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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Spring training stats are meaningless. Spring training is meaningful. The staff working with him everyday needs to be able to assess if he is ready. They need to be able to assess his ability to hit left handed pitching. The sample against a lefty is too small to make any conclusions. Look at the variation likely due to sample in 2022 (.937 OPS) and 2023 (.603). If he shows readiness they need to put him on the roster. They also need to be building in the flexibility for his arrival. I would suggest that they get Lewis some work in LF and CF. If not Lewis then the DH spot is open for Julien. Martin needs to be given the opportunity to win a job also.
  2. jorgenswest
    I would aim for 90-95 games started while arranging the rotation where he is able the DH against left handed pitchers another 20 or so games. He will need to hit like last year to earn those DH opportunities.
  3. jorgenswest
    Rosario is projected by ZIPS and Steamer to be the better hitter. His contract is 1.5 million. Over their careers both are much better against left handed pitching but Farmer is more extreme. I don’t think the Rays were ever going to take Farmer’s contract. There were too many options on the market that would sign for less. No missed opportunity here. I hope Brooks Lee and Austin Martin have the opportunity to win the job over Farmer.
  4. jorgenswest
    I always appreciate your posts @Riverbrian Your post makes me wonder if 3 platoons is ever feasible. This year in particular they will have a back up catcher and up the middle player in Vazquez and Castro. Neither is a platoon player but both are critical. That leaves two spots. You can’t platoon 3 positions with those two spots. More than ever they need JD Martinez who doesn’t need to platoon. His career OPS against left and right would rank first (dwarfing everyone else) and 4th. He is old and in decline also but has space for that decline. MLBTR listed the Twins among possible destinations today though a long shot.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would start Kepler and Julien and even Wallner a fair amount against the smaller proportion of left handed pitching they see and add a bat for right handlers. I think your long term tells us Santana is significantly better against lefties but I don’t buy that his numbers randomly pinball. He has declined as a hitter and at this point from 1B/DH is only useful against lefties. Larnach Is the better option for the strong side platoon right now but he gets knocked off the roster if they add a weak side platoon outfielder. Even in games that this added short side platoon hitter starts they are probably going to see that lefty twice. It is a better use of spot to go strong side and give our talented young left handed hitters some needed at bats against lefties. Why not give them until after the all star break to show if we really need this limited use bat? There are always these kinds of bats available at the deadline. I’d even be OK if the found a new home for Farmer forcing Julien into more of those at bats with Martin in the roster getting others. Should they really roster three short side platoon players in Santana, Farmer and the new bat?
  6. jorgenswest
    Do you think it is wise to use career stats for a 38 year old? Almost all of his career numbers are age 26/27. Is that relevant at 32?
  7. jorgenswest
    They had two off days in April. They played more games in April than any other month. They did have a stretch mid August where they could have skipped the fifth starter a few times but chose to give extra days of rest. Rest may have been helpful then.
  8. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t facing major league batters lead to many more high stress at bats and innings? Stress in the sense that the at bats would go longer. Finishing innings would take more pitches.
  9. jorgenswest
    Let’s suppose they add that short side platoon right handed bat. Who is the 9th hitter that will join the line up against right handed pitching? Why is this less important? None of their options (Santana, Farmer, Castro, Vazquez, new right handed bat) would be a counted on run producer against a right handed bat. Any additional right handed bat will help in about 25% of the starts. Even then they will likely have the platoon advantage for only 2 of their plate appearances that game as pitchers no longer go deep. The cost of this short sided platoon bat is a spot for a batter than can produce against right handed pitching. I think the real priority is an every day bat that fits in the top/middle of the line up. Polanco was that bat. They don’t have enough roster space to replace him with two platoon players and both need another bat. They can go get a bat that is run producer against both right and left handed pitching. Has JD Martinez signed anywhere yet? They may need his bat in the lineup more than they need the positional flexibility.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins don’t have space for a right handed outfielder. They chose their short side platoon bats in Santana and Farmer. No team has space for three. I would have chosen a right handed corner outfield bat over either Farmer or Santana but the Twins chose otherwise, They need another middle of the order bat against right handed starting pitching that they will see about 3/4 of the time. Some might argue Larnach is that bat. That is fine but then he needs a spot of the roster. There isn’t one if they add a third short side platoon bat to the team.
