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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    We have learned that Buxton can play centerfield. That alleviated my biggest concern entering the spring. I entered spring concerned about their line up against right handed pitching as well as their rotation depth. Those concerns remain.
  2. jorgenswest
    Varland is more valuable and no one else is nearly as valuable as either of the other two Padres pitching prospects. If they are going to top the Padres deal I don’t see a pitching prospect other than Varland that would make it work.
  3. jorgenswest
    Looks like quite a good package. It would have been hard for the Twins to best Thorpe and Iriarte. They could have sent Varland and Festa but they would have ended up thinning the depth. They could have matched Zavala and the reliever.
  4. jorgenswest
    Maeda finished second in the Cy Young voting in a year the Twins won the division. I want to lose more of those deals.
  5. jorgenswest
    Dylan Cease trade talk making the news again. The reports state the White Sox desired return from the Rangers is utility man Ezequiel Durán and pitching prospects Brock Porter and Jack Leiter. Seems like the Twins can match that with something like Castro, Festa and Gonzalez. The Padres are reportedly in the mix now as well as the Yankees. The Twins should join in. His contract this year is 8 million so it would take an increase of 4.7 million (Castro is at 3.3). If that is the stumbling block then it was a really huge miscalculation to sign Farmer. As valuable as he is to the club, his role isn’t close the value of a good starting pitcher. Let’s keep the payroll talk to other discussions though. Does the trade make the team better? What would it take to get Cease?
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree about a plan to have him start the season as the 6th starter as Ober did. That plan should have included a mid rotation starter to push him to AAA rather than a veteran back end starter that isn’t clearly better. I jump in to remind everyone of the run scoring context of the international league in 2023. This is a league where an average of 11 runs were scored per game. Varland had 15 starts and a 3.97 ERA. Only three other starters in the league with at least 15 starts had a better ERA. Of those 4 pitchers only Varland had an ERA, FIP and xFIP all below 4.00. He was arguably the best and most dominant pitcher in the IL last year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Seems like they have done pretty well. Kohl Stewart didn’t make it but Berrios has been an all star. Petty is on track to be a major leaguer. It seems like an irresponsible headline focused on the Twins. Is it honestly a Twins trend or failing? Compare Berrios to other guys drafted 32. Are there any high school pitchers drafted in that slot that will have better careers? Compare him to his draft class. There are several that didn’t make it drafted before him. Anyone recall Ty Hensley, Lucas Sims or Nick Travieso? Wouldn’t it be better to focus the title on just Soto or the challenge of going from high school to successful major leaguer?
  8. jorgenswest
    One challenge could be the number of pitches he throws per inning approaches 16.5. Joe Ryan has a similar ratio. Perhaps he would pitch to more contact as a starter to lower the number. Would bhe be as effective pitching to more contact? He might also find himself in longer at bats the second time he faces a batter. As a starter would he consistently get through 6 in a reasonable pitch count?
  9. jorgenswest
    It is encouraging that the Twins are producing enough talent in the minors to both trade for pitching and fill spots on their roster.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins might better utilize Lewis’ athleticism in the outfield. I know the front office said last year that he would stay in the infield for 2023. That made sense with the injury return in May with no spring training. The outfield could be thin without him to start 2025.
  11. jorgenswest
    I hope Miranda gets time at 3B in AAA. His RAA and DRS were both 0 in 2022. He did poorly last year with the bad shoulder out of spring training.
  12. jorgenswest
    Maybe some are expecting regression because his statcast xBA, xSLG and xwOBA based on quality of contact were all quite a bit lower than his actuals.
  13. jorgenswest
    I went back to 2017 and counted the number of starters with at least 8 starts and also 5 starts. If you are making 8 starts that is a quarter of the season and 5 starts you are needed for a month. Both seem relevant. 2017 7(7) 2018 5(6)- difficult to count with use of openers. Not helpful data. 2019 5(7) 2021 7(11) 2022 7(9) 2023 6(8) I think they need to plan for 7 starters that can expect at last a quarter season with the team and another 1 or 2 that will get a month’s worth of starts. I think they have 6 that they can count on for a quarter season. I also think they have enough near ready options in Festa, Canterino and Wood-Richardson to cover the 5-7 starts. It would help to have one more pitcher they can count on for significant starts. If one of these pitchers is willing to sign a minor league deal it would definitely be worth a shot. The in season trade route is the more likely path to a playoff caliber starter.
  14. jorgenswest
    I look forward to watching Margot play. He plays hard and uses his athleticism well. He will be a good addition. He wasn’t a good fit on the Dodgers and they really didn’t know him instead going with the known in Hernandez. I hope he makes them regret their decision.
  15. jorgenswest
    On gameday his max was 94.8. In his first walk to Arozarena he missed twice up and in after getting to two strikes. Probably a good place to pitch him. On his second walk his full count ball four was a strike in the game day zone. It was at the top of the zone on the inside third but it was called a ball by the umpire. The umpire called two strikes on Julien similarly up and in the previous half inning. I am not one to trust the robozone over umpires but his second walk could just as easily ended in a called strike three. Looking at all of his pitches he did a good job of commanding the edges of the strike zone. Another encouraging outing. I also appreciate that he has started both of his games and is facing guys like Soto and Arozarena.
