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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Twins don’t have a Hall to send. They need Ober and next is Varland. To match that deal or better it they would need to send someone like Emmanuel Rodriguez. I hope the Twins make the playoffs. I expect the Orioles will. DeSclafini isn’t likely to be on a playoff roster. Burnes would start game 1. His salary might be tough to fit in. They would have needed to trade Polanco without taking back significant salary and have the foresight to nontender Farmer as well as part the young players necessary to get Burnes. I would have gone the direction of putting my resources into one significant player that pushes everyone down a notch. The Twins went for depth. The depth will help them get to the playoffs. Elite players help teams win in the playoffs.
  2. jorgenswest
    I they they are already relying on too many aging players that they will be reluctant to release if they drop in performance. I don’t think they should add a short side platoon outfielder in the decline phase of their career. A trade of Larnach or Gordon to a team with a similarly aged right handed batting outfielder that has yet to establish themselves would be my preference. Jake Meyers? Jo Adell? Short of that I would turn to Martin first and then look at DFAs.
  3. jorgenswest
    The 2022 Gordon is one of their top 9 hitters against right handed pitching (OPS 793). I think there is a good chance that he is very helpful to this team. His contract won’t keep them from giving some of the AAA depth an opportunity. I am more concerned about the decisions to retain acquire players at an age where decline is a real possibility and might be retained. After two months of the season if Santana, Farmer or DeSclafini have dropped off they need to release them. They are really betting on spreading the dollars on those three aging players rather than getting one better player with the dollars and filling the other two spots from within. I hope the bet pays off.
  4. jorgenswest
    The roster appears set. I am looking forward to spring training.
  5. jorgenswest
    Every extra year of control is more expensive. Two year is more than twice as expensive in prospects as 1 year. Looking for three years? Around 40% of the prospect cost is that third year. There is much more surplus value in the first year of arbitration than the third. Those extra dollars saved in salary results in a higher prospect cost. One year of Burnes is very expensive. Two years more than twice as expensive and probably takes the Twins top two prospects. The Orioles did well in this trade. They get a year of Burnes and they will get a comp pick when he moves on in free agency. The Twins should not shy away from a deal for an ace with one year of control.
  6. jorgenswest
    I have confidence that Soler or Martinez would be a needed addition to the middle of the line up. My only preference for Martinez is I think he might take a one year commitment which I would prefer to three for Soler. Go hard after both and get one of them.
  7. jorgenswest
    The leadership nonsense is something I may have started. I wrote about Martinez and compared him to Cruz but my parallel was the elite work ethic that has helped them to defy aging curves. Somehow that turned into mostly a clubhouse focus. I wrote how they both had their best years and most all star appearances in their 30s. It is possible that this work ethic might have a positive impact on the clubhouse but probably not worth debating. My initial point was that Martinez has a good chance of exceeding projections as Cruz did later in his career due to his work ethic. His bat and whether it can help the Twins in the middle of the lineup is worth debating.
  8. jorgenswest
    Bob Nightengale reported that the Mariners are involved with Miller or Woo as the centerpiece. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with that offer. Bailey Ober is close but they Ober and Cease. I don’t think the division is the barrier to getting this deal done. The Twins don’t have the young controllable pitching talent to compete with the Mariners. If the Mariners drop out then maybe a package of Varland and Rodriguez would work,
  9. jorgenswest
    Last season Soler was described by his manager as a leader in the clubhouse. Either he or Martinez would be a necessary addition to the middle of the line up and so much better than the platoon bat options.
  10. jorgenswest
    Varland, Gonzalez and competitive pick B would have been comparable. I would do that deal and improve it some to win the deal.
  11. jorgenswest
    Soler for one year or three? One is OK. Wasn’t he pretty healthy in 2021? He had 604 PAs and an uninspiring wRC+ of 100.
