jorgenswest

They needed a hitter. Hitters weren’t moved at the deadline. Pham was probably the best fit that actually moved. The cost was a top 50 player in this year’s international signing list. Maybe the Twins could have won the deal by sending either Hendry Chivilli or Carlos Silva but they would be pretty similar so the Mets may have preferred Rodriguez. Ariel Castro probably would have beat the offer. Should the Twins have offered Castro? I think it is more like the front office was unwilling to trade prospects rather than the budget. Too much was asked for the hitters on the market, In this case it is very unlikely that Castro will make it to the Twins while they are still in charge. I have to appreciate that they did what they felt was best for the organization.

I am taking both into spring training. There is space for both on their inexpensive contracts. If everyone is healthy and Brooks Lee has a great spring they can DFA one with little salary consideration. I would not take the 33 year old Farmer to arbitration. His salary will be harder for them to let go.

Not possible at all.

Concur. His BABIP was .179 to start the year and throughout his career in majors and minors it had been above .300. That .179 had a huge impact on his stats. His strike out rate was good at 11.8%. His expected batting average and slugging were both above league average at .247/.428. He will absolutely find a home. Stretches of 100 or so plate appearances with a very uncharacteristic BABIP happen all of the time. Sometimes we get excited about a great stretch when we shouldn’t. Sometimes we give up on a player when we shouldn’t. It gets magnified when that stretch is to start the year. The player also starts to qorry and maybe starts making adjustments they don’t need to make compounding the struggle.

It would have helped if Ryan had disclosed his injury to the team. Let’s hope the recovery is a short one.

He has had a great two months but the year is pretty ordinary. His OPS for the year is .831. That sounds really good until you realize the run scoring context in the IL is really high this year. The average OPS in the IL is .802. That really gives us distorted perception of both hitters and pitchers. Combining both his performance in the AAA and AA he is about 8% better than league average by OPS. For comparison the league ERA is the IL in about 23% greater than Randy Dobnak. Relative to league Dobnak is performing better than Chris Williams by a little and the full season of Prato by more. I would no be advocating for Dobnak’s return though relative to league he is doing better than Williams and Prato over the season. What if we ignore the abysmal performance in AA across 129 at bats? Prato’s BABIP in AA was .217 after all. Maybe it was just bad luck. That leave us with the outstanding OPS in AAA across 124 at bats. If we want to ignore the AA due to BABIP should we also ignore his AAA performance due to a BABIP of .382? As a whole, Prato’s season follows his career of a better than league average batter at the minor league level. I don’t think it would be wise to cut a partial sample in half and then throw out the bad part due to a low BABIP but make decisions based on the other part in spite of the high BABIP. I would hope the Twins aren’t looking at numbers like OPS at all. They need such a large sample to stabilize. The pitch level data and statcast data I can’t see has to tell a better story for the whole season. The Twins must have seen something encouraging in that AA data in spite of his abysmal OPS start to the year in AA. They could have brought someone else up. Prato has given them further reasons to be encouraged and worthy of consideration of an addition to the 40 man roster in the off season.

The run was scored as a result of… a 10 hopper just out of the reach of the second baseman a ground ball out and choice by Correa to get the sure out at first though it looked like he could have got the lead runner if that mattered a wild pitch advancing the runner to third another ground ball out an infield hit deflected off Duran a strike out with tying run at the plate He kept the ball on the ground. He didn’t walk anyone. Last night’s outing did not leave me with any wonderings.

I don’t disagree on “No to Dobnak”. For context though the International League ERA (5.26) is 23% greater than Dobnak’s ERA of 4.26. Relative to league that is slightly better than Chris Williams wRC+ that is 20% greater than the league. The run scoring context of the IL can give us a very different perception of the performance of Dobnak and Williams relative to the league.

I would suggest that it is not worth the time wondering. It doesn’t matter. Let’s hope he comes back strong.

It is easy to get for me to be encouraged by the performance of the Twins minor leaguers in the the July edition of minor league hitter of the month and sometimes less encouraged by the pitcher of the month. I looked for some context to go with that performance particularly with levels close to the major leagues. The run scoring context in AAA this year really distorts our perception of performance particularly if we are looking at OPS. There are more than 11 runs scored per game in the IL this year. The Saints are scoring over 6 runs a game giving them a rank of third in the league. They are 0.41 runs a game behind Louisville. Is it a surprise to know that relative to league the Saints pitchers rank better than their hitters? Pitching ranks second in runs per game at 5.07. I don’t think that rank of second fits with our perception of the Saints pitching this year. In this run scoring context it is probably gives even more weight to looking at contact rate and strike outs and walks rather than the triple slash stats that are so distorted. Wichita in the Texas League is also in a higher scoring run environment but not quite as high as St. Paul. Those numbers can give a distorted impression of performance also. The data we have available to look at from AAA and it’s run scoring context really isn’t very helpful in projecting performance in the majors. I would guess that the pitch level data the Twins must see is much more helpful.

