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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    DeSclafini and Bundy are very similar. We are hoping on DeSclafini’s good season two years ago. Did we forget that Bundy received Cy Young votes two years prior to joining the Twins? DeSclafini’s ERA last year was 4.88 after a good start. Bundy’s ERA with the Twins was 4.89 after a good start. They have similar strike out rates and walk rates. Is there a risk that the Twins will keep giving DeSclafini starts because they did not find a better alternative? Would this deal had been better if DeSclafini were not included?
  2. jorgenswest
    Agree. My point in the trade discussions was Seattle was not a good trade partner. They were looking to improve their rotation and not use it to trade for Polanco. They did need a 2B so they might be a good three team trade opportunity and maybe this will be a version of a three team trade. Move Polanco and his salary for a top 100 prospect. Trade off from top 100 prospects to get a starting pitcher.
  3. jorgenswest
    They say they are. They can show they are by using this money to pay for Burnes or Cease or Bieber while sending out the package of prospects.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think there is still a hole in the starting rotation. Polanco was the best asset to fill that hole and now the dollars and prospects are the best asset. If they end up with a short side platoon right handed bat and DeSclafini to fill the hole they are much worse off. They need to use the dollars to get starting pitching. Burnes has a salary they can more easily fit now. Burnes too costly in prospects? Go get Bieber. Want two years? Spend more in prospects and go get Cease? Fill that hole in the rotation.
  5. jorgenswest
    Is there still a hole in the starting rotation?
  6. jorgenswest
    Why would the Mariners trade use their best assets to trade for a package when they are contending? Nightingale reported that they were looking to improve their rotation with Cease. It just doesn’t make sense that they would go the other direction and trade from their starting 5. Contending teams need to come away with the best player in the deal not a package of lesser players, Seattle plans to contend.
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe for a minute that Seattle was trading starting pitching unless it was going to be one of the young arms for Dylan Cease. Seattle is setting their sights on contending. They don’t need to trade a good asset for a package of lesser assets that might include Polanco. Contending teams need to walk away with the best player in the deal. We might have gotten their interest in a swap of Lewis for Gilbert. Maybe they would part with Woo or Miller for Julien but it seems they are trying to use those young pitchers to improve their staff. If for some reason the Twins wanted DeSclafini the offer should have been Farmer or walk away.
  8. jorgenswest
    The 2024 Twins are not as good tonight as they were this morning.
  9. jorgenswest
    Posted this about SWR before I came to the minor league forum. It fits best here. Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches. I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?
  10. jorgenswest
    Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches. I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?
  11. jorgenswest
    Julien’s control has more value than one year of Burnes. There isn’t any question on that. Is value in whole the only consideration? Burnes’ one year can be more impactful. One year of Morris had great impact.
  12. jorgenswest
    Eno Sarris has Burnes ranked as the number 2 starting pitcher. That would be a huge upgrade. They wouldn’t have the prospect capital to get a pitcher of this caliber with multiple years of control. Those extra years are very expensive. Luzardo (ranked 34) has much more surplus value over 3 years and therefore more costly in trade but he would not be near the impact on the 2024 team. Take the one year. Trade Julien. Go for it.
  13. jorgenswest
    Is it important to have one or two slots that get shuttled through during the year to help with bullpen usage an injury? In that case might players of less importance be in those slots?
  14. jorgenswest
    Right now the Brewers have Burnes for this year and a good comp pick. If a team comes in a gets this deal done it is going to take a player like Julien. We can wait until midseason to try to do the deal. They might be more open to a package of a few prospects at that point if they aren’t contending. The Twins also won’t get a comp pick when Burnes leaves in free agency.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have been wondering about this lately. How true is it? How much trickier? If trades occur randomly in division trades would occur 4/29 or 13.8% of the time. How much less than 4/29 is it? The only significant in division trade I recall this winter is the Red Sox sending Vergugo to the Yankees. They do occur.
  16. jorgenswest
    Trade for 1 year of Burnes. Needs to be done before the season in order to make a qualifying offer and get a comp pick. It might take Julien for one year of Burnes and a comp pick.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Athletic reported the Twins were listed among teams impacted by age fraud with internationals signings from the Dominican Republic. No details about the players were included. Nor were there comments from the teams.
  18. jorgenswest
    Agree that they would try to trade both. Gordon’s contract is east to trade. Is Farmer’s?
  19. jorgenswest
    There is space for both. I prefer both to Farmer. None are a certainty that they will perform as we hope. Gordon’s salary is one the Twins have been comfortable to DFA if he can’t approach his 2022 season. Castro has an option left if last year was an outlier. Will they DFA Farmer’s contract if he declines? Last year looked like he had improved but it is mostly the illusion of going from a full time player t a platoon role where his weakness against right handed pitching was a smaller ratio of the overall data. If it isn’t a salary they will DFA I do hope they trade him before the season.
  20. jorgenswest
    Gordon is projected to be the better hitter of the utility options by ZIPs. He also has a career RAA of 0 at 2B and SS. After his first year in CF he put up an RAA of 0. He may not return from injury but has the highest upside bat of all of the CF bench options.
  21. jorgenswest
    No scouting for me. If games played at a position isn’t data nor are any hits or outs recorded. I haven’t seen any of it so it is all merely data. The last time I saw any significant play of Twins minor leagues was when Visalia was a Twin affiliate. Those early 1980s Oaks teams were a lot of fun.
  22. jorgenswest
    Agree. Since Keaschall didn’t start out at SS it seems less likely that he will stick at 2B. He has only played a partial season though so it will be interesting to see how they use him this year. If he starts getting more time in a corner I will think that is where he will land.
  23. jorgenswest
    The only data that is useful is seeing how a player is used by the team in the minors. Most second basemen in the majors played shortstop in the minors. When I see Spencer Steer start games occasionally at SS (48 in minors) I think they might be able to stick at 2B. It looks now like Steer is a corner player that will play mostly 1B/LF. I would have more confidence in someone likely Dozier who played a lot of SS in the minors. Pedroia began his minor league career as a SS. Altuve didn’t play SS in the minors but he also didn’t move around. Utility players like Castro almost always start at SS in the minors. Zobrist was a SS. Players that move around indicate to me that the team is trying to find a fit for them. I don’t think they are trying to develop a utility player. Julien bounced around in college and the minors. The Twins played Keaschall mostly at 2B. Their use of him the next year or two will be telling. Maybe he will be like Altuve and play almost exclusively at 2B. Then I would be confident he can stick there. If he starts bouncing around I will think they are looking for a spot for him to settle. I would not think utility player is a possibility without SS. Keaschall and Schobel may be on a similar path as Steer. They will need to get to the majors with their bats and those bats will have to be adequate enough to play a corner position.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Astros have two centerfielders and both hit right handed. Jake Meyers is entering his age 28 season and hasn’t hit yet. Nick Gordon has shown one good season and could be a better platoon fit with their outfield. Meyers has options left. Does this help either team?
  25. jorgenswest
    To add… ZIPs projects Gordon to have an OPS+ of 100. He had a 0 RAA in centerfield in 2022-2023 and a career 0 RAA at 2B and SS. I did cherry pick the CF and ignored his 2021 RAA when he was thrown out in CF without having played there previously. You would want a better bat from your starting LF and he would be exposed playing every day and facing left handed pitching but so many things near an average level has real value.
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