jorgenswest

The Mariners are about as likely to trade Gilbert as the Twins Lewis.

… and back to Mauer. Joe Posnanski writes about Mauer and this era of catchers in his free Friday article today. https://joeblogs.joeposnanski.com/p/free-friday-lets-talk-hall-of-fame?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

… and back to Martin. A few observations from baseball reference. He hasn't shown a platoon split looking at the three years. He has played everywhere going back including 4 games at catcher in 2018. It can be easier to find a role in the majors when you have a few skills you do really well even if other skills are well below average. Perhaps you crush pitchers on one side of the platoon or you are very good defensively at SS, CF or catcher. If his bat approaches league average I think he has a career as a starter. If his wRC+ is in the 85-90 range, it is hard to imagine a role where he helps on a bench. This is his first option year and I hope the Twins are patient and use that three years if it is needed. His versatility, speed and on base skill will always be valuable as depth on the roster.

I think Theo’s deal is most realistic. Trades for Luzardo or Gilbert are going to need a better headliner. If the Twins aren’t willing to part with someone better than Lee or Julien another team will step in if either of those is truly available.

Options give Sands, Winder and Alcala value and time. Go back a few seasons and Sands was on the path Festa is today. Both threw 80 innings in AA at 23 years old with similar strike out and walk rates. Sands has the much better ERA but that may have been the luck of BABiP. In his 2022 top 40 prospects Gleeman wrote about Sand’s increased velocity, some trouble with control and working towards the big leagues AAA as mid rotation starter. He wrote the same about Festa this year. I haven’t given up hope that Sands can be helpful in the majors. Winder and Alcala have both shown glimpses of success in the majors. I am hopeful that health for Alcala and an improved fastball from Winder will be their turning point. Balazovic has come to the crossroads. He is going to have to be more than the last arm in the pen to stick with the club. He hit AA in 2022 at 22 with very similar numbers to Sands and Festa. Gleeman wrote about his increased velocity, walks and potential as a mid rotation starter for him also adding a chance of being at the top of a rotation. It would be awesome to see that arm in spring training this year earning an important role in the bullpen.

It isn’t predictive or useful at all for projection. That wasn’t the point. It is about opportunity. I think it is reasonable to expect that Duran would face more batters in high leverage closing than he would as a starter. It isn’t a given. Someone will find examples of starters (often with poor run support) with a large number of high leverage batters faced. As you said, it isn’t predictive and that same starter could have a very different total the next year. It doesn’t vary like that for closers. Duran is more valuable as an ace. No one is trading their ace pitcher for an elite closer. They might trade their league average starter for an elite closer though. That void in closer can be difficult to fill and expensive to replace at the deadline.

Doesn’t that assume that pitchers will be equally effective in both roles? If that is the case then anyone would put him in the rotation. It seems you chose to not copy forward my last sentence where if his role should change if he were a 1.5 WPA starter (Bailey Ober last year). Would you trade him for Bailey Ober? By omitting that statement you certainly change the emphasis.

As a high leverage reliever over the last two years he has a win probability added of 6.57. There is only one starter with a better WPA over the last two years. Does he need to come close to that WPA to justify putting him in the rotation? If so, he will need to be in the Cy Young conversation as a starter. Would he be more impactful as a starter if he were at about 1.5 WPA per year in that role?

I guess my wonder is about pitch mix. He has two fastballs with about a 3 mph difference in velocity as well as a curve ball. Will that work multiple times through the order? Ryan also has two fastballs and a breaking ball but there is a much greater difference in velocity. How does his pitch mix compare to others making the move?

ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490). We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.

No anger or frustration from me. Baseball is entertainment. It is not worth anger. I look forward to the season. I look forward to seeing high school start up in February where I live. I look forward to being at the minor league games. I think I prefer the Twins position where we follow prospects as they come up the ladder and watch them get that opportunity. It was awesome to see Minnesota kid Matt Wallner this summer and those big hits. I don’t need Stroman. Give me Varland. Do they even make it through the system in New York or Los Angeles before getting traded?

I think this deal is more likely than any of the others I have seen suggested. Would I rather have Gilbert or Luzardo? Of course. It might take Royce Lewis to get either one of them. The Twins have the depth to replace Polanco or they are trading Kepler’s one year of control. I would do either to buy low on a pitcher who has been elite in this league.

The automated strike zone was in AAA. It wasn’t consistent either varying between venues. I don’t think Rodriguez has encountered the automated strike zone.

I expect a lower BABiP and regression in the batting average. I also think he will have higher than league average BABiPs.

Are we all talking about the same thing when we are talking about regression? Regression is moving in the direction of a player’s mean. A player with a really high BABiP or low BABiP is a candidate for regression their slash stats because that BABiP is unsustainable. One might argue that Julien’s BABiP of .371 is pretty high and his slash stats are likely to regress. On the other hand he has a history of high BABiPs and it might be close to his mean. The Twin most likely to see his slash stats regress is Nick Gordon. His BABiP of .179 last year is way off his career trend.

I would do the deal. Even if the chance of him returning to his 2022 form is around 25%, I would still do the deal. That kind of performance would have tremendous impact in the regular season and playoffs and is worth gambling on. I am sure some would argue that Falvey better be right. If Falvey goes by that measure he would rarely make a deal. Every pitcher acquisition is a risk. The upside here is worth the risk.

