jorgenswest

Not necessarily. Weiss will probably be DFA’d also. Balazovic was headed towards DFA sometime this spring. I am not sure about the timing but teams will have more roster space next week when they can put players on 60 day IL. Will it make it easier for a team to find space to claim him or will his waiver period end before that date making it more difficult? In any case, I don’t think he is ready to be on a major league staff that plans to contend and he is out of options. If claimed he will likely be available again.

I should have included Varland in my post. He was also ranked in TD’s 2022 prospects behind Balazovic, Winder and Sands. It looks like his stuff is going to work in the major leagues.

Is David Festa’s path to this point very different from Jordan Balazovic or Josh Winder or even Cole Sands? They excelled in AA. Rereading Aaron Gleeman’s top prospect profiles and there seem to be a lot of parallels. What will set Festa apart from them?

I would keep him as a starter as long as possible. Varland had one relief appearance in AAA. Jax had one AAA relief appearance before he was needed in 2022.

Bottom line unfortunately for their finances relative to the other teams revenue from home games hasn’t been very good over the last 5 years in spite of 3 pretty good seasons.

How many good years will it take? They won the central 2019 and 2020 and still ranked 19th in 2021. Short of the excitement of a new stadium maybe they aren’t going to rank much higher than 19th is their peak. I will add that not only did they rank 19th last year but their ticket prices relative to other teams is in the bottom 10. This is harder to find reliable data on. statista has them 29th in average ticket price, USA Today 21st and ticket city.com has them 28th based on average sales. They have lower attendance and they are taking in fewer dollars with each ticket sold in spite of winning the AL Central three of the last five seasons.

It didn’t help the finances either that immediately after the 2019 season they had no attendance. In 2021 after two winning seasons they ranked 19th like last year. It does t seem like winning has been a good formula for attendance.

The run scoring context of AAA was extreme last year. His ERA was better than the league by about the same rate as his trade teammate Austin Martin’s wRC+. TD has Martin ranked 6th though relative to league they were essentially the same. I do wonder if the ABS automated strike zone impacted pitchers with movement more than other pitchers. According to the Athletic the zone was small and inconsistent between parks. Last year, the ABS calls strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back. It was a two dimensional zone. Wouldn’t pitches with more movement be more likely to drop out of the zone before the midpoint or drop into the zone after the midpoint? The AAA ABS isn’t going to find those strikes. The rationalization, according to MLB executive VP Morgan Sword, is a 2D zone allowed the robocalls to better match the representations of what was presented to fans. I could go on more on my thought about the automated strike zone but it is crazy that you would change the strike zone to match what people are seeing on the screen. Does everyone believe the zone they see on TV we believe is accurate? Do they assume if an umpire’s call is different it must be the umpire’s failure? The reports that came out last year had me do a 180 on my hopes for an automated zone. Back to SWR I do have hope in his stuff+ and the quality of movement on his pitches. His velocity needs to be better. He is about the same age as many of the pitchers drafted in the last two years with much more experience at the upper level of the minors. I think that makes him a better bet to be successful than Lewis or Culpepper at this point and more ready to help the Twins in 2024 than Festa.

The Twins won the central leading it virtually all of the way. They had their biggest payroll ever. Where was the attendance? They couldn’t even get to 2 million. They ranked 19th and were closer to Tampa Bay at 27 than to San Francisco at 17.

The bar for a waiver claim is whether the player will provide depth in AAA. Last year St. Paul used 39 pitchers. The previous year it was 50. Many arms are needed and the claim/waive cycle is a way to build that depth. They go through position players also using 34 and 44. More attention probably should be paid to players signing a minor league deal and offered a spring training invite like Goodrum or Alexy this off season.

Not embarrassed and I appreciate the Pohlad’s. They have to be among the best ownership groups over my time in Minnesota. The Lakers and North Stars moved. Norm Green and Bob Short are slotted in on the bottom. Is there any other clearly ahead of the Pohlad’s? The Pohlad’s must be preferable to the Griffith’s. Max Winter might top the list. I think he sold to the Pohlad’s and then to Headrick. Maybe Zygi Wilf is the best? Football is hard to compare though. The revenue is shared so much more equally. Craig Leipold? Glen Taylor? I have colleagues that are fans of the A’s. They always complain about the owners. With each ownership change they move from the relief of getting rid of the last group to the realization that they are worse off now than they were before. I think there is a lot to appreciate about the Pohlad’s and their really long run of ownership of the Twins.

