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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I have been wondering about this lately. How true is it? How much trickier? If trades occur randomly in division trades would occur 4/29 or 13.8% of the time. How much less than 4/29 is it? The only significant in division trade I recall this winter is the Red Sox sending Vergugo to the Yankees. They do occur.
  2. jorgenswest
    Trade for 1 year of Burnes. Needs to be done before the season in order to make a qualifying offer and get a comp pick. It might take Julien for one year of Burnes and a comp pick.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Athletic reported the Twins were listed among teams impacted by age fraud with internationals signings from the Dominican Republic. No details about the players were included. Nor were there comments from the teams.
  4. jorgenswest
    Agree that they would try to trade both. Gordon’s contract is east to trade. Is Farmer’s?
  5. jorgenswest
    There is space for both. I prefer both to Farmer. None are a certainty that they will perform as we hope. Gordon’s salary is one the Twins have been comfortable to DFA if he can’t approach his 2022 season. Castro has an option left if last year was an outlier. Will they DFA Farmer’s contract if he declines? Last year looked like he had improved but it is mostly the illusion of going from a full time player t a platoon role where his weakness against right handed pitching was a smaller ratio of the overall data. If it isn’t a salary they will DFA I do hope they trade him before the season.
  6. jorgenswest
    Gordon is projected to be the better hitter of the utility options by ZIPs. He also has a career RAA of 0 at 2B and SS. After his first year in CF he put up an RAA of 0. He may not return from injury but has the highest upside bat of all of the CF bench options.
  7. jorgenswest
    No scouting for me. If games played at a position isn’t data nor are any hits or outs recorded. I haven’t seen any of it so it is all merely data. The last time I saw any significant play of Twins minor leagues was when Visalia was a Twin affiliate. Those early 1980s Oaks teams were a lot of fun.
  8. jorgenswest
    Agree. Since Keaschall didn’t start out at SS it seems less likely that he will stick at 2B. He has only played a partial season though so it will be interesting to see how they use him this year. If he starts getting more time in a corner I will think that is where he will land.
  9. jorgenswest
    The only data that is useful is seeing how a player is used by the team in the minors. Most second basemen in the majors played shortstop in the minors. When I see Spencer Steer start games occasionally at SS (48 in minors) I think they might be able to stick at 2B. It looks now like Steer is a corner player that will play mostly 1B/LF. I would have more confidence in someone likely Dozier who played a lot of SS in the minors. Pedroia began his minor league career as a SS. Altuve didn’t play SS in the minors but he also didn’t move around. Utility players like Castro almost always start at SS in the minors. Zobrist was a SS. Players that move around indicate to me that the team is trying to find a fit for them. I don’t think they are trying to develop a utility player. Julien bounced around in college and the minors. The Twins played Keaschall mostly at 2B. Their use of him the next year or two will be telling. Maybe he will be like Altuve and play almost exclusively at 2B. Then I would be confident he can stick there. If he starts bouncing around I will think they are looking for a spot for him to settle. I would not think utility player is a possibility without SS. Keaschall and Schobel may be on a similar path as Steer. They will need to get to the majors with their bats and those bats will have to be adequate enough to play a corner position.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Astros have two centerfielders and both hit right handed. Jake Meyers is entering his age 28 season and hasn’t hit yet. Nick Gordon has shown one good season and could be a better platoon fit with their outfield. Meyers has options left. Does this help either team?
  11. jorgenswest
    To add… ZIPs projects Gordon to have an OPS+ of 100. He had a 0 RAA in centerfield in 2022-2023 and a career 0 RAA at 2B and SS. I did cherry pick the CF and ignored his 2021 RAA when he was thrown out in CF without having played there previously. You would want a better bat from your starting LF and he would be exposed playing every day and facing left handed pitching but so many things near an average level has real value.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they would move both or meant to imply it. My thought was that San Diego has so many guys that could be a headliner for this deal compared to the Twins. If San Diego is involved they need to be ready to part with Lewis. I would look elsewhere for pitching in that case. Three years of control is too expensive.
  13. jorgenswest
    They want an upgrade from the or current shortstop Jon Berti. Berti does everything better than Farmer at a lower salary. He is a better hitter matching his bat against lefties and much better against right handed pitching. He had positive in every defensive metric at shortstop. He steals bases. They are both in decline and I would want to look for a Berti replacement also buy why would they turn to Farmer? They already have a Farmer that hits right handed pitching better and steals bases. The Twins can’t compete with the Padres. They have a shortstop prospect better than Lee in Jackson Merrill. They have surplus shortstops at the major league level that have far more value than anyone the Twins have in Kim and Tatis Jr. They also have the best catching prospect in baseball in Ethan Salas and Campusano who is a comp to Jeffers. If the Padres are really interested the only Twin that can win the deal is Lewis.
