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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    He had a good seasons in AA and AAA at 21 and 22 and arrived in the majors at 22. He had a BABIP fueled (.448) 2020 and found the other side of BABIP in 2021 and 2021. As he arrived on the Twins, his path is similar to Celestino. Like Celestino, he was pushed to the majors young. He made mistakes at the plate, on the bases and in the field as a result of that rush. You might even recall Celestino’s BABIP fueled first two month of 2022 that gave false hope of his readiness. The Tigers ran out of patience at age 25 after 1007 at bats. I don’t think it was the change of scenery. I think it is the maturation of a player that takes time as he was rushed to the major league level. edit: Escobar also arrived in the majors at 22 and was rushed through the minors.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins will should plan for 7 pitchers needing to make 8 or more starts and they will probably have a 8th starter with 5. Last year Ober was number 6 and Varland 7 to begin season. If they add a starter, Varland is their best option for number 6 with Woods-Richardson and Festa following. I would Varland start in AAA and expect he will be needed in the rotation. If Woods-Richardson and Festa step it up then they might convert him to the bullpen during the season.
  3. jorgenswest
    I enjoyed today’s immaculate challenge. (10/28) It is possible to complete the grid with all Twins and reasonably represent all of the positions around the diamond. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 209 9/9: Rarity: 7 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref
  4. jorgenswest
    I think he fits as the 7th starter between Varland and Festa ready in AAA for next year. That will give him 6-10 starts if he is not passed by Festa and more if he makes the most of the opportunity.
  5. jorgenswest
    Maeda is probably valued at 14-15 million. They could go try to sign a pitcher to 15 million like Lorenzan, Morton or Perez. That presents two challenges. One challenge is that they aren’t the only team looking at these pitchers. The other challenge is to get them to agree to one year for these older pitchers. They could trade for someone projected similarly like Kikuchi. He has one year left in his contract. There would be a prospect or player cost that has some value. There is no certainty a trade partner can be found. The benefit of overpaying by making a qualifying offer is the certainty of the signing that you can’t get in free agency and the retention of prospects. Even if Maeda chooses not to accept they get that certainty before heading into free agency. The downside is the extra burden on the budget. I would let him go but I get the benefits of making the qualifying offer.
  6. jorgenswest
    Good work @Riverbrian on the catching usage. I think we need all three of Jeffers, Vazquez and Camargo next year. Love this thread and hope a few at can’t stop bantering back and forth take it to DM or create their own tampering discussion.
  7. jorgenswest
    Whichever role he lands in, he needs to find a swing and miss pitch to help with right handed batters. I think the cutter is helping him more with left handed hitters. Like Ryan, he is very fastball reliant and both he and Ryan will really freed to develop a pitch that keeps the right handed bats off balance. I think both will get there. If Varland remains fastball mix reliant, he will have pitched himself out of the rotation for lack of an effective breaking ball.
  8. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they should prioritize roster changes to increase stolen bases. They should utilize the talents they have on the roster but I am not sure they have much more that can squeeze out an 80% success rate. They can be situationally smarter. If their right handed hitters that tend towards contact are coming up it would be wise to start the runner more often to stay out of the double play. Correa makes hard contact, bats right handed and doesn’t strike out as often. Those all lead to double plays. They need to take more risks with Julien, Polanco or Lewis on base in front of him.
  9. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the league average qualifier. He had a 100 wRC+. In 2021 it was 88 in high A. He repeated high A to start 2022 and it was 121 then he played the bulk of the season in AA at 92. Last year he was league average at 100. Jeffers and Rortvedt performed better relative to league. Jeffer’s wRC+ in the minors ranged 109-203 with a AA of 151. Rortvedt was 101 in AA and AAA and 132 in high A. Last year Rortvedt was 128 in AAA. I think our perception of Rortvedt was as a defense first catcher yet perceptions of Camargo are for his bat but relative to league Rortvedt was better while coming up with the Twins. It is partly the illusion of the run scoring context in AAA last year. Camargo is improving. He needs more time to develop his bat and reduce strike outs if he is going to help in the majors.
