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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I agree about Jenkins. I would do the Julien deal also but I don’t think it is enough. Someone will offer a better player that isn’t a platoon player. I don’t think it can be fixed by adding marginal players to go with Julien.
  2. jorgenswest
    If getting the best young ready position player in a 1 for 1 deal is the Marlins goal, the only player the Twins have with a BTV value of Pasquantino is Lewis. The others are about 20% below his value. Of course it depends on the Marlins view but I assume it is very favorable of Pasquantino. If Julien is the best 1 for 1 the Twins have to offer, I think many teams can beat that deal starting with the Yankees and Volpe.
  3. jorgenswest
    In that case I would expect Luzardo to be moved. Someone will have a Pasquantino to offer. On the other hand, I probably don’t value Pasquantino as much as I should. His BTV value surprised me as it was comparable with Jenkins and Ryan. I would have guessed below Lee and Julien. Assuming the Marlins are looking for the best 1 for 1 and not a package of lesser players, would you trade Jenkins for him?
  4. jorgenswest
    Someone backed out on this deal or leaked the rumor. Is it possible the Marlins asked for more and then the Royals went the free agency route instead? The deal didn’t happen for some reason. Did the deal get leaked in hopes of getting other teams in on Luzardo?
  5. jorgenswest
    I think they will get better offers than those three. Once Yamamoto signs there will be some large market teams that lost out that would give up a lot for Luzardo. It would probably take two of Julien, Lee or Jeffers and a low level minor leaguer but I still don’t think that is enough to headline the deal. Other teams will send a better top player.
  6. jorgenswest
    Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.
  7. jorgenswest
    Priester would move in front of Festa, Woods-Richardson and maybe Varland in starting pitching depth list. Adding him might mean they can add Varland the the major league pen. They still need to add a veteran to the rotation.
  8. jorgenswest
    The third year of control is very expensive as it combines a lower Arb salary to go with the projected level of performance. I did some math on the surplus value of that third year in a different thread but it is equivalent to about 40% of his value. Essentially that third year of control for Luzardo is equivalent to the value of Jeffers. Is one year of Luzardo worth Jeffers? I think they are better off seeking pitchers with one or two years of control and then either extend them or take the comp pick.
  9. jorgenswest
    Alcala is getting old but Pressly didn’t make an all star game until age 30 and wasn’t very effective at 28. Hendriks at 30 and with his 8th team (two stops in Toronto) before his big step forward. I don’t think age is a worry. It is health. I would keep this talented arm on the 40 and make use of an option if necessary this year. Stewart is also often injured. They really need Sands to step up and give the good reliable low leverage work they were getting from Pagán. Even last year Pagán did not pitch well in high leverage but he was ready to pitch every day. Where will that readiness come from this year? I am hoping on Sands.
  10. jorgenswest
    https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-miranda-withdraws-from-world-baseball-classic
  11. jorgenswest
    I expect Ryan and Ober to take a step forward this year. I would trust them as much as I would have trusted Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray as a Ranger fan.
  12. jorgenswest
    That was my initial thought and then I looked at alternatives. Glasnow is projected for 3.8 WAR. His salary is 25 million which really helps. Think of that value as cash in the deal to avoid prospect cost. At 25M his surplus value is only 12.8. Festa can headline a deal at that level. At the end of the year Glasnow can be offered a qualifying offer with a comp pick in return. What are the alternatives? The prospect cost of a pitcher with three years of control projected at 3.8 WAR will be very high. Still using Glasnow as an example, he is project for 37.8 in value. Over three years that is 113.4. A player like this would likely just be entering their ARB years. That might be 35M over 3 years. The prospect cost for getting a similar pitcher with three years of control is 78.4. That would cost Lewis plus a little more or it could be Lee or Jenkins plus Julien to get there. I would rather trade a Festa each year than a Lewis every three years. It does have payroll implications but that is mostly year 1 when the three year player’s arb award is low. If Glasgow is a risk then go after Burnes or Bieber. Risks can be found in all. It is the concept of targeting players with one year of control every year that I am considering. The prospect cost is much lower and comp picks will come back.
