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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    @DocBauer I looked at the Sands stretch of games earlier today. He pitched a long stretch n May 28 and the was back pitching in AAA June 28. In between the Twins starters routinely pitched into the 6th and 7th inning. Sometimes longer including Joe Ryan’s complete game shutout. The pen was rested and they could have done without a 13th pitcher through that stretch. Should they have had the foresight to go down to 12 pitchers in June? I can’t see how they would. The schedule wasn’t easy and there weren’t many off days. Did the miss opportunities to use Sands? There was one stretch from June 15 to June 18. Gray went 4 innings on June 15 but left with the lead. I think I would go with a better reliever they were rested. They ended up losing when Jorge Lopez blew up the ninth so I suppose they could have assessed that Sands would be more effective than Lopez. There was a bullpen game started by DeLeon two days later. I am sure he was in that plan but they pitched a shut out in this game winning 2-0 and stuck with their best relievers to finish it out. After the bullpen game they used the shuttle to bring up Balazovic and he was needed when Varland was pulled in the 5th. Balazovic held the, scoreless through the 8th inning in his best performance as a Twin. Did they really use this roster spot horribly? In order to use it horribly they needed their starters to routinely pitch deeper in games. That is a good thing. They needed their bullpen to step up and that happened in the two game stretch with DeLeon starting the bullpen game and Balazovic picking up the game in the 5th inning and shutting them down through the 8th. I wouldn’t have taken him out. The only other opportunities would be to take a starter out earlier and not let them pitch into the 6th or 7th. There were some starts where the starter was left in to work out of a jam and gave up some runs. There were more where they worked their way out of the jam. I hope that long starts create similar horrible roster use this year and that 8th spot in the pen is not needed often.
  2. jorgenswest
    I need the option that the logjam is not apparent to me yet. I also think they would be wise to prepare Lewis for the outfield. That is less due a perceived infield log jam but rather a need for more logs in the outfield.
  3. jorgenswest
    Trust is a weighty word here. I also recall that they chose and prepared Ober for that game by not putting him on the roster for the Toronto series. Should we interpret the roster omission as not trusting Ober also? Isn’t it more likely they trusted both? If both series go the full distance they lined it up so Lopez gets 3 starts, Gray and Ryan 2 starts and Ober 1 start.
  4. jorgenswest
    Farmer has a career wRC+ against right handed pitching of 76. It was better last year (92) but with a foundation of an unsustainable hr/fb rate. Take away 3 homers and he is still above his career rate going into last year but the wRC+ takes a big hit. I think we should plan and even hope for 80. His glove has declined. Is this a player that should be starting anywhere against right handed pitching? Injuries will occur and he will need to. If Correa goes down I would prefer they go with the upside of Lee.
  5. jorgenswest
    Adding to the 2B pipeline, I am looking forward to see Dameury Peña’s progress. Can he make it to low A at 18? He will,likely be in complex ball. Arraez had splits of 348/433/400 in the DsL at 17 and moved to the GCL the next year. Peña dwarfed those numbers with splits of 382/453/496. Arraez didn’t make prospects lists. He just hit everywhere he played. Will it be the same for Peña?
  6. jorgenswest
    The Vazquez decision was made when the budget wasn’t as tight and Jeffers was shaky. I can give them a pass on that. I also think the voice of that veteran catcher in those meeting with the pitchers and pitching staff was valuable to not only Jeffers but the pitchers and the coaches. It is hard to accept the other three and I hope they are willing cut their losses with any/all of the three early in the season. Need a right handed short side platoon bat at 2B? They have Martin, Helman, Prato, Goodrum and even Lee all inexpensive. Why not give Julien a few more starts against a lefty and bat him 9th? The way pitchers are used he may only need see that lefty once and certainly not three times. Need a short side platoon bat at 1B? Why not try Miranda first followed by Severino? Give Kirilloff some starts against a lefty at the bottom of the order at times. I would have combined those dollars to get an everyday bat or an upgrade to Varland in the rotation. Short side platoon addendum. Is it wise to have multiple bats whose value is in a short side platoon? The Earl Weaver platoon days of 15 rostered position players and starters pitching 7 or more innings are long gone. You can’t carry a Benny Ayala on your roster most of the season and have him face a right handed pitcher in just 9 plate appearances. Everyone on the roster needs to able to hit right handed pitching just as every bullpen arm is going to see high leverage.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think it is useful to plan to have an arm ready to go up to 50 pitches for every game is prudent. Last year Sands sat in that role for a stretch where the starters were so efficient he wasn’t used. If the 13th pitcher isn’t used often because the starters are pitching 5 or more innings routinely this is a good thing. I would still plan to have that last guy with options in the pen to take over for an early blow out or injury and save the majority for the next day. After the game shuttle them down to AAA and bring up a fresh arm. This is the modern day long reliever. They need to have confidence in the other 7 bullpen arms in high leverage situations.