  14. jorgenswest
    Why not have them both providing depth in AAA?
  15. jorgenswest
    Didn’t he have a hamstring injury from August through the end of the season? I know they pinch hit Farmer for him but did they pinch run for him prior to that injury.
  16. jorgenswest
    He has played much more left field than center field in the majors. Is that due to his arm or circumstance or maybe both? It makes me wonder about his arm. His barrel rate of 1.9% and hard hit rate of 21.9% are incredibly low. Unlike slash stats which can take multiple seasons, statcast hard hit rate stabilize pretty quickly. It is possible to be successful in this range. Steven Kwan is an example and maybe the only real example. Kwan does it with a strike out rate at 10% and an in zone contact rate of 95%. Thompson is at 29.9% and 75%. That isn’t going to work with his hard hit rate and that data is pretty stable at his 241 PA sample. I am curious if his hard hit rate or barrel rate was significantly different in the minors.
  17. jorgenswest
    Psychologically to me watching the game. Yes. Psychologically to the batter or the next batter or the bench. I am not so sure. There is too much failure for all players in baseball for a player to get to the majors without being pretty resilient.
  18. jorgenswest
    That leaves 159 other games on the schedule. I would still try to improve the roster for those games.
  19. jorgenswest
    Would the Twins be willing to cut Bell loose and pay his salary with further decline? The Braves took on contracts and already dropped them. I am not sure the Twins would do that with Bell’s contract and he doesn’t have space for further decline. Kirilloff already had the better bat last year and he should get better, If the Twins can’t cut that contract loose I would say no. The Twins would be taking on about 22 million in salary in this deal while being relieved of Polanco’s salary. Would it be more prudent to spend that 22 million in free agency while trading Polanco for prospects and retaining Lee and Camargo?
  20. jorgenswest
    Manoah and Kikuchi are also in the Polanco range. There really are many. The problem with Lynch is not his surplus value but his expected value for 2024. A lot of his surplus value is the result of four years of control spreading out that 20.1 of value. Kikuchi has almost the same AFV but it is all in 2024. Polanco would be an overpay for Bieber by surplus value but Bieber would provide a lot of value for 2024. Are the Twins seeking 2024 expected value for their staff or longer term potential value in return for salary relief? Lynch would provide depth for 2024 and some hope but a trade for Lynch is more along the lines of a trade for a prospect and salary relief. I don’t think that I so the Twins stated intention in a trade for a major leaguer.
  21. jorgenswest
    I guess that makes it more interesting. I don’t want to sign a Gallo or Morrison and then watch them remain on the roster most of the season. Is it also concerning? How motivated is Hicks? Why hasn’t anyone else signed him?
  22. jorgenswest
    Injuries will occur and they need real depth. Martin, Lee, Camargo, Miranda and Larnach can provide that depth across the diamond in AAA. It is a strength that will give them an edge and gave them an edge last year. My concern about Hicks is that if they pay him 5-6 million it might be enough for them to keep him even if his decline is evident. Farmer is similar risk of declining play but retained on roster. I would prefer Gordon as depth with Martin in AAA because I don’t think the Twins will hold onto Gordon if he doesn’t approach 2022. They can DFA him and give Martin a shot without worry of his contract. Worst case is a veteran free agent or Farmer stay healthy and on the roster all season in spite of declining lackluster play while Lee and Martin show the readiness that Wallner and Julien showed in St. Paul. Edit: Hicks isn’t a contract worry (thanks DJL44).
  23. jorgenswest
    I am all for putting Martin a bench role if he has maxed out his AAA growth. I am hoping there is more to develop at AAA as a hitter. His 106 wRC+ at AAA was underwhelming and just a tick below Celestino’s performance. I would really like to see a long stretch of greater than 130 and bring him up mid year.
  24. jorgenswest
    It is possible in the small sample of a partial season that a shift from .220 to .300 in batting average is luck often seen by a huge swing in BABiP. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats and neither half was near that sample. I do think the shift restrictions helped Kepler and perhaps allowed him to be more comfortable seeking harder contact rather trying to hit the ball to the opposite field. He did hit the ball harder in the second half but I am not sure we should expect a .351 BABiP of the second half or the .210 of the first half. Even in his 2019 season when his hard hit rate was similar to the second half but his BABiP was only .244. He also started off last year in April with a hard hit rate that matched the second half but didn’t get the same reward in stats as he did the second half of the season.
  25. jorgenswest
    Agree. I think Mariner fans would feel the same way. They would also expect the Twins to kick in more due to the premium on starting pitching.
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