  16. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that Mariners don’t make this deal unless the Twins are willing to take on the 4 million and DeSclafani? Perhaps they had to add to the prospect mix so the Twins would take on that burden. He wasn’t likely to make the roster and they save 4 million.
  17. jorgenswest
    Yes and one I need to stop asking. This is March. The Twins roster is pretty set. It is time to enjoy the game of baseball.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins have traded flexibility for depth. They have two bench players ranking tied for 4th(Vazquez) and 6th(Farmer) in their burden on the payroll. Vazquez was signed at a time when the payroll was $32 million more. He fits on that roster. Farmer was signed with the knowledge they would reduce payroll. That doesn’t make sense to me. Both are great fits on a team that can spend another 32 million on an everyday position player and possibly starter. Neither fit so well on this trimmed budget. I wonder if they tried to trade both to reduce payroll and couldn’t find anyone to take their full salary. If I needed to cut 30+ million from the budget I would have filled the bench and 5th starter spot with rookies. How close can Helman or Martin or Lee come to replacing the production of Farmer? How close is Varland to DeSclafani? Is it close enough to combine those dollars with the Margot and Santana dollars to add an impact player or at least an everyday player like Justin Turner or Polanco? Would this be a better roster with that everyday player and the other spots filled with some from AAA?
  19. jorgenswest
    Is that by game started? If your team has the lead and you are the late inning defensive sub wouldn’t that skew your win total? Does it change you thought if he was around 35-29 in his complete games? Farmer is a valuable major league player. I am not certain that his bench role is worthy of being the 6th highest paid player on this team. If this were a team with even a median payroll it would not be in question. I want him on that team. That team would have spent more on the Santana/Margot spots and invest in everyday players. That isn’t the case. As for shortstop, Castro has an average DRS and RAA over his last three years at SS. He certainly can fill in for a rest day or a few days off. If Correa goes on the IL they need to bring up Lee whether Farmer is on the roster or not. Farmer would be exposed in a regular SS job where he routinely faced right handed pitching as he was with the Reds. note: DeSclafani and Margot will be paid more than Farmer this year but not out of the Twins budget.
  20. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t this assume in the time when everyone is healthy? If they lose Lewis or Correa or Buxton for some time Castro can plug in any of those places. It would really have helped to retain or acquire one more everyday bat. I would have kept Polanco and not tendered Farmer. Farmer and the portion they are paying DeSclafani is virtually the same as Polanco’s salary. I would prefer Polanco and Varland and Alcala (for Topa). They also could have combined the Farmer/Santana/Margot dollars and signed an everyday bat like Turner or even Martinez.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am not trying to predict what the Twins will do. These are my thoughts on where I think they need to be better against right handed pitching and how I would make room for that need. Do you think it is a need? How would you fill that need?
  22. jorgenswest
    Of the position players I would like to see a bat emerge that can join the line up against right handed pitching. I would hope Larnach could win that job likely at the expense of Farmer. If they think Larnach can approach an 800 OPS+ against right handed pitching they need that bat. Even in his inconsistent start to his career his career OPS+ against right handed pitching is 741 and better than we should expect from Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez. Losing Farmer does hurt the line up against left handed pitching and depth behind Correa. I think the short side platoon loss can be minimized. Even in games started by a lefty that probably means two plate appearances. I don’t think the drop in the game takes a hit with Julien at the bottom of the order seeing that lefty at most twice and then likely right handed relievers. Castro is also an option to start some at 2B as well as being a defensive sub. Castro is also my short term option if Correa needs a day or two of rest. If he needs an IL stay then Lee gets his feet wet or they bring up Helman. I hope that Larnach has an opportunity to win a job. I also hope Lee has an opportunity to win a job.
  23. jorgenswest
    The roster construction with three short side platoon players makes it difficult to hope. Someone of Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez needs to start against right handed pitching. All are projected to be below average against right handed pitching in what is essentially a DH opening. The only one with options is Castro so I guess they could send him out for a good bat against right handed pitching in order to realize that hope. The only other way to realize that hope is to hope for one of the other short side platoon players to get injured.
  24. jorgenswest
    There is little data to pay attention to in spring. Traditional stats are worthless. Velocity has some meaning though.
  25. jorgenswest
    As long as they are willing to let go of DeSclafani, Santana, Margot, Farmer and the new reliever additions I am OK with adding this decline phase set. If they hit on a few it can be a productive winner unless they negate those wins by retaining those performing below league average. How patient will they be with poor performance? They released Blake Parker on July 29 after 105 games. Have they released any similar veteran addition earlier? A previous administration cut loose Jason Maquis after 41 games. I hope the line this year is closer to 41 than 105.
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