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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Not yet. If they trade Farmer his right handed bat will be helpful.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think the outfield defense as a whole is better with him in RF and has been for a while. A few years ago Nick Gordon was playing CF at an adequate level with 0 RAA. Kepler wouldn’t be that much better but he would be much better than the alternative in RF. Overall the team defense is better with him in RF.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Pirates received 5 players for Musgrove including David Bednar and Endy Rodriguez. It is just hard to believe that the Twins had an opportunity to get him for Larnach and failed to do so.
  4. jorgenswest
    I read it several times and don’t see any information other than a writier suggesting a deal much like the many deals we see on the Twins Daily site. I don’t see a report of the Pirates even being engaged in talk with the Twins much less making an offer. This is the same author that suggested Priester for Kepler and Polanco. Neither was news. Is it possible that the Larnach/Musgrove was never real?
  5. jorgenswest
    Bundy received Cy Young award votes in 2020. He was a reasonable risk. He had a good April over 4 starts but by his 10th start in early June it should have been clear that it was time to move on. The mistake wasn’t signing him. It was not being willing to let him go.
  6. jorgenswest
    I will acknowledge that there isn’t a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. There does seem to be a benefit to balance. Sort the teams in the AL last year by strikeouts and then look to the average line. You will find the two teams that scored the most runs on each side of the average line. In the NL it was the second and third ranked teams surrounding the average strikeout line. Teams that strike out too often need more balls in play to move runners. Teams that don’t strike out and put balls in play too often don’t have the power to bring those runners in. A balanced line up or at least a line up that avoids the extremes seems conducive to scoring runs. The Twins disrupted that balance last year replacing Arraez with Gallo at first base. They did rebound in the second half but that coincided with less time for Gallo. Are they working this year to achieve better balance?
  7. jorgenswest
    I would do a Mahle type trade again given an opportunity this summer. The Santana trade was bad from the start. They didn’t get anyone that was the headline of the deal. We see those kinds of suggested deals often on this board where several Twins are offered for a single very good player. A bunch of 1-2 WAR players do not replace a 5+ WAR player. The Capps deal was a terrible trade. He had saves and ERA in his favor but the peripherals behind those suggested a mediocre pitcher.
  8. jorgenswest
    Is it also fair to say…? “If Twins Don’t Trade from Offensive Depth to Get Pitching Help, They'd Better Be Right”
  9. jorgenswest
    I think the one year deal is the way to go. Burnes excess value is 33.8. If you go back a few years to the point where he had three years of value his excess value would be more than three times greater. That is because his salaries escalate. The Twins would have to match about 115.1 in surplus value. That is assuming his projected production following last year. If we went back the few years he would have been coming off his best season and the projections would likely have been higher. For one year of control, they need to trade Brooks Lee to match the value and in return get Burnes and a comp pick. For three years of control, they would need to send Jenkins, Julien and Lee to get three years of Burnes and a single comp pick. The three actually come up a little short. It might be better to make this kind of trade annually than to pay the high price of that third year of control.
  10. jorgenswest
    Can you ever think that though? No team is going to have the likelihood of winning the World Series. Would it be enough to think that adding Burnes would put them among the top 8 teams in likelihood to win the World Series?
  11. jorgenswest
    I am in but I know the Brewers will get an offer with a better player at the top of the deal. They are essentially trading Burnes and a comp pick.
  12. jorgenswest
    Is Manoah a bigger risk than trading for a prospect? I think it matters that he has been successful at the major league level. I think I would bet on the 25 year old who has done it before over the promise of the prospect that probably isn’t much younger. I do acknowledge that it was reported on October 8 that he received an injection for his shoulder. It was further reported that his symptoms were not structural. The medicals will be important here.
  13. jorgenswest
    Where does the 400K come from? Isn’t it reflective of the Twins having more good young players receiving money than the share the Twins had to pay into the pool? Maybe I misunderstood the 2.1 and 1.7.
  14. jorgenswest
    Farmer’s value is the short side of a platoon. Last year his overall numbers were better than 2022 but in 2022 he was a regular facing a greater ratio of right handed pitching. The change in use gave the illusion that he had a better year. I question whether many teams see him as a regular shortstop. They must not have last seen him as a regular SS last year given his low cost to the Twins. His numbers against right handed pitching in 2023 didn’t do anything to change that view. If their view of his value hasn’t changed and his salary has gone up I am not sure there are many buyers. There are low cost options in free agency that are better bats against right handed pitching or better gloves at shortstop. The Twins have use for a short side platoon right handed bat to pair with Julien. Farmer also would be a useful late inning defensive replacement for Julien. If they trade Polanco there probably isn’t a better fit for Farmer than the Twins pairing him with Julien.
  15. jorgenswest
    I agree about Jenkins. I would do the Julien deal also but I don’t think it is enough. Someone will offer a better player that isn’t a platoon player. I don’t think it can be fixed by adding marginal players to go with Julien.
  16. jorgenswest
    If getting the best young ready position player in a 1 for 1 deal is the Marlins goal, the only player the Twins have with a BTV value of Pasquantino is Lewis. The others are about 20% below his value. Of course it depends on the Marlins view but I assume it is very favorable of Pasquantino. If Julien is the best 1 for 1 the Twins have to offer, I think many teams can beat that deal starting with the Yankees and Volpe.
  17. jorgenswest
    In that case I would expect Luzardo to be moved. Someone will have a Pasquantino to offer. On the other hand, I probably don’t value Pasquantino as much as I should. His BTV value surprised me as it was comparable with Jenkins and Ryan. I would have guessed below Lee and Julien. Assuming the Marlins are looking for the best 1 for 1 and not a package of lesser players, would you trade Jenkins for him?
  18. jorgenswest
    Someone backed out on this deal or leaked the rumor. Is it possible the Marlins asked for more and then the Royals went the free agency route instead? The deal didn’t happen for some reason. Did the deal get leaked in hopes of getting other teams in on Luzardo?
  19. jorgenswest
    I think they will get better offers than those three. Once Yamamoto signs there will be some large market teams that lost out that would give up a lot for Luzardo. It would probably take two of Julien, Lee or Jeffers and a low level minor leaguer but I still don’t think that is enough to headline the deal. Other teams will send a better top player.
  20. jorgenswest
    Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.
  21. jorgenswest
    Priester would move in front of Festa, Woods-Richardson and maybe Varland in starting pitching depth list. Adding him might mean they can add Varland the the major league pen. They still need to add a veteran to the rotation.
  22. jorgenswest
    The third year of control is very expensive as it combines a lower Arb salary to go with the projected level of performance. I did some math on the surplus value of that third year in a different thread but it is equivalent to about 40% of his value. Essentially that third year of control for Luzardo is equivalent to the value of Jeffers. Is one year of Luzardo worth Jeffers? I think they are better off seeking pitchers with one or two years of control and then either extend them or take the comp pick.
  23. jorgenswest
    Alcala is getting old but Pressly didn’t make an all star game until age 30 and wasn’t very effective at 28. Hendriks at 30 and with his 8th team (two stops in Toronto) before his big step forward. I don’t think age is a worry. It is health. I would keep this talented arm on the 40 and make use of an option if necessary this year. Stewart is also often injured. They really need Sands to step up and give the good reliable low leverage work they were getting from Pagán. Even last year Pagán did not pitch well in high leverage but he was ready to pitch every day. Where will that readiness come from this year? I am hoping on Sands.
  24. jorgenswest
    https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-miranda-withdraws-from-world-baseball-classic
  25. jorgenswest
    I expect Ryan and Ober to take a step forward this year. I would trust them as much as I would have trusted Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray as a Ranger fan.
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