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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    ZIPs is more useful than using 2023 statistics but that is a pretty low bar.
  2. jorgenswest
    The risk in Polanco or Farmer is that they will decline in performance due to age or injury and the Twins will not be willing to cut loose their salary. Farmer is a risk for decline. His numbers look good last year they almost look like he improved over his previous year. It is the illusion of his use. In 2022 he was a regular and he faced a greater ratio of right handed pitching. In 2023 when the ratio shifted it appeared he improved when in reality the numbers had an increased ratio of at bats against lefties as compared to 2022. Last year his OPS+ against right handed pitching actually dropped from 92 to 87. I suppose that level would be OK if he were a plus defensively at SS but his DRS, RAA and UZR all are on the wrong side of zero over the last two years. There really isn’t space for more decline from his role of short side platoon utility player. He turns 34 in August and decline should be expected. Polanco is a risk for injury. They do have some depth so if they handle the injury by putting him on IL. They also might handle it by having him work through the injury on the roster. I think the bigger risk with injury is not the lost playing time but the poor play while working through the injury on the roster. If the Twins don’t trade either I would expect both to be on the roster all year no matter how they perform. The Twins will not let go of either salary quickly. If Farmer declines while Martin or Lee are showing readiness in AAA, I will be joining @Riverbrian in his recalling of Logan Morrison and the Twins unwillingness to cut him loose and provide an opportunity for younger players.
  3. jorgenswest
    Good point about 2020. They gave him an extended run of three before he was an average bat. Maybe the Twins should be more patient though it is easier to be patient when you aren’t in contention.
  4. jorgenswest
    I picked 18 because he was 18 but expand it from 16-20 over those 5 year and you will find some impactful players. It might be about a 1 in 5 chance. There are a lot of failed prospects and mediocre players in that group. Luzardo is already an impactful player. Three years of control of a impactful player should be very expensive and the Marlins should look for the single best player they can get. They can do better than a package headlined by Lee.
  5. jorgenswest
    Mullins got his first opportunity at age 23. He was up and down for three years until he ran out of options. It was his fourth opportunity at age 26 when he had run out of options before he posted a season with a wRC+ above 100. Weren’t the Orioles quite patient with his at best poor to average performance while waiting to be rewarded that 4th major league season? As for Altuve the guy crushed it in high A (169 wRC+) and AA (153 wRC+) to earn his opportunity half way into his AA season.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think the headline of the deal is critical and Pasquantino is a better headliner than Lee right now.. Brooks Lee was ranked 18th by MLB last year. We should be hopeful but here is some perspective. Look at the number 18s in the 5 year span 2014-2018. By now these players will have exhausted rule 5 status and options. Only one played in the majors last year. 2014 Alberto Almora (3.3) 2015 Blake Swihart (-0.3) 2016 Nomar Mazara (1.2) 2017 Lewis Brinson (-3.6) 2018 Alex Reyes (2.7) Reyes is the only one left playing. It is encouraging to have a number 18 prospect but most of these guys don’t have an impactful career. Until Lee shows solid success in the majors or destroys AAA pitching, Pasquantino is a better bet to have an impactful career. Lee’s wRC+ of 120 in AA and 78 in AAA don’t suggest an impactful career.
  7. jorgenswest
    For perspective I go back 10 years and look at the top 10. By now the players will have entered rule 5 status and exhausted options. The Yankees in 2014 paid a huge tax to go way beyond their bonus pool. The amount they paid in bonus and tax was close to the Astros entire major league payroll for that year. The top 10 from MLB Underwhelming would be an overstatement. Huascar Ynoa, Luis Gil and Brusdar Graterol were among Twins international signings that year.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think the Marlins will get a better headliner in the deal. Pasquantino is better than any of the 4 the proposed Twins offer. The Twins need to do better than Lee.
  9. jorgenswest
    Aren’t Miller and Woo part of the Mariners projected 5 man rotation? Wouldn’t Hancock be the 6th starter in AAA? Ray might be ready later in the summer. I don’t see their pitching depth. Last year 13 pitchers started a game for them. I don’t see them trading from those top 6 to get Polanco or Kepler. Maybe I am missing someone.
  10. jorgenswest
    They need someone. He was reasonably effective in a true long relief role after starting May 10 last year when his ERA was 7.96. I wouldn’t dismiss it. If they can’t find a better solution in trade, Manaea would be worth consideration.
  11. jorgenswest
    Of your examples, I think Jeffers best fits regression. I also expect regression to the mean from Gordon.