The home run context in this era is a little higher but in 1987 Bert Blyleven had a similar two month stretch. He gave up 22 home runs across 12 starts in a stretch where he gave up a home run in 14 straight appearances to start the season, Ryan is at 21 in last 12 giving up home runs in the last 9. Frank Viola in 1986 had 10 starts where he gave up multiple home runs. Joe is at 7 this year. Home runs are more frequent in this era. In 1986 the AL home run rate was 2.1%. It has increased by almost 50% to 3.1% of plate appearances in 2023.

Fangraphs sees it differently. They have him number 11 among all staters.

I simply wanted to comment his ball in play mattered. If he strikes out as I expected there and Jeffers doesn’t get to third.

I think they have a few days to try to trade him also. He isn’t on the major league rster and I don’t think he is subject to the deadline. Anyone confirm?

There are plenty of games you might ask this question but getting the ball deep enough to advance Jeffers from second to third led to the first run. He didn’t get credit for a sacrifice fly but we needed the ball in play there.

When Kirilloff hurt his shoulder I went to baseball reference to see how often Wallner has played 1B. He has the size. I was disappointed to see he did not play there in college or the minors. He did pitch in college but has otherwise been an outfielder. He throws right handed and has an arm but no experience at 3B either. It’s possible they looked at him at first base and assessed it wasn’t a fit but they really need a Gallo alternative other than Solano while Kirilloff is out.

Our understanding of sample size is very different. Pitchers don’t have control of the random variation due to sample. In a small sample pitchers can have the same skill, effectively throw the same pitches and have very different ERAs and BABIPs. They can only control how effectively they throw the ball.

I wonder if including that his BAPiP in AA was .217 and in AAA is .398 would have added some useful context to the article beyond change of scenery. These kind of in season variances happen often even when the scenery has stayed the same. It can give the appearance a player has improved significantly. There is reason to be hopeful about Prato but patience is in order here.

That is a real risk. However there is also the real risk that Gray or Maeda will come up with an injury giving them very little iver the Twins remaining control.

Consider? Absolutely yes. If you are correct in your assessment about the return the Twins listen and say no. If Verlander is only willing to go to the Astros then the Orioles and Dodgers and maybe others will be competing for a small supply of starting pitchers. That demand may drive the return higher than your assessment.

Relievers are no more fickle than any other position. Their stat line varies more but it is random variation due to their sample size. That small sample gives the illusion that they are volatile as a group. Teams can get in trouble trading for a reliever based on a half season sample particularly if there wasn’t success in the previous 3 or 4. Dylan Floro has ERAs that have a range that varies by almost 2 runs over the last 4 seasons. His xERA is very stable atlas’s than half a run.his xFIP is also stable with a range of 0.8. His strike out rates and walk rates are pretty stable. It is BABIP and HR rates that are not stable and that home run rate need a large sample. His HR/FB rate was unsustainably low in his good ERA season as his BABIP very high in his poor ERA season. Find a reliever with a track record of good xFIPs, xERAs, strikeout and walk rates and you will have found a good reliever. There is the chance that the small sample remains will get bitten by a high BABIP but that isn’t in the pitcher’s control and only in the teams control as far as their willingness to put up a defense that limits hits on balls in play,

I am surprised Cleveland couldn’t do better. The floor on starting pitching is so low. The floor on first baseman is pretty high. I would have thought they should have been able to find a similarly ranked up the middle player or starting pitcher. I am glad they won’t have Civale in 24 and 25.

Keep him.

There is value in winning the central so I am not selling. The team as is can compete for the central. I am also not buying. They need too many pieces. I would make parallel moves. Trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda but get a similarly aged/years of control return that is a better fit positionally. Lopez for Floro was a parallel move. Lopez had that extra year of control but I am not sure they would have taken him to arbitration. There are a few veterans they might move without really selling. Gallo and Pagán are in this group. My strategy is to do little and compete for the central with the players on the roster.

The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players.