  10. jorgenswest
    Do you think teams are going to ignore that skew in OPS given that he spent much of the year as a platoon player? In 2022 as a regular he had 165 extra plate appearances against right handed pitching and only 25 extra plate appearances against lefties. He hits lefties much better than righties. If you adjust the 2022 ratio of plate appearances to that of 2023 his OPS+ for 2022 would have been 106. I think the Twins saw that and hoped to get that level of platoon production but he didn’t dominate lefties as he had in 2022. Going the other direction if you take his 2023 numbers and scale them to that of a regular, his OPS+ is 93 and virtually the same as it was in 2022. Much of his WAR comes from his at bats against lefties. I don’t think any contender would view him as an every day SS. I do think he is valuable to the Twins in a platoon/bench even with some decline. I don’t think he has very much value in excess of his arb 3 contract though. I would be really surprised if teams would give up a significant prospect. I do think getting a return of a similarly salaried 1-1.5 WAR veteran is possible. I do think a prospect like Balazovic (out of options) or Headrick (getting old and needs a 40 spot) is possible. While we disagree about the potential return, we both hope you are proved correct.
  11. jorgenswest
    I am not trading Jeffers. I also don’t expect his numbers will be as strong next year. His slash stats were much higher than the expected batting average and slugging average based on contact from statcast. I think those are a better indicator of future performance. He may actually take a step forward next year but not get quite the same results. In that sense it might be a sell high.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think both years were very similar. The slash stats favor 2023. Underneath those numbers is his ratio of at bats against left handed hitters. In 2022 when he was a regular he had a higher ratio of plate appearances against right handed batters which drove down his overall numbers. His fWAR in both years was virtually the same and both a drop from 2021. I think teams would probably project some decline with the glove and bat and would not view him as a starter at SS but rather a useful veteran addition to the bench. The return should be similar.
  13. jorgenswest
    What is the demand? The supply is low as starting shortstops are not hitting free agency. Doesn’t that mean the demand will be low? The Marlins are looking for an upgrade but they are trying to upgrade from Berti who is the same age which slightly above average defensive metrics and an OPS+ of 103. Farmer would be a downtown grade. For comparison Berti’s BtV value is 11.4 and Farmer’s is 1.6. Rosario is 9.8. I think only Mondesi in your tweet is lower. In the top 30 MLB pipeline there are 12 shortstops including 5 of the first 11. Ten of those have an ETA of 2024 or played at the end of last season. The Giants may move on from Crawford but they have one of those top SS prospects. The White Sox may move on from Anderson but they have one too. The Dodgers need a SS but they aim for the World Series. I think they will set their sites higher. I don’t see the demand and it may have been easier to trade Farmer last year when several teams lost a good starter and the demand was high. Farmer’s value at BTV value just below Balazovic, Headrick and Sabato. It might be a toss up whether to tender him and DFA someone else. They can trade him at the expense of someone like Balazovic but there is no gain. They will end up getting back in trade about what they lost. I think it is reasonable to expect a return similar to what they received for Urshela or traded for Farmer.
  14. jorgenswest
    He is out of options. Would you make him the number 5 starter? Would you DFA him in hopes of getting him through waivers and then start him in AAA?
  15. jorgenswest
    Berti is 33 with an OPS of 749 and slightly above average defensive metrics. I don’t see how Farmer at the same age would be an upgrade. An upgrade might be their number 5 prospect who has a very good glove. Is that the best we have in a demand for Farmer? I think there are more prospects in the pipeline than starters retiring. Crawford from the Giants? There are 12 shortstops in the top 30 of the MLB pipeline. Many have any ETA of 2024 or arrived in late 2023. The Giants have one of them.