  12. jorgenswest
    Not yet. If they trade Farmer his right handed bat will be helpful.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think the outfield defense as a whole is better with him in RF and has been for a while. A few years ago Nick Gordon was playing CF at an adequate level with 0 RAA. Kepler wouldn’t be that much better but he would be much better than the alternative in RF. Overall the team defense is better with him in RF.
  14. jorgenswest
    The Pirates received 5 players for Musgrove including David Bednar and Endy Rodriguez. It is just hard to believe that the Twins had an opportunity to get him for Larnach and failed to do so.
  15. jorgenswest
    I read it several times and don’t see any information other than a writier suggesting a deal much like the many deals we see on the Twins Daily site. I don’t see a report of the Pirates even being engaged in talk with the Twins much less making an offer. This is the same author that suggested Priester for Kepler and Polanco. Neither was news. Is it possible that the Larnach/Musgrove was never real?
  16. jorgenswest
    Bundy received Cy Young award votes in 2020. He was a reasonable risk. He had a good April over 4 starts but by his 10th start in early June it should have been clear that it was time to move on. The mistake wasn’t signing him. It was not being willing to let him go.
  17. jorgenswest
    I will acknowledge that there isn’t a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. There does seem to be a benefit to balance. Sort the teams in the AL last year by strikeouts and then look to the average line. You will find the two teams that scored the most runs on each side of the average line. In the NL it was the second and third ranked teams surrounding the average strikeout line. Teams that strike out too often need more balls in play to move runners. Teams that don’t strike out and put balls in play too often don’t have the power to bring those runners in. A balanced line up or at least a line up that avoids the extremes seems conducive to scoring runs. The Twins disrupted that balance last year replacing Arraez with Gallo at first base. They did rebound in the second half but that coincided with less time for Gallo. Are they working this year to achieve better balance?
  18. jorgenswest
    I would do a Mahle type trade again given an opportunity this summer. The Santana trade was bad from the start. They didn’t get anyone that was the headline of the deal. We see those kinds of suggested deals often on this board where several Twins are offered for a single very good player. A bunch of 1-2 WAR players do not replace a 5+ WAR player. The Capps deal was a terrible trade. He had saves and ERA in his favor but the peripherals behind those suggested a mediocre pitcher.
  19. jorgenswest
    Is it also fair to say…? “If Twins Don’t Trade from Offensive Depth to Get Pitching Help, They'd Better Be Right”
  20. jorgenswest
    I think the one year deal is the way to go. Burnes excess value is 33.8. If you go back a few years to the point where he had three years of value his excess value would be more than three times greater. That is because his salaries escalate. The Twins would have to match about 115.1 in surplus value. That is assuming his projected production following last year. If we went back the few years he would have been coming off his best season and the projections would likely have been higher. For one year of control, they need to trade Brooks Lee to match the value and in return get Burnes and a comp pick. For three years of control, they would need to send Jenkins, Julien and Lee to get three years of Burnes and a single comp pick. The three actually come up a little short. It might be better to make this kind of trade annually than to pay the high price of that third year of control.
  21. jorgenswest
    Can you ever think that though? No team is going to have the likelihood of winning the World Series. Would it be enough to think that adding Burnes would put them among the top 8 teams in likelihood to win the World Series?
  22. jorgenswest
    I am in but I know the Brewers will get an offer with a better player at the top of the deal. They are essentially trading Burnes and a comp pick.
  23. jorgenswest
    Is Manoah a bigger risk than trading for a prospect? I think it matters that he has been successful at the major league level. I think I would bet on the 25 year old who has done it before over the promise of the prospect that probably isn’t much younger. I do acknowledge that it was reported on October 8 that he received an injection for his shoulder. It was further reported that his symptoms were not structural. The medicals will be important here.
  24. jorgenswest
    Where does the 400K come from? Isn’t it reflective of the Twins having more good young players receiving money than the share the Twins had to pay into the pool? Maybe I misunderstood the 2.1 and 1.7.
  25. jorgenswest
    Farmer’s value is the short side of a platoon. Last year his overall numbers were better than 2022 but in 2022 he was a regular facing a greater ratio of right handed pitching. The change in use gave the illusion that he had a better year. I question whether many teams see him as a regular shortstop. They must not have last seen him as a regular SS last year given his low cost to the Twins. His numbers against right handed pitching in 2023 didn’t do anything to change that view. If their view of his value hasn’t changed and his salary has gone up I am not sure there are many buyers. There are low cost options in free agency that are better bats against right handed pitching or better gloves at shortstop. The Twins have use for a short side platoon right handed bat to pair with Julien. Farmer also would be a useful late inning defensive replacement for Julien. If they trade Polanco there probably isn’t a better fit for Farmer than the Twins pairing him with Julien.
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