  8. jorgenswest
    Before I jump in I need to be clear on the terms here. I think an opener is a bullpen arm that is used for one or two innings to start the game followed by a pitcher who might throw 5. To me this is using the pitchers in a different order but not changing the role of the pitcher. The opener would be available the next day or day after for any bullpen role. I think piggybacking starters is taking two starting pitchers and having them throw 3-5 innings depending on their performance. Neither pitcher would be available to the bullpen for the few days after the game and would probably need to be rested for their next piggyback start making them unavailable in the bullpen for the few days prior. Which of these are we talking about in relation to the Rays?
  9. jorgenswest
    The high run scoring environment in AA and particularly AAA makes it really hard to evaluate hitters. Traditional stats that normally should excite us were pretty ordinary. The speed and glove are there. I don’t think he has shown that his bat will work in the majors and that is probably why he wasn’t left available for the rule 5. Last year was only season in his last three where he had a wRC+ over 100 for the season. His 86 wRC+ in 2022 at AA was not close to projecting as a useful major league hitter. He followed it up with a wRC+ of 123 over a long stretch repeating AA last year. He then struggled in AAA with a below league average bat (wRC+ of 93) . He needs sustained success in AAA to show he has a passable bat in the majors.
  10. jorgenswest
    If Canterino shows that he can be a late inning reliever he needs to be in the pen at the expense of one of the older relievers. He needs to claim one of the top 6 spots though. The back of the pen will get inconsistent work and he will need that consistent work.
  11. jorgenswest
    I wonder if there will be a wave of signings for the lower tier free agents as teams open up roster spots with the 60 day IL moves.
  12. jorgenswest
    Too add… Rick Wise at 34 had an ERA 8% above league average with 27 starts. That would be probably be OK. He was also acquired in the off-season before that 34 year old season. He was coming off two healthy seasons with more than 30 starts so it looked like he would be more reliable. The Padres signed Wise to a 5 year deal through age 38. By age 36 he was out of baseball.
  13. jorgenswest
    Thanks. It leaves me wondering about… Do the Twins need to have short leashes on one season outliers like Topa and Stewart? Topa has options so that is easier. Are the WARPs of Funderburk and Canterino lower due to less projected playing time? They are both at an age where if they show they are among the Twins top 6 relievers they need to be on the roster over the stock pile of relievers in their 30s the Twins have recently acquired.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think the 60 day starts on opening day or maybe the first game of the season where opening days vary by team.
  15. jorgenswest
    I respect the Giants front office and wonder if there is enough left for him to approach a league average starter. There is no guarantee he comes back all the way from his injuries combined with the natural decline from his last good season at age 31 to age 34. The Braves took on some bad contracts this winter and released or outrighted or traded with cash the players. I think that includes Marco González, David Fletcher, Evan White, Max Stassi and Matt Carpenter. The Mariners found a new home for DeSclafani. The Twins have kept him. He really needs to show something in the spring. He can’t be the 5th starter if Varland is ahead of him. If he gets that spot he needs to perform and continue to perform. The Twins won’t find a taker during the season to flip a mediocre starter. They will need to release him at that point,
  16. jorgenswest
    If you missed it a few weeks ago Baseball America had their podcast about the Twins prospects. I just gave it a second listen. It left me so hopeful not only about Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee but so many of the players that will provide position player depth. The decline phase position players on the roster better perform or be moved out of the way. They also have a great argument about why they ranked Canterino 6th. If he performs in spring and shows as a late inning reliever they better make room for him in place of one of those older relievers they have stockpiled recently.
