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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I appreciate they shed light on their plans. They could have kept it in house.
  2. jorgenswest
    I agree with depth. Are you at all concerned that they might stick with the Giolito plan even through a prolonged struggle? The depth may not matter if he keeps getting the ball.
  3. jorgenswest
    Hellman’s wRC+ was 122 in AAA and 115 in AA in 2022. That is good but significantly lower than Stevenson. Ben Rortvedt was at 128. Helman ranked 108th by wRC+ of AAA players with 100 or more PAs. Several will be available as minor league free agents or rule 5 pick ups. He is playing winter ball and hopefully he will tear it up there. Helman will be valuable in a Stevenson off the 40 type role. At this point, I don’t think they should count on him to hit at the major league level.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think an analysis should look at the starter group as a whole. The starter group as a whole put up about 14.3 WAR (BR). I am not sure how Varland’s starter contribution was split but it probably pretty close to 0 either negative or positive. Lopez and Ober were at 3 or better. Together, can they account for 7 of that WAR? Ryan had 1.2 WAR. He need to take a step for towards 3. Paddack’s best season as a starter was 2.9. Between these two can they get 5 WAR? Assuming 12 WAR from those 4, they need to acquire 2-2.5 WAR. I think it needs to come from outside the organization so that they have the depth of Varland, Woods-Richardson and Festa. Gray would fit that need. A one year deal for Ryu or Maeda could fill that hole. It could be accomplished in trade. Trade Polanco to the Blue Jays in a buy low deal for Manoah. They can’t count on replacing that 5.3 with one pitcher. They shouldn’t even count on Gray being able to repeat his 5.3. It will need to be a group effort with the 4 veteran starters taking a step forward and finding an addition that will give them the depth that they will need.
  5. jorgenswest
    They have very promising young talent. They had 5 starters 25 and under last year with a lot of promise in Bibee, McKenzie, Allen, Williams and Curry with Clase at the top of the bullpen. They have Daniel Espino returning sometime midseason and certainly a factor in 2025. They almost can afford to trade Bieber. He will bring in even more young talent, Several of their young 25 and under bats from last year will be adding power as they enter their primes and have seen a few years major league pitching. Easily to join them are Rocchio and Manzardo. Like the Rays, I would never dismiss this organization from putting together a competitive team.
  6. jorgenswest
    Varland, Steer, Headrick, Funderburk, Wade Jr., Moran Gipson-Long had a cup of coffee with Detroit this year and Legumina brought us Farmer.
  7. jorgenswest
    Lots of great suggestions. Love Provus on radio. Gelnar would be my choice for TV.
  8. jorgenswest
    On Rice University… I believe the roots of the reputation for pitchers and injuries starts with the 2004 draft. Rice had 3 pitchers drafted in the first 8 picks and all 3 suffered arm injuries early in their professional careers. Their manager, Wayne Graham, was also Canterino’s manager in 2 of his 3 seasons. There have been several other pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks in Graham’s era. Ken Baugh missed his second professional season due to injury. Jon Skaggs was injured after 1 professional start and then missed his second season. Neither made it to the majors. Matt Anderson was the first overall pick in 1997. He did suffer an injury in 2002. He tore a muscle in his arm pit and some connect it to the pregame octopus throwing promotion that he had participated in with another Detroit pitcher. He never pitched well again. It seems unlikely that Rice is to blame here. I don’t see injuries to Joe Savery, David Aardsma, Norm Charlton or Bryan Price early in their professional careers either. The Twins have drafted two other of his Rice pitchers. J.T. Chargois suffered injuries. Tyler Duffey was healthy. Both were relievers while at Rice. Pitcher injuries happen. It seems unlikely that the workload at Rice is the cause and I wouldn’t blame the Twins for drafting a good arm that happened to pitch for Rice. I do think they should avoid having their pitchers participate in octopus throwing promotions.