  16. jorgenswest
    A back up could be the top SS. It is a zero sum game. No one is losing a starting shortstop to free agency either. There are a few other teams with a tender or option decision like the White Sox and Anderson but that only adds to the supply when White Sox decide to go with their top prospect Montgomery. It actually might have a better market for the Reds to deal Farmer last year with so many teams in need of a SS. It could be a similar return as Urshela or similar to what the Twins traded. In that case it becomes a choice about whether the guy they take off the 40 to tender and trade Farmer is worth more than what they can get back for Farmer. If it is a player like Balazovic, I think it will be a close call.
  17. jorgenswest
    For any of these decisions options have a lot of value to the Twins. Alcala, Moran, Henriquez and Ortega have options remaining. Luplow, Stevenson, Gordon and Balazovic are out of options. They need to sustain performance at the major league level. Gordon is the only one who has shown sustained performance over a season unless you go back to 2019 for Luplow. I would give Gordon priority among the 4 who would need to be rostered all season. Free agents will be dropped from the roster and Farmer may be non tendered due to his arb 3 contract. After De León, Luplow, Stevenson I think Balazovic would be my next to go if roster space is needed. He is going to have to perform at a much higher level to make it through the season without DFA.
  18. jorgenswest
    I have no idea how his spring training shoulder injury impacted his season. Miranda shown in AAA a 156 (AA was 162) wRC+ in 2021 and a major league wRC+ of 117 in 2022. Neither of those numbers came with a high BABIP or high strikeout rates. Severino could get there. He had a wRC+ of 165 in high A in 2022 and his AA was 139 last year. He needs to show that kind of performance in AAA over an extended time period before I would plan for him to take over at 1B. Miranda has shown he can produce in extended periods at both AAA and the majors. That performance should not be disregarded.
  19. jorgenswest
    When should time run out? Some suggest 1500 plate appearances.
  20. jorgenswest
    Severino had a wRC+ of 100 in AAA in his 153 PAs. Severino’s numbers in AAA look good until you realize it is typical in the run scoring context of the International League. For context, Celestino was 106 last year and no one would be lobbying for him at corner position. I think Severino needs a half season in AAA to show a wRC+ of 130 or better and put up a lower strikeout rate. The Twins had the patience for Wallner to get to that level and lower his strike out rate. They need patience with Severino. It would help if Julien can play a passable 1B.
  21. jorgenswest
    I wonder if clarity in a TV contract needs to be high on the to do list.
  22. jorgenswest
    Three thoughts… Those 40 man spots are valuable in season and it is a burden to carry anyone that won’t see the major leagues. If they add anyone in free agency they would need to DFA someone. It might be better to keep that spot open. A DFA’d player only needs to be added to the 40. They don’t need to make the opening day roster like a rule 5 pick. The risk of losing an asset is greater. If you pick an Olivar in the rule 5 draft you need to keep him on the 26. If Olivar’s spot on the 40 is needed during the season he would need to be DFA’d and would only need to be kept on another team’s 40. The options clock starts as soon as a player is put on the 40. As an international signing Celestino was put on the 40 quite young and now he is out of options at the same age as Austin Martin who hasn’t started options yet. Willi Castro is an example of another player added to the 40 quite young and then didn’t flourish until it was too late for the Tigers. Using Olivar as an example again, should they start his options clock knowing catchers can take longer to be ready?
  23. jorgenswest
    Gordon’s RAA at SS is 0 and it is 0 at 2B as well as LF. He is only below 0 is center field. Castro has a lot of innings at SS and while below average not dismal. Lewis has a lot of minor league innings at SS. Lee is close to ready. Is that enough to risk letting Farmer and his arb3 go at age 33 where decline at both the bat and glove should be expected?
  24. jorgenswest
    Possible reasons for Gordon… His wRC+ on 2022 was 111 which would have ranked ninth on the team this year. As bad as his .179 BABIP season was this year his xBA and xSLG were both better than Castro’s. His strikeout rate was a very low 11.8% and probably the only number that stabilized in his sample this year. If the argument is that his 2022 performance isn’t good enough to make the team or even be taken to spring training then I look forward to next year’s roster.
  25. jorgenswest
    Would you fill to 40?
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