams kept three of their starters. I was leaning towards 15 and maybe even 16 but I suspect I am wrong about that now. I do think I would hold back a starter. They have 6 so it could be Keuchel if Ryan, Maeda and Ober are all needed to get through the first series. The one other observation I made that I hadn’t considered. Five of the eight teams carried 3 catchers. I guess the Twins have Kyle Farmer with real major league catching experience if that emergency comes up.
  10. jorgenswest
    It could be but I think the pitching options that need he a spot on the 40 are more needed than Martin.
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins and Rocco are 29th in relievers used per game at 1.98. They use fewer relievers than every team but Texas. It helps that he lets his starters go deeper than most but that trend continues with the use of his bullpen.
  12. jorgenswest
    Last year the Guardians did not roster Civale for the wild card series. He was used as a starter in the ALDS. The Rays did roster Springs and Rasmussen and the thought was they might piggy back game 3. The reporter speculated they may both be used in game 3. They also rostered Kluber. The Mariners rostered a fourth starter in Kirby. The Blue Jays rostered four starters. The Blue Jays used a 13/13 split and the other three carried 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Should the Twins roster all 5 starters? The Rays did. The Guardians rostered 3. I think I am leaning towards four starters for the wild card series.
  13. jorgenswest
    I will add to their options Celestino. He is the same age as Martin. They have a similar wRC+ in AAA. His strikeout, walk rates and ISO are slightly better than Martin’s but virtually the same. Martin has hit more singles. If I see Martin as a candidate for CF based on AAA I don’t see how I can leave out Celestino. I guess it is easier for me to be interested in the player I haven’t seen yet over the player I saw struggle. One I am excited to see and the other I was ready to take off the 40 though they are the same age with very similar AAA performances this year.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think either Ober is the game 3 starter or resting and game 1 starter of the ALDS. It wasn’t too long ago that Rocco was asked about a relief role for Varland and Ober in a pregame show. He spoke in general about the ability to warm up quickly enough and pitch back to back and then commented about how Varland’s arm fits in that role. I also don’t think they want to burn him in long relief in game 2 and not have him fresh for a potential second round. I wouldn’t have an arm on the team in case of a blowout. They can let the starter keep pitching as they have done many times this year. Once they get 5 from the starter they can get to the end without taxing the pen.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think there is a reasonable chance Martin will come up and need to return to AAA. I believe in Martin long term but next year could be one where he goes back and forth. They should prepare Lewis for CF. The other options of Buxton, Martin, Gordon and Castro aren’t as certain. The best duo may be a Miranda with a healthy shoulder at 3B and Lewis in CF. It may be Martin in CF and Lewis at 3B. It may be Buxton playing enough CF that Lewis is at 3B. In any case Lewis needs to prepare some for CF also. I do think they have enough options that they don’t need to bring back a declining Taylor.
  16. jorgenswest
    We disagree. I think they see better pitches to hit 3-1 than 3-2. I did appreciate that last night he attacked that ball on a 2-0 count. Before last night only three Twins had fewer balls in play on a 2-0 count (Garlick, Gordon and Stevenson). That is what I want to see more. Good hitters should be ready to do damage when ahead in the count. He is a good hitter and I think he is missing some opportunities. That in a nutshell was my original point.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.
  18. jorgenswest
    Why do you suppose batters hit so much better in a 3-1 count than a 3-2 count?
  19. jorgenswest
    Both answers are based on recollection… A few years back when the AAA ended on labor day players rehabbed at the instructional site in simulated games. I would think that it would be the same now. I don’t think options are a consideration when choosing a playoff roster. It seems like teams have left off pitchers in a short series that won’t start and can’t help the bullpen. I don’t believe they have to option them and that those non rostered players can remain on the 40 while not on the 26.
