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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe prospect rankings are out for this winter. The most recent listed in baseball reference is the 2023 that I cited. If somehow the Rockies would take this deal, I am all in. Like the Pirates had no interest in trading Rodriguez unless blown away, I really doubt the Rockies would trade Romo. They both have the same 55 potential ceiling in their field scouting score on Fangraphs.
  2. jorgenswest
    Romo was ranked 80 by BA and 84 by MLB entering last season. Ramirez is ranked 24 in the Yankee system with field grades of 40 from both Fangraphs and MLB. From MLB pipeline “Whether Ramirez can remain at catcher is another question. He lacks quickness and soft hands, so his receiving, framing and blocking skills are very much works in progress. He does have solid arm strength and keeps the running game in check but some scouts believe he's destined for first base.” Do you value Vazquez more than Trevino so you wouldn’t make the deal absent the Rockies? I just can’t see why the Rockies trade the future for two years of a catcher in the decline phase of his career.
  3. jorgenswest
    How is it a win for the Rockies? They give up their catcher of the future who is a global top 100 prospect and has an ETA of 2024 for a catcher at 31 with two years of control and wRC+ of 61, 92 and 58 over the last three seasons. Vazquez has been better in each of those seasons. The catching prospect they get in the deal probably won’t remain at catcher. It might be a deal the Twins would make if they can trade Vazquez and his full contract. They get a similar player in Trevino and a lottery ticket that Ramirez can stay at catcher. The Twins can spend on a starter with the savings on Kepler and Vazquez. Would you do this deal? It can’t happen until they find a taker for Vazquez and his full contract.
  4. jorgenswest
    It would be a sell high in Jeffers. I am guessing teams see the same batted ball data and are a little concerned that his actuals outperformed his expected numbers based on his contact by quite a bit. He was third on the Twins in slugging percentage but 10th in barrels and 9th in hard hit rate. Is it luck or skill driving the .359 BABIP? His BABIPs the previous two seasons were .269 and .259.
  5. jorgenswest
    Last year in high leverage Pagán’s had an OPS against of .828. He pitched in high leverage situations in 21.6% of the batter he faced. More than half his batters faced were in low leverage situations. A late inning reliever like Jax will see more than 50% of the batter’s faced in high leverage. A closer will be over 60%. For his career Pagán has been consistently solid in low and medium leverage and poor in high leverage with an OPS against of .845 for his career and an OPS against in the .600s otherwise. His overall numbers looked good last year when the Twins minimized his exposure in high leverage but were they very valuable? Are they worth giving a reliever entering his decline phase 2 years and 16 million? He is worth the contract if you believe the career long discrepancy between his high leverage performance and lower leverage performance is simply random and bad luck. The Twins can afford an 8 million dollar reliever even with the cut budget. They need to spend it in someone they can count on late in games. Once they commit that money they aren’t going to cut the player loose. They need to spend it wisely. I don’t think spending it on Pagán for his age 33 and 34 seasons would be wise.
  6. jorgenswest
    I agree if his reliever ceiling is simply decent. If he can be a very good reliever bordering on All Star consideration, I think that is more valuable than a decent back of the rotation starter. Does he have the pitch mix to be a mid rotation starter and see the top of a line up a third time? Would you trade Duran for a decent back of the rotation starter? I wouldn’t in spite of the inning difference. I think I would trade Jax for that starter though. As for this year he would be my 6th starter beginning in AAA. I would also find another decent starter. Prepping him as a starter will not close the door on moving him to late inning reliever.
  7. jorgenswest
    ERA isn’t a very predictive stat and catcher ERA can’t be better. It would be so hard to control the varying quality of opponent and pitcher caught added to all of the other noise in ERA. It may have been helpful years ago when pitch level data wasn’t available. I sure hope it isn’t part of what the Twins use to evaluate a catcher.
  8. jorgenswest
    Something to consider. 156 Duran 145 Gray 139 Jax 121 Lopez Those are the top 4 in high leverage batters faced. The fifth through tenth range 49 to 69. Ryan, Ober, Pagán, Jorge Lopez, Thielbar, Maeda
  9. jorgenswest
    I would add a starter and prepare Varland to be a starter. Their 6th starter will be needed to start a lot of games and he has a better chance for success than Dobnak, Festa or Woods-Richardson.
  10. jorgenswest
    Vazquez has value to the team. I would Vázquez if they can find a team to take all of his remaining contract and part with a marginal prospect. If they need to add dollars or take on a bad contract I would keep him.