  9. jorgenswest
    I went looking for the language and I don’t know if the language I found is up to date. It made me wonder about Severino. He signed in 2016 but did not play in the Braves system until 2017. I do not know if he was in a roster. It appears the Twins have 5 days after the last out. I also found this from the collective bargaining agreement signed this spring,
  10. jorgenswest
    Sign Ryu? 1 year at around 10 million. He returned to start 10 games after TJ. His contract would still leave plenty of space to add salary.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think the only one I would go big on is Yamamoto. I say that having never seen in pitch though. Maybe Gray at 3 years but the decline is coming, The fit I like best is Ryu coming back from Tommy John if they can get him on a one year deal. His salary shouldn’t preclude them from pursuing Yamamoto
  12. jorgenswest
    Yunior Severino was signed by the Braves in July of 2016. Does he need to be added? If that is the case I would prioritize him over Enlow and pretty even with Camargo.
  13. jorgenswest
    Just looking at stats it is an interesting comparison between Festa and Woods- Richardson who made opposite lists. Festa never made up it to 6 innings. Festa is older. In Festa’s comment you wrote about the high run scoring environment. That context was missing from Woods-Richardson’s write up. The Texas League has a high run scoring environment but the International League was higher. The strike out/walk ratio was also out of alignment between the two leagues where the IL’s rate was much lower. Adjustments to the or ozone were made the last month or so of the year. I don’t know if that improved the ratio. Festa did have a good year. Was it so much better than Woods-Richardson that they are trending in such very opposite directions? Did one make a huge jump while the other a huge drop? Was the context of the IL so skewed that it really isn’t possible to normalize the data? I think Woods-Richardson is earlier in his readiness for the major leagues while at a younger age than Festa. I expect they will be slotted as 7th and 8th starters and will be needed next year. I would rank them very close to each other in the Twins system.
  14. jorgenswest
    His walk rate was right at league average. Walks increased 20% last year in the IL last year. That is 45% than the major league BB/9. Walks per 9 in the AL has stayed about the same from 2018 (3.2 to 3.3). In the international league the rate wen from 3.3 to 4.8 in the last 5 years. The change in walk rate not only impacts walks but it results in pitchers working behind in counts and needing to give batters better pitches to hit. Our perception of performance has changed to the point where it appears the Twins having many good hitting prospects in AAA and few if any pitching prospects.
  15. jorgenswest
    He had a good seasons in AA and AAA at 21 and 22 and arrived in the majors at 22. He had a BABIP fueled (.448) 2020 and found the other side of BABIP in 2021 and 2021. As he arrived on the Twins, his path is similar to Celestino. Like Celestino, he was pushed to the majors young. He made mistakes at the plate, on the bases and in the field as a result of that rush. You might even recall Celestino’s BABIP fueled first two month of 2022 that gave false hope of his readiness. The Tigers ran out of patience at age 25 after 1007 at bats. I don’t think it was the change of scenery. I think it is the maturation of a player that takes time as he was rushed to the major league level. edit: Escobar also arrived in the majors at 22 and was rushed through the minors.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins will should plan for 7 pitchers needing to make 8 or more starts and they will probably have a 8th starter with 5. Last year Ober was number 6 and Varland 7 to begin season. If they add a starter, Varland is their best option for number 6 with Woods-Richardson and Festa following. I would Varland start in AAA and expect he will be needed in the rotation. If Woods-Richardson and Festa step it up then they might convert him to the bullpen during the season.
  17. jorgenswest
    I enjoyed today’s immaculate challenge. (10/28) It is possible to complete the grid with all Twins and reasonably represent all of the positions around the diamond. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 209 9/9: Rarity: 7 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref
  18. jorgenswest
    I think he fits as the 7th starter between Varland and Festa ready in AAA for next year. That will give him 6-10 starts if he is not passed by Festa and more if he makes the most of the opportunity.
