jorgenswest

I think this deal is more likely than any of the others I have seen suggested. Would I rather have Gilbert or Luzardo? Of course. It might take Royce Lewis to get either one of them. The Twins have the depth to replace Polanco or they are trading Kepler’s one year of control. I would do either to buy low on a pitcher who has been elite in this league.

The automated strike zone was in AAA. It wasn’t consistent either varying between venues. I don’t think Rodriguez has encountered the automated strike zone.

I expect a lower BABiP and regression in the batting average. I also think he will have higher than league average BABiPs.

Are we all talking about the same thing when we are talking about regression? Regression is moving in the direction of a player’s mean. A player with a really high BABiP or low BABiP is a candidate for regression their slash stats because that BABiP is unsustainable. One might argue that Julien’s BABiP of .371 is pretty high and his slash stats are likely to regress. On the other hand he has a history of high BABiPs and it might be close to his mean. The Twin most likely to see his slash stats regress is Nick Gordon. His BABiP of .179 last year is way off his career trend.

I would do the deal. Even if the chance of him returning to his 2022 form is around 25%, I would still do the deal. That kind of performance would have tremendous impact in the regular season and playoffs and is worth gambling on. I am sure some would argue that Falvey better be right. If Falvey goes by that measure he would rarely make a deal. Every pitcher acquisition is a risk. The upside here is worth the risk.

Emilio Pagán was great unless it was high leverage. He was great when the bases were empty. They are losing that production. His OPS against in high leverage situations was .828. His OPS against with runners on base was .770. One might argue that it was random variation due to small sample but it fits his career trend of struggling in high leverage or with runners on base. Those two numbers were very close to his career number in those situations. The Twins are tasked with replacing his production. Isn’t it mostly about innings? Will giving up a few more runs in lower leverage situations impact their overall record? I think his absence creates an opportunity. The Twins need another pitcher they can count on in high leverage. Pagán wasn’t that guy. That needs to be their focus. Most of that long list of relievers will get major league innings this year. Which pitchers in that list will earn those high leverage opportunities where Pagán over his career has failed?

Larnach still has an option left. The depth he provides in AAA is more valuable than any prospect he can bring back. I also think his upside would be better too. Keep him one more year. Injuries will provide opportunity. Perhaps with that opportunity he will have a Brent Rooker type breakout. A year from now he may be DFA’d for no return but I would still bet on him over whatever return they can get this winter.

I really think Gordon is overlooked. He had a 0 RAA in CF in 2022. It was -3 in 2021 but he had never played there until reaching the majors. For projecting I prefer the statcast expected stats that are based on contact. His xSLG in 2022 was .464. Even in his dismal BABIP driven 2023 his xSLG of .428 was better than Farmer(.399) or Castro(.365). He also has a career RAA of 0 at both 2B and SS. The Twins may let go of Gordon but he could easily have a better career going forward than Castro and very likely Farmer. There is a reason ZIPS projects Gordon to have a better bat than Castro and Farmer next year. We have images of his poor play in CF when thrown out there in 2021. We saw the dismal numbers to start last year that were driven by an unsustainable .179 BABiP. It is hard to recall the 125 OPS+ against right handed pitching in 2022. That works in LF and certainly in CF.

Milwaukee made a wise decision. His BABiP was .203. His walk rate was 13.5%. That BABiP wasn’t going to continue and his walk rate would not work. The ERA looked good but virtually worthless projecting forward in season. I wonder what happened to the strike outs last year. The had been dropping slightly (28.1, 27.9 and then 27.2% in 2022). Last year in AAA it was 15.2% and 9.9% in the majors. The arm with the 27-28% has some promise as long as the walk rate can drop considerably.

Farmer fits better on the Twins better than anywhere else because he complements Julien so well. Farmer has always hit left handed pitching well above league average. He is a league average defender. Would you start Julien over Farmer against a left handed starter in order to give Julien at bats against left handed pitching? It can’t just be an occasional start if they are going to move the needle with his ability to hit lefties. Julien isn’t on the short side of the platoon. He has significant value to any team leading off against right handed pitching. He doesn’t ever need to hit left handed pitching well to be really valuable. If he can get his defense to league average then they can probably afford to playing him more against lefties. Until then he really needs to sit against lefties. That’s OK. There aren’t that many left handed starters and they are often out of the game by the 6th inning.

I think DeSclafini is the only starter they would move short of being blown away. They don’t have the depth to trade someone in their starting rotation. I don’t think a Polanco plus prospects package gets them to move one anyone from their rotation. Do the Twins want Gilbert? Offer Royce Lewis. Do they want Miller or Woo? Offer Brooks Lee and hope the Mariners believe in his readiness. I wouldn’t do those deals.

The Rice myth is getting tiresome. I believe the roots of the reputation for pitchers and injuries starts with the 2004 draft. Rice had 3 pitchers drafted in the first 8 picks and all 3 suffered arm injuries early in their professional careers. Their manager, Wayne Graham, was also Canterino’s manager in 2 of his 3 seasons. There have been several other pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks in Graham’s era. Ken Baugh missed his second professional season due to injury. Jon Skaggs was injured after 1 professional start and then missed his second season. Neither made it to the majors. Matt Anderson was the first overall pick in 1997. He did suffer an injury in 2002. He tore a muscle in his arm pit and some connect it to the pregame octopus throwing promotion that he had participated in with another Detroit pitcher. He never pitched well again. It seems unlikely that Rice is to blame here. I don’t see injuries to Joe Savery, David Aardsma, Norm Charlton or Bryan Price early in their professional careers either. The Twins have drafted two other of his Rice pitchers. J.T. Chargois suffered injuries. Tyler Duffey was healthy. Both were relievers while at Rice. Pitcher injuries happen. It seems unlikely that the workload at Rice is the cause and I wouldn’t blame the Twins for drafting a good arm that happened to pitch for Rice. I do think they should avoid having their pitchers participate in octopus throwing promotions.

