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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I wonder also but Seattle has money constraints also. It would be a challenge for them to take both contracts without the Twins including money or taking bad contracts. The money probably wouldn’t be there to go get that bat. It will be frustrating as these wonders turn into mythical facts that the Twins could have had the dollars and Woo or Miller.
  2. jorgenswest
    You absolutely can get to a 2.61 ERA in 75 innings with smoke and mirrors. I chose the other stats for their low stabilization rates. ERA is pretty useless for assessing relievers because it takes so many innings for it to stabilize. A starter doesn’t throw enough innings in a single season. People see ERAs of relievers vary significantly from year to year and come to the conclusion that relievers are volatile in their performance. It is really random variation due to sample. Strikeout rates, walk rates and groundball rates stay pretty consistent because they don’t need a large sample to stabilize.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t want a platoon bat either.
  4. jorgenswest
    Sign JD Martinez. I think he will outhit Polanco this year and the lineup will be better than it was before the trade. Nelson Cruz was a great addition to the line up and the clubhouse. Martinez has a similar work ethic. It wasn’t a problem that our DH hit so well that players cycled to the bench for rest instead of cycling through DH.
  5. jorgenswest
    There was an opportunity.
  6. jorgenswest
    They need to put it on the front burner.
  7. jorgenswest
    Flora has been a useful reliever. When with the Dodgers he made their World Series roster in two seasons and pitched in 5 of those games. We didn't see the best of Floro and our defense behind him let him down a few times. A groundball pitcher counts on the defense. His FIP and xFIP with the Twins was in the 3s. His career ERA is 3.42 If Topa gives the Twins innings and an ERA below 4 he will be a useful middle inning reliever. This is something they could have found in free agency but save a million or two compared to what they might have spent on the free agent market.
  8. jorgenswest
    Cruz wasn’t projected to be Cruz either. His work caring for his body defied projection. Martinez and his work ethic has been a theme with every one of his teams. Cruz made an all star just once before age 30 and 6 after age 30. Martinez has one before and five after so far. I wonder if Martinez is also defying projection. He certainly did last year with his .893 OPS.
  9. jorgenswest
    JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse.
  10. jorgenswest
    Isn’t it a question of heath? Doesn’t he have an OPS of .852 in AAA over 649 PAs? I hope the Twins are a little more open minded in spring training and particularly the work outside of the games. I expect that he will need some time in AAA but I would hope he has a chance to excel and win a major league job this spring.
  11. jorgenswest
    I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season. Justin Topa 19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB% Dylan Floro 23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG% Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million. They are both entering their age 33 seasons.
  12. jorgenswest
    DeSclafini and Bundy are very similar. We are hoping on DeSclafini’s good season two years ago. Did we forget that Bundy received Cy Young votes two years prior to joining the Twins? DeSclafini’s ERA last year was 4.88 after a good start. Bundy’s ERA with the Twins was 4.89 after a good start. They have similar strike out rates and walk rates. Is there a risk that the Twins will keep giving DeSclafini starts because they did not find a better alternative? Would this deal had been better if DeSclafini were not included?
  13. jorgenswest
    Agree. My point in the trade discussions was Seattle was not a good trade partner. They were looking to improve their rotation and not use it to trade for Polanco. They did need a 2B so they might be a good three team trade opportunity and maybe this will be a version of a three team trade. Move Polanco and his salary for a top 100 prospect. Trade off from top 100 prospects to get a starting pitcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    They say they are. They can show they are by using this money to pay for Burnes or Cease or Bieber while sending out the package of prospects.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think there is still a hole in the starting rotation. Polanco was the best asset to fill that hole and now the dollars and prospects are the best asset. If they end up with a short side platoon right handed bat and DeSclafini to fill the hole they are much worse off. They need to use the dollars to get starting pitching. Burnes has a salary they can more easily fit now. Burnes too costly in prospects? Go get Bieber. Want two years? Spend more in prospects and go get Cease? Fill that hole in the rotation.
  16. jorgenswest
    Is there still a hole in the starting rotation?
  17. jorgenswest
    Why would the Mariners trade use their best assets to trade for a package when they are contending? Nightingale reported that they were looking to improve their rotation with Cease. It just doesn’t make sense that they would go the other direction and trade from their starting 5. Contending teams need to come away with the best player in the deal not a package of lesser players, Seattle plans to contend.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe for a minute that Seattle was trading starting pitching unless it was going to be one of the young arms for Dylan Cease. Seattle is setting their sights on contending. They don’t need to trade a good asset for a package of lesser assets that might include Polanco. Contending teams need to walk away with the best player in the deal. We might have gotten their interest in a swap of Lewis for Gilbert. Maybe they would part with Woo or Miller for Julien but it seems they are trying to use those young pitchers to improve their staff. If for some reason the Twins wanted DeSclafini the offer should have been Farmer or walk away.
  19. jorgenswest
    The 2024 Twins are not as good tonight as they were this morning.
  20. jorgenswest
    Posted this about SWR before I came to the minor league forum. It fits best here. Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches. I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?
  21. jorgenswest
    Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches. I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?
  22. jorgenswest
    Julien’s control has more value than one year of Burnes. There isn’t any question on that. Is value in whole the only consideration? Burnes’ one year can be more impactful. One year of Morris had great impact.
  23. jorgenswest
    Eno Sarris has Burnes ranked as the number 2 starting pitcher. That would be a huge upgrade. They wouldn’t have the prospect capital to get a pitcher of this caliber with multiple years of control. Those extra years are very expensive. Luzardo (ranked 34) has much more surplus value over 3 years and therefore more costly in trade but he would not be near the impact on the 2024 team. Take the one year. Trade Julien. Go for it.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is it important to have one or two slots that get shuttled through during the year to help with bullpen usage an injury? In that case might players of less importance be in those slots?
  25. jorgenswest
    Right now the Brewers have Burnes for this year and a good comp pick. If a team comes in a gets this deal done it is going to take a player like Julien. We can wait until midseason to try to do the deal. They might be more open to a package of a few prospects at that point if they aren’t contending. The Twins also won’t get a comp pick when Burnes leaves in free agency.
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