Emilio Pagán was great unless it was high leverage. He was great when the bases were empty. They are losing that production. His OPS against in high leverage situations was .828. His OPS against with runners on base was .770. One might argue that it was random variation due to small sample but it fits his career trend of struggling in high leverage or with runners on base. Those two numbers were very close to his career number in those situations. The Twins are tasked with replacing his production. Isn’t it mostly about innings? Will giving up a few more runs in lower leverage situations impact their overall record? I think his absence creates an opportunity. The Twins need another pitcher they can count on in high leverage. Pagán wasn’t that guy. That needs to be their focus. Most of that long list of relievers will get major league innings this year. Which pitchers in that list will earn those high leverage opportunities where Pagán over his career has failed?

Larnach still has an option left. The depth he provides in AAA is more valuable than any prospect he can bring back. I also think his upside would be better too. Keep him one more year. Injuries will provide opportunity. Perhaps with that opportunity he will have a Brent Rooker type breakout. A year from now he may be DFA’d for no return but I would still bet on him over whatever return they can get this winter.

I really think Gordon is overlooked. He had a 0 RAA in CF in 2022. It was -3 in 2021 but he had never played there until reaching the majors. For projecting I prefer the statcast expected stats that are based on contact. His xSLG in 2022 was .464. Even in his dismal BABIP driven 2023 his xSLG of .428 was better than Farmer(.399) or Castro(.365). He also has a career RAA of 0 at both 2B and SS. The Twins may let go of Gordon but he could easily have a better career going forward than Castro and very likely Farmer. There is a reason ZIPS projects Gordon to have a better bat than Castro and Farmer next year. We have images of his poor play in CF when thrown out there in 2021. We saw the dismal numbers to start last year that were driven by an unsustainable .179 BABiP. It is hard to recall the 125 OPS+ against right handed pitching in 2022. That works in LF and certainly in CF.

Milwaukee made a wise decision. His BABiP was .203. His walk rate was 13.5%. That BABiP wasn’t going to continue and his walk rate would not work. The ERA looked good but virtually worthless projecting forward in season. I wonder what happened to the strike outs last year. The had been dropping slightly (28.1, 27.9 and then 27.2% in 2022). Last year in AAA it was 15.2% and 9.9% in the majors. The arm with the 27-28% has some promise as long as the walk rate can drop considerably.

Farmer fits better on the Twins better than anywhere else because he complements Julien so well. Farmer has always hit left handed pitching well above league average. He is a league average defender. Would you start Julien over Farmer against a left handed starter in order to give Julien at bats against left handed pitching? It can’t just be an occasional start if they are going to move the needle with his ability to hit lefties. Julien isn’t on the short side of the platoon. He has significant value to any team leading off against right handed pitching. He doesn’t ever need to hit left handed pitching well to be really valuable. If he can get his defense to league average then they can probably afford to playing him more against lefties. Until then he really needs to sit against lefties. That’s OK. There aren’t that many left handed starters and they are often out of the game by the 6th inning.

I think DeSclafini is the only starter they would move short of being blown away. They don’t have the depth to trade someone in their starting rotation. I don’t think a Polanco plus prospects package gets them to move one anyone from their rotation. Do the Twins want Gilbert? Offer Royce Lewis. Do they want Miller or Woo? Offer Brooks Lee and hope the Mariners believe in his readiness. I wouldn’t do those deals.

The Rice myth is getting tiresome. I believe the roots of the reputation for pitchers and injuries starts with the 2004 draft. Rice had 3 pitchers drafted in the first 8 picks and all 3 suffered arm injuries early in their professional careers. Their manager, Wayne Graham, was also Canterino’s manager in 2 of his 3 seasons. There have been several other pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks in Graham’s era. Ken Baugh missed his second professional season due to injury. Jon Skaggs was injured after 1 professional start and then missed his second season. Neither made it to the majors. Matt Anderson was the first overall pick in 1997. He did suffer an injury in 2002. He tore a muscle in his arm pit and some connect it to the pregame octopus throwing promotion that he had participated in with another Detroit pitcher. He never pitched well again. It seems unlikely that Rice is to blame here. I don’t see injuries to Joe Savery, David Aardsma, Norm Charlton or Bryan Price early in their professional careers either. The Twins have drafted two other of his Rice pitchers. J.T. Chargois suffered injuries. Tyler Duffey was healthy. Both were relievers while at Rice. Pitcher injuries happen. It seems unlikely that the workload at Rice is the cause and I wouldn’t blame the Twins for drafting a good arm that happened to pitch for Rice. I do think they should avoid having their pitchers participate in octopus throwing promotions.

I would have exchanged Camargo and Severino. Any catcher injury and he is starting at least twice a week. As for Gordon, it is hard to put out of our minds the struggle in centerfield when he was thrown into the position at the major league level. In 2022 he had a O RAA and was more than adequate. Martin may not be as ready. He also had a -1 RAA at 2B. He is a utility player. ZIPS had an OPS projection of .721 for Gordon.

Kyle Farmer for Anthony DeSclafini An underwhelming trade but doesn’t it give both teams more depth for a position where their roster is thin?