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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Manoah and Kikuchi are also in the Polanco range. There really are many. The problem with Lynch is not his surplus value but his expected value for 2024. A lot of his surplus value is the result of four years of control spreading out that 20.1 of value. Kikuchi has almost the same AFV but it is all in 2024. Polanco would be an overpay for Bieber by surplus value but Bieber would provide a lot of value for 2024. Are the Twins seeking 2024 expected value for their staff or longer term potential value in return for salary relief? Lynch would provide depth for 2024 and some hope but a trade for Lynch is more along the lines of a trade for a prospect and salary relief. I don’t think that I so the Twins stated intention in a trade for a major leaguer.
  2. jorgenswest
    I guess that makes it more interesting. I don’t want to sign a Gallo or Morrison and then watch them remain on the roster most of the season. Is it also concerning? How motivated is Hicks? Why hasn’t anyone else signed him?
  3. jorgenswest
    Injuries will occur and they need real depth. Martin, Lee, Camargo, Miranda and Larnach can provide that depth across the diamond in AAA. It is a strength that will give them an edge and gave them an edge last year. My concern about Hicks is that if they pay him 5-6 million it might be enough for them to keep him even if his decline is evident. Farmer is similar risk of declining play but retained on roster. I would prefer Gordon as depth with Martin in AAA because I don’t think the Twins will hold onto Gordon if he doesn’t approach 2022. They can DFA him and give Martin a shot without worry of his contract. Worst case is a veteran free agent or Farmer stay healthy and on the roster all season in spite of declining lackluster play while Lee and Martin show the readiness that Wallner and Julien showed in St. Paul. Edit: Hicks isn’t a contract worry (thanks DJL44).
  4. jorgenswest
    I am all for putting Martin a bench role if he has maxed out his AAA growth. I am hoping there is more to develop at AAA as a hitter. His 106 wRC+ at AAA was underwhelming and just a tick below Celestino’s performance. I would really like to see a long stretch of greater than 130 and bring him up mid year.
  5. jorgenswest
    It is possible in the small sample of a partial season that a shift from .220 to .300 in batting average is luck often seen by a huge swing in BABiP. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats and neither half was near that sample. I do think the shift restrictions helped Kepler and perhaps allowed him to be more comfortable seeking harder contact rather trying to hit the ball to the opposite field. He did hit the ball harder in the second half but I am not sure we should expect a .351 BABiP of the second half or the .210 of the first half. Even in his 2019 season when his hard hit rate was similar to the second half but his BABiP was only .244. He also started off last year in April with a hard hit rate that matched the second half but didn’t get the same reward in stats as he did the second half of the season.
  6. jorgenswest
    Agree. I think Mariner fans would feel the same way. They would also expect the Twins to kick in more due to the premium on starting pitching.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Mariners are about as likely to trade Gilbert as the Twins Lewis.
  8. jorgenswest
    … and back to Mauer. Joe Posnanski writes about Mauer and this era of catchers in his free Friday article today. https://joeblogs.joeposnanski.com/p/free-friday-lets-talk-hall-of-fame?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
  9. jorgenswest
    … and back to Martin. A few observations from baseball reference. He hasn't shown a platoon split looking at the three years. He has played everywhere going back including 4 games at catcher in 2018. It can be easier to find a role in the majors when you have a few skills you do really well even if other skills are well below average. Perhaps you crush pitchers on one side of the platoon or you are very good defensively at SS, CF or catcher. If his bat approaches league average I think he has a career as a starter. If his wRC+ is in the 85-90 range, it is hard to imagine a role where he helps on a bench. This is his first option year and I hope the Twins are patient and use that three years if it is needed. His versatility, speed and on base skill will always be valuable as depth on the roster.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think Theo’s deal is most realistic. Trades for Luzardo or Gilbert are going to need a better headliner. If the Twins aren’t willing to part with someone better than Lee or Julien another team will step in if either of those is truly available.
  11. jorgenswest
    Options give Sands, Winder and Alcala value and time. Go back a few seasons and Sands was on the path Festa is today. Both threw 80 innings in AA at 23 years old with similar strike out and walk rates. Sands has the much better ERA but that may have been the luck of BABiP. In his 2022 top 40 prospects Gleeman wrote about Sand’s increased velocity, some trouble with control and working towards the big leagues AAA as mid rotation starter. He wrote the same about Festa this year. I haven’t given up hope that Sands can be helpful in the majors. Winder and Alcala have both shown glimpses of success in the majors. I am hopeful that health for Alcala and an improved fastball from Winder will be their turning point. Balazovic has come to the crossroads. He is going to have to be more than the last arm in the pen to stick with the club. He hit AA in 2022 at 22 with very similar numbers to Sands and Festa. Gleeman wrote about his increased velocity, walks and potential as a mid rotation starter for him also adding a chance of being at the top of a rotation. It would be awesome to see that arm in spring training this year earning an important role in the bullpen.
