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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    One challenge could be the number of pitches he throws per inning approaches 16.5. Joe Ryan has a similar ratio. Perhaps he would pitch to more contact as a starter to lower the number. Would bhe be as effective pitching to more contact? He might also find himself in longer at bats the second time he faces a batter. As a starter would he consistently get through 6 in a reasonable pitch count?
  2. jorgenswest
    It is encouraging that the Twins are producing enough talent in the minors to both trade for pitching and fill spots on their roster.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins might better utilize Lewis’ athleticism in the outfield. I know the front office said last year that he would stay in the infield for 2023. That made sense with the injury return in May with no spring training. The outfield could be thin without him to start 2025.
  4. jorgenswest
    I hope Miranda gets time at 3B in AAA. His RAA and DRS were both 0 in 2022. He did poorly last year with the bad shoulder out of spring training.
  5. jorgenswest
    Maybe some are expecting regression because his statcast xBA, xSLG and xwOBA based on quality of contact were all quite a bit lower than his actuals.
  6. jorgenswest
    I went back to 2017 and counted the number of starters with at least 8 starts and also 5 starts. If you are making 8 starts that is a quarter of the season and 5 starts you are needed for a month. Both seem relevant. 2017 7(7) 2018 5(6)- difficult to count with use of openers. Not helpful data. 2019 5(7) 2021 7(11) 2022 7(9) 2023 6(8) I think they need to plan for 7 starters that can expect at last a quarter season with the team and another 1 or 2 that will get a month’s worth of starts. I think they have 6 that they can count on for a quarter season. I also think they have enough near ready options in Festa, Canterino and Wood-Richardson to cover the 5-7 starts. It would help to have one more pitcher they can count on for significant starts. If one of these pitchers is willing to sign a minor league deal it would definitely be worth a shot. The in season trade route is the more likely path to a playoff caliber starter.
  7. jorgenswest
    I look forward to watching Margot play. He plays hard and uses his athleticism well. He will be a good addition. He wasn’t a good fit on the Dodgers and they really didn’t know him instead going with the known in Hernandez. I hope he makes them regret their decision.
  8. jorgenswest
    On gameday his max was 94.8. In his first walk to Arozarena he missed twice up and in after getting to two strikes. Probably a good place to pitch him. On his second walk his full count ball four was a strike in the game day zone. It was at the top of the zone on the inside third but it was called a ball by the umpire. The umpire called two strikes on Julien similarly up and in the previous half inning. I am not one to trust the robozone over umpires but his second walk could just as easily ended in a called strike three. Looking at all of his pitches he did a good job of commanding the edges of the strike zone. Another encouraging outing. I also appreciate that he has started both of his games and is facing guys like Soto and Arozarena.
  9. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that Mariners don’t make this deal unless the Twins are willing to take on the 4 million and DeSclafani? Perhaps they had to add to the prospect mix so the Twins would take on that burden. He wasn’t likely to make the roster and they save 4 million.
  10. jorgenswest
    Yes and one I need to stop asking. This is March. The Twins roster is pretty set. It is time to enjoy the game of baseball.
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins have traded flexibility for depth. They have two bench players ranking tied for 4th(Vazquez) and 6th(Farmer) in their burden on the payroll. Vazquez was signed at a time when the payroll was $32 million more. He fits on that roster. Farmer was signed with the knowledge they would reduce payroll. That doesn’t make sense to me. Both are great fits on a team that can spend another 32 million on an everyday position player and possibly starter. Neither fit so well on this trimmed budget. I wonder if they tried to trade both to reduce payroll and couldn’t find anyone to take their full salary. If I needed to cut 30+ million from the budget I would have filled the bench and 5th starter spot with rookies. How close can Helman or Martin or Lee come to replacing the production of Farmer? How close is Varland to DeSclafani? Is it close enough to combine those dollars with the Margot and Santana dollars to add an impact player or at least an everyday player like Justin Turner or Polanco? Would this be a better roster with that everyday player and the other spots filled with some from AAA?
  12. jorgenswest
    Is that by game started? If your team has the lead and you are the late inning defensive sub wouldn’t that skew your win total? Does it change you thought if he was around 35-29 in his complete games? Farmer is a valuable major league player. I am not certain that his bench role is worthy of being the 6th highest paid player on this team. If this were a team with even a median payroll it would not be in question. I want him on that team. That team would have spent more on the Santana/Margot spots and invest in everyday players. That isn’t the case. As for shortstop, Castro has an average DRS and RAA over his last three years at SS. He certainly can fill in for a rest day or a few days off. If Correa goes on the IL they need to bring up Lee whether Farmer is on the roster or not. Farmer would be exposed in a regular SS job where he routinely faced right handed pitching as he was with the Reds. note: DeSclafani and Margot will be paid more than Farmer this year but not out of the Twins budget.
