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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Helman had a good season. His wRC+ in just over 100 plate appearances was 122. That ranks 108th among all AAA players with over 100 plate appearances. Most of those players are 40 man roster decisions. Prato when looking at his full season would have a combined wRC+ of around 120. I think every team has players like Helman that they really want to keep in the organization but don’t have a 40 man roster spot. Teams in need will be able to find them in minor league free agency as the Twins did Andrew Stevenson. They wouldn’t need to trade players who don’t need a 40 man spot to acquire them.
  2. jorgenswest
    I thought so too until I looked at the 8 wild card rosters from last year. Every team had at least 12 pitchers and some 13. They all held back a starter too. These are organizations that have gained respect like the Rays and Guardians. I would guess all teams sim the match up thousands of times and weigh the impact of the 15th batter or pinch runner vs. 12 or even 13 pitchers. For some reason no team went with less than 12 pitchers.
  3. jorgenswest
    It is possible but he has never hit for power. Coming into this season his best power numbers were 13 home runs in 542 plate appearances in 2019. His ISO that year was .160. He is not going to be fast. He is not a center fielder. He hasn’t shown much power. If he is limited to corner outfield wouldn’t it be foolish of the Twins not to try to tap into more power? Is there any other path towards Larnach making an impact in the major leagues? edit: I took a look and the numbers don’t support Gladden. Larnach’s pull percentage has been pretty constant low to mid 40s since his first year in pro ball. There are a lot of seasons split between levels but it looks like his highest pull percentage was when he joined the organization in 2018. If there is any change since his first year, he goes up the middle more now. Is it possible that Gladden is wrong?
  4. jorgenswest
    Too early to tell on Headrick also.
  5. jorgenswest
    The Saints pitching staff ranked third in the league according to ERA (ERA+ 113). The batters by OPS ranked in a three way tie for 4th to 6th (OPS+ 103). For much of the season we have heard great reports of their batters yet the pitchers have performed better relative to league. It could be that the pitchers are already on the 40 and we have already seen their struggles in the majors. We haven’t seen Helman or Prato or Camargo yet. That unknown might make them more intriguing than Woods-Richardson, Sands and Headrick who were also better than league average. Sands and Headrick are also 40 man considerations going the other direction.
  6. jorgenswest
    I guess I have a little more respect for the front offices if the 8 teams that played in the wild card last year.
  7. jorgenswest
    All 8 teams took at least 12 pitchers to the wild card round last year. Some took 13. I think there might be more value in the flexibility of the 9 man pen than a roster spot for Stevenson. Taking both Paddack and Funderburk has to be a consideration. That game 3 might turn into a bullpen game with some arms already having pitched in game 1 and 2.
  8. jorgenswest
    Concur. He has a 22nd percentile fastball. Velocity isn’t his road to being effective. He has missed bats thus far.
  9. jorgenswest
    There is a baseball reason to keep Gallo around. Now that he has served out his IL days, if the Twins need to they can add a player not on the 40 but in the organization to the playoff roster. For example if an injury were to knock a catcher out of the first series they could add Camargo as an injury replacement for Gallo who is on the IL. If Farmer is injured and they could add Lee or Martin as SS insurance. I think the Boras narrative about Gallo is nonsense.
  10. jorgenswest
    Is it possible the run scoring environment of AAA gives the impression that players are dominating? Andrew Stevenson had a wRC+ of 131. Was that dominating the league? Jake Cave was 172 in 275 plate appearances. I think that was dominating. Wallner(133) and Julien(139) are similar to Stevenson. Encouraging performances but not dominating. Julien only had 170 plate appearances there. He ranked 31st among all players with 150 or more PAs. Wallner ranked 49th. I don’t think a league would have that many dominating players. Looking at other players and their St. Paul rank Prato (153) led the team. It is hard to make sense of his very poor AA(58) numbers. Weight them together and it is close to 120 for the year. Larnach was fifth at 120. The next four were a little above average (104 to 108) in Williams, Celestino, Martin and Perez. I don’t see the dominant player the Twins missed out on based on performances relative to league. Royce Lewis in his 51 plate appearance was 183.
  11. jorgenswest
    I hadn’t considered utilizing Gray with flexibility based on the outcome of game 1. It is intriguing. I think I would still start Ober in game 1 of the next series. Lopez on short rest going up against a rested team ace doesn’t seem like a good plan. Send Ober against the ace and Lopez can still start 2 and 5 on normal rest.
  12. jorgenswest
    I first will acknowledge that any decision based on AAA stat lines is pretty unreliable. Given that, I would want to see at least 200 plate appearance of sustained 35% above league average over the current year and similar high previous performance at levels below AAA. That might force his way. Brooks Lee has performed 22% below league average in AAA and 20% above league average in a much longer AA stint this year. I should add that the converse is not true. The decision really should be made based on slash stats. They take so long to stabilize.
  13. jorgenswest
    His family is a priority to him. This is his last big contract. The balance of dollars and family will guide the decision much more so than a few games in October.
