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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Gray today. Have they announced tomorrow’s starter?. I think they have enough in the pen to hold back Maeda as long as Gray takes them into the 6th and there isn’t extra innings. I would go with Maeda game 3. I think the his pitch mix will be more difficult in the late afternoon sun. Should they get to Houston they can go Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Lopez.
  2. jorgenswest
    Left handed batter. Correa shifted to just behind second base and Julien playing towards first. With that alignment, I think Correa’s responsibility with a ball hit to towards third is to take the throw at second base. He is much closer to the bag. He made an amazing play with his instinct and talent.
  3. jorgenswest
    In this case it is one or the other. Martin has the options and Celestino the higher OBP. Celestino had the best BB/K ratio in the organization at 1.14 with St. Paul leading to the high OBP. As for slap hitters the Twins certainly don’t seem to favor the low strike out contact type hitters. It can take time to develop that skill as players need to learn to be aggressive on the good pitches to drive and patient on pitches where they have the skill to make contact but the contact is weak. Wade was 27 before he showed any power. It is tough with international players who run out of optIons so soon. Detroit gave Castro through age 25 to show his value and the Twins were the benefactor at 26. Celestino ran out of time here. I don’t disagree with the move as I think they would have had to make room on the 40 and it doesn’t appear that he would be among the top 4 outfielders next year. I do wonder if he would have had a little more trade value into the off-season. Some teams must value those on base low strike out skills. They would have needed to release Keuchel instead of IL him to clear that spot. The Twins received very little for Wade so it probably doesn't matter. Teams are needing to clear spots on the 40 now for the 60 day IL players and players need to add to avoid the rule 5. The demand will be low.
  4. jorgenswest
    I do see the difference in stolen bases and the ability to play second base. I don’t see more production at the bat by looking at that stat line. They are virtually the same in AAA. Celestino really has very little minor league time. He had a full season at lower full season A level in 2019, no baseball in 2020, rushed to the majors in 2021, sat on the bench in 2022 and battled back from injury this year. Is that what you mean by stagnated? It really reminds me how useless traditional stat lines can be even after a season of play. A 24 year old with a .392 OBP a several more walks than strike outs looks at least somewhat worthwhile. You can find a nearly identical AAA season from LaMonte Wade in 2019. Wade was a year older and his WRC+ a few ticks lower. Another player that stagnated?
  5. jorgenswest
    Celestino was removed. It isn’t surprising but maybe a little sobering for our perception of Martin’s progress in AAA. Celestino had a WOBA .001 points better than Martin and their ISO, OBP and SLG were very close. Both are 24 but Celestino is out of options and Martin has 3. Hopefully Celestino will get a chance from someone and make the most of it as Castro did this year. edited to fix mistake on number of options. Thanks chpettit19.
  6. jorgenswest
    I am looking for another pitcher to on the roster game 162. This won’t impact decisions about Correa or Lewis.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins need a pitcher who can give them length tomorrow that won’t be on the playoff roster. I don’t think Ober will go deep into the game. I wouldn’t use Varland more than an inning. It might be telling if Funderburk is used multiple innings tomorrow. I think I would bring back someone on the 40 that can throw 80 or more pitches to protect the rest of the pen if Ober has a short start. I don’t know the rules but if they send out Funderburk in the regular season he has to be out 10 days. He might be needed in the second series. DFA Keuchel?
  8. jorgenswest
    The cost of Pham was a top 50 international prospect from this year. The Twins could have beaten that offer by sending their top international signee and possibly another asset if Castro was not viewed as better by the Mets. The cost of Canha was a 23 year old starting pitcher in AA. With the Brewers Justin Jarvis had 91 strike outs and 26 walk in 75.2 innings and a 3.69 ERA. He was the Brewers 12th ranked prospect in the pipeline and entered the Mets as their 13th. A comp on the Twins might be 23 year old David Festa though his AA ERA was 4.39. To beat the offer they probably need to replace Festa with a better prospect of add someone to the deal. The cost for Pham or Canha was not a top 100 global prospect and maybe that is the “not much” line. Prospects like Festa and Ariel Castro should not be parted with easily though. In this case they may not have been enough to best the offers of the other teams. If you do make that deal you need some luck also. Pham has the same WAR (0.3) as Luplow in spite of much more playing time. Canha has 1.0 WAR but he has also three times the plate appearances. That leaves me to wonder if they had traded that level of asset for Canha or Pham would that have relegated Wallner to a bench role?
  9. jorgenswest
    They have kept Maeda stretched out. It is a possibility. The Dodgers used Maeda as a high leverage reliever in the playoffs. His value there was similar to that of a starter. If his role in this playoffs is long man if needed, I think he is more valuable as a starter.
  10. jorgenswest
    Success in the postseason is really going to hinge on the Lopez, Gray and the starting line up and not the last roster spot or two that we will debate for pages. I have no idea how close Buxton is to being ready. I do know that no one has more upside and if anyone can be a difference maker in the last spot, it is Buxton. I think I would roll the dice with Buxton
  11. jorgenswest
    We can compare their age 23 seasons relative to league using wRC+. They both had a break out season splitting the time between AA and AAA. Miranda: AA 162, AAA 156 Severino: AA 139, AAA 100 The numbers were skewed higher this year so comparing raw numbers or rates between the two seasons will give the illusion hitters in AAA are better this year. It really is astonishing that Severino can put up an OPS of .831 in AAA and have a wRC+ of exactly league average. In Severino’s favor he was better prior to age 23. In Miranda’s favor he had a wRC+ of 116 as a major league regular at 24. I like them both and expect Miranda to return healthy next year. I also expect Severino to perform above league average AAA as he starts the season there and be ready to help mideseason if needed.