I would have exchanged Camargo and Severino. Any catcher injury and he is starting at least twice a week. As for Gordon, it is hard to put out of our minds the struggle in centerfield when he was thrown into the position at the major league level. In 2022 he had a O RAA and was more than adequate. Martin may not be as ready. He also had a -1 RAA at 2B. He is a utility player. ZIPS had an OPS projection of .721 for Gordon.

Kyle Farmer for Anthony DeSclafini An underwhelming trade but doesn’t it give both teams more depth for a position where their roster is thin?

ZIPs is more useful than using 2023 statistics but that is a pretty low bar.

The risk in Polanco or Farmer is that they will decline in performance due to age or injury and the Twins will not be willing to cut loose their salary. Farmer is a risk for decline. His numbers look good last year they almost look like he improved over his previous year. It is the illusion of his use. In 2022 he was a regular and he faced a greater ratio of right handed pitching. In 2023 when the ratio shifted it appeared he improved when in reality the numbers had an increased ratio of at bats against lefties as compared to 2022. Last year his OPS+ against right handed pitching actually dropped from 92 to 87. I suppose that level would be OK if he were a plus defensively at SS but his DRS, RAA and UZR all are on the wrong side of zero over the last two years. There really isn’t space for more decline from his role of short side platoon utility player. He turns 34 in August and decline should be expected. Polanco is a risk for injury. They do have some depth so if they handle the injury by putting him on IL. They also might handle it by having him work through the injury on the roster. I think the bigger risk with injury is not the lost playing time but the poor play while working through the injury on the roster. If the Twins don’t trade either I would expect both to be on the roster all year no matter how they perform. The Twins will not let go of either salary quickly. If Farmer declines while Martin or Lee are showing readiness in AAA, I will be joining @Riverbrian in his recalling of Logan Morrison and the Twins unwillingness to cut him loose and provide an opportunity for younger players.

Good point about 2020. They gave him an extended run of three before he was an average bat. Maybe the Twins should be more patient though it is easier to be patient when you aren’t in contention.

I picked 18 because he was 18 but expand it from 16-20 over those 5 year and you will find some impactful players. It might be about a 1 in 5 chance. There are a lot of failed prospects and mediocre players in that group. Luzardo is already an impactful player. Three years of control of a impactful player should be very expensive and the Marlins should look for the single best player they can get. They can do better than a package headlined by Lee.

Mullins got his first opportunity at age 23. He was up and down for three years until he ran out of options. It was his fourth opportunity at age 26 when he had run out of options before he posted a season with a wRC+ above 100. Weren’t the Orioles quite patient with his at best poor to average performance while waiting to be rewarded that 4th major league season? As for Altuve the guy crushed it in high A (169 wRC+) and AA (153 wRC+) to earn his opportunity half way into his AA season.

I think the headline of the deal is critical and Pasquantino is a better headliner than Lee right now.. Brooks Lee was ranked 18th by MLB last year. We should be hopeful but here is some perspective. Look at the number 18s in the 5 year span 2014-2018. By now these players will have exhausted rule 5 status and options. Only one played in the majors last year. 2014 Alberto Almora (3.3) 2015 Blake Swihart (-0.3) 2016 Nomar Mazara (1.2) 2017 Lewis Brinson (-3.6) 2018 Alex Reyes (2.7) Reyes is the only one left playing. It is encouraging to have a number 18 prospect but most of these guys don’t have an impactful career. Until Lee shows solid success in the majors or destroys AAA pitching, Pasquantino is a better bet to have an impactful career. Lee’s wRC+ of 120 in AA and 78 in AAA don’t suggest an impactful career.

For perspective I go back 10 years and look at the top 10. By now the players will have entered rule 5 status and exhausted options. The Yankees in 2014 paid a huge tax to go way beyond their bonus pool. The amount they paid in bonus and tax was close to the Astros entire major league payroll for that year. The top 10 from MLB Underwhelming would be an overstatement. Huascar Ynoa, Luis Gil and Brusdar Graterol were among Twins international signings that year.

I think the Marlins will get a better headliner in the deal. Pasquantino is better than any of the 4 the proposed Twins offer. The Twins need to do better than Lee.

Aren’t Miller and Woo part of the Mariners projected 5 man rotation? Wouldn’t Hancock be the 6th starter in AAA? Ray might be ready later in the summer. I don’t see their pitching depth. Last year 13 pitchers started a game for them. I don’t see them trading from those top 6 to get Polanco or Kepler. Maybe I am missing someone.

They need someone. He was reasonably effective in a true long relief role after starting May 10 last year when his ERA was 7.96. I wouldn’t dismiss it. If they can’t find a better solution in trade, Manaea would be worth consideration.

Of your examples, I think Jeffers best fits regression. I also expect regression to the mean from Gordon.