  17. jorgenswest
    Priorities in order for last spot in pen. Most important is availability of an option to shuttle to AAA when the bullpen is taxed. In this case they really would have two or three last spot relievers with one that happens to be on the opening day roster. The pitcher needs to already be on the 40 man roster. Don’t use a 40 man move for a reliever that will be shuttled a back to AAA. Keep them in AAA as depth for when injury hits. The pitcher should be able to give them 40 pitches in an appearance allowing multiple innings. There are several relievers with some experience as starters in the minors that can fill that last spot shuttle role. The name of the first player to have that spot isn’t that worthy of debate. This debate really needs to be about which of the out of options relievers will earn an important role in the pen. I think that needs to be at least top 11.
  18. jorgenswest
    Agree. I should have said this as clearly.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Reds preferred Bubba over myriads of others they could have put on the roster including Blake Snell and the recently claimed Jordan Groshans. They may simply have thought Bubba has a better chance of making it through or needed to try to get some organizational depth in the OF. The Reds have already DfA’d Thompson once this off-season. Getting DFA’d had to sting. Going unclaimed had to sting. That names of the players like Thompson and Groshans that were among those claimed while he was on waivers wouldn’t add to it. Would that mean he would somehow have less sting when they are DFA’d again before the season starts? This brings me to a more serious note. It can’t be helpful to a player’s career or family to be moved through so many waiver cycles. I have suggested the remedy is to limit the DFA’s. That probably wouldn’t go so I am going to put something in the waiver player’s pocketbook. As it stands I think the Twins paid a $50000 waiver fee to the Yankees and were paid back the $5000 by the Reds. Is that correct? I am not sure if the off-season or Thompson’s options status matters here. I assume there is money involved. Let’s give it to the player. Too much. Let’s give them at least half. Maybe the cycle of claiming a player with plan to DFA would lessen. That would benefit the player by landing him on a team that will really give him an opportunity.
  20. jorgenswest
    Thompson is at least temporarily with the Reds. This is his second go around with the Reds. In the last 6 months he has moved from the Rangers to the Royals to the Reds to the Yankees to the Twins and back to the Reds,
  21. jorgenswest
    You can probably add Martin. I am not sure there are any takers at Farmer’s contract. He fits better in the Twins than any other team where he complements Julien’s left handed bat and well below average glove. If the plan was to trade him hoping to get something along the lines of an Urshela return it was a mistake that can’t be made with the reduced budget. I would have preferred they had non-tendered him and combined that money with Polanco dollars to get an everyday bat.
  22. jorgenswest
    I do fear that the decision to bring in decline phase veterans like Farmer, Santana and possibly a right handed bat will result in the Twins will be too slow to part with them if they have dropped in production. I do trust the rankings. MLB.com has him ranked 18th overall. It is sobering though to go back 5 to 10 years and see that a number of players in that range failed to become significant major leaguers.
  23. jorgenswest
    Absolutely agree. I also believe what they see with their eyes in spring training should be an important factor in decision. They need to rely on their trained eyes as they watch players in the spring and make wise decisions.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would also. They shouldn’t have any untouchable prospects.
  25. jorgenswest
    Unsure what you mean by sold. Moncada was #2 ranked prospect by MLB.com at the time of the trade. They had Kopech ranked number 16. Basabe wasn’t globally ranked but was number8 in the Red Sox system and Diaz was 28th. The Twins couldn’t match that pairing with Jenkins and Lee. The Twins have nowhere near the prospect capital that The Red Sox have at the time. They also don’t need it, We can dismiss BTV but they have Sale’s trade value in 2016 about twice that of Luzardo. If that is the Marlin’s asking price they are wasting their time taking calls. No one is going to offer the historic prospect package the Red Sox sent for Sale.
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