  12. jorgenswest
    Helman had a good season. His wRC+ in just over 100 plate appearances was 122. That ranks 108th among all AAA players with over 100 plate appearances. Most of those players are 40 man roster decisions. Prato when looking at his full season would have a combined wRC+ of around 120. I think every team has players like Helman that they really want to keep in the organization but don’t have a 40 man roster spot. Teams in need will be able to find them in minor league free agency as the Twins did Andrew Stevenson. They wouldn’t need to trade players who don’t need a 40 man spot to acquire them.
  13. jorgenswest
    I thought so too until I looked at the 8 wild card rosters from last year. Every team had at least 12 pitchers and some 13. They all held back a starter too. These are organizations that have gained respect like the Rays and Guardians. I would guess all teams sim the match up thousands of times and weigh the impact of the 15th batter or pinch runner vs. 12 or even 13 pitchers. For some reason no team went with less than 12 pitchers.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is possible but he has never hit for power. Coming into this season his best power numbers were 13 home runs in 542 plate appearances in 2019. His ISO that year was .160. He is not going to be fast. He is not a center fielder. He hasn’t shown much power. If he is limited to corner outfield wouldn’t it be foolish of the Twins not to try to tap into more power? Is there any other path towards Larnach making an impact in the major leagues? edit: I took a look and the numbers don’t support Gladden. Larnach’s pull percentage has been pretty constant low to mid 40s since his first year in pro ball. There are a lot of seasons split between levels but it looks like his highest pull percentage was when he joined the organization in 2018. If there is any change since his first year, he goes up the middle more now. Is it possible that Gladden is wrong?
  15. jorgenswest
    Too early to tell on Headrick also.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Saints pitching staff ranked third in the league according to ERA (ERA+ 113). The batters by OPS ranked in a three way tie for 4th to 6th (OPS+ 103). For much of the season we have heard great reports of their batters yet the pitchers have performed better relative to league. It could be that the pitchers are already on the 40 and we have already seen their struggles in the majors. We haven’t seen Helman or Prato or Camargo yet. That unknown might make them more intriguing than Woods-Richardson, Sands and Headrick who were also better than league average. Sands and Headrick are also 40 man considerations going the other direction.
  17. jorgenswest
    I guess I have a little more respect for the front offices if the 8 teams that played in the wild card last year.
  18. jorgenswest
    All 8 teams took at least 12 pitchers to the wild card round last year. Some took 13. I think there might be more value in the flexibility of the 9 man pen than a roster spot for Stevenson. Taking both Paddack and Funderburk has to be a consideration. That game 3 might turn into a bullpen game with some arms already having pitched in game 1 and 2.
  19. jorgenswest
    Concur. He has a 22nd percentile fastball. Velocity isn’t his road to being effective. He has missed bats thus far.
  20. jorgenswest
    There is a baseball reason to keep Gallo around. Now that he has served out his IL days, if the Twins need to they can add a player not on the 40 but in the organization to the playoff roster. For example if an injury were to knock a catcher out of the first series they could add Camargo as an injury replacement for Gallo who is on the IL. If Farmer is injured and they could add Lee or Martin as SS insurance. I think the Boras narrative about Gallo is nonsense.
  21. jorgenswest
    Is it possible the run scoring environment of AAA gives the impression that players are dominating? Andrew Stevenson had a wRC+ of 131. Was that dominating the league? Jake Cave was 172 in 275 plate appearances. I think that was dominating. Wallner(133) and Julien(139) are similar to Stevenson. Encouraging performances but not dominating. Julien only had 170 plate appearances there. He ranked 31st among all players with 150 or more PAs. Wallner ranked 49th. I don’t think a league would have that many dominating players. Looking at other players and their St. Paul rank Prato (153) led the team. It is hard to make sense of his very poor AA(58) numbers. Weight them together and it is close to 120 for the year. Larnach was fifth at 120. The next four were a little above average (104 to 108) in Williams, Celestino, Martin and Perez. I don’t see the dominant player the Twins missed out on based on performances relative to league. Royce Lewis in his 51 plate appearance was 183.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hadn’t considered utilizing Gray with flexibility based on the outcome of game 1. It is intriguing. I think I would still start Ober in game 1 of the next series. Lopez on short rest going up against a rested team ace doesn’t seem like a good plan. Send Ober against the ace and Lopez can still start 2 and 5 on normal rest.
  23. jorgenswest
    I first will acknowledge that any decision based on AAA stat lines is pretty unreliable. Given that, I would want to see at least 200 plate appearance of sustained 35% above league average over the current year and similar high previous performance at levels below AAA. That might force his way. Brooks Lee has performed 22% below league average in AAA and 20% above league average in a much longer AA stint this year. I should add that the converse is not true. The decision really should be made based on slash stats. They take so long to stabilize.
  24. jorgenswest
    His family is a priority to him. This is his last big contract. The balance of dollars and family will guide the decision much more so than a few games in October.
  25. jorgenswest
    Mine was all hindsight. I didn’t make those arguments at the deadline. I couldn’t see Funderburk helping or a home run prone Varland adding so much in relief. At the all star break I thought they should move on from Kepler and Pagán. Who would have though their greatest need heading into the last six games would be third base and shortstop? Looking at the results my assumptions were wrong. After the deadline they have been among the better teams in the AL. They have won many series where they couldn’t even put more than two together in the first 100 games. They had what they needed on the roster already to get better. I couldn’t see it. I can acknowledge the results though.
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