Perhaps we better get back to the topic. Jay Jackson has had a fascinating career. He drafter in the 9th round in 2008. By 2009 he had advanced to AAA in the Cubs organization at 20 years old. We talk about how fast Brooks Lee advanced to AAA. He was the 8th pick. Jay Jackson was picked in the 9th round (pick 281). Of all players selected and signed at 281, Jay Jackson is second in career WAR (6.9 behind Tony Gonsolin). After his first full season Baseball America had him ranked in their top 100 (98). I am not sure there is another 9th rounder that can make that claim. He has been with more teams than I want to count so I will stick to organizations. Cubs, Marlins, Pirates, Brewers, Padres, Hiroshima, Brewers again, Chiba Lotte, Reds, Giants, Braves, Blue Jays, Twins Wow! This guy must love to play baseball. Imagine the stories he has to tell. Let’s hope this is his best stop in the majors.

What is an acceptable performance for DeSclafini? 10% greater than league average ERA? 15%? How many starts do you give DeSclafini without meeting that bar?

They still had to take him. Many (including TD and Mayo) had them taking Jacob Gonzalez.

Maybe you forgot to subtract a year on Gallo who was 29 a year ago at this time. Same for Gray. Both turned your listed age after the season. Varland is in his age 26 season. There isn’t anything to accomplish in AAA. He doesn’t need to be on an innings limit. The only reason to keep him in AAA is if they have 13 better pitchers. The same probably was true of Ober last year. He may have been on an innings limit and starting in AAA would have resulted in less stressful innings. Another difference is the reduced budget. At this budget they absolutely must develop their own inexpensive under control players. They might need to take a few more lumps as those players transition to the majors.

How did you choose the ages? Last year’s players with their 2023 BBREF age and this year’s with the 2024? I wonder because I know that Gallo is off whichever day you picked during the season of play. I do see a difference. The number of position players that had success in AA or AAA last year is more than the previous. I didn’t join those calling for their call ups because I believe in the value of development in AAA. Most have or will soon have significant time in AAA. As for the pitchers I would have no argument if it were Gray and even Maeda with contracts. I can get behind those aging players. Keuchel doesn’t fit because he had to show his skill in AAA. It isn’t the same for DeSclafini. Varland is ready. Will the recent decline phase additions keep him AAA. The only way he should be in AAA is if there are 13 clearly better options in the majors. If it is close he needs the spot because he has the most upside. The same should be said about Santana and Miranda. If the Miranda is the better player he needs to be on the roster and Santana needs to go.

I hope Kepler has such a good season he is worthy of a qualifying offer. I wouldn’t extend him. Meanwhile the Twins should start preparing this spring for the outfield in 24 and 25. I think the best long term solution is Lewis. His athleticism would be a real plus anywhere in the outfield. Falvey was quoted as saying that outfield is something they would revisit for Lewis in the off-season. It didn’t surprise me that they were cautious with him returning last year in May without a spring training. If not Lewis then they really need to get Brooks Lee some reps in the outfield starting this spring.

I think the plan for all of these types of signings was to pass them through waivers. Is it possible that sometimes these deals are done knowing they will soon make another addition? Before signing someone you will keep you look at the waiver list and add a player that you will soon waive and reopen the spot. example: last year in a week one spot went from Oliver Ortega to AJ Alexy to Michael A Taylor Taylor ended up with the spot and they tried to pass Ortega and Alexy through waivers.

Somebody already has. From a John Shipley article as he was returning from injury during the 2023 season.

Lewis has the tools to be a very good outfielder. Play him LF and move Wallner to RF. Sell high Kepler and get back something that improves the pitching. They have options at 3B including Castro, Miranda, Lee and Martin. Would Lewis be willing to play outfield? I don’t doubt the confidence he has in his abilities and his willingness to help the team. I get how coming back from the injury last year without spring training they were careful about his use. He needs to be where he helps the team the most.

Brought this back because maybe this is the kind of move that works within the budget constraints. The Twins have Larnach or Gordon to send in exchange for Meyers in a trade of players whose opportunity window is closing but young enough to capture that potential. The Angels may also have a need for a left handed hitter. They added Hicks but he is better from the right side and makes Jo Adell redundant. They might be open to a swap of outfielders where the opportunity window is closing.

Huh?

How does it look if you throw out the worst season instead of the best?

Santana’s signing suggests otherwise. I have accepted the budget they have set. I don’t agree with how they allocated those dollars this off-season.

Three years of control in a good starting pitcher is tremendously expensive. He has more surplus value than any Twin in the organization other than Royce Lewis. It would take Lewis or two of their best assets to match that value like Jenkins/Varland or Lee/Jeffers. They also would need to find salary space this year perhaps by including Farmer if the Marlins would take him. Should they make a deal sending something like Jenkins, Varland and Farmer?