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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they would move both or meant to imply it. My thought was that San Diego has so many guys that could be a headliner for this deal compared to the Twins. If San Diego is involved they need to be ready to part with Lewis. I would look elsewhere for pitching in that case. Three years of control is too expensive.
  2. jorgenswest
    They want an upgrade from the or current shortstop Jon Berti. Berti does everything better than Farmer at a lower salary. He is a better hitter matching his bat against lefties and much better against right handed pitching. He had positive in every defensive metric at shortstop. He steals bases. They are both in decline and I would want to look for a Berti replacement also buy why would they turn to Farmer? They already have a Farmer that hits right handed pitching better and steals bases. The Twins can’t compete with the Padres. They have a shortstop prospect better than Lee in Jackson Merrill. They have surplus shortstops at the major league level that have far more value than anyone the Twins have in Kim and Tatis Jr. They also have the best catching prospect in baseball in Ethan Salas and Campusano who is a comp to Jeffers. If the Padres are really interested the only Twin that can win the deal is Lewis.
  3. jorgenswest
    Why not have them both providing depth in AAA?
  4. jorgenswest
    Didn’t he have a hamstring injury from August through the end of the season? I know they pinch hit Farmer for him but did they pinch run for him prior to that injury.
  5. jorgenswest
    He has played much more left field than center field in the majors. Is that due to his arm or circumstance or maybe both? It makes me wonder about his arm. His barrel rate of 1.9% and hard hit rate of 21.9% are incredibly low. Unlike slash stats which can take multiple seasons, statcast hard hit rate stabilize pretty quickly. It is possible to be successful in this range. Steven Kwan is an example and maybe the only real example. Kwan does it with a strike out rate at 10% and an in zone contact rate of 95%. Thompson is at 29.9% and 75%. That isn’t going to work with his hard hit rate and that data is pretty stable at his 241 PA sample. I am curious if his hard hit rate or barrel rate was significantly different in the minors.
  6. jorgenswest
    Psychologically to me watching the game. Yes. Psychologically to the batter or the next batter or the bench. I am not so sure. There is too much failure for all players in baseball for a player to get to the majors without being pretty resilient.
  7. jorgenswest
    That leaves 159 other games on the schedule. I would still try to improve the roster for those games.
  8. jorgenswest
    Would the Twins be willing to cut Bell loose and pay his salary with further decline? The Braves took on contracts and already dropped them. I am not sure the Twins would do that with Bell’s contract and he doesn’t have space for further decline. Kirilloff already had the better bat last year and he should get better, If the Twins can’t cut that contract loose I would say no. The Twins would be taking on about 22 million in salary in this deal while being relieved of Polanco’s salary. Would it be more prudent to spend that 22 million in free agency while trading Polanco for prospects and retaining Lee and Camargo?
  9. jorgenswest
    Manoah and Kikuchi are also in the Polanco range. There really are many. The problem with Lynch is not his surplus value but his expected value for 2024. A lot of his surplus value is the result of four years of control spreading out that 20.1 of value. Kikuchi has almost the same AFV but it is all in 2024. Polanco would be an overpay for Bieber by surplus value but Bieber would provide a lot of value for 2024. Are the Twins seeking 2024 expected value for their staff or longer term potential value in return for salary relief? Lynch would provide depth for 2024 and some hope but a trade for Lynch is more along the lines of a trade for a prospect and salary relief. I don’t think that I so the Twins stated intention in a trade for a major leaguer.
  10. jorgenswest
    I guess that makes it more interesting. I don’t want to sign a Gallo or Morrison and then watch them remain on the roster most of the season. Is it also concerning? How motivated is Hicks? Why hasn’t anyone else signed him?
  11. jorgenswest
    Injuries will occur and they need real depth. Martin, Lee, Camargo, Miranda and Larnach can provide that depth across the diamond in AAA. It is a strength that will give them an edge and gave them an edge last year. My concern about Hicks is that if they pay him 5-6 million it might be enough for them to keep him even if his decline is evident. Farmer is similar risk of declining play but retained on roster. I would prefer Gordon as depth with Martin in AAA because I don’t think the Twins will hold onto Gordon if he doesn’t approach 2022. They can DFA him and give Martin a shot without worry of his contract. Worst case is a veteran free agent or Farmer stay healthy and on the roster all season in spite of declining lackluster play while Lee and Martin show the readiness that Wallner and Julien showed in St. Paul. Edit: Hicks isn’t a contract worry (thanks DJL44).
  12. jorgenswest
    I am all for putting Martin a bench role if he has maxed out his AAA growth. I am hoping there is more to develop at AAA as a hitter. His 106 wRC+ at AAA was underwhelming and just a tick below Celestino’s performance. I would really like to see a long stretch of greater than 130 and bring him up mid year.