  13. jorgenswest
    I was thinking yesterday about how expensive it is to buy those extra years of control. I wonder if targeting a pitcher with 1 year of control each year might be optimal. The Twins couldn’t put a package together to acquire someone Burnes two years ago but now it is feasible. Glasnow and Bieber are almost reasonable. They would constantly be trading out good but not their best prospects. They would get some resupply with comp picks. Why not trade Festa and Miranda (or Schobel) for Glasnow or Bieber and do it again next year and the year after?
  14. jorgenswest
    Miami already has Berti and he is a much better version of Farmer. I am sure they would like a clear upgrade for next year and I am not sure the Twins have that. Brooks Lee would fit in behind Berti ready to take over next season or earlier when he dominates AAA. I don’t see them having any need for Farmer.
  15. jorgenswest
    They traded Arraez and that third year of control in the Lopez deal. It might be the sweet spot for trading a player. Players have had enough time to drive up their trade value and they are now entering a phase where salaries escalate. The Twins bank the 10.3 WAR for little cost and then trade off that extra third year of control to get a lot more in return. In Luzardo’s case the 63.3 for the years is a 71% increase over the projected 38.7 for two years.
  16. jorgenswest
    I was thinking on the minors end where we took 4 and lost no one.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think the sweet spot is the pitcher with two years of control. That third year is very expensive since it will come at a low arb cost. Using BTV’s numbers Luzardo is expected to be worth 91.3 million in value over the next three years. He is expected to make 28 million in arbitration so his surplus is 63.3. A good deal of the surplus comes from that extra third year where he is projected to be awarded 5.9 million in arbitration. A year from now he will be expected 22.1 in salary left and have about 60.8 of his value left. His surplus value will have dropped nearly 25 million. The cost of that extra one season is close to Jeffers. I like Luzardo but that third year costs too much. I wouldn’t trade Jeffers or even Rodriguez for one season of Luzardo but that is essentially what they would be doing getting that third year of control.
  18. jorgenswest
    I wonder if not losing anyone is a sign that their system is not as strong. It is great not to lose anyone. Is it better to have so much depth that teams want the back end of that depth when they have to be left available?
  19. jorgenswest
    My other thought is… Let’s suppose they both have very good seasons in their contract years. I would think Verdugo’s age would make him a better bet to merit a qualifying offer adding possible value.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is comparable. They did lose a buyer in the Yankees. so the market has changed. If the Yankees liked Kepler better I am sure they connected with the Twins and tried to make the same/similar deal. It must not have been enough for the Twins.
  21. jorgenswest
    Number 1 has to be Jared Camp. They received Santana and 50000 for him At the close of the draft. Of course it is just silly to put Camp at number 1 instead of Santana. The Twins had the number 1 pick and could have taken anyone but why not get the extra cash? Santana was always their pick. That number 1 slot has to be Santana (or Camp if you must). Mack was a great pick but can anyone argue that he is worth more than Santana and 50K?
  22. jorgenswest
    It is @Doctor Gast’s thread. He put up a proposal and invited us to argue back. I jumped in a few times with a back and forth and got out. Not my thread. He listened to ideas of others, changed it up a bit and kept the argument going. I appreciate the thread and look forward to his next thread where we might not see eye to eye.
  23. jorgenswest
    I wonder if they are trying to go big on someone. If that is the case I don’t see them taking on Polanco or Kepler.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think playoff use showed who he valued. During the season it shifted to a 50/50 split. It is hard to argue with that when they were one of few teams that only needed two catchers on the season.
  25. jorgenswest
    Your work shows light on the need for depth. I think they need 3 pitchers. They will need to utilize options on a few listed to build the depth that will be needed. I would also utilize Miranda’s option and start him in AAA to get regular at bats. Gordon was a solid CF his second year and at this point they are thin there. I like the depth of Camargo, Martin, Lee, Larnach, Miranda and Severino in AAA. Additions don’t seem as necessary until Polanco or Kepler or Vazquez are dealt.
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