  11. jorgenswest
    They may wait it out. That didn’t work out so well with Lance Lynn though. Maybe Ryu is their next target.
  12. jorgenswest
    … or Farmer. I think Farmer will be difficult to trade. So many of these deals are multiple players for one. They work in BTV but I think would lose out to other teams offering fewer players at the same value.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Mariner trade may add up but they really sending three players on the 40 for one player. Those 40 man spots have value also. I don’t think they can match another teams offer for Gilbert without including either Lee, Jenkins or Lewis plus much more. Moran was non-tendered.
  14. jorgenswest
    Quilici was a broadcaster in 1987. Kirby Puckett’s signature had a vary oversized loop for the P that made it appear like an O.
  15. jorgenswest
    Must have been a recent update. I see Polanco at 8.3.
  16. jorgenswest
    He ran out of options and time. It happens to international signings who have to start their options clock so young. He hit similarly to Martin but Martin has options remaining, I am not sure he fell behind Keirsey. His offensive numbers in AAA were much better and Keirsey was not protected in the rule 5.
  17. jorgenswest
    True. I don’t think Rodriguez should be the plan but injuries and a good spring might make it a possibility. It isn’t crazy to believe that he could be helpful.
  18. jorgenswest
    It is very possible that Julien is the best hitter of the three. There is space for all three of these cost controlled players.
  19. jorgenswest
    Julio Urias had the surgery when he was 20. He had started 15 games (plus 7 in the minors) for the Dodgers in his age 19 season. He was 24 before he started more than 10 games again and he has had success. Woodruff and the other pitchers I named above had surgery in their early 30s. Urias is probably not a good comp to rely on. He had surgery in 2017 and it was 2021 before his major league strikeout rate returned to his pre surgery level as a starter.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think this is the same surgery as Johan Santana at about same age. Johan did return after a year off. He pitched poorly and retired. Rich Harden tried to make a comeback with the Twins following surgery but did not make it back to the majors. Dallas Braden did not return to the major leagues. Chris Young did return and was an average starter by ERA the first year and better than average year the second year after return. There are teams that can afford to risk some of their payroll of Woodruff. Is it a risk the Twins should take? Will it be 2026 before he is fully back?
  21. jorgenswest
    I do wonder what their plans are for the 4 remaining spots on the 40. They could have protected a few more from the rule 5 draft.
  22. jorgenswest
    Trying to find a comp of a contender and landed in Michael Harris II. He played in High A at 20 and was in the majors by the end of May the next year. His hit tool was different but both bring a major league ready glove. He was called up early when Adam Duvall was struggling with an OPS in the 500s and less than star play in CF. Harris shows more contact and steals with a lower walk rate and ISO to an wRC+ of 114 in high A. Rodriguez has more power and walks with the increased strikeouts that go with that profile. His wRC+ was 145 last year and 196 the previous year. A Twins comp might be Kirby Puckett who had a major league ready glove and jumped up to the majors on May 8 in the season after A-Ball. Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks also arrived young with a major league ready glove but their high A performance was not near a 145 wRC+. I am not sure it is a good idea but it isn’t a crazy one. Now that he is on the 40 Rodriguez is close. One difference between Rodriguez and the other recent Twin prospects is the major league ready glove part.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they need to give up a prospect. I think a parallel trade of players that have had chances in the majors without significant success will be sufficient. Moran doesn’t feel like an overpay nor does Alcala feel like too little. Larnach, Miranda, Gordon, Balazovic also fit as similarly aged players that have shown glimpses of their upside. The view of these players and their potential will really vary by team but one might fit the Astros. edit: Moran will miss 2024 to Tommy John surgery. The Twins have nontendered him and hope to sign him to a two year minor league free agent contract.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think the most likely player to be non-tendered is Farmer if they can’t make a trade prior to Friday. There are no great shortstop options in free agency but there are plenty of stop gap options and I think that is how Farmer would be viewed. Rosario, Kiner-Falefa, Anderson and Mondesi are younger options. Crawford, Andrus and Hernandez are other stop gap options. Mateo may be non-tendered and is likely available in a trade for a marginal prospect. If they don’t find a trade partner by the deadline, non-tender might be the best option. Farmer has been non-tendered previously. The Reds resigned him in free agency.
  25. jorgenswest
    I think they all have value that exceeds the projected salary making them an asset to the team or in trade. Tender them all.
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