  13. jorgenswest
    It is possible in the small sample of a partial season that a shift from .220 to .300 in batting average is luck often seen by a huge swing in BABiP. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats and neither half was near that sample. I do think the shift restrictions helped Kepler and perhaps allowed him to be more comfortable seeking harder contact rather trying to hit the ball to the opposite field. He did hit the ball harder in the second half but I am not sure we should expect a .351 BABiP of the second half or the .210 of the first half. Even in his 2019 season when his hard hit rate was similar to the second half but his BABiP was only .244. He also started off last year in April with a hard hit rate that matched the second half but didn’t get the same reward in stats as he did the second half of the season.
  14. jorgenswest
    Agree. I think Mariner fans would feel the same way. They would also expect the Twins to kick in more due to the premium on starting pitching.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Mariners are about as likely to trade Gilbert as the Twins Lewis.
  16. jorgenswest
    … and back to Mauer. Joe Posnanski writes about Mauer and this era of catchers in his free Friday article today. https://joeblogs.joeposnanski.com/p/free-friday-lets-talk-hall-of-fame?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
  17. jorgenswest
    … and back to Martin. A few observations from baseball reference. He hasn't shown a platoon split looking at the three years. He has played everywhere going back including 4 games at catcher in 2018. It can be easier to find a role in the majors when you have a few skills you do really well even if other skills are well below average. Perhaps you crush pitchers on one side of the platoon or you are very good defensively at SS, CF or catcher. If his bat approaches league average I think he has a career as a starter. If his wRC+ is in the 85-90 range, it is hard to imagine a role where he helps on a bench. This is his first option year and I hope the Twins are patient and use that three years if it is needed. His versatility, speed and on base skill will always be valuable as depth on the roster.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think Theo’s deal is most realistic. Trades for Luzardo or Gilbert are going to need a better headliner. If the Twins aren’t willing to part with someone better than Lee or Julien another team will step in if either of those is truly available.
  19. jorgenswest
    Options give Sands, Winder and Alcala value and time. Go back a few seasons and Sands was on the path Festa is today. Both threw 80 innings in AA at 23 years old with similar strike out and walk rates. Sands has the much better ERA but that may have been the luck of BABiP. In his 2022 top 40 prospects Gleeman wrote about Sand’s increased velocity, some trouble with control and working towards the big leagues AAA as mid rotation starter. He wrote the same about Festa this year. I haven’t given up hope that Sands can be helpful in the majors. Winder and Alcala have both shown glimpses of success in the majors. I am hopeful that health for Alcala and an improved fastball from Winder will be their turning point. Balazovic has come to the crossroads. He is going to have to be more than the last arm in the pen to stick with the club. He hit AA in 2022 at 22 with very similar numbers to Sands and Festa. Gleeman wrote about his increased velocity, walks and potential as a mid rotation starter for him also adding a chance of being at the top of a rotation. It would be awesome to see that arm in spring training this year earning an important role in the bullpen.
  20. jorgenswest
    It isn’t predictive or useful at all for projection. That wasn’t the point. It is about opportunity. I think it is reasonable to expect that Duran would face more batters in high leverage closing than he would as a starter. It isn’t a given. Someone will find examples of starters (often with poor run support) with a large number of high leverage batters faced. As you said, it isn’t predictive and that same starter could have a very different total the next year. It doesn’t vary like that for closers. Duran is more valuable as an ace. No one is trading their ace pitcher for an elite closer. They might trade their league average starter for an elite closer though. That void in closer can be difficult to fill and expensive to replace at the deadline.
  21. jorgenswest
    Doesn’t that assume that pitchers will be equally effective in both roles? If that is the case then anyone would put him in the rotation. It seems you chose to not copy forward my last sentence where if his role should change if he were a 1.5 WPA starter (Bailey Ober last year). Would you trade him for Bailey Ober? By omitting that statement you certainly change the emphasis.
  22. jorgenswest
    As a high leverage reliever over the last two years he has a win probability added of 6.57. There is only one starter with a better WPA over the last two years. Does he need to come close to that WPA to justify putting him in the rotation? If so, he will need to be in the Cy Young conversation as a starter. Would he be more impactful as a starter if he were at about 1.5 WPA per year in that role?
  23. jorgenswest
    I guess my wonder is about pitch mix. He has two fastballs with about a 3 mph difference in velocity as well as a curve ball. Will that work multiple times through the order? Ryan also has two fastballs and a breaking ball but there is a much greater difference in velocity. How does his pitch mix compare to others making the move?
  24. jorgenswest
    ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490). We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.
  25. jorgenswest
    No anger or frustration from me. Baseball is entertainment. It is not worth anger. I look forward to the season. I look forward to seeing high school start up in February where I live. I look forward to being at the minor league games. I think I prefer the Twins position where we follow prospects as they come up the ladder and watch them get that opportunity. It was awesome to see Minnesota kid Matt Wallner this summer and those big hits. I don’t need Stroman. Give me Varland. Do they even make it through the system in New York or Los Angeles before getting traded?
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