  14. jorgenswest
    Mine was all hindsight. I didn’t make those arguments at the deadline. I couldn’t see Funderburk helping or a home run prone Varland adding so much in relief. At the all star break I thought they should move on from Kepler and Pagán. Who would have though their greatest need heading into the last six games would be third base and shortstop? Looking at the results my assumptions were wrong. After the deadline they have been among the better teams in the AL. They have won many series where they couldn’t even put more than two together in the first 100 games. They had what they needed on the roster already to get better. I couldn’t see it. I can acknowledge the results though.
  15. jorgenswest
    If they add a couple of relievers and let go of Pagán as many suggested, are they better? Do Funderburk and Varland get an opportunity? I would suggest the bullpen is better having not made a deal for a reliever at the deadline. The performance of the relievers in MLBTR’s top 50 trade targets is more miss than hit. The one deal it was reported by Heyman that they were close was for Pham. The DBacks ended up winning that deal right at the end. They gave up a top 50 international prospect. The Twins could have beaten that offer. Ariel Castro plus another might have done it. Pham (0.5 WAR) is performing a little better than Luplow (0.3 WAR) but your top international prospect plus more is not an insignificant cost for a marginal improvement.
  16. jorgenswest
    Results matter. Clinch the central with more than a week left in the season. Play .600 ball after the deadline. Without knowing about any moves I would have without hesitation said that it would be a successful deadline based on that criteria. They are very near .600 and will get there if they win 4 of the remaining 6 games. They have plenty of time to set their rotation and line up heading into the playoffs.
  17. jorgenswest
    That is correct. There are some similarities in path to Willi Castro. Both hit the majors before they were ready at 22. The Tigers held on to Castro through age 25. I don’t know if the Twins will have the patience for that age 25 season much less 26. The reality is that there performances are very similar in walk rate, strike out rate and OBp. Martin’s slightly high wRC+ probably comes from the extra 1.4 runs created due to stolen bases. Celestino has the better outfield arm and Martin can play second base. Is that 1.4 extra stolen base runs the difference between a player looked at with so much hope and another looked at as a DFA candidate? As for Kiersey he is two years older with a below average wRC+ in AAA.
  18. jorgenswest
    Celestino and Martin are the same age with basically the same performance in AAA. One is considered a certainty to add to the 40 while the other a candidate to be removed.
  19. jorgenswest
    Roster breakdown of the eight wild card roster from 2022. Six teams carried 12 pitchers. Two carried 13. All teams had a starting pitcher they held back. Five teams carried 3 catchers. I assume teams are concerned about the pitching staff on game 3 if the first two have heavy pitcher usage due to a close high scoring game or extra innings. I would expect the Twins to carry 12 pitchers.
  20. jorgenswest
    Celestino is the same age as Austin Martin with nearly the same performance in AAA as Martin this year.
  21. jorgenswest
    Luplow does bring a useful bat against left handed pitching. His best value might be that the Twins don’t need to be committed to his 40 man spot. It looks like they have an opening for Stewart on the 40 but if they want to add any other player on the 60 IL (Paddack?), they need that spot on the 40. Once Martin is on the 40 they wouldn’t DFA him. The would DFA Luplow if Correa and Lewis return healthy and they want to utilize his 40 man spot.
  22. jorgenswest
    I thought the open spot was created when Luplow was DFA’d and then he took that 40th spot back but your count makes sense.
  23. jorgenswest
    At that sample slash stats aren’t reliable. They really aren’t for any split. Did you look at pitch level data for players or even strikeout rate and walk rate? They stabilize sooner and if there were a vast difference you might wonder if the player had a harder time seeing the ball. If that vast difference isn’t there I suspect the difference in slash stats is random variation due to sample. The league number are pretty close day/night with a slightly higher OPS during the day and slightly more walks and strike outs during the night.
  24. jorgenswest
    I hope that is a sign they expect Lewis and Correa back for the playoffs. Adding Luplow back to the 40 gives them the most flexibility. They can comfortably DFA him in a week if it looks like Paddack will be ready and needs a 40 man spot. On the other hand if both are out for the playoffs Luplow probably doesn’t help as much on the bench as Martin would with his versatility. The problem with Martin if they add him is that they need to be really sure they want to devote a playoff spot to him because he isn’t going to be DFA’d like Luplow can be. They will need to make a move (soon?) to get Stewart back on the 40. Henriquez? I hate to let loose a 23 year old. Moran or Sands? They both will be 26 next year but have an option remaining. Balazovic is a year younger but out of options. Celestino? He is the same age as Martin and has performed pretty similarly. After a slow start returning from injury he has a .406 OBP the last 90 days and .455 the month. I think I would bring back Stewart for one of the young pitchers. Can Gallo be put on the 60 day IL? Seems unlikely while in rehab but that could be an option.
  25. jorgenswest
    He is on the 60 day IL so he isn’t taking space until the winter. I don’t think he has time to get up to major league speed for the playoffs but that isn’t based on anything but a guess. I expect he will remain on the IL. I would suggest that any decision to DFA should be based on his 2022 performance. This year’s small sample was skewed by a BABIP of .179 which had been .300 or better in his previous seasons. Gordon’s 2023 xBA and xSLG based on the frequency and quality of contact were both better than Castro’s. I would keep both on the 40 and I expect Gordon in 2024 to be close to his 2022. If the Twins front office elects to DFA Gordon they should do so expecting the 2022 performance and assessing that it won’t be helpful to the team.
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