  13. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t this assume in the time when everyone is healthy? If they lose Lewis or Correa or Buxton for some time Castro can plug in any of those places. It would really have helped to retain or acquire one more everyday bat. I would have kept Polanco and not tendered Farmer. Farmer and the portion they are paying DeSclafani is virtually the same as Polanco’s salary. I would prefer Polanco and Varland and Alcala (for Topa). They also could have combined the Farmer/Santana/Margot dollars and signed an everyday bat like Turner or even Martinez.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am not trying to predict what the Twins will do. These are my thoughts on where I think they need to be better against right handed pitching and how I would make room for that need. Do you think it is a need? How would you fill that need?
  15. jorgenswest
    Of the position players I would like to see a bat emerge that can join the line up against right handed pitching. I would hope Larnach could win that job likely at the expense of Farmer. If they think Larnach can approach an 800 OPS+ against right handed pitching they need that bat. Even in his inconsistent start to his career his career OPS+ against right handed pitching is 741 and better than we should expect from Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez. Losing Farmer does hurt the line up against left handed pitching and depth behind Correa. I think the short side platoon loss can be minimized. Even in games started by a lefty that probably means two plate appearances. I don’t think the drop in the game takes a hit with Julien at the bottom of the order seeing that lefty at most twice and then likely right handed relievers. Castro is also an option to start some at 2B as well as being a defensive sub. Castro is also my short term option if Correa needs a day or two of rest. If he needs an IL stay then Lee gets his feet wet or they bring up Helman. I hope that Larnach has an opportunity to win a job. I also hope Lee has an opportunity to win a job.
  16. jorgenswest
    The roster construction with three short side platoon players makes it difficult to hope. Someone of Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez needs to start against right handed pitching. All are projected to be below average against right handed pitching in what is essentially a DH opening. The only one with options is Castro so I guess they could send him out for a good bat against right handed pitching in order to realize that hope. The only other way to realize that hope is to hope for one of the other short side platoon players to get injured.
  17. jorgenswest
    There is little data to pay attention to in spring. Traditional stats are worthless. Velocity has some meaning though.
  18. jorgenswest
    As long as they are willing to let go of DeSclafani, Santana, Margot, Farmer and the new reliever additions I am OK with adding this decline phase set. If they hit on a few it can be a productive winner unless they negate those wins by retaining those performing below league average. How patient will they be with poor performance? They released Blake Parker on July 29 after 105 games. Have they released any similar veteran addition earlier? A previous administration cut loose Jason Maquis after 41 games. I hope the line this year is closer to 41 than 105.
  19. jorgenswest
    They may not be done yet. They may try to find someone to take Farmer but his contract may be prohibitive.
  20. jorgenswest
    One of these 5 bats needs to be the DH against right handed pitching in Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez. Not one of them project to be league average against right handed pitching. No worries though because we are set against lefties now.
  21. jorgenswest
    Would Margot have made the Dodger roster? Kike Hernandez gives them more flexibility as the 4th OF on the short side of the platoon. Would DeSclafani have made the Mariners starting rotation? No. Both the Dodgers and Mariners took on a portion of these bad contracts in order to make a deal work this winter. I don’t think either team wanted either player and they needed to find a team willing to take some of the contract burden.
  22. jorgenswest
    Encouraging inning from Woods-Richardson against the top of the Yankee line up. It was encouraging because he starts spring with a velocity that is up from last year ranging 92.2 to 94.5. He also had good differential between fastball and change up. He threw strikes. Nice work against LeMahieu, Soto and Torres. His strength is shown by the stuff+ but he needs to pair that with velocity better than the 89-90 he showed too often in games last year and he needs to be in the strike zone.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am curious. Is the $100 in market option going to sell well? I have mlb tv and not in twins market. My TV comes over the air so if I were in market I probably would reluctantly pay the $100 but then I guess I watch those other teams also. Maybe I find a radio package. Is DBack TV the only option to see Diamond back games in market? If given a choice between RSN through paid TV provider or a $100 Dback TV where would most land? If these were the options for the Twins I wonder if viewership would be reduced. It sure seems like revenue would take a hit. edit: I tried getting clarity on the linear TV options. Apparently that piece is not worked out yet according to the Arizona Republic. I wonder if it would also be subscription based in order for the DBacks to get revenue from this option.
  24. jorgenswest
    Signing decline phase veterans to one year lower dollar contracts is a recipe for mediocrity. In order to compete at this budget level they need to develop their own cost controlled talent. Instead they are filling the bench and back of bullpen with short term low upside veterans.
  25. jorgenswest
    I would have taken the Farmer and Santana and DeSclafani dollars and spent them on one player. It would be close to the Corbin Burnes salary. Deal Polanco to Seattle but let them keep DeSclafani. I wonder if Seattle does the deal without DeSclafani. Nontender Farmer Win the Corbin Burnes trade. They can better DJ Hall with Varland and then add two other prospects like Gonzalez and Miller or Salas. If dollars remain as add that bat against left handed pitching. The fight for Farmer’s utility spot is between Martin, Helman and Prato. The fight for Santana’s more regular role is between Miranda, Severino and Lee (Julien would get more time at 1B/DH). Burnes plus the two that emerge during the season of the 6 listed gives them a better shot in the playoffs than DeSclafani, Santana and Farmer. The 2025 team suffers with the loss of Varland but they will have a comp pick to develop in the longer term.
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