  11. jorgenswest
    I sure hope the Twins aren’t seeing the final bench spot as a position battle. Bench isn’t a position. Castro and Vazquez give them the first line of depth they need around the diamond. Any further depth can be in St. Paul. They do have critical line up decisions to be made. Nothing is more critical than their line up against a right handed starting pitcher. If there is a battle to be won it is here. Let’s assume that Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton and Kepler are healthy and in that line up. Who is the best option for the 9th bat? Polanco was traded opening that spot. The 2022 version of Gordon was pretty good against left handed pitching. He is gone. The four that seem to be roster certainties are Santana, Castro, Farmer and Vazquez. Any of these would be one of the poorer DH options against right handed pitching in baseball. Yes Santana was close to league average last year but look at the last three. It is folly to take last year’s numbers and project them to the next year. Castro? Over his career he has a .006 difference in platoon split with both in the 690s. Farmer has a career wRC+ of 76 against right handed pitching. The other choice is Vazquez. The Twins don’t have a battle for the last spot. With the trade of Polanco they have a battle for a spot in the starting lineup against right handed pitching. It is a critical battle. Michael A Taylor doesn’t help in that battle at all.
  12. jorgenswest
    I needed to look up true lie. It seems like it would have better to simply lie. Would they have sold more tickets without telling us that the budget would be cut? Lie about the budget and sell more tickets. Would they have not signed Farmer or Santana if they didn’t think they were trying to improve the team? Adding short side platoon players or old 5th starters don’t move the needle towards improvement. Really lie and say you couldn’t get any players to sign and go with the inexpensive players.
  13. jorgenswest
    This look at the last spot highlights the need for an everyday bat. The DH against right handed pitching which they will see 75% of the time should not be the last man on the bench. They already have two short side platoon players in Farmer and Santana and some suggest they need a third in a corner OF spot. Signing someone like Taylor for that spot almost guarantees that one of these bats will be in the game most days against right handed pitching. What are the alternatives? Castro? His projections with the bat are all below league average. Vazquez? He will play at least 40% and they can use Jeffers at DH some but that isn’t a viable plan for against right handed pitcher. Jeffers at DH against a lefty works.. They need an everyday bat. There aren’t enough bench spots to carry three short side platoon players.
  14. jorgenswest
    Derek Falvey knows him well. There are several insights into their relationship in the 2019 book “The MVP Machine” by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik. I am not sure there are many in his position who know Bauer better. I will trust his assessment of whether Bauer would be an asset to the Twins.
  15. jorgenswest
    It would be awesome to get Bellinger to take a Correa like 3 year deal with opt outs but that doesn’t seem even remotely possible. I think JD Martinez is the next best solution. I think Martinez is the best everyday bat they can get on a one year deal and I am not sure they will risk beyond one. I don’t think it would be wise to add another short side platoon bat. At best that player gets only two at bats against a lefty in a game and there aren’t enough left handed starters. They need a bat that can be counted on from both sides. Will Buxton need days off from center field? Most certainly. He can DH some of those. Should he be DH when hurting? I would trust Martinez at the plate over Buxton with ailing legs. Need more money? Find someone to take Farmer and his contract for little return as well as pushing the budget towards 140 with the new tv deal. Helman or Martin might be better bench fits as right handed bats with their additional positional flexibility and speed off the bench. Farmer was 28 before finally getting a real bench shot in the majors. I can see Helman following a similar career path. If Correa is on the IL I would prefer Lee over Farmer. Castro can take the rest days at SS. It isn’t a great lineup fit and will really limit Santana to at bats against lefties. However after Bellinger, Martinez is the only option that will have a daily impact on the lineup. There isn’t anyone else after Bellinger that brings that ability.