  12. jorgenswest
    It isn’t predictive or useful at all for projection. That wasn’t the point. It is about opportunity. I think it is reasonable to expect that Duran would face more batters in high leverage closing than he would as a starter. It isn’t a given. Someone will find examples of starters (often with poor run support) with a large number of high leverage batters faced. As you said, it isn’t predictive and that same starter could have a very different total the next year. It doesn’t vary like that for closers. Duran is more valuable as an ace. No one is trading their ace pitcher for an elite closer. They might trade their league average starter for an elite closer though. That void in closer can be difficult to fill and expensive to replace at the deadline.
  13. jorgenswest
    Doesn’t that assume that pitchers will be equally effective in both roles? If that is the case then anyone would put him in the rotation. It seems you chose to not copy forward my last sentence where if his role should change if he were a 1.5 WPA starter (Bailey Ober last year). Would you trade him for Bailey Ober? By omitting that statement you certainly change the emphasis.
  14. jorgenswest
    As a high leverage reliever over the last two years he has a win probability added of 6.57. There is only one starter with a better WPA over the last two years. Does he need to come close to that WPA to justify putting him in the rotation? If so, he will need to be in the Cy Young conversation as a starter. Would he be more impactful as a starter if he were at about 1.5 WPA per year in that role?
  15. jorgenswest
    I guess my wonder is about pitch mix. He has two fastballs with about a 3 mph difference in velocity as well as a curve ball. Will that work multiple times through the order? Ryan also has two fastballs and a breaking ball but there is a much greater difference in velocity. How does his pitch mix compare to others making the move?
  16. jorgenswest
    ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490). We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.
  17. jorgenswest
    No anger or frustration from me. Baseball is entertainment. It is not worth anger. I look forward to the season. I look forward to seeing high school start up in February where I live. I look forward to being at the minor league games. I think I prefer the Twins position where we follow prospects as they come up the ladder and watch them get that opportunity. It was awesome to see Minnesota kid Matt Wallner this summer and those big hits. I don’t need Stroman. Give me Varland. Do they even make it through the system in New York or Los Angeles before getting traded?
  18. jorgenswest
    I think this deal is more likely than any of the others I have seen suggested. Would I rather have Gilbert or Luzardo? Of course. It might take Royce Lewis to get either one of them. The Twins have the depth to replace Polanco or they are trading Kepler’s one year of control. I would do either to buy low on a pitcher who has been elite in this league.
  19. jorgenswest
    The automated strike zone was in AAA. It wasn’t consistent either varying between venues. I don’t think Rodriguez has encountered the automated strike zone.
  20. jorgenswest
    I expect a lower BABiP and regression in the batting average. I also think he will have higher than league average BABiPs.
  21. jorgenswest
    Are we all talking about the same thing when we are talking about regression? Regression is moving in the direction of a player’s mean. A player with a really high BABiP or low BABiP is a candidate for regression their slash stats because that BABiP is unsustainable. One might argue that Julien’s BABiP of .371 is pretty high and his slash stats are likely to regress. On the other hand he has a history of high BABiPs and it might be close to his mean. The Twin most likely to see his slash stats regress is Nick Gordon. His BABiP of .179 last year is way off his career trend.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would do the deal. Even if the chance of him returning to his 2022 form is around 25%, I would still do the deal. That kind of performance would have tremendous impact in the regular season and playoffs and is worth gambling on. I am sure some would argue that Falvey better be right. If Falvey goes by that measure he would rarely make a deal. Every pitcher acquisition is a risk. The upside here is worth the risk.
  23. jorgenswest
    Emilio Pagán was great unless it was high leverage. He was great when the bases were empty. They are losing that production. His OPS against in high leverage situations was .828. His OPS against with runners on base was .770. One might argue that it was random variation due to small sample but it fits his career trend of struggling in high leverage or with runners on base. Those two numbers were very close to his career number in those situations. The Twins are tasked with replacing his production. Isn’t it mostly about innings? Will giving up a few more runs in lower leverage situations impact their overall record? I think his absence creates an opportunity. The Twins need another pitcher they can count on in high leverage. Pagán wasn’t that guy. That needs to be their focus. Most of that long list of relievers will get major league innings this year. Which pitchers in that list will earn those high leverage opportunities where Pagán over his career has failed?
  24. jorgenswest
    Larnach still has an option left. The depth he provides in AAA is more valuable than any prospect he can bring back. I also think his upside would be better too. Keep him one more year. Injuries will provide opportunity. Perhaps with that opportunity he will have a Brent Rooker type breakout. A year from now he may be DFA’d for no return but I would still bet on him over whatever return they can get this winter.
  25. jorgenswest
    I really think Gordon is overlooked. He had a 0 RAA in CF in 2022. It was -3 in 2021 but he had never played there until reaching the majors. For projecting I prefer the statcast expected stats that are based on contact. His xSLG in 2022 was .464. Even in his dismal BABIP driven 2023 his xSLG of .428 was better than Farmer(.399) or Castro(.365). He also has a career RAA of 0 at both 2B and SS. The Twins may let go of Gordon but he could easily have a better career going forward than Castro and very likely Farmer. There is a reason ZIPS projects Gordon to have a better bat than Castro and Farmer next year. We have images of his poor play in CF when thrown out there in 2021. We saw the dismal numbers to start last year that were driven by an unsustainable .179 BABiP. It is hard to recall the 125 OPS+ against right handed pitching in 2022. That works in LF and certainly in CF.
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