  12. jorgenswest
    He wants three years. He probably isn’t getting that offer yet. Should we expect that his age 32-34 season will be as productive as his age 29-31 seasons? Some work ethic freaks like Cruz and Martinez defy expectations and play better in their 30s. Is that Soler’s reputation? Over 1488 plate appearances ages 29-31 he slashed 230/322/457 for an OPS+ of 109. All of his RF defensive metrics over the three years are well in the negatives without a single positive number in any year any metric. Is it reasonable to expect the OPS+ of 109 to decline some? Will he be playable in the outfield? I think JD Martinez is the better hitter next year. I would prefer him and try to get him to a contract similar to the one they gave Cruz. I want the better hitter and would give up the occasional flexibility of the poor RF Soler can offer.
  13. jorgenswest
    If Soler is the better option, why wouldn’t a team sign him rather than trade assets for Kepler? The answer must be the cost of the contract. If the Twins are willing to trade Kepler and take some of the burden of his contract either through sending dollars or taking back a bad contract then I can see this deal. The Twins would also get prospects or useful major league players in return. If they make this kind of deal they wouldn’t have the budget to get Soler either though.
  14. jorgenswest
    Last year they really needed help at 1B late in the season. I was surprised they didn’t try Wallner or Larnach. I looked and neither has played 1B in the minors or college. That surprised me but I shouldn’t assume that anyone can play 1B. That may be Julien’s eventual spot.
  15. jorgenswest
    I wonder also but Seattle has money constraints also. It would be a challenge for them to take both contracts without the Twins including money or taking bad contracts. The money probably wouldn’t be there to go get that bat. It will be frustrating as these wonders turn into mythical facts that the Twins could have had the dollars and Woo or Miller.
  16. jorgenswest
    You absolutely can get to a 2.61 ERA in 75 innings with smoke and mirrors. I chose the other stats for their low stabilization rates. ERA is pretty useless for assessing relievers because it takes so many innings for it to stabilize. A starter doesn’t throw enough innings in a single season. People see ERAs of relievers vary significantly from year to year and come to the conclusion that relievers are volatile in their performance. It is really random variation due to sample. Strikeout rates, walk rates and groundball rates stay pretty consistent because they don’t need a large sample to stabilize.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don’t want a platoon bat either.
  18. jorgenswest
    Sign JD Martinez. I think he will outhit Polanco this year and the lineup will be better than it was before the trade. Nelson Cruz was a great addition to the line up and the clubhouse. Martinez has a similar work ethic. It wasn’t a problem that our DH hit so well that players cycled to the bench for rest instead of cycling through DH.
  19. jorgenswest
    There was an opportunity.
  20. jorgenswest
    They need to put it on the front burner.
  21. jorgenswest
    Flora has been a useful reliever. When with the Dodgers he made their World Series roster in two seasons and pitched in 5 of those games. We didn't see the best of Floro and our defense behind him let him down a few times. A groundball pitcher counts on the defense. His FIP and xFIP with the Twins was in the 3s. His career ERA is 3.42 If Topa gives the Twins innings and an ERA below 4 he will be a useful middle inning reliever. This is something they could have found in free agency but save a million or two compared to what they might have spent on the free agent market.
  22. jorgenswest
    Cruz wasn’t projected to be Cruz either. His work caring for his body defied projection. Martinez and his work ethic has been a theme with every one of his teams. Cruz made an all star just once before age 30 and 6 after age 30. Martinez has one before and five after so far. I wonder if Martinez is also defying projection. He certainly did last year with his .893 OPS.
  23. jorgenswest
    JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse.
  24. jorgenswest
    Isn’t it a question of heath? Doesn’t he have an OPS of .852 in AAA over 649 PAs? I hope the Twins are a little more open minded in spring training and particularly the work outside of the games. I expect that he will need some time in AAA but I would hope he has a chance to excel and win a major league job this spring.
  25. jorgenswest
    I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season. Justin Topa 19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB% Dylan Floro 23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG% Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million. They are both entering their age 33 seasons.
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