  20. jorgenswest
    Julien is already so valuable and I think there is capacity for so much more. Over time he will he better against lefties. He will find a defensive home. The one area I think will have the biggest impact is his approach once he gets to three balls. Players typically do really well when the count is 3-1. The Twins as a team have a triple slash of 299/734/563. Julien is missing opportunities here. He has one hit when the count is 3-1. He rarely swings. His triple slash is 100/550/100. The result is usually a 3-2 count. The problem with going to a full count is that the OPS in this count by team is cut in half. Julien is hitting .102 with a full count. He does get a lot of walks. He also strikes out at a rate only topped by Gallo. I don’t have the number but it seems like many of those strike outs are looking. If he can adjust his approach to take advantage of those 3-1 counts he will even be more valuable. He has the skill and eye to get to that batter’s count. Now he needs to start taking advantage of it and punish pitchers in that count.
  21. jorgenswest
    Concur. It is just going to take more time because he isn’t going to get that repetition in the majors. He isn’t ready. They saw that in the spring. They don’t need to keep seeing it. He has the off season. He has next spring. He is a valuable bat against right handed pitching now. That is why they need him. Lots of guys gradually increase their ability to hit lefties over the first few years. It isn’t going to happen in months in the majors. The repetition isn’t possible. For Julien he may never get there and he will still be a valuable player on the roster. The decision to bring him up and platoon him him was the correct decision.
  22. jorgenswest
    The minors is the place to develop and he had real work to do there with the glove and the bat against left handed pitching. That work was evident entering the season and I believe the Twins hoped that he could get a long run in the minors. That changed with the Polanco injury. His bat was more than ready to hit major league right handed pitchers. Did they make the right decision to bring him up at that point or should they have let him develop further with the glove and the bat against lefties? Occasional at bats against lefties in the majors won’t move the needle at all. The travel schedule in the majors is not conducive to work outside of the games. The minors is the place to develop. In the majors you need to perform.
  23. jorgenswest
    More from @Seth Stohs list of Twin minor leaguer home run leaders. I saw Stan Holmes play on that 1983 Visalia team. His 37 home runs were nearly half the team total of 84. No one else had more than 10. Kirby Puckett hit 9. Holmes was the MVP of the 1981 College World Series for Arizona State. He played catcher and third base. He wasn’t the only ASU College World Series member the Twins drafted. Luis Lopez Lagunas played shortstop for the famed 1965 ASU team that won the College World Series. He hit his 35 home runs in his first full season in the minors. I think the remaining on the list made it into a major league game. The leader Tim Laudner played for the 1981 Orlando team managed by Tom Kelly and included several players that would make an impact on the Twins. I also want to dispel on notion that maybe these guys started hitting home runs at an older age. Lagunas was 22 when he his his 35 home runs. Holmes was 23 and the same age as Kirby Puckett when they played together in Visalia. Moe Hill was older when he hit the 41 but he was 23 when he hit 22 of Orlando’s team total of 47 home runs in 1970 and hit over 30 home runs in the three seasons leading up to the 41. They just never got a chance in the major leagues.
  24. jorgenswest
    It was a clear strike. I regret writing close.
  25. jorgenswest
    I may be back with thoughts on a few others on the list but let’s start with Moe Hill. The year he hit 41 home runs followed three season where he had hit over 30. All fours seasons were with Wisconsin Rapids where he was never promoted. He spent most of the decade at Wisconsin Rapids. You might wonder if everyone hit home runs in Wisconsin Rapids. The year he hit 41 the rest of the team combined for 59. Future majors leaguers Scott Ullger hit 5 and Mark Funderburk 3 (in 130 PAs). Why didn’t he get a chance? That’s a mystery. Former teammate Terry Ryan didn’t have an answer. Moe has thoughts. Another prolific hitter stuck in the minors more than a decade earlier is Chuck “Spoony” Weatherspoon. He had a season with 7 grand slams. That season he hit 31 home runs (the rest of the team 37), scored 121, drove in 123 and led the team in stole bases with 21. He played catcher and outfield.
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