  19. jorgenswest
    Maeda is probably valued at 14-15 million. They could go try to sign a pitcher to 15 million like Lorenzan, Morton or Perez. That presents two challenges. One challenge is that they aren’t the only team looking at these pitchers. The other challenge is to get them to agree to one year for these older pitchers. They could trade for someone projected similarly like Kikuchi. He has one year left in his contract. There would be a prospect or player cost that has some value. There is no certainty a trade partner can be found. The benefit of overpaying by making a qualifying offer is the certainty of the signing that you can’t get in free agency and the retention of prospects. Even if Maeda chooses not to accept they get that certainty before heading into free agency. The downside is the extra burden on the budget. I would let him go but I get the benefits of making the qualifying offer.
  20. jorgenswest
    Good work @Riverbrian on the catching usage. I think we need all three of Jeffers, Vazquez and Camargo next year. Love this thread and hope a few at can’t stop bantering back and forth take it to DM or create their own tampering discussion.
  21. jorgenswest
    Whichever role he lands in, he needs to find a swing and miss pitch to help with right handed batters. I think the cutter is helping him more with left handed hitters. Like Ryan, he is very fastball reliant and both he and Ryan will really freed to develop a pitch that keeps the right handed bats off balance. I think both will get there. If Varland remains fastball mix reliant, he will have pitched himself out of the rotation for lack of an effective breaking ball.
  22. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they should prioritize roster changes to increase stolen bases. They should utilize the talents they have on the roster but I am not sure they have much more that can squeeze out an 80% success rate. They can be situationally smarter. If their right handed hitters that tend towards contact are coming up it would be wise to start the runner more often to stay out of the double play. Correa makes hard contact, bats right handed and doesn’t strike out as often. Those all lead to double plays. They need to take more risks with Julien, Polanco or Lewis on base in front of him.
  23. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the league average qualifier. He had a 100 wRC+. In 2021 it was 88 in high A. He repeated high A to start 2022 and it was 121 then he played the bulk of the season in AA at 92. Last year he was league average at 100. Jeffers and Rortvedt performed better relative to league. Jeffer’s wRC+ in the minors ranged 109-203 with a AA of 151. Rortvedt was 101 in AA and AAA and 132 in high A. Last year Rortvedt was 128 in AAA. I think our perception of Rortvedt was as a defense first catcher yet perceptions of Camargo are for his bat but relative to league Rortvedt was better while coming up with the Twins. It is partly the illusion of the run scoring context in AAA last year. Camargo is improving. He needs more time to develop his bat and reduce strike outs if he is going to help in the majors.
  24. jorgenswest
    Do you think teams are going to ignore that skew in OPS given that he spent much of the year as a platoon player? In 2022 as a regular he had 165 extra plate appearances against right handed pitching and only 25 extra plate appearances against lefties. He hits lefties much better than righties. If you adjust the 2022 ratio of plate appearances to that of 2023 his OPS+ for 2022 would have been 106. I think the Twins saw that and hoped to get that level of platoon production but he didn’t dominate lefties as he had in 2022. Going the other direction if you take his 2023 numbers and scale them to that of a regular, his OPS+ is 93 and virtually the same as it was in 2022. Much of his WAR comes from his at bats against lefties. I don’t think any contender would view him as an every day SS. I do think he is valuable to the Twins in a platoon/bench even with some decline. I don’t think he has very much value in excess of his arb 3 contract though. I would be really surprised if teams would give up a significant prospect. I do think getting a return of a similarly salaried 1-1.5 WAR veteran is possible. I do think a prospect like Balazovic (out of options) or Headrick (getting old and needs a 40 spot) is possible. While we disagree about the potential return, we both hope you are proved correct.
  25. jorgenswest
    I am not trading Jeffers. I also don’t expect his numbers will be as strong next year. His slash stats were much higher than the expected batting average and slugging average based on contact from statcast. I think those are a better indicator of future performance. He may actually take a step forward next year but not get quite the same results. In that sense it might be a sell high.
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