  16. jorgenswest
    The only possible purpose for Farmer on this roster is to platoon with Julien. We certainly aren’t going to hope he starts hitting right handed pitching at this point. We can hope for the luck of BABIP or HR/FB rate but the skill is in decline. Why not save the Farmer money and start Julien against left handed pitching? Bat him ninth. He will likely still get a couple of at bats against right handed relievers. They can still sit against the best left handed pitchers and play Martin or Castro. However they chose to pay Farmer. The only way that pays off is to start him at 2B against every lefty and squeeze out every other opportunity.
  17. jorgenswest
    Couldn’t make it through this podcast. No insight or really anything that was new in the first 50 minutes. Just rant. Justifiable rant certainly but I listen for insight and entertainment. There may have been something redeeming after the 50 but I didn’t get there.
  18. jorgenswest
    Maybe elite defense at SS (or catcher) should get a player higher in these lists. One elite skill goes a long ways in getting a roster spot. Plenty of time will be given to build the rest.
  19. jorgenswest
    It would be wise to make space if he shows in spring he is one of the top 6 in the pen. I would be rostering the names of those decline phase bullpen options in pencil. They need to give Canterino, Funderburk and Alcala all a chance to win a job in the bullpen. We won’t be able to see it in games and certainly not the spring stats but the trained eyes of the staff needs to evaluate the bullpen options and bring to the season the best arms.
  20. jorgenswest
    They should probably give it until June 1 if going by stats. Severino was at 100 wRC+ in AAA so sustained time around 130 with reduced strikeouts at that level should get him here. We saw him make that improvement in AA from 22 (108) to 23 (149). We also saw his strikeout rate drop in AA considerably in the 6 weeks prior to his AAA call up. In July it was under 25% when it was in the upper 30s to start. Really it was the same with Wallner last year. His strikeout rate was in the 30s into June. In the month prior to last call up it was below 25%. I think the most important in season minor league stats to watch and see if there is progress or change are the strike out and walk numbers. They stabilize pretty quickly. The improvements of both Wallner and Severino last year correlated with their move up a level. Now they need to make that same progress at their new level. I will be joining you in the call to see Miranda or Severino if Santana isn’t hitting after two months. In particular Santana needs to be crushing left handed pitching to really help this roster. League average against lefties won’t be helping this team enough.
  21. jorgenswest
    Any chance we are saying the same thing about Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Brock Stewart and Josh Staumont two years from now? They are in their 30s and none has a sustained track record of success or health. I guess you could add Caleb Thielbar to the list also. The best chance for sustained strength in the pen this year and two years down the road would be the emergence of Funderburk and Canterino as late game options.
  22. jorgenswest
    Isn’t suggesting that he can show his bat over sustained time in AAA giving him time?
  23. jorgenswest
    A lot of talk about Miller on BA’s Twins prospect podcast. His glove is so good that he will get a lot of time to develop the bat.
  24. jorgenswest
    I want three of them also but I doubt there are as many as twenty in the game and very few early in their career. The one they could have had is Burnes and might have him in a package with Lee. I have no idea how you get to three of this caliber pitcher. I don’t think Gray is one of them either. He worked out of many jams last year early in games. He doesn’t get that chance in an elimination game with the ability to rest the pen.
  25. jorgenswest
    Wasn’t there a day off the next day and it was an elimination game? I am guessing they would have stayed with Lopez longer. Ryan doesn’t reach the Lopez trust bar. Few would. Ober doesn’t either. They went with Stewart, Thielbar, Paddack, Jax and Duran. Most managers would be pretty confident with those 5 to carry them the rest of the game in order to stave off elimination. If the Twins were up 2-1 and Ryan pitches longer does that mean they trust him more?
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