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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think the one year deal is the way to go. Burnes excess value is 33.8. If you go back a few years to the point where he had three years of value his excess value would be more than three times greater. That is because his salaries escalate. The Twins would have to match about 115.1 in surplus value. That is assuming his projected production following last year. If we went back the few years he would have been coming off his best season and the projections would likely have been higher. For one year of control, they need to trade Brooks Lee to match the value and in return get Burnes and a comp pick. For three years of control, they would need to send Jenkins, Julien and Lee to get three years of Burnes and a single comp pick. The three actually come up a little short. It might be better to make this kind of trade annually than to pay the high price of that third year of control.
  2. jorgenswest
    Can you ever think that though? No team is going to have the likelihood of winning the World Series. Would it be enough to think that adding Burnes would put them among the top 8 teams in likelihood to win the World Series?
  3. jorgenswest
    I am in but I know the Brewers will get an offer with a better player at the top of the deal. They are essentially trading Burnes and a comp pick.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is Manoah a bigger risk than trading for a prospect? I think it matters that he has been successful at the major league level. I think I would bet on the 25 year old who has done it before over the promise of the prospect that probably isn’t much younger. I do acknowledge that it was reported on October 8 that he received an injection for his shoulder. It was further reported that his symptoms were not structural. The medicals will be important here.
  5. jorgenswest
    Where does the 400K come from? Isn’t it reflective of the Twins having more good young players receiving money than the share the Twins had to pay into the pool? Maybe I misunderstood the 2.1 and 1.7.
  6. jorgenswest
    Farmer’s value is the short side of a platoon. Last year his overall numbers were better than 2022 but in 2022 he was a regular facing a greater ratio of right handed pitching. The change in use gave the illusion that he had a better year. I question whether many teams see him as a regular shortstop. They must not have last seen him as a regular SS last year given his low cost to the Twins. His numbers against right handed pitching in 2023 didn’t do anything to change that view. If their view of his value hasn’t changed and his salary has gone up I am not sure there are many buyers. There are low cost options in free agency that are better bats against right handed pitching or better gloves at shortstop. The Twins have use for a short side platoon right handed bat to pair with Julien. Farmer also would be a useful late inning defensive replacement for Julien. If they trade Polanco there probably isn’t a better fit for Farmer than the Twins pairing him with Julien.
  7. jorgenswest
    I agree about Jenkins. I would do the Julien deal also but I don’t think it is enough. Someone will offer a better player that isn’t a platoon player. I don’t think it can be fixed by adding marginal players to go with Julien.
  8. jorgenswest
    If getting the best young ready position player in a 1 for 1 deal is the Marlins goal, the only player the Twins have with a BTV value of Pasquantino is Lewis. The others are about 20% below his value. Of course it depends on the Marlins view but I assume it is very favorable of Pasquantino. If Julien is the best 1 for 1 the Twins have to offer, I think many teams can beat that deal starting with the Yankees and Volpe.
  9. jorgenswest
    In that case I would expect Luzardo to be moved. Someone will have a Pasquantino to offer. On the other hand, I probably don’t value Pasquantino as much as I should. His BTV value surprised me as it was comparable with Jenkins and Ryan. I would have guessed below Lee and Julien. Assuming the Marlins are looking for the best 1 for 1 and not a package of lesser players, would you trade Jenkins for him?
  10. jorgenswest
    Someone backed out on this deal or leaked the rumor. Is it possible the Marlins asked for more and then the Royals went the free agency route instead? The deal didn’t happen for some reason. Did the deal get leaked in hopes of getting other teams in on Luzardo?
  11. jorgenswest
    I think they will get better offers than those three. Once Yamamoto signs there will be some large market teams that lost out that would give up a lot for Luzardo. It would probably take two of Julien, Lee or Jeffers and a low level minor leaguer but I still don’t think that is enough to headline the deal. Other teams will send a better top player.
  12. jorgenswest
    Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.
  13. jorgenswest
    Priester would move in front of Festa, Woods-Richardson and maybe Varland in starting pitching depth list. Adding him might mean they can add Varland the the major league pen. They still need to add a veteran to the rotation.
  14. jorgenswest
    The third year of control is very expensive as it combines a lower Arb salary to go with the projected level of performance. I did some math on the surplus value of that third year in a different thread but it is equivalent to about 40% of his value. Essentially that third year of control for Luzardo is equivalent to the value of Jeffers. Is one year of Luzardo worth Jeffers? I think they are better off seeking pitchers with one or two years of control and then either extend them or take the comp pick.
  15. jorgenswest
    Alcala is getting old but Pressly didn’t make an all star game until age 30 and wasn’t very effective at 28. Hendriks at 30 and with his 8th team (two stops in Toronto) before his big step forward. I don’t think age is a worry. It is health. I would keep this talented arm on the 40 and make use of an option if necessary this year. Stewart is also often injured. They really need Sands to step up and give the good reliable low leverage work they were getting from Pagán. Even last year Pagán did not pitch well in high leverage but he was ready to pitch every day. Where will that readiness come from this year? I am hoping on Sands.
  16. jorgenswest
    https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-miranda-withdraws-from-world-baseball-classic
  17. jorgenswest
    I expect Ryan and Ober to take a step forward this year. I would trust them as much as I would have trusted Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray as a Ranger fan.
  18. jorgenswest
    That was my initial thought and then I looked at alternatives. Glasnow is projected for 3.8 WAR. His salary is 25 million which really helps. Think of that value as cash in the deal to avoid prospect cost. At 25M his surplus value is only 12.8. Festa can headline a deal at that level. At the end of the year Glasnow can be offered a qualifying offer with a comp pick in return. What are the alternatives? The prospect cost of a pitcher with three years of control projected at 3.8 WAR will be very high. Still using Glasnow as an example, he is project for 37.8 in value. Over three years that is 113.4. A player like this would likely just be entering their ARB years. That might be 35M over 3 years. The prospect cost for getting a similar pitcher with three years of control is 78.4. That would cost Lewis plus a little more or it could be Lee or Jenkins plus Julien to get there. I would rather trade a Festa each year than a Lewis every three years. It does have payroll implications but that is mostly year 1 when the three year player’s arb award is low. If Glasgow is a risk then go after Burnes or Bieber. Risks can be found in all. It is the concept of targeting players with one year of control every year that I am considering. The prospect cost is much lower and comp picks will come back.
  19. jorgenswest
    I was thinking yesterday about how expensive it is to buy those extra years of control. I wonder if targeting a pitcher with 1 year of control each year might be optimal. The Twins couldn’t put a package together to acquire someone Burnes two years ago but now it is feasible. Glasnow and Bieber are almost reasonable. They would constantly be trading out good but not their best prospects. They would get some resupply with comp picks. Why not trade Festa and Miranda (or Schobel) for Glasnow or Bieber and do it again next year and the year after?
  20. jorgenswest
    Miami already has Berti and he is a much better version of Farmer. I am sure they would like a clear upgrade for next year and I am not sure the Twins have that. Brooks Lee would fit in behind Berti ready to take over next season or earlier when he dominates AAA. I don’t see them having any need for Farmer.
  21. jorgenswest
    They traded Arraez and that third year of control in the Lopez deal. It might be the sweet spot for trading a player. Players have had enough time to drive up their trade value and they are now entering a phase where salaries escalate. The Twins bank the 10.3 WAR for little cost and then trade off that extra third year of control to get a lot more in return. In Luzardo’s case the 63.3 for the years is a 71% increase over the projected 38.7 for two years.
  22. jorgenswest
    I was thinking on the minors end where we took 4 and lost no one.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think the sweet spot is the pitcher with two years of control. That third year is very expensive since it will come at a low arb cost. Using BTV’s numbers Luzardo is expected to be worth 91.3 million in value over the next three years. He is expected to make 28 million in arbitration so his surplus is 63.3. A good deal of the surplus comes from that extra third year where he is projected to be awarded 5.9 million in arbitration. A year from now he will be expected 22.1 in salary left and have about 60.8 of his value left. His surplus value will have dropped nearly 25 million. The cost of that extra one season is close to Jeffers. I like Luzardo but that third year costs too much. I wouldn’t trade Jeffers or even Rodriguez for one season of Luzardo but that is essentially what they would be doing getting that third year of control.
  24. jorgenswest
    I wonder if not losing anyone is a sign that their system is not as strong. It is great not to lose anyone. Is it better to have so much depth that teams want the back end of that depth when they have to be left available?
  25. jorgenswest
    My other thought is… Let’s suppose they both have very good seasons in their contract years. I would think Verdugo’s age would make him a better bet to merit a qualifying offer adding possible value.
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