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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I am not interested in guesses in who they will bring up. We will find out soon enough. I am interested in what others would do. I think Festa has the most upside so I would give him the starts in hopes that he pitches well enough to stay in the rotation when Paddack is healthy. The risk of calling up Festa is that he isn’t ready and they devote a valuable 40 man roster spot to someone who isn’t able to help this year. Is it worth that very real risk?
  2. jorgenswest
    I would avoid slotting the new starter in on either side of Woods Richardson. That would give the greatest possibility of two consecutive short starts. I would slot them in between Ober and Lopez or Lopez and Ryan.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am a little confused. Why would anyone need to analyze? The WPA of each event is readily available. WPA 6% or greater from yesterday’s game. 1) T1: Margot doubled up on Lewis flyout to LF (-11.3%) 2) T2: Buxton’s home run (+11.1%) 3) T7: Castro’s single moving Santana to third (+9.2%) 4) T7: Buxton double scoring Santana with Castro moving to third (+8.3%) Doesn’t presenting in this way put the weight more on Margot? You can also see the impact of the sequence of plays in the 7th inning.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think they also disagree how each individual event is assigned to a single player on each team. If TD listed the three events that has the most impact on the game instead of player sums I am not sure they would disagree. I also think it tells a better story of the game.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would argue it doesn’t measure why a team won. It measures what it says. It measures the change in win probability for each individual event in the game. Isolating those events individually, the most key moments in the game can be highlighted helping to tell the story of the game. Assigning those moments as the single responsibility of one player can reasonably be questioned. A pitcher needs defense behind him. A batter is helped by runners on base in front of him. Summing those individual events for a game or season or career is probably not the best use for WPA and is as misleading as it is helpful. It should be used solely to tell the story of the game highlighting the most key moments.
  6. jorgenswest
    Last night’s game at Rickwood reminded of two impactful Twin minor leaguers that never got their chance in the majors. Chuck Weatherspoon and Ollie Brantley were cited by Rod Carew in his book as being a great help getting through the minors. Both started out in the negro leagues in the 50s. Brantley played for the Memphis Red Sox and Weatherspoon played for the Twin Cities Colored Giants. Both were in the Twins system for years playing and mentoring several future Twins including Rod Carew, Jim Kaat, Zoilo Versalles, Tony Oliva, Cesar Tovar, Bert Blyleven and Tom Hall. In 1961 Chuck Weatherspoon hit a record 7 grand slams for the Wilson Tobbs besting Jim Gentile’s 5 grand slams in the majors. He played in the minor leagues with the Senators/Twins from 1957 to 1969. He hit 230 home runs in his minor league career. Above is a photo from a 1961 Home Run Derby in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Roger Maris, Weatherspoon, Clyde King, Gentile, Jack McKeon and Harmon Killebrew. McKeon was manager for Wilson after recently finishing his minor league career as a catcher. Ollie Brantley played for the Twins organization from 1962-1969. In his best season he was 15-8 with a 1.63 ERA playing for Orlando. Rod Carew was on that team that went 77-57. After his seasons with the Memphis Red Sox he played 17 seasons in the minors. Tom Hall credits him with his development. Ollie Brantley tells his story. More on Ollie Brantley More on Chuck Weatherspoon
  7. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the detail. You listed many intriguing options. I hope they get a long enough second look at Wallner and Julien before any deadline decisions. I would do that before making any moves now. They also have Lee and Rodriguez as options. I wonder if there will be an opportunity to look at David Festa also. Stewart is throwing from the mound. Will we see him in July? It is never too early to deal for an everyday hitter that you put in the middle of the line up or a starter that fits in at the top of the rotation. I think it is too early to make a deal for the players that aren’t as impactful. They need to give an opportunity to their in house options first.
  8. jorgenswest
    They need a pitcher that has been consistently solid a healthy over the last three seasons. That leaves out McFarland and Moore. Moore’s velocity has ticked down and his peripherals are not very good this year. I would also take issues with Cleavinger being a force the last 4 years. How can you be a force when your innings totals are 18, 23, 12 and 29? Rogers is the only option of the 4 and the Twins will have to pay up. Otherwise I would go with Funderburk and hope that Stewart and Topa return.
  9. jorgenswest
    At the end I was trying to address your very valid concerns about the challenge system. If it is a 2D system it will be a disadvantage to pitchers with more movement whose balls either fall out of the strike zone prior to the selected 2D plane or enter the strike zone after the 2D plane. I don’t think it would be good for baseball to disadvantage pitchers with such good movement and pinpoint control that they can capture a just small part of the 3D zone.
  10. jorgenswest
    Willi Castro is amazing. Someone brought up Cesar Tovar earlier and what a great comp. Tovar was picked up from the Reds organization at 24. He played all over the field playing over 200 games at 5 different positions in his career and another 77 at SS. He bunted. He stole bases. He was a league leader in getting hit by pitch. He hustled. Tovar was a favorite of mine. Castro has become one also. Fantastic pick up originally signed by Cleveland and then traded to Detroit. Those two AL central teams lost out.
  11. jorgenswest
    Santana is valuable to this team. He hits lefties well. He is a very good with the glove. He shows hustle routinely. We saw yesterday his value pinch hitting. I appreciate watching him play baseball.
  12. jorgenswest
    How would it help? It sounded very similar to the quotes about Ryan last year. I suppose if they come down harder on Ryan in the press or in front of his teammates then maybe Kirilloff is up front earlier. They also may have burned some bridges with Ryan in doing so.
  13. jorgenswest
    I don’t care about the look. I hope he gets healthy and starts hitting again. I saw the article on MLB. I don’t think there will be any lasting tension between Kirilloff and the team.
  14. jorgenswest
    The ABS wasn’t perfect and not a 3D zone but I wonder if can come back in some form. There is an area on the edges of the zone where ABS isn’t reliable. Most of the calls that don’t match the zone on TV are pretty close. Leave those be. There are a few that are not close. It would be nice if the tech could inform the umpire to reverse those calls. That doesn’t need to take much time. There is no one to get even with. The emotion of the batter doesn’t play a factor.
  15. jorgenswest
    Is this a step backwards from the full ABS that some have hoped would bring consistency or a step closer to having a limited challenge system in the majors? Maybe both. It is probably an acknowledgement that the full ABS as implemented in AAA was not working as hoped. It would be good to fix the obviously bad calls assuming a team utilizes their challenges well.
  16. jorgenswest
    From ESPN
  17. jorgenswest
    They scored 46 runs in 6 games against the Louisville Bats. Their only effective starter Carson Spiers was promoted to the Reds earlier in June. The top three in games started have ERAs 9.85, 5.02 and 7.74. Two of those have nearly a walk an inning. They did face Graham Ashcroft last week. He has had a hard time getting major league hitters out this year but did calm the Saints bats after they had scored 34 runs the previous three games. The Saints have shown they can score runs against the Louisville Bats. I am not sure how many major league pitches they saw last week though.
  18. jorgenswest
    How would we know? Readiness shouldn’t be evaluated by a small sample so forced can’t be measured by looking at slash stats in AAA. I also wonder whether the AAA schedule a make readiness even less clear. The Saints play the same team for an entire week. A lot of players put up nice numbers against the Louisville pitchers last week with the Saints averaging nearly 8 runs a game. How close were those arms to a major league arm? I don’t see how we could measure whether a player is forcing there way up or simply feasting on minor league pitches in a small minor league strike zone. I do hope to see Julien and Wallner return soon.
  19. jorgenswest
    In 1968 Cesar Tovar started 10 games at the same positions that Castro has played. He also played 11 games in right field while starting 8 and was the starting pitcher in the game he played all 9 positions.
  20. jorgenswest
    In the outfield Gavin Sheets is a career -20 DRS and -11 OOA across 1506 innings and at first base in 410 innings it is -4 and -3. Larnach is +8, +1 in 1473 innings. Kirilloff -3, -8 in 758 (-10, -7, 939 innings at 1B). If you scale to the same number of innings I see little difference. Neither Kirilloff or Sheets has been a good fielder. Sheets is a year and a half older and better than Kirilloff in the too small sample so far this season. I don’t think there is anything in the data to suggest that he will be better the remainder of his career.
  21. jorgenswest
    Listed in Bowden’s 5 trades he would like to see before the deadline. “Twins acquire 1B Pete Alonso from Mets for 1B Alex Kirilloff, RHP David Festa and 2B/OF Luke Keaschall”
  22. jorgenswest
    How much more likely is Sheets to have a better career going forward than Larnach, Kirilloff or Wallner? Sheets: age 28, free agent 2028, .703 career OPS Kirilloff: 26, 2028, .721 (about 1.5 years younger than Sheets) Larnach: 27, 2028, .710 Wallner: 26, .813, 2029 or 2030?
  23. jorgenswest
    Kepler is not a better hitter against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Any rest should be against a left handed pitcher. If they happen to see to left handed pitchers in a series he probably should start in one if those games.
  24. jorgenswest
    Do you think swelling is going to make it more difficult in the next week? I don’t know. If he was not healthy enough to be in the line up today due to swelling I would wonder. We saw how he did at the start of the season after he was injured batting game 1. We also saw him try to play injured two years ago without success. Maybe it is minor. If he needs a second day off tomorrow due to pain or swelling I would IL him.
  25. jorgenswest
    If Kepler is out I would put him on IL. He doesn’t play well injured. Call up Wallner for his spot and call up Julien for the extra. Calling up Varland isn’t needed and won’t be utilized well. They have a day off Monday so the starters who already just had an extra day will be on track. If they do call up Varland they need to be willing to let him go deep in the game to avoid